Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

Divergence on Forex Majors Leads to Rebound

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD could be bouncing at the support trend line (green) but a turn on the oscillator would confirm that potential for a bullish bounce.

1 hour



The EUR/USD created divergence (purple) and is now challenging the resistance trend line (orange), which could cause a potential ABC correction (green). Whether the wave count is an ABC (green) or a potential 123, remains to be seen and depends partly on how strong the current bullish bounce behaves (corrective or momentum).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD bounced off the horizontal support level (green) which could indicate a potential retracement (see 1 hour chart). Any potential break below the green line this week indicates a breakout below a daily and weekly support level.

1 hour



The GBP/USD expanded the 5th wave (orange) and has now divergence between the most recent bottoms (purple) line. This could cause price to retrace back to the long-term moving average via an ABC correction (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY should not retrace deeper than the 78,6% Fibonacci level otherwise the wave count change will change to an ABC instead of a 123 (purple).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
EUR/USD Rebounds and Breaks Resistance for ABC Rally

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has bounced at the support trend line (green). The bullish bounce has strong resistance levels above it and a break of the top and the 38.2% Fib at 1.17 is not expected.

1 hour



The EUR/USD did indeed show a bullish bounce at the bottom (wave B) and is now rallying as part of an ABC correction (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD bounced off the horizontal support level (green) for the 2nd time which most likely created a double bottom. Once a 5 wave impulse is completed then the typical correction will occur via an ABC.

1 hour



A break of the resistance trend line (red) could indicate the potential for wave C (magenta) to rally higher.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY moved back to the moving averages and now broke below the support trend line (dotted green) which could indicate the potential start of wave 5 (purple).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Trend Lines Offer Decision Spots in FX Market

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has bounced at the support trend line (green) but the rebound has been relatively slow which has created a triangle. A break above resistance (red) or below support (green) could trigger more momentum.

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed an ABC rally (purple) after breaking above resistance (orange). After that it made a deep pullback which probably belongs to a bigger bullish correction like a wave X retracement (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD price action is captured by a neat downtrend channel but it has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci target of wave 5 (orange). A break above resistance (orange) or below support (green) could trigger more momentum.

1 hour



Divergence is still present with the recent break of the bottom (purple).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY had a strong bullish rebound which increases the chance of wave 5 (dark red) failing to break the bottom - especially when one considers the big wick on the bottom of the last week's weekly candle.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Bounce or Break at EUR/USD’s Support Trend Line

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has retraced back to the long-term support trend line (green). This could be a hook back for another bullish bounce as indicated in the current wave count. A break of the support trend line would indicate a potential bearish breakout and change the wave structure.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is in a triangle chart pattern with resistance (red/orange) and support (green) marking the break zones. A bearish break would invalidate the current WX (purple) wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD pushed lower yesterday but the oscillator has made a clear turn and is retracing back to the middle point, which means that the currency pair is in retracement territory.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is still moving to lower levels in the neat downtrend channel. However, a correction back to the top of the channel or long-term moving average is a decent possibility with the presence of double divergence and a small opposite momentum (wave A - magenta).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY seems to have completed 5 waves for a truncated wave 5 (purple) due to the failure to break the bottom of wave 3.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
USD and JPY Strong on Critical NFP Day

EUR/USD

4 hour

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The US Non-Farm Employment Change together with the unemployment rate will have a high impact on the movements in the Forex market. In yesterday's trading the EUR/USD broke the key support trend line (dotted green) with a strong bearish momentum candle (close near low). The Fibonacci levels are the potential targets but any movement is very depended on the news event.

1 hour

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The EUR/USD is showing a potential for 2 internal waves within wave 5 (green). Currently it seems to be making a wave 4 consolidation. If the NFP sends the EUR/USD up then the alternative wave count shows a completed wave 5 (green) at the recent bottom.

GBP/USD

4 hour

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The US Non-Farm Employment Change together with the unemployment rate will have a high impact on the movements in the Forex market. The GBP/USD has moved lower to the 78.6% Fibonacci target and depending on the news event could either break the falling wedge (orange/green) to the upside or continue down to the next Fib levels.

1 hour

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The GBP/USD continued yet again to the bottom of the downtrend channel (green/red). The momentum remains weak and therefore the wave structure resembles an ending diagonal pattern (dark green).

USD/JPY

4 hour

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The US Non-Farm Employment Change together with the unemployment rate will have a high impact on the movements in the Forex market. At the moment price is attempting to break a support trend line (dotted green) which is most likely part of wave 5 (purple).

1 hour

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The USD/JPY's ABC formation (green) did not move into the price territory of wave 1 (purple line), which allows the wave count to show a wave 4 and 5 (blue) within wave 5 (purple). Price has broken below the support trend line (broken green) on the 1 hour chart.

Original material is provided by Admiral Markets






 
EUR/USD and GBP/USD Remain in Solid Bearish Trends

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend as long as price stays below the broken support (green) and resistance line (red). The next major support level is the 61.8% Fib target and the 1.10 psychological round level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD shows a truncated (failure to break bottom) wave 5 (blue). A break below support (green) shows the potential for price to fall towards the Fibonacci targets. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (purple) invalidates the purple bearish waves.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBPUSD downtrend channel remains intact and both trend lines (orange/red) are important resistance zones.

1 hour


A break below the Fibonacci target could indicate the potential for a continuation of the downtrend to the next Fib level whereas a break above resistance (red/orange) could indicate the potential for a retracement of the downtrend.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USDJPY long-term wave count suggests that price is in a bigger bearish correction zone with the development of an ABC (brown).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
EURUSD Remains in Triangle but GBPUSD Breaks Channel

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is showing bullish price action at the moment, which still has a major resistance zone above it (red trend line and 1.1250 round level). A break above the resistance could indicate the potential for price to make a larger bullish correction whereas a bounce could indicate a downtrend continuation.

1 hour



The EUR/USD remains in a triangle for the moment with a clear support (green) and resistance (red) line marking its boundaries.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBPUSD downtrend channel is being broken, which indicates a decent probability that the wave 5 (orange) has been completed.

1 hour



The GBP/USD divergence is finally impacting the currency and causing a bigger correction to occur. Price has not only retraced back to the long-term moving average (dotted purple) but it seems to be building a 5 wave pattern (magenta).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USDJPY is continuing its bearish trend and the next target could the 100% Fibonacci level.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
5 Wave Patterns Developing on US Dollar Charts

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD remains in triangle marked by support (green) and resistance (red) after completing 5 bearish waves down (brown). There is now a decent chance for a wave 2 (green) pullback or alternatively a wave B retracement.

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed an ABC correction (purple) yesterday but there is a decent chance that the corrective zone will see an expansion via a WXY (brown). This will allow price to retrace deeper within wave 2 (green). A break below the 161.8% target of wave C (purple) would invalidate the WXY (brown) structure.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBPUSD bullish price action pushed well above the bearish trend channel. Due to the impulsive nature of the price movement the swing has been labeled as a wave 3 (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD extended the 5 wave pattern on a lower time frame and could now be retracing as part of a wave 4 (pink). A break below the 50% Fibonacci would most likely lead to a change of the wave count.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USDJPY broke above the inner resistance trend line (dotted orange), which most likely indicates the start of a bullish breakout. The potential for upside could be limited as a larger bearish ABC (brown) is in play with Fibonacci retracement levels and an outer resistance trend line (red) capping the rebound.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Support & Resistance Trend Lines Offer Decision Spots

EUR/USD

4 hour


The EUR/USD bounced at the bottom of the triangle support (green) and rallied to test the triangle resistance (red) as mentioned in yesterday's live strategy webinar at Admiral Markets (click here to join next week).

1 hour



The EUR/USD bullish momentum could be part of a bigger ABC zigzag (purple). Using a Fibonacci tool in the middle of a triangle however always remains risky and price could easily retest the bottom of the triangle yet again. A bullish break above resistance (red) could see price retrace deeper versus wave 2 (green) whereas a bearish break of support (green) could see price start wave 3 (green) or C.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBPUSD bullish price action pushed well above the bearish trend channel. Due to the impulsive nature of the price movement the swing has been labeled as a wave 3 (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD went sideways yesterday which is a typical behavioral pattern for a wave v (pink). A break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level would make the count unlikely. A break above the bull flag pattern (dark red trend lines) indicates the potential for the start of wave 5 (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USDJPY retested the resistance trend line (red) and long-term moving average (dotted purple). The bullish momentum could be strong enough to label the upside as a wave A (purple) with the anticipation of wave B and C (purple).




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
EURUSD & GBPUSD Display Bullish Breakouts

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is indeed retracing deeper within wave 2 (green) or alternatively wave B (green) and is very near the first Fibonacci level (38.2%).

1 hour



The EUR/USD did indeed use the Fibonacci retracement levels as indicated in yesterday's wave analysis to make a bounce for wave B (blue). The rally broke above resistance (red) in what now seems like a wave 3 (green) with a wave 5 (green) potentially remaining before wave C (blue) is completed.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBPUSD is building both a bearish and a bullish 5 wave pattern (orange and pink). Both 5 wave patterns could be part of a bigger wave A or wave 1 (orange/green). In any case, there is a high chance for a 3 wave correction after the bullish 5 wave (pink) is completed.

1 hour



As expected in yesterday's wave analysis the GBP/USD broke the classic bull flag wave 4 (pink) chart pattern to the upside for a continuation of wave 5 (pink). Price could still extend to higher Fibonacci targets before completing perhaps wave A (orange) after which a 3 wave retracement for wave B seems the most likely.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is in a triangle and a bullish break could see price retrace deeper versus the Fibonacci retracement levels. Currently price has stopped at the 38.2% Fib level. A bearish break could indicate the likelihood of wave C (brown) of wave Y (green) continuing.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
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