Daily Forex Price Action Commentary by The Forex Guy

[TheForexGuy]

The AUDUSD could give us a bounce to the upside from the 0.9242 level before it reaches the 0.9200 level from where there is a higher probability of a change in direction to the upside.

I've got a bearish bias on the AUDUSD at the moment. Price is now trading on the bearish side of the mean and closing under a level which needed to act as support if the upside momentum was to hold. So for now I am watch for sort opportunities.

Just a follow up on the GBPNZD situation...

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This bad boy has just broken out of consolidation , and breached a resistance containment line as price exploded into new highs. We've got a bullish bias on this chart now and are now targeting bullish price action signal that do develop to get in long with the fresh upward momentum.

The best play here is to wait for the market to weaken and re-test the old resistance level and let bullish price action confirm it as new support . This will create a new swing level, and it's here we should jump on any bullish signal that develops.

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As anticipated the GBPNZD market did retrace back into the hot spot we were watching and did prompt a strong bullish reaction from the market. The bullish move created a very strong bullish rejection candle. The close price was much higher than the open price, a nice feature for any bullish signal. Waiting for a retracement entry which probably won't get triggered until next week.

The Forex Guy

 

[TheForexGuy]

The AUDUSD could give us a bounce to the upside from the 0.9242 level before it reaches the 0.9200 level from where there is a higher probability of a change in direction to the upside.

I've got a bearish bias on the AUDUSD at the moment. Price is now trading on the bearish side of the mean and closing under a level which needed to act as support if the upside momentum was to hold. So for now I am watch for sort opportunities.

Just a follow up on the GBPNZD situation...

​

This bad boy has just broken out of consolidation , and breached a resistance containment line as price exploded into new highs. We've got a bullish bias on this chart now and are now targeting bullish price action signal that do develop to get in long with the fresh upward momentum.

The best play here is to wait for the market to weaken and re-test the old resistance level and let bullish price action confirm it as new support . This will create a new swing level, and it's here we should jump on any bullish signal that develops.

​

As anticipated the GBPNZD market did retrace back into the hot spot we were watching and did prompt a strong bullish reaction from the market. The bullish move created a very strong bullish rejection candle. The close price was much higher than the open price, a nice feature for any bullish signal. Waiting for a retracement entry which probably won't get triggered until next week.

The Forex Guy

 

[honeill]

Good analysis. I'll keep a close eye on GBPNZD.

 

[TheForexGuy]

Still optimistic that we will be able to grab an entry on this setup next week...

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Also looking at the AUD pairs which are breaking down into new lows.

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The old resistance level has failed to hold as support when price collapsed back down underneath it. An inside day signal has formed under the level in the form of a bearish rejection candle knocking back higher prices. Breakouts of the would be a nice trigger for short positions.

The Forex Guy

 

[fxstrategist]

The GBPUSD is still a long way from giving us a clear direction. There is a lot of volatility in this pair but no direction.

 

[TheForexGuy]

The GBPUSD is still a long way from giving us a clear direction. There is a lot of volatility in this pair but no direction.

The currency markets have been so slow and hard to trade due to the lack of volatility we've been seeing. Lots of pairs are producing hostile trading environments that we need to avoid until things pick up. The EURUSD is an absolute mess at the moment, I don't know how any trading system could cope with all that violent whipping up and down motion.

Some light at the end of the tunnel, looks like USDJPY is gearing up to move lower, producing a nice sell signal after the NFP release.

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Looking to take advantage of any retracements next week

The Forex Guy Price Action Trading

 

[TheForexGuy]

Going short via a bearish breakout trap and reverse price action signal on the GBPAUD daily chart.

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I have been very conservative with my trading due to the low liquidity/volatile trading environment the currency markets have been experiencing. It feels like forever since I've taken a trade.

The Forex Guy Price Action Trading Strategies

 

[honeill]

Good tip and excellent entry.

 

[TheForexGuy]

The AUDUSD got caught up in the recent frenzy of volatility in the August markets – bad news from China also was a catalyst for major AUD weakness. We’ve seen price scream through a major support level and crashing into the 70c area.

Since then, we’ve had a bit of bouncing around as price attempts to stabilize, nothing really reliable to trade.

Instead I am waiting for price to retrace back up and test a hot spot for bearish price action. The hot spot marked on the chart is the old major support level, when tested, if we see it acts as new resistance – this will be a strong sign the selling is going to continue and a good price area to enter as a bear.

This area also will co-inside with the mean value, which adds further value to the trade setup. Hopefully next week we will see a nice strong sell signal here.

- The Forex Guy

 

[TheForexGuy]

The USDCAD daily chart has started off this week with some pretty decisive price action.

We've watched the CAD bears drive the USDCAD up the chart for a few months now, but all good things eventually come to an end - this uptrend can't last forever. Is it time this market corrected?

Price has stalled under a resistance level, which can only be referenced back to levels way back in 2002 - because this market hasn't been in this territory for over 10 years.

A large bearish rejection candle is forming here on the daily chart, which a heavy bearish body. This gives the setup more bearish weight and increases the chances of continued selling here.

For those who are interested, we can look to grab a retracement entry tomorrow.

- The Forex Guy