Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №60 from 08/08/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The industrial production fell by 1.4% m/m while the growth was expected by 0.4%. In annual terms the industrial production is showing an increase by 0.6%. Exports fell as well as import. The exports reduction may be explained by the production prices decline. Due to the imports decline the trade balance rose up to 24 billion euros. The traders were cautious ahead of the US employment official report for July.

The United States released the non-farm payrolls, the data were in the red zone - 215K, while we waited 223K. Earlier, there was 231K.

Trading recommendations

The rate dynamics will show a negative development in the short term. The level of 1.0900 breakthrough will allow bears to decline towards 1.0800.


Pound

The Central Bank Governor Mark Carney was pessimistic about the inflation prospects (zero inflation may be continued for two months). After this information output the pound has fallen. Later, the US jobless claims have left the pound no chance of recovery - the weekly report showed 270K against the expected 273K jobless claims. The July UK GDP forecast from NIESR was 0.7% as it was in June.

Trading recommendations

The pair may show a negative development in the short term. If the pair reaches the level of 1.5400 and breaks it through, then it will open the way to the mark of 1.5325.


Yen

The Bank of Japan did not surprise us with the monetary policy easing at its Friday meeting at the end of the week. As expected, the Bank of Japan said it would continue to buy government bonds in each year up to 80 trillion yen. The consumer prices negative growth rates may affect the Japanese economy weakening, the goods high stocks as well as the China growth slowdown.

Meanwhile, the dollar has strengthened after the USA news releases on Friday while the non-farm payrolls figures came in below expectations: 215000 instead of 223000. The unemployment rate - 5.3% as expected has not been changed since last month.

Trading recommendations

The pair may show the positive dynamics development in the short term. If the pair reaches the level of 125.00 and breaks it through, it will open the way to the mark of 125.80.


Gold

The gold resumed its decline amid the dollar growth on the eve of the US labor market publication. The main Friday event was the July US employment data. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector was forecasted an average 220 thousand - 225 thousand against 223 thousand in June. The data came out at the level of 215 thousand. Unemployment was expected to reach the level of 5.3%, the average hourly wage was forecasted with an increase by 0.2%. These data came out at the level of the forecasted medians. However the gold increased by the end of the trades.

Trading recommendations

We expect the precious metal negative dynamics development. If the pair reaches the level of 1090.00 and breaks it through that may open the way towards 1075.00.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №61 from 14/08/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


GBP/USD opened trades at 1.5482 on Monday after significant losses of the end of the previous week when 9 out of 10 MPC members voted to keep the interest rate unchanged, which was followed by solid Non-Farm Payrolls data from the US. The downfall of sterling in July was mostly driven by technical correction as Great Britain continues to keep a strong and steady growth pace comparing to other developed economies. Since the beginning of this week, cable was erasing losses climbing up to the current price level close to 1.5637. On Monday, GBP was supported by the UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor data coming out in green colour. This was followed by the Average earnings data on Wednesday, which was slightly lower than expected. The unemployment rate was in line with the forecast of 5.6%, while RICS House Price Balance was two per cent higher than predicted, at 44%. Next week, investors are viewing British CPI and Retail Sales data.

GBP/USD (H4; August 14, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Since the end of June, GBP/USD was trading in the corridor between 1.5690 and 1.5466 creating a “flag” formation, which is a currently continuing consolidation after the rise that took place in spring. The market sentiment is mostly bullish for this instrument, so breaking through the resistance level at 1.5690 can give an early strong indication of bulls gaining momentum.

NZD/USD was heading down this week after market opening at 0.6612 on Monday. Despite the broad recovery of Kiwi on Wednesday amid weaker dollar, the pair’s downfall was mostly driven by devaluation of yuan. Meanwhile, data from New Zealand showed that electronic card retail sales did not reach the expectations of 0.5% coming out at 0.4% this month. The Food price index was also in red colour. At the end of the week, Retail Sales data showed disappointing numbers coming out at 0.1% below the 0.5% expected. Next week the market is waiting for external migration details from New Zealand.

NZD/USD (D1; August 14, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Technically, NZD/USD is trading close to lows of May 2010 – 0.6560, which currently serves as the key support level being tested.The RSI indicator also suggests that the pair is well oversold, but lack of upbeat fundamental data from New Zealand and strengthening dollar might push the pair even lower, in which case there will be much more space for falling than there is now, bearing in mind the Fed rate hike talks and current situation in China. The best tactic would be to catch intraday fluctuations for smaller profit while watching the key support levels for indications of further weakening.


EUR/USD broke through the 1.10 level this week rising from July lows of 1.0808. The single currency was mostly supported by mid-week plunge of the dollar and Athens reaching the agreement on the multiyear bailout plan with the creditors. Euro zone ZEW Economic Sentiment was out at 47.6 beating the expectations of 43.9, while Industrial Production contracted by 0.4%. The euro zone CPI matched the forecast of 0.2% while European GDP data showed 1.2% annual growth pace, 0.1% lower than expected. European Current Account and Consumer Confidence numbers are published next week, so the market is waiting to see the numbers.

EUR/USD (H4; August 14, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
As of writing the pair is trading at 1.1144 and a break below 1.1000 (psychological level) would target 1.0961 (low Aug.11) en route to 1.0855. On the upside, the initial up-barrier is located at 1.1190 (high Aug.13) ahead of 1.1215 (high Aug.12) and finally 1.1244 (high Jun.30).


USD/CAD was broadly down this week falling below the previous key support level located at 1.3063, which subsequently became the resistance level. Technically, the rise of two previous weeks might be taken as a bullish trap if prices start falling more actively. Canadian Housing Starts were lower than expected in July, while New House Price Index rose 0.3% in June, beating the forecast of 0.1%.On Friday, Manufacturing Sales in Canada missed the expectations coming out at 1.2% and pulling USD/CAD back above 1.3063. Next week will bring volatility with important data from Canada and the US coming out simultaneously including US Building Permits, Core CPI, Existing Home Sales and Canadian Wholesale Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales.

USD/CAD (D1; August 14, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The fundamental data needs to be closely watched as the pair is trading near to a key resistance level of 1.3063 with a strong breakthrough potential. Overall forecast is bullish ahead of the possible rate hike in September, although recent mixed data from Canada does not give indications of weakening economy in this quarter. Passing the 1.3212level is a strong bullish sign, while falling below 1.2920 might be taken as a signal for opening a medium-term short position.


USD/JPY was rising this week after opening trades at 123.78 on Monday. The Bank of Japan saw some members question the sustained impact of aggressive easing on the pace of yen weakening and inflation expectations in the Wednesday release of the July minutes. The BoJ held policy steady at its latest meeting. Japanese current account reading was in red colour this week coming out at 0.559T, while Bank Lending rose 2.6%. Household confidence was also lower than expected. On the other hand, Industrial production and Tertiary Industry Activity Index have beaten the expectations of experts. Next week, Japanese GDP is due together with Trade Balance data.

USD/JPY (W1; August 14,2015)

Trade guidelines:
The expectations for next week are mostly bullish. In terms of technical levels, resistances can be found at 125.27 (highs of August 12) and 125.66 (highs of June 8). Having passed those levels, the pair might test the 125.85 level.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №62 from 22/08/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD opened trades at 1.5653 this week and moved down on Monday amid absence of significant data from UK and stronger greenback. However, British CPI and PPI data, which was published on Tuesday, indicated that Britain made one more step away from the risky deflationary zone. The bullish move also continued on Wednesday. Although, the cable eased a little bit on Thursday after slower growth of retail sales in July was announced. On Friday new highs of the months were tested as pound rose to 1.5722, but subsequently came back below 1.5690.Next week, investors will be watching Nationwide HPI, Business Investment and GDP figures from Great Britain.

GBP/USD (H4; 22 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Overall, each day of this week, the pair was testing the key resistance level of its current consolidation corridor between 1.5467 and 1.5690. As previously noted, the consolidation has been developing since June after considerable gains achieved in spring, forming a “flag” figure, which suggests opening long-term “buy” positions if the pair passes the 1.5770 level. The bullish expectations prevail for this instrument as UK continues to be one of the most quickly-growing states among developed economies.



EUR/USD opened trades at 1.1115 on Monday after breaking through the psychological 1.10 level last week. For the first two days of the week, the single currency was moving down ahead of FOMC minutes publication on Wednesday. However, having not received any clear indications on the rate hike timing from the Federal Reserve, the market reacted by putting greenback under pressure and letting EUR rise above 1.1285. On the other hand, European data was mostly upbeat with current account figures being higher than expected andPMI numbers coming out in green light.Next week, the market is waiting to know the euro zone’s M3 money supply, but a block of less important economic news will be also published next Friday.

EUR/USD (D1; 22 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
In terms of technical levels, resistance can be found at 1.1314. Having passed this level, the pair will most likely move towards 1.1370. The support is seen at 1.1119. Please bear in mind that next week will bring considerable volatility to the market as US GDP is published after series of other important news such as Core Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and CB Consumer Confidence.


NZD/USD might be slowing down after a three-month free fallconstantly meeting support at 0.65 this month. Despite the downturn in New Zealand employment and falling commodity prices, the fact that Russia lifted its ban on NZ dairy products gives hope to the farming sector, which is a significant part of the country’s economy. The PPI came in green for the first time in a year at -0.3%. We have also recently seen the average earnings rise at an annualized 2.8% pace, while wage inflation saw a healthy 1.6% year-over-year gain.Next week will be important for NZD/USD price action development, as NZ Trade Balance data is published together with Construction Work Done details, not to mention the US GDP.


NZD/USD (W1; 22 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
New Zealand dollar has been trapped inside a descending triangle chart pattern right above the key support level at 0.65. This is a clearly bearish sign, as descending triangle is a continuation pattern. Accordingly, breaking below the 0.65 level would open up new horizons for the pair to fall – 0.62 level (the lows of 2009).


USD/CAD was trading close to the key support/resistance level at 1.3063 without any indication of a trend developing in any direction.This week’s data from Canada showed increase in Foreign Securities Purchases and Wholesale Sales rising at 1.3% pace versus 1% expectations. Core CPI and Retail sales data also came out in green colour. Next week, the market is expecting Canadian IPPI and RMPI data. The rate hike expectations in the US prevail in the market, so chances are the pair will aim even higher next week.

USD/CAD (D1; 22 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The market expectations are mostly bullish with the price target set at 1.32 level. However, we might see some correction developing before bulls gain momentum. The forecast for next week is firstly easing to 1.2850 where the support will be found and bouncing back above 1.30. Breaking through 1.32 would suggest placing longer-term ”buy” orders.


AUD/USD was lowering even further this week after opening trades at 0.7373 on Monday morning. The downbeat testimony on aussie received from RBA governor Glenn Stevens sent the pair down on Tuesday as it was said that AUD depreciation is “both likely and necessary”. The new motor vehicle sales were lower at -1.3%.Next week, data from Australia is expected including Building, Plant/Machinery, and Private New Capital Expenditures. The Chinese economy slowing down is another major factor to consider in trading, so fundamental data from this country need to be closely watched as well.

AUD/USD (W1; 22 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The moving Averages suggest the bearish trend isn’t over with current target at 0.7150. The pair might be driven to this level by the Fed rate hike decision in September (if it happens in September), as well as by further development of Chinese market situation. So far, AUD/USD has been staying within the bearish trend channel, even though we have seen some upside. As long as AUD stays in between the upper and lower trend lines, the forecasts are bearish.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №63 from 29/08/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD opened trades at 1.5680 this week and immediately started rising as concerns over Chinese recession weakened the greenback and caused super-volatile day for the financial markets. The pair reached as high as 1.5802 before the first correctional move was seen. For the rest of the week, the cable was erasing gains and has passed even the formerly strong support level at 1.5425. In terms of fundamental data, the BBA Mortgage approvals were out in line with expectations at 46.0K, CBI Distributive Survey data was out in green colour at 24 versus 18 expected, Nationwide HPI showed positive reading of 3.2% growth in August and GDP numbers were in line with expectations at 2.6% YoY. Next week, data is expected from UK including Manufacturing and Construction PMI, as well as services PMI. The United Kingdom is one of the few economies that may be actually looking at a rate hike in the not-too-distant future, which is another point to consider in making forecasts of the currency’s valuation.

GBP/USD (D1; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Last week, the pair was trading close to 1.5690 resistance level eventually passing through above 1.57, indicating that bullish trend was about to start forming in the nearest future. However, the volatility of this week led the cable even below the previous consolidation in between 1.5690 and 1.5425. The expectations are bullish with target set at 1.56 for the next week, but beware of higher volatility.



EUR/USD opened trades at 1.1376on Monday and was unexpectedly driven higher to 1.1713asinvestors concerned about the collapse of the Chinese Stock Exchange chose the single currency as safe heaven, if even for a short period of time.The economic data showed German GDP was out in line with expectations. American data was mostly positive with CB Consumer Confidence at 101.5 versus 93.4 expected, New Home Sales missing the expectations by only 3K, Core Durable Goods Orders growing at a steady pace of 0.6%, Crude Oil inventories coming out in green colour and GDP showing steady growth. Next week, Euro zone publishes its CPI, PMI and unemployment rate data as well as retail sales numbers. The interest rate decision is likely to give the market a higher degree of volatility. On the US side, investors will be looking at ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Payrolls.

EUR/USD (D1; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The pair is currently trading at 1.1296 after reaching its eight month highs on Monday at 1.1713. The forthcoming week promises to be no less volatile, but expectations remain slightly bullish, if not neutral. The pair might find support at 1.1116 and resistance at 1.1360.


NZD/USD was giving technical signs of consolidation constantly meeting with support at 0.65 until the beginning of this week, when the pair was harshly affected by the drop of Shanghai Composite Index. China is a crucial trade partner of NZ, so the Kiwi suffered severe losses together with other commodity currencies. This week’s data showed the Inflation Expectations were out in line with the forecast and Trade Balance deficit contracted more than expected. Next week will provide details on NZ Terms of Trade Index reading and Building Consents data.

NZD/USD (H4; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD broke through the key support level at 0.65, which opened up even more space for further decline. According to the most pessimistic opinion, the new target for this pair might be located as low as 0.62. However, as the time is coming close to September, there are many doubtful comments on the Fed rate hike decision, which eventually might be postponed to December. This will obviously support the NZD. The expectations are bearish for the next week, however, the pair might find resistance at 0.65 before falling lower. The target for next week is 0.6320.


USD/CAD reacted to the Monday news by immediately reaching its previous target at 1.32. Without much data from Canada, the pair mostly followed the moves of Shanghai Composite Index (in the morning) and the swings of the greenback (in the evening). However, the pair didn’t erase its gains as much as other currency pairs did, currently trading close to 1.32 level. Next week, investors are viewing Canada’s GDP, Trade Balance and Labor market data, which is likely to give us some very interesting moves on Friday after US Non-Farm Payrolls data publishing.

USD/CAD (D1; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Technically, the loonie has reached its previous target at 1.32 opening up new space for further rise. The 1.3390 level is now in the major point of attention. On the downside, 1.29 level will provide strong support in case we see unexpectedly disappointing data from US. The moving averages are pointing upwards, but the corridor has not been formed yet, so bearish correction is possible.


USD/JPY was sent as low as 116.19 when investors turned their attention to Japanese bonds amid the situation in China. However, strong yen is not good for the Japanese economy as it diminishes the competitiveness of its global exports. On Wednesday, Bank of Japan governor said that the country will contribute to raising the growth potential of the economy through Quantitative Easing, which weakened yen in a matter of minutes sending USD/JPY back to 121.10 level with subsequent consolidation at 120.85. On Friday, the Japanese data was mixed:National CPI reading was flat versus negative figure expectations, while household spending rose modestly 0.6%. Retail sales data was positive with 1.6% growth figure. Next week, economists are waiting for Japanese Industrial production, Capital Spending and overtime pay data.

USD/JPY (D1; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Ignoring the spike that occurred earlier in the week, the quick recovery of USD/JPY points out to the fact that the currency is likely to remain trading above 120.00, as Bank of Japan remains committed to keeping the currency weak. The expectations are neutral, however, we might see a little bit of the upside at 121.53.In our opinion, intraday tactics will prove to be the most winning


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №64 from 05/09/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD This week was rather negative for the pound, which showed a considerable decline since opening trades at 1.5406 on Monday. Percentage wise, GBP/USD did show the expected change in price, although in the direction opposite to the one forecasted by analysts. On Monday, the cable’s decline was stipulated by stronger dollar, but negative Manufacturing PMI data of Tuesday did not support the pair either, sending it as low as 1.53. The Construction PMI was also lower on Wednesday, and Services PMI numbers came out in red light on Thursday, too. Eventually, the pair end up trading at 1.5245, almost 6 figures lower than the highs of the previous week. Next week, data is expected from UK, including BRC Retail Sales Monitor, Manufacturing and Industrial Production, Trade Balance and interest rate decision. Extremely high volatility is expected on Thursday and Friday next week.


GBP/USD (D1; September 5 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Taking into consideration bearish movements of this week, it is clear that market will be expecting to see some correction very shortly. While it is unlikely that interest rate will be changed next week, the ratio of MPC member votes will be very important for the direction of GBP. It is expected that the pair will aim to recover its positions and return to its previous consolidation corridor in between 1.5425 and 1.5690in September. Talking long term trades, it seems as a very advantageous time to open long positionsnow with target set at 1.58 for when MPC actually raises the interest rate next year.



EUR/USD stayed within its consolidation between 1.1156 and 1.1330 after opening trades at 1.1174 on Monday, but Friday showed a considerable decline to 1.1174 level.Data showed positive CPI dynamics in euro zone, after which we saw a great contraction of German Unemployment and EU unemployment in whole. However, Manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected at 52.2 versus forecasts of 52.4. The PPI data was in line with expectations while Services PPI and Markit Composite PMI came out in green light. Retail Sales were also higher than expected. The Eurogroup meeting is scheduled for next Friday, so the outcome and any comments from theofficialswill be closely watched by investors.

EUR/USD (D1; September 5 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The forecastsfor EUR/USD are mostly bearish in view of few factors. Firstly, it is the inflation expectations in Euro Zone. As was previously stated by European Commission officials, the inflation targets can possibly be missed in view of lower commodity prices. Subsequently, this can lead to adopting further QE measures, which will push the single currency lower. On the US side, the expectations of a rate hike still prevail – it is only the timing that is not clear. By the end of this year, experts are again expecting the parity. In medium term, opening short positions with take profit level at 1.09 seems to be a viable option.


NZD/USD started losing ground on Monday amid strengthening of the greenback despite higher than expected Building Consents number. This week, data from New Zealand also suggested that Terms of Trade Index was higher than expected in the second quarter at 1.3%, while Private Sector Credit rose 0.6%, higher than anticipated. The pair was supported on Thursday when the attention point returned from Chinese turmoil back to the US side. Next week, investors are viewing NZ Current Account and Interest Rate decision, which, can possibly be lowered. The pair is currently trading at 0.6373.

NZD/USD (H4; September 5 2015)

Trade guidelines:
After previously breaking through the strong support level at 0.65 level, the pair set its next target at 0.6196 (lows of July 2009). Both fundamental and technical data indicate there is still much space for decline with moving averages pointing down. QE implementation in NZ is also possible at the end of this year. The main points of attention are Chinese economy growth, Interes rate decision in the US and NZ fundamental data.


USD/CAD started forming its bullish trend in the beginning of April and the pair did not break out of the corridor even once since then. Moreover, the most recent developments show that bearish activity is forming somewhat a narrower trend corridor close to the current resistance level, which indicates a high likelihood of sharp rise in the near future. Canadian data was mixed with current account deficit widening even more than expected, GDP growing by 0.5% in the second quarter, and Trade Balance deficit contracting almost twice more than expected with 0.59B figure against -1.30B forecast.

USD/CAD (D1; September 5 2015)

Trade guidelines:
After passing the previous target of 1.32, the pair was expected to soar even more rapidly to the next target at 1.3420. However, this week showed a more modest growth pace. The forecasts remain bullish for the long term, and the current target might be reached as soon as next week, according to the technical data. Support might be found at 1.3122. Moreover, the RSI indicator suggests the “overbought” zone has not yet been reached, which means market can open with a gap on Monday, so beware of the sharp moves.


AUD/USD opened trades at 0.7153 and was moving down for the rest of the week reaching the psychological level of 0.70 and even falling lower to 0.6982 on Wednesday. The Australian data was mostly negative as ANZ Business Confidence was down 29.1% in August, Current Account deficit widened more than expected, GDP did not show the anticipated growth pace and retail sales volumes contracted 0.1%. On the US side, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came out in red light, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change was lower than predicted and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, on the other side,showed robust growth in August. Next week, data is expected including Chinese Caixin Services PMI, NAB Business Confidence, Australian Home Loans, employment data from Australia and Chinese CPI.

AUD/USD (D1; September 5 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Talking of AUD, there have not been any major changes to the expectations both in the long and medium terms. The pair continues its downfall within the boundaries of its moving averages, while there is no support seen for the pair in terms of Australian fundamental data. The new target is set at 0.6873, which might be reached in course of two following weeks. On the upside, the pair might see some resistance at 0.7064, from where the bearish move will continue.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №65 from 12/09/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD As forecasted by our analysts, the pound was in the recovery mode this week after opening trades at 1.5176 level. On Monday, the cable gained as many as 96 points, which was followed by a rise of 120 points on Tuesday. Although, GBP/USD suffered losses on Wednesday, when disappointing data indicated contraction of British Industrial Production by 0.4%. Meanwhile, manufacturing production was down as much as 0.8% and Trade Balance deficit widened more than expected. On Thursday, the outcome of BoE MPC meeting showed the ratio of votes on interest rate has not changed since the last month: 8 to 1. Next week, data is expected from the United Kingdom, including CPI, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales.

GBP/USD (D1; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Looking from the technical perspective, the pound has returned to the previous consolidation corridor in between 1.5425 and 1.5690. It is expected that fundamental data will act as the main catalyst for the breakthrough above 1.55 to continue the bullish trend. The main focus remains on the US side, where interest rate decision is long awaited.



EUR/USD was higher this week after opening trades at 1.1146 on Monday. Tuesday GDP figures came out in green colour exceeding the expectations of experts by 0.1% QoQ and by 0.3% YoY. Germany continued to show stable economy data with Trade Balance proficit at 22.8B. The Eurogroup meeting is taking place today, while next week will provide additional information on the euro zone economy: Labor Market Data, Trade Balance, CPI and Current account reading. On the US side, the market is looking at retails sales, Core CPI, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Fed Interest Rate decision.

EUR/USD (D1; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The forecasts for EUR/USD are mostly bearish in view of the possibility of a rate hike in the US. Currently, the pair is seeing support in 1.0820 area and resistance at 1.1350, but experts are expecting the parity with the US dollar as soon as 2016. The comments from ECB officials indicated that euro zone easing program will be further implemented in view of concerns over lower than desired inflation growth rate, which will also affect the single currency in the negative way.


NZD/USD was slightly lower on Monday after the market opened trades close to 0.6285 area. However, the interest in riskier assets was heated up on Wednesday amid rumors of China introducing additional easing measures to support its economy, which sent the pair higher to 0.6421. The recovery did not last long, as RBNZ cut its interest rate on Thursday to 2.75% from the previous 3%. The market reacted by revaluing NZD/USD at 0.6254 level despite the positive data on electronic card retail sales. Next week, economic data from New Zealand consists of the current account and GDP.


NZD/USD (H4; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
While it is expected that NZ GDP will not exceed the growth rate of the previous year, main point of attention is seen as the situation in the Chinese markets. The economic data from China will be published next week including Industrial production, retail sales and house prices. The expectations are mostly negative, especially in case of strengthening of the US dollar. The pair’s new target is set at 0.6160, which might be reached as soon as next week. On the upside, we might see the pair testing 0.64 level, which will be followed by a sharp decline shortly after.


USD/CAD continued forming its consolidation close to the upper resistance level of the bullish trend, which started forming back in the beginning of April. Current consolidation is a clear indication of the fact that loonie will continue weakening against its US counterpart. This week, Canada showed some robust economic data with Housing starts exceeding expectations of experts by almost 27 thousand, while Building permits number contracted by just 0.6% versus 5 percent expected. However, Capacity Utilization Rate and New housing price index were lower in red colour. Next week, investors are viewing the manufacturing sales and Foreign securities purchases, as well as Core CPI data.

USD/CAD (D1; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
1.3106 has proved to be a reliable support level, however, the pair has already risen way more to its current 1.3254 level, where the consolidation is taking place. It is highly unlikely that any prolonged strengthening will be observed in loonie, as it is well possible for the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The fundamental data from Canada was mixed last month, so it is also possible for the pair to continue its consolidation. It would be reasonable to place buy stop orders just above 1.33 while benefiting from intraday moves in this pair until we see further developments.


AUD/USD was rising from its six-year lows this week currently trading at 0.7071. The market opened at 0.6917 on Monday, but demand for riskier assets, which was heated by the comments from Chinese officials, sent the pair higher. In terms of fundamental data, Australia did quite good this week with NAB Business confidence coming out at 1 versus 0 expected, while Labor market data also being impressive. On the other hand, Australian Home loans and Westpac consumer Sentiment were lower than expected. Next week, the market expects data on new motor vehicles sales.

AUD/USD (D1; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Looking from technical perspective, the moving averages are still pointing down without intersections and even with the recent rise, the expectations remain bearish as there are plenty of fundamental reasons for the pair to continue falling, including Chinese economy slowing down, low oil prices and interest rate hike in the US.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №66 from 19/09/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD opened trades on 1.5429 level on Monday, which was followed by a very choppy and volatile trading week. The British jobs market seems to finally have gotten on the recovery path. Employment data is up with Average Earnings Index showing 2.9% growth in July, which is a very healthy reading. Meanwhile, there are signs that productivity (the big missing element of the UK's recovery so far) is also improving. The number of people employed rose by 42,000 in the second quarter and the employment rate (the percentage of people in work) is at a record high of 73.5%. Despite inflation remaining very low and despite a high chance it will turn negative again in the coming months, there is no reason at the moment to worry about a period of bad inflation. The British CPI was flat this month after modest 0.1% growth in the previous month. Next week, there is no significant data expected from the UK.

GBP/USD (D1; 19 September 2015)

Trade guidelines:
GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5627 with immediate resistance at 1.5683. Despite the weakness in the USD, cable had hard time rising above 1.56 level, so next week we might see some flat trading. Although, having risen above 1.57, the pair is likely to test 1.5767 level. The market did not take the dovish tones of Fed very well, so speculations over interest rate hike in the UK by BOE might cause very high volatility.



EUR/USD opened trades at 1.1330 level on Monday and was able to increase its gains to pass 1.14. This week was highly talked about in anticipation of a possible rate hike in the US. Retail sales from the states came in lower than expected Tuesday morning, while overall U.S. consumer spending appeared to grow at a fairly steady pace in August. USD rose briefly amid the news, which only shows how optimistic the traders are about the greenback. Core CPI was out in line with expectations and the number of issued building permits was higher than expected at 1.170M. Meanwhile, euro zone provided mixed signals as German ZEW economic sentiment was out lower than expected on Tuesday – way below estimates and lower than August numbers. However the employment change and trade balance came in positive. Next week, data is expected including Manufacturing PMI of euro zone and the US, New home sales and GDP figures from the US.

EUR/USD (D1; 19 September 2015)

Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD is back to the long term price range after the volatile trades of August. Trading just above 1.14, the pair showed some gains amid Fed leaving the interest rates at their lowest ever. However, the Thursday gains are not likely to remain there for a long period of time, so we are expecting the single currency to move down to its comfortable level of 1.1320.


NZD/USD was confidently rising this week, except for Thursday, when the pair lost its positions as markets were in anticipation of the Fed Policy meeting outcome while NZ GDP was lower than expected at 0.4%. However, we saw steady price growth from 0.6313, where the market opened on Monday, to the current level of 0.6417. NZ Current Account was out in green colour at -.122B versus expectations of deficit widening to -1.50B. Next week’s data includes External Migration and Visitors right before the Trade Balance data.

NZD/USD (D1; 19 September 2015)

Trade guidelines:
0.65 level continues to be a a massive resistance barrier that the market simply cannot get above at the moment. With this, we believe that short-term rallies will continue to offer selling opportunities in this market. There is no point in buying this pair at the moment, and we believe that sooner or later there will be a significant fall, On the other hand, if the pair breaks above the 0.65 level, then we can start to expect a bit of a trend change.


USD/CAD closed slightly lower last week as buyers reduced positions ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy announcement on September 17. Falling oil prices probably had the biggest impact on the Canadian Dollar recently. On Tuesday, US Core retail Sales figures supported the loonie and Wednesday was another opportunity for CAD to gain ground amid American data in red and Canadian Manufacturing Sales rising 1.7% versus 1% expected by analysts. Not to mention the unchanged interest rate in the US, much uncertainty was coming from inside the Fed that would like to see long-term inflation reach its targeted goal of 2% before it lifts its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2006. This caused even further fall of USD/CAD on Friday, to its current 1.3065. Next week’s data consists of Canadian Core Retail Sales and the US economic data.

USD/CAD (D1; 19 September 2015)

Trade guidelines:
USD/CAD is expected to continue its long-term rising trend and the target is set at 1.35 level. However, the decline of this week will find support just at 1.30, which proved to be a great resistance level in the past, so is very likely to be as supportive now. Overall, it is a great time to open long-term “buy” positions, as no additional contractions are expected ahead of this bullish trend developing further.


AUD/USD was a heavy gainer soaring above the 0.72 level after the Fed decision. The Australian dollar rose to a four-week high earlier this morning after the US Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates on hold, citing weak global conditions as one of the main reasons behind the decision. Investors around the world expected that September would be the month the Fed would finally increase interest rates. Instead, the decision of not changing the current policy caused a drag up in many pairs including AUD/USD. While American economy remains in the recovery mode, Australia is facing a high unemployment rate, falling commodity prices and the ongoing slowdown in China. Investors will place their positions accordingly as it is clear the pair is heading down. Next week, House Price Index numbers are announced.

AUD/USD (D1; 19 September 2015)

Trade guidelines:
AUD/USD first resistance is located at 0.7265, which presents great opportunities for selling. The market is more than likely to show more bearish pressure and below the bottom of yesterday’s range we will start looking at the next 0.70 target.

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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №67 from 26/09/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD opened trades at 1.5522 on Monday and by now has reached its 1.5223 level, down 30 points. There was bad news for the cable earlier this week when the latest UK government borrowing numbers were reported at an above-expected level. The August statistics revealed Public Sector Net Borrowing of 12.1B last month – over 10% up from the August 2014 figure. The Office of National Statistics, which published the number, explained that increase in borrowing was driven by decreased income tax revenues. Meanwhile, BBA Mortgage approvals were higher at 46.7K. Next week, the expected data from UK includes M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, GDP numbers, Manufacturing and Construction PMIs.

GBP/USD (D1; September 26 2015)

Trade guidelines:
On the bullish side for those looking for good reversal points, support at 1.5200, 1.5184 and 1.5089 could provide a bottom, which the pair will bounce from to reach its target at 1.5287, 1.5308, and then 1.5410. On the short side, risk management will be more difficult as the volatile moves of the past four trading days have left little resistance for stop placement. The general outlook is bearish in mid-term in view of the strengthening seen in dollar and a possible rate hike delay by BoE.



EUR/USD opened trades at 1.1286 on Monday and was moving down in the first half of the week amid lower Consumer Confidence report and weak PMI data from Europe. However, hawkish comments from ECB president M. Draghi subsequently pushed the single currency higher. Draghi informed the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament that slowing growth in emerging markets and the high value of the euro and falling commodities all prices are already factors frustrated expectations to enhance its purchase asset program, but that there is a need to determine whether these factors have a lasting impact. On the US side, there were also hawkish comments from J. Yellen, which helped the greenback to appreciate, pushing the euro down to where it is now – 1.1126.

EUR/USD (D1; September 26 2015)

Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD consolidated in a range between 1.1298 and 1.1104. The intraday technical picture for the pair is bullish, as we see the price moving close to the anticipated support level close to 1.11. However, our forecast for the week ahead is mostly bearish, especially if the US GDP, reported later today is in green colour. We are expecting that euro zone inflation data of next week will be lower than expected as falling commodity prices and general economy outlook seem grimmer. This can eventually push the price lower to the 1.0980 area.


NZD/USD struggled last week after GDP report showed the New Zealand economy grew slower than expected. However, the pair was able to recover after the Fed passed on an interest rate hike. Although, this week started with heavy losses as investors were going long on the US dollar after the greenback’s initial fall. This was followed by wider than expected N.Z. Trade Balance deficit data, which pushed the pair even lower. On Thursday, Fed chair J. Yellen provided strong indications that most of her colleagues will support the interest rate hike decision, which caused the USD price to rally. Next week, data is expected from New Zealand including Building Consents, ANZ Business Confidence and Private Sector Credit.

NZD/USD (D1; 26 сентября 2015)

Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD tried to fall during the course of the day on Thursday, but turned back around to form a relatively positive candle. There is a massive amount of resistance above 0.6393, so at this point there is no interest in buying this asset. Contrary, we believe that any candle above this level will simply be a nice selling opportunity to take advantage of. Currently, 0.65 level is seen as an absolute “ceiling” of this instrument.


USD/CAD opened trades at 1.3227 this week and was mostly moving up as there was higher demand for the greenback, while Canadian data was mostly negative. The Wholesale sales were out flat versus 0.8% growth expectations, as well as Core Retails Sales numbers that came in at zero, below 0.4% expected. Next week, data is expected from Canada, including IPPI, RMPI, GDP figures and RBC Manufacturing PMI.

USD/CAD (D1; 26 сентября 2015)

Trade guidelines:
USD/CAD initially broke higher this Thursday, even getting above the 1.34 level. However, there was enough resistance in that area to turn the pair back and as a result a shooting star formation occurred. The shooting star, of course, is a negative candle, so further losses can be expected as a result. A pullback at this point in time should be a buying opportunity, as the pair’s potential of reaching 1.35 level remain very promising. The moving averages are still pointing up, but the graph moved a little bit away from the upper border of the bullish trendline.


AUD/USD suffered significant losses this week with Caixin Manufacturing PMI falling to its 47-week lows with 47.0 reading. The pair was subsequently pushed down by hawkish comments from the Fed with expectations of a rate hike still driving USD price higher. Next week, data is expected from Australia - Building Approvals, Housing Credit, Private House Approvals and Retail Sales. From Chine, market expects Manufacturing PMI data. On the US side, investors are viewing Pending Home Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI and, of course, Nonfarm Payrolls.

AUD/USD (D1; 26 сентября 2015)

Trade guidelines:
AUD/USD initially fell during Thursday trade, breaking below the 0.70 level. However, there was enough support just below to turn the move back around, creating a hammer formation. Because of this, and the fact that the gold markets shot much higher should mean that this pair goes higher in the short-term, perhaps reaching towards the 0.7150 handle. On the other hand, a break down below the bottom of the hammer would be very bearish. Any considerable price rallies present great opportunity for selling this asset.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №68 from 03/10/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD remains under pressure, having extended its decline down to 1.5106 against the greenback, before managing to bounce back 1.5149. In the UK, the September Markit manufacturing PMI resulted better-than-expected, printing 51.5 against market's forecast of 51.3. The British GDP figures disappointed analysts with lower than expected economy growth rate. The Construction PMI was also in green colour at 59.9 versus 57.5 expected. Next week, the data is expected from UK including Services PMI, Manufacturing Production and interest rate decision.

GBP/USD (D1; October 2, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The September month closing came well below 1.5185.The bearish closing was witnessed after sterling failed to sustain above 1.5568. Thus, the prospects of a further sell-off to 1.4950 are high. A daily close below 1.4950 shall open doors for a re-test of 1.4814. However, the oversold conditions on the intraday charts may fuel a technical correction. In case the NFP is weak, a minor rally could run into offers in the range of 1.5350-1.5450. On the other hand, sterling could see a minor dip to 1.50, before rallying sharply to 1.55-1.5568 in case the strong NFP stabilized markets.



EUR/USD is down 30 points and is trading at 1.1159 near the bottom of its trading range. The single currency retreated from highs of this week against its major counterparts, after data showed that the private sector growth in Germany and euro area eased slightly in September. German manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.3 in September from 53.3 in August, although the sector still enjoyed its best quarter for over a year. The manufacturing PMI fell to 52, in line with forecast, from 52.3 in August. The composite output index dropped to 53.9 from 54.3 in August. It was expected to fall to 54. Separate data showed that Germany's private sector growth slowed slightly in September. The manufacturing PMI slid to 52.5 from 53.3 a month ago. It was expected to fall to 52.6. Next week, data is expected from euro zone including Services PMI and Retail Sales.

EUR/USD (D1; October 2, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The pair is currently trading at 1.1159, close to the bottom of its range at 1.1138. Upcoming moves will depend purely on the result of the US employment data, although seems unlikely that the report will be enough to set a clear directional move for the upcoming sessions. The support level is seen at 1.1109 while strong resistance is located at 1.1296.


USD/CAD lost 43 points to 1.3236 after the pair rose to over 1.34 earlier in the week. There is not much data expected from Canada on the economics calendar to support moves today, but Chinese PMI release earlier this week helped the commodity currencies to trade on a stronger note. The jump in oil prices was also helping the CAD this week. Currency traders are now looking forward to the prospect of possible political changes in Canada following next month’s elections. CAD strengthened after the Canadian economy rose for second month in a row. The Canadian GDP rose 0.3% MoM in July, driven by growth in energy production, manufacturing and service sector. Next week, the market is expecting the trade balance data, Ivey PMI and employment change data.

USD/CAD (D1; October 2, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
As long as 1.3011 support remains strong, outlook stays bullish with expectations for another rise. However, break of 1.3011 will indicate medium term contraction and would turn expectations bearish. In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9406 is still in progress. There is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The break of 1.3011 will be the first sign of reversal and would probably target a test on 1.1919 support.


AUD/USD shifted down 7 points to 0.7028 as the pair moved between ups and downs after retail sales met expectations and home sales beat the last month numbers. Australian retail sales rose in August due to a high degree of consumer resilience despite a broader economic slowdown. Retail sales rose 0.4% MoM in August after a 0.1% contraction in July according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. GDP growth in the second quarter slowed dramatically from Q1 amid a slowdown in China, Australian biggest trading partner. Next week, Australian data consists of Trade Balance, Interest Rate decision, HIA New Home Sales and home Loans. On the US side, the market will be closely watching the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

AUD/USD (D1; October 2, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The overall outlook for this instrument remains neutral. Consolidation from 0.6905 could extend with another rise. Above 0.7095, the pair will target 0.7278 resistance and above. On the downside, firm break of 0.6905 will bring down trend continuation. In long-term, the down trend from 1.1079, 2011 high, is still in progress. It would be reasonable to start being cautious if AUD/USD approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, break of 0.7625 resistance would turn it into support, which would give the first sign of medium term growth. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №69 from 09/10/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD is slightly up against a weaker US dollar. The pound rose 15 points to trade at above 1.53. The British Pound may continue higher after showing the largest two-day advance in three weeks as the Bank of England leaves the interest rate unchanged. Markets were most concerned with the ratio of votes of the MPC committee, which eventually was displayed as 8 to 1. The recent news-flow from UK has increasingly improved relative to the previous forecasts since September sit-down. The inflation expectations and 2015-16 GDP growth bets have also improved over the same period. This means a dovish turn in policymakers’ mood is highly unlikely. GBP began its rise on Wednesday after the release of some positive data. The cable surged as industrial production rose three times more than expected in the month of August, which was a breath of fresh air after back-to-back data disappointments. Next week, investors are viewing the British CPI, Average earnings and unemployment rate data.

GBP/USD (D1; October 9, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
GBP/USD went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday, forming a relatively neutral candle, but there was quite a bit of volatility during the day, which of course means that it will be very difficult to plan for a long-term trade at the moment. It would be sensible to use selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion of any rise, and as a result that is exactly what the market is waiting for. There is a strong resistance located at the 1.55 level, so having said that, there is absolutely no interest in mid-term buying.


EUR/USD is trading at 1.1337 having passed the top of its recent trading range. Having received the ECB policy minutes data, traders remained concerned over German trade balance which continued the line of German lackluster data this month. The US dollar continued to weaken as traders become more certain that there will be no interest rate increase in 2015. While the central bank has signaled a willingness to expand stimulus as needed, a swift rebound in inflation expectations since late August has probably defused the need for near term action. Next week, data is expected from euro zone including German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Industrial Production and CPI.

EUR/USD (D1; October 9, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD edged higher on Thursday as the FOMC minutes didn't provide any clear insight into rate hike timing. For most of hawkish indication, there was an offsetting "however." The minutes showed "many members" thought rate hike conditions had been met or would be met soon. However, "several members" were worried that the downside risks to growth and inflation had increased. The currency pair passed the resistance near 1.13. Support on the exchange rate is seen near the 200-day moving average at 1.1150. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a buy signal.


USD/CAD is trading at 1.2936 down by 18 points as the US dollar weakened and global commodities rebound. The Canadian dollar rose for the eighth day, its longest stretch of gains since June 2014, as advancing crude-oil prices led some traders to cancel bets against the currency. The loonie is rebounding from last week’s 11-year low. This week, the Ivey PMI was in red colour at 53.7, slightly lower than expected, while building permits data was also negative at 3.7% contraction rate versus 0.8% growth expected. However, the number of housing starts was higher than the forecast, coming out at 230.7K. Next week’s data that is likely to affect the loonie includes Foreign Securities Purchases and Manufacturing Sales.

USD/CAD (D1; October 9, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
USD/CAD has been falling on the daily timeframe since the release of GDP report on September 30 after it broke out of the consolidation triangle following the Federal Open Market Committee decision on September 17. It is expected that the bearish momentum will continue. A pending order to sell can be placed below 1.2867 level, with the stop loss the current price at 1.2930. After placing the pending order, the stop loss is to be moved every day following the bearish moves.


NZD/USD rose 4 points against weaker US dollar as traders evaluated the continued decline in global commodities after the IMF downgraded growth. The kiwi is trading at 0.6706. The effects from another positive dairy auction and an improvement in global sentiment are supporting the New Zealand dollar. Dairy prices were up almost 10 per cent at the Global Dairy Trade auction on Tuesday, the fourth consecutive lift. The next potential market-moving event was the reopening of the Chinese share market, which took a week-long break for the country's national holiday. Broad stabilization in risk appetite, combined with a less gloomy outlook for the NZ dairy sector, appears to have extended recent upward momentum. Next week, N.Z. publishes its Food Price Index, RBNZ Offshore Holdings figures, Business NZ PMI and CPI.

NZD/USD (D1; October 9, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD pair broke higher during the course of the session on Thursday, testing the top of the shooting star from Wednesday. With that being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to make a serious charged towards the 0.6750 level. It’s not going to be easy, but if the pair breaks above the top that shooting star we expect that level to be reached. On the other hand, if a decline is seen below the bottom of the shooting star we think it is a selling opportunity to the 0.65 level.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

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