Fundamental and technical analysis from Fort Financial Services

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market trades are rather sluggish in anticipation of new movement catalysts. The dollar keeps the overall positive mood ahead of the coming Friday labor market publication which may be defined in terms of the US interest rates timing and thus the US currency prospects.

The US currency was supported by the Federal Reserve System representative statement. The Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank may raise short-term interest rates next month.

The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came lower than expected 215 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 185 thousand.

The euro fell amid the increased demand for the dollar. Greece reported that it planned to sign the bailout agreement until 18 August. Greece will carry out a regular payment to the ECB on 20 August and the same deadline for the third tranche agreement signing. The pair is trading in a flat after a decrease.

Earlier the pound fell amid the renewed speculation that the Fed can be tempted to increase the key rate in September. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades.

The pair USD/JPY has updated the highs and continues to maintain an optimistic tone with the overall demand for the dollar.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell amid the US dollar in the run-up to the US government Friday's employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong that may lead to move the Federal Reserve interest rates hike forecasts at an earlier date.

The euro two-week rise against the US dollar has stopped and we can observe the support of 1.0925 breakthrough. Then the pair formed a consolidation and tested this level which is the resistance now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0925 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is e the support level of 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The latest publication showed the UK construction sector slowdown. The business activity index in the sector fell to 57.1 in July whereas it previously set the four-month high at the level of 58.1. Analysts expected the growth rate to 58.5.

The British pound corrective growth, formed at the level of 1.5460 gave a signal for the downward rebound. The signal served the support level of 1.5550 testing. However the pair rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.5670 further on we expect a fall to 1.5550, 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar showed growth on the increased expectations that in the context of the US economy improvements the Fed will resort to the interest rates increase in the coming months, possibly as early as September.

The correction was short after the resistance level of 124.30 retesting. Before reaching the support level of 123.50, buyers have reversed the formed correction up to the resistance level of 124.30 and broke it upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 125.50 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 127.00.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

This week the currency spent most of the trades in a lull. It is not surprising as we are approaching the end of the week where we expect the most significant releases and during the previous days traders just saved their strength.

The pair EUR/USD has recovered, responding to the US ADP data that did not meet their expectations. It turned out that it was created only 185 thousand jobs in the US private sector against the expected 215 thousand in July and 229 thousand in June. It undermined confidence in the dollar, especially in anticipation of the more labor market publication that is the NFP report. After all, if the employment level is unsatisfactory, it can erase all expectations about the possible Fed rate hike.

As a result, the dollar faced a sales wave against most rivals, but not for a long time. Shortly after the ADP report there was published the ISM US services sector activity index which in July rose up to 60.3 from the June's 56.0. It was quite enough to initiate the US dollar recovery against its major rivals. However, the dollar failed to maintain the leadership and strengthened only against the pound by the end of the day.

The Bank of England released its quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy last meeting minutes and delivered the current rate verdict. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 3 thousand having reached to 270 thousand.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Germany industrial orders rose up by 2.0% m/m and 7.2% y/y. The German industry rapid growth is connected with the cheap euro and also with the European continuing producer prices decline, though it does not eliminate the deflation threat.

The corrective rebound was formed which allowed buyers to test the resistance of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England has published the quarterly inflation forecast and the last monetary policy meeting minutes, our expectations lie in the fact that two committee members voted for a rate hike. Also the Bank of England governor Mark Carney made his speech. Later NIESR released the UK GDP forecast for July. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

For a long time the price has been consolidating in the side corridor levels: 1.5670 - 1.5550. The resistance level of 1.5670 was repeatedly tested for durability, but without a subsequent breakthrough. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through. The price fixated under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5460, 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US private sector new jobs insignificant increase data have supported the yen for a short time. However, the reports about the world largest non-manufacturing sector activity growth not only returned the pair to their original positions, but also raised it up to the new intraday high.

The long price consolidation below the resistance level of 124.30 was followed by a breakthrough. The breakthrough was on the high volume, it is highly probable the uptrend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 125.50, 127.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar maintained its optimism against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after the US non-manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly strong data. The ISM non-manufacturing sector activity index was 60.3 vs. 56.2 pp in July.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the last week the markets tended to consolidate ahead of the Friday’s US key data output, including the labor market report. As a result, the dollar fell slightly against the EUR and JPY and in dispute with the British pound it recorded a certain "profit".

The US Labor Department reported that the US economy added 215,000 jobs last month, instead of the expected 223000. There was created 231,000 jobs in June and the figures were revised from 223,000.

Among the pairs that demonstrated the maximum volatility we should identify only the pair GBP/USD where the US dollar was supported by the information indicating a certain extent of the British regulator monetary policy prospects. Last week the Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5%, the fund bond purchases volume also was not changed, leaving it in the amount of 375 billion pounds and has signaled that it is still preparing to start raising interest rates, but only at the beginning of next year. As a result, the pair GBP/USD has declined more than 100 points downwards.

There were published the BoJ meeting results- the Japanese regulator has not changed its monetary policy parameters. The market reacted to this information rather quiet and the pair USD/JPY continued to form the side trend. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with a decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro remained within the side trend and slightly declined against the US dollar. The main decline was after the weak German industrial production and the trade balance figures publication. The Germany industrial volume fell by 1.4% in June. The market had expected a growth by 0.3%. While the country trade surplus unexpectedly fell against the expected growth.

Earlier the US dollar was supported by the initial jobless claims data which rose to 270K. The forecast median was 273K.

The short-term correction within the euro was formed that is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.0925. Then the pair broke this level upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 will be opened.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Last week the British pound fell sharply against the US dollar after investors learned that the Bank of England was planning to increase its key interest rate only in 2016. The pound has not changed its position after the UK trade deficit publication which increased to 9.18 billion pounds in June from 8.42 billion pounds in May.

The markets remain cautious ahead of the July US employment official report that suggested an increase by 223,000. The release showed a growth by 215,000.

Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.5550, the level breakthrough was followed by increased volumes. Then there was a small price correction to the resistance level of 1.5550. Nevertheless, this movement was short-term and the pair tested the support level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks of 1.5390 and 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar grew against the yen before the US employment report publication. On Friday the Bank of Japan did not change the policy and kept the expensive stimulus program. The market had expected such a result, so its reaction was weak. Meanwhile, analysts suggest that the number of jobs grew by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 %. In fact the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 % and the number of jobs grew by 215,000.

Having broken through the resistance level of 124.30 upwards, the upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped. Little consolidation below the level led to the downward correction. The pair closed the trades below the level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50, further then towards 127.00.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has fallen against the US dollar. According to the data, the Switzerland unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.1% which coincided with the forecasts. Investors' attention was directed to the last week critical report and to the US labor market data. Analysts suggested that the number of jobs increased by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the minimum level of 5.3% since April 2008. According to the published release the unemployment rate came out at the forecasted median and the number of jobs increased by 223,000.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The week beginning was not successful for the US dollar. The US dollar fell against GBP and EUR, still it recorded quite insignificant "profit" against JPY. There was published the US economy important statistics and, probably, the US dollar decline can be related to the technical factors as well as to the grown doubts that the Fed will begin the policy tightening next month.

The euro sharp rise helped the deputy chairman S. Fisher comments. He said that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September while it is low inflation. The US Federal Reserve representative D. Lockhart also mentioned in his speech about the low inflation.

In response to these statements the dollar sharply fell down along the whole fronts. The pair EUR/USD and the pair GBP/USD have increased. Only the pair USD/JPY showed the dollar’s growth.

The fact is that the market considered the possibility of the Fed September rate hike almost as a settled issue. Now, when Lockhart excluded the word "September" from his rhetoric, the event no longer looks so certain. It is likely that the Friday's Fed data also influenced it. In any case, it would mean at least the dollar temporary weakening against most of its competitors.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The difference between the ECB and the Fed policy directions remains the main medium-term driver for the pair. The July Italy CPI was published which was expected to 0.2 y/y and -0.1 m/m. In fact, the data has not changed, confirming the traders’ forecasts. The ZEW Institute German current economic environment index was in the center of our attention. In August, the figure is expected to reach 64.5 against 63.9. In fact the data came out at the level of 65.7.

It is noted the resistance level of 1.1050 to be tested. The bulls failed to break it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

According to the BRC, the UK retail sales in the same stores fell by 1.2% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y in July. It was expected a decline by 1.0%. The UK average wage reports for June are of great interest as well as July jobless claims number changes for July. The news output is expected on Wednesday.

It was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough within the pair GBP/USD. The pair is consolidating.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese economic data showed positive changes in the money supply – the M2 aggregate in July increased to 4.1% y/y vs. 3.9% y/y in June and the M3 aggregate rose up to 3.3% y/y from 3.2% y/y. The equipment orders dynamics was less encouraging – it was recorded 1.6% y/y in July against 6.6 y/y in the previous period.

It is noted the pair USD/JPY growth after the rebound from the support level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 125.50 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 127.00 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The China Central Bank's decision was the main event that devalued the yuan. The US currency strengthened against all the major opponents in the light of this, still it was not able to keep the leading position.

The message that Greeks have reached an agreement with creditors and will receive assistance in the framework of the regular lending program caused European majors quite full-scale purchases which led to the US dollar decline against the euro to the end of the session and in the dispute with the pound.

The China’s decision to devalue the yuan has put pressure on the pound as it was considered it would be able to strengthen the disinflation pressure in the UK and to extend the low inflation period in the United Kingdom which leads to the raising rates transfer at a later date.

The measures taken by China have put pressure on the Japanese currency as well. Another reason to sell the yen was the Japan Prime Minister advisors E. Honda’s statements who said that if the expected GDP data pointed to the sharp decline in the second quarter there would be a need to deploy a new fiscal stimulus.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the Bank of France, the France payments balance current account surplus has grown for June due to the foreign trade deficit reduction. The payments balance current account surplus amounted to 1 billion euro against 200 million euro in May. The trade deficit fell to 1 billion euro from 1.7 billion euro in June.

The euro managed to break through above the key resistance level of 1.1050. Due to this resistance breakthrough, buyers got the way to the strong resistance level of 1.1150 that was also broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Taking into account bonuses, the UK average wage fell to 2.4% in June against the earlier 3.2%, but it was expected a decline to 2.8%. The number of jobless claims further declined than expected: -4.9K vs. 1.5K. The debate figure was revised downwards from 7.0K to 0.2K. The unemployment rate has not changed and confirmed the forecasts - 5.6%.

Buyers corrected the price to the level of 1.5610 on the low volumes. It was expected the given level testing but bulls did not test it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.5670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5775 and 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan monetary policy meeting minutes were published in the Asian session on Tuesday. We received the industrial production positive results, the industrial production volume increased to 1.1% m/m which is higher than the growth expectations up to 0.8%. The service sector business activity index came out better than expected: 0.3% m/m against the growth expectations up to 0.1% m/m while the index was -0.7% m/m last month.

The price consolidated above the support level of 124.30. However the pair fell below this level amid the weakened dollar. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing the role of a strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 123.50. the next target is the level of 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

14.08.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar got under strong pressure on its main opponents’ part this week it had fallen against the euro, the pound and the yen. The reason was the optimism decline about the US rapid rate hike amid the Chinese yuan decline that continued to fall after its devaluation.

The pair EUR/USD raised slightly amid the European stock exchanges sales. Investors closed their long positions on the equity markets and transferred it to the bond market which supported demand for the euro. After a decrease the pair grew by the end of the trades.

By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the oil prices stabilization. The US Energy Department has reported the crude oil reserves reduction for the third consecutive week that contributed to the Brent brand consolidation. After an increase the pound also consolidated.

The rapidly growing opinions about the US rapid rate hike illusory prospects drove down the pair dollar / yen. The Japanese currency strengthened in the last session against the US dollar. However, the US dollar was able to neutralize some of the losses by the end of the trades with the changes support in the US government debt market where the "Treasuries" prices declined slightly after the initial growth. However, the pair closed the yesterday’s trades closed with the pair’s decrease.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the July final report the consumer price index increased by 0.2%. A month earlier the index value has decreased by 0.1%. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecast. The France consumer price index decreased by 0.4% in July compared with the previous month after a decline by 0.1% a month earlier. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecasts.

According to the forecasts, the US jobless claims had to remain unchanged and fix 270 thousand claims. The data came out at the level of 274 thousand.

The upward trend reversed towards the correction. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. The pair fell below the support level of 1.1150, but then it increased again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The «UK housing prices balance indicator by RICS» rose more than expected for the last month. According to the report prepared by the British Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the indicator (given to the seasonal fluctuations) was 44% compared with 40% the previous month. Experts expected the rate growth for the last month to 42%.

The United States provided the retail sales important data in July and the number of initial jobless claims. The retail sales data in July increased by 0,6% and the initial jobless claims came out less by 4 000 the forecasted median.

Buyers have broken through and consolidated above the level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes, but it opened the way for the resistance level of 1.5670. Then the pair rebounded downwards and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.5670, 1.5775.

[0:06:03] Валдис Петрис:

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan economic showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 7.9% m/m in June while the strongest decline was forecasted - by 6.5% m/m. However, it did not affect the market.

We did not expect the US retail sales publication better than the consensus forecast. The initial jobless claims report was expected unchanged at the level of 270K. The release showed 274K.

The pair USD/JPY is showing a technical recovery from the minimum when the dollar turned downwards and fell against other major currencies. However, the trades are below the key resistance of 125.50.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 125.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 123.50 and 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar index has fallen amid the Treasury bond yields sharp decline in connection with speculations, concerning the China measures on the yuan devaluation decline that will lead to the «deflation exports" that will force the Fed to postpone interest rates increase at least until December. According to the data, the Switzerland import and producer price index weakened by -0.1% m/m in June to -0.3% m/m in July and from -6.1% y/y to -6.4% y/y.

Investors focused their attention on the jobless claims report which is expected to reach the level of 270,000 but the data showed a growth to 274,000.

The continued price consolidation below the resistance level of 0.9850 was followed by an active decline by more than 200 points. The prices declined to the support near 0.9750. then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through this level upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 0.9540 may lead to a price rebound upwards.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The demand for the US dollar has been returning to the high levels amid the concerns about the further global economy reducing prospects. Another factor that supported the US dollar was a political component, mentioned in the Fed top management speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The US currency finished the trades in the "red zone" - the dollar index basket closed the trades at the mark of 96.15. Traders continued to win back the US GDP strong data for the second quarter. The US two-year Treasury bond yields, reflecting the Fed rate expectations, fell to the level of 0.724%. Financial markets are beginning to "lay" the FOMC monetary policy tightening. The US GDP growth high rate indicates that it is unlikely to be the China strong economic slowdown. As the risks can be leveled, the US Federal Reserve can raise interest rates.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished the trading day with a decrease, the pair GBP/USD had declined as well and the USD/JPY had increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US, Germany and the UK negative bond yields began to decline which traditionally causes demand for the euro. The leading stock markets showed weakness at the end of the last week which also supports the demand for the euro as a funding currency.

The downward correction stopped near the level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential targets are 1.1150 and 1.1050. If the price grows it will get to 1.1410.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK banks were closed on Monday. The Brent crude oil growth is increasing the UK energy sector revenues which are about 10% of GDP. On the other hand, the UK bond yields are declining relative to the US and Germany counterparts which levels the British assets investments attractiveness and restricts demand for the pound.

There was the support level of 1.5370 false breakthrough. The short level breakthrough on the lower volumes was followed by the price return above the level where a consolidation will be probably formed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200. In case of a pull back the pair may return to the level 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

According to the Japanese industrial production volume has decreased contrary to our expectations last month. This indicator was 0.6% compared with 1.1% the previous month. Experts expected the growth rate to be 0.1% last month.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a growth, the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive area now. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20. Otherwise the price will grow to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar declined against the yen amid the investors’ reaction to the stock market decline and the rates reduction against the currencies which are used to finance the carry trade. That day the debt market was quiet: the credit spreads remained practically unchanged compared with the last week closure.

The trade volume was relatively low because of the London market closure due to the holiday, but also because of the expectations about the US coming Friday August employment data which can indicate that the Fed would raise interest rates in September.

On Saturday the Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said in his statement that the US inflation would likely be growing in case from the dollar growth pressure decline which may allow the Fed to gradually raise rates.

It revived the idea that the Fed would start raising interest rates in September and helped the dollar growth against a range of currencies, including the pound and the franc.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed weakness that is a positive factor for the single European currency. The carry trade transactions will contribute to the euro demand as a funding currency. The debt market dynamics starts sending the bullish signal for the dollar.

The Forex market analysis is showing that the price continues the weak upward correction. The resistance level of 1.1260 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.1260. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The negative factor is the British currency revaluation against the euro that is its main trading partner. The British pound growth reduces the Old World products competitiveness. The oil prices decline supports the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.

The pound exchange rate began a new corrective movement round after an unsuccessful attempt to continue the downward trend. However the corrective movement was short-term. The pair rebounded downwards from the resistance level of 1.5390 and tested the support level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 1.5200. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese and the US negative bond yields grow that is a bullish factor for the dollar as they increase the investments attractiveness in the US assets. The world leading stock markets are showing their weakness that on the contrary will support demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

Analyzing the yen exchange rate we see that the price is decreasing. The support level of 120.40 was broken downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the sellers may go to 118.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro was not able to take advantage of the positive news background which indicates the absence of strong buyers in the market. The euro zone unemployment fell by 0.2% by the end of July, indicating an economic growth that is a positive factor for the currency. The ISM manufacturing sector indicator has showed the lowest value since May 2013 which is a negative signal for the Fed. Despite these positive factors, the London sales ended with the euro decline which indicates the bears’ predominance in the market.

The pair GBP/USD has decreased. The British currency is showing weakness amid the fundamental factors. The debt market is also pessimistic about the British currency: the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to its US and Germany counterparts. Nevertheless the pound strengthened by the end of the trades.

Earlier the pair USD/JPY has decreased. The world leading stock exchanges negative dynamics will contribute to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. The Japanese and the US government bond yields are increasing which is a positive factor for the dollar. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The stock markets negative dynamics supported the demand for the euro as a funding currency. The US private sector ADP employment data was the highlight of the day. The ADP release was worse than the consensus forecast – the euro received a short-term support. The data came lower than expected 201 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 190 thousand.

Meanwhile the euro/ dollar pair continued its correction. However the pair could not fixate above the broken resistance level of 1.1260 and the trades closed below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1325.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Euro zone and the UK bond yields have been increasing for five months in a row which is a negative factor for the UK economic growth. Yesterday the UK government bond yields declined significantly relative to their US and Germany counterparts. Markit Economics published the UK construction sector PMI index data.

The pair pound/dollar is trading under the pressure. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300, but the pair closed the trades above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan, Germany and the US width indicator points out to the strong sellers’ presence in corporate securities. The exchange trading funds, investing in Emerging Markets, again noted the strong capital outflow that traditionally occurs in sales periods. On the other hand, the debt market points out to the investments attractiveness in US assets.

The pair dollar/ yen has tested the support level of 119.20 and increased to the resistance level of 120.40. The pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 119.20 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 118.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.09.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US currency was able to return some positions which had been lost the day before - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.85. There was the ADP private sector employment level report published. The August data did not meet the market expectations - the actual number of jobs, created in the private sector, amounted to 190 thousand against the forecasted 201 thousand. Nevertheless, traders chose to ignore the publication and continued to buy the US currency. The United States published the jobless claims weekly report. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 12 thousand having increased to 282 thousand.

The pair EUR/USD has decreased amid the Germany and the US negative government bond yields. On Thursday investors focused their attention on the ECB decision on the monetary policy and on the Mario Draghi's press conference. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was within the flat. Investors took profits on the short positions after the six days downward movement. On Thursday investors study the August UK service sector business activity index. The index decreased to 55,6.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid demand for the "risky assets". Nevertheless, then the pair decreased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German bond are declining relative to their US and the UK counterparts and the stock markets experienced moderate demand for corporate securities, thereby reducing demand for the euro as a funding currency. The ECB announced its monetary policy meeting results and according to them the rate will remain unchanged at the level of 0.05%.

The pair euro/dollar continues to trade in downward trend. The support level of 1.1150 was broken and the pair is under the pressure for reduction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to their US counterparts that reduces the investments attractiveness in British assets and does not contribute to the UK national currency demand. The UK service sector business activity decreased contrary to the traders’ expectations and amounted to 55.6 compared with 57.4 the previous month.

The pair pound/dollar is under pressure now. The pair broke through the support level of 1.5300 and continues the downward movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5200 and 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The leading NASDAQ high-tech index indicates demand for the "risky assets" which is a negative factor for the "safe assets" that traditionally include the Japanese yen.

In addition, the US two year government bond yields increase which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate is also a positive factor for the dollar.

The pair dollar/yen was forming a growth structure. Having tested the resistance level of 120.40 the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 119.20. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 118.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar has grown against the Swiss franc amid the global stock markets fragile stabilization.

The pair dollar/franc continues its growth. The pair broke through the resistance level of 0.9650 and tested the level of 0.9750.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.