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Forex Analytics

Trading plan for September 3

Kira Iukhtenko


US Dollar index consolidates slightly below the 96 points mark on Wednesday. Weak ADP NFP was ignored by the market. It seems that the expectations for the strong official figures on Friday will be supporting the greenback until the end of the week. As for Thursday, watch the US trade balance and unemployment claims.

EUR/USD continues its slow decline, approaching the 1.1200 figure. The ECB meeting on Thursday is creating bearish expectations: Mario Draghi could on a QE program extension. We stay bearish below 1.1320 with a target of 1.1150.

GBP/USD trades at 3-month lows after having slipped below 1.5300. The next target is seen at 1.5170. Watch the UK Services PMI on Thursday – a downbeat surprise could trigger a massive selloff.

USD/JPY is trying to offset the Tuesday losses, but remains unstable. China markets will be closed on Thursday and on Friday – the pair could get some support out of there. Next resistance lies at 120.40, support – at 118.50.

AUD/USD consolidates around the trend support. The pair failed to fix below 0.7000 for now. However, data on Thursday could create a new wave of selling: watch the Australia retail sales and trade balance. Resistance is seen at 0.7070.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6303
 
Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 4

By Elizabeth Belugina




On Friday, traders will be focused on the release of the US nonfarm payrolls data (NFP) at 12:30 GMT as it’s the key publication ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting. This publication will determine dollar’s dynamics in all major pairs. According to the forecast, American economy added 217K jobs in August. As there have been many concerns about China so far, a reading above 200K is needed to keep the greenback from declining. A reading above 220K will make the greenback strengthen – the bigger the figure is, the higher USD will get. A reading between 200K and 220K may cause some volatility, but won’t clarity the Fed’s position. Ahead of the release trading should be quiet and in narrow ranges as many players will avoid new positions.

EUR/USD fell on Thursday because of the dovish comments of the European Central Bank. The ECB lowered inflation and growth forecasts and increased issue share limit: the central bank may now hold 33% of a bond issue vs. 25% earlier. The pair met support of the 100-day MA in the 1.1100 area.

GBP/USD continues declining hitting the next target at 1.5245 (50% of the April-June advance). Further support is at 1.5200 and 1.5170/50. Resistance is at 1.5330, 1.5360 and 1.5400.

USD/JPY is facing resistance of the 50% Fibo of the August decline and 200-day MA (120.70/77). It seems like the pair’s under bearish pressure below this area. Further resistance is in the 121.70 zone. Support is at 119.60 and 119.30.

AUD/USD is trying to hold above the psychological level of 0.7000. After weak GDP came weak retail sales. The pair is oversold and there is bullish divergence on H4. Still, no big moves are expected until the NFP release. Resistance is at 0.7060, 0.7100 and 0.7128. Support is at 0.6950 and 0.6900.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6314
 
Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for September 7-13

By Elizaveta Belugina


During the past week, EUR/USD didn’t renew high. On the contrary, most time the bias was negative because of the expectations of the dovish European Central Bank. The ECB’s didn’t disappoint the bears. The regulator left monetary policy unchanged, but warned about the negative risks coming from emerging markets and lowered the euro area’s growth and inflation forecasts. President Mario Draghi said that currency union might slip into deflation in the coming months.

It now looks very likely that the ECB’s current quantitative easing program (QE) will last longer than September 2016. The central bank made some technical adjustments to QE, which will allow it to be more flexible and buy as much bonds as necessary. Overall, we can say that the ECB is dovish, but not aggressively so.

The euro area’s economic calendar for the next week is not very full. There will be industrial production figures from Germany and France, the regions’ revised GDP and the informal meeting of the European finance ministers. There may be some headlines ahead of the Greek election due on September 20 as for now no political party gets the majority in parliament that creates political risks.

Still, it may be a relatively quiet week, which precedes the Federal Reserve’s meeting and elections in Greece. If we look at the American side of the things, we may see that mixed labor market data didn’t bring any clarity about what to expect from the Fed this month. So, no clear trends should come from here.

Note, however, that next week China can once again draw the market’s attention: the nation will release trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Thursday. Don’t forget that lower-than-expected figures may spike demand for the euro as a safe haven.

Technical picture. Support is at 1.0900. Resistance is at 1.1280, 1.1436 (June 18 high) and 1.1467 (May 15 high). The euro is vulnerable for more declines against Japanese yen.

EURUSDDaily.png


Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6325
 
Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for September 7-13

KIra Iukhtenko


British pound extended the decline on the past week, hitting the lowest levels since June. The latest news from the United Kingdom disappoint. Services sector PMI fell to a 2-year low, confirming the UK companies are trouble by the global crisis. Expectations for the BOE rate hike in 2015 declined.

On the new week, we’ll be watching the June manufacturing production figures. Bank of England is scheduled to meet on Thursday. No rate hike is expected. What’s more, we could hear some dovish comments this time.

As for the technical viewpoint, the cable is trying to fix below 50% Fibonacci from the April-June uptrend and broke below the 1.5200 round figure. Strong resistance is seen at 1.5330, while the 1.5170 mark still remains a hurdle. Break below would open the way to 1.5000.

GBPUSDWeekly.png


More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6321
 
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for September 7-13

By Elizabeth Belugina


After topping in the 121.70 area USD/JPY made another top in the 120.70 region. Demand for the yen as a safe haven limited the pair on the upside provoked a selloff to the 119.00 area.

As for the drivers from America, we should note that US nonfarm payrolls data weren’t very high coming below 200K. This might be the negative seasonal factors in play. Still, American unemployment rate declined and average earnings rose. Such mixed release means that the debate on whether US economy is in a good enough shape for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September will surely continue in the coming week.

Next week Japan will release current account and final GDP on Tuesday and some manufacturing data on Thursday and Friday. Japanese economic growth is unlikely to be revised to the upside. All in all, the speculation about the Fed’s rate hike timing and the markets risk sentiment will be the key themes for the market. The situation of risk aversion will likely continue as money is flowing out of China. Pay attention to the release of Chinese trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Thursday.

Technical picture. USD/JPY has strong resistance levels at 120.70, 121.70 and 122.00 – levels, which will be hard for the bulls to get through. Support is in the 118.30/00. Below that there should be buying interest from Japanese companies. Next support is at 116.00.

USDJPYDaily.png


Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6326
 
Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for September 7-13

Kira Iukhtenko


US labor market data came out mixed on Friday. Non-farm payrolls rose by 173K in August (below the forecast). However, jobless rate declined to the lowest in 7 years and the average hourly earnings increased. Overall, the employment data didn’t hurt the positive image of the US economic dynamics.

NFP.png


On the new week, we expect the US Dollar to extend the upside gradually. Next bullish targets for the USD index lie at 97 and 98.50 points. We still remain long on the greenback versus the commodity block currencies.

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. On Monday, the US markets will be closed due to the Labor Day. On Thursday, we’ll watch the unemployment claims, while on Friday the market will focus on PPI. Investors are gradually positioning ahead of the Fed’s September 17 meeting.

usd%20index%20weekly.png


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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6324
 
Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
7 September 2015

Roman Petuchov


Daily. Bearish trend [C] is now being developped. Complex corrective wave (4) has been finished recently. We're now declining in a new bearish impulse (5). Price decline in this wave will likely continue in the coming weeks.

eurusd2.PNG


H4. Correction [2] could be accomplished on the past week. On the new week we expect the bearish move to the South to be extended.

eurusd2.PNG


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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6336
 
Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
7 September 2015

Roman Petuchov


Daily. The price keeps on declining in a final part of an impulse A. Wave (5) of [5] of A is now being formed. Let's see the markup in the details.

audusd1.PNG


H4. On the past week we've seen a new 5-wave construction 5 being formed. It will likely be finished on Monday or on Tuesday.

audusd2.PNG


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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6339
 
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
7 September 2015

Roman Petuchov


Daily. The market is now trading in the final part of the long-term bullish trend. Correction (IV) has been accomplished. After that the price growth continued. Let's see the chart in the details.

usdjpy1.PNG


H4. We are now observing the final part of the wave 2 being formed. At the beginning of the new week we expect the price to jump in an impulse wave 3.

usdjpy2.PNG


More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6338
 
Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

Roman Petuchov


Daily. The price keeps on declining in a final part of an impulse A. Wave (5) of [5] of A is now being formed. Let's see the markup in the details.

audusd1.PNG


H4. On the past week we've seen a new 5-wave construction 5 being formed. It will likely be finished on Monday or on Tuesday.

audusd2.PNG


More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6339
 
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