Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

Technical Update - USDCAD, CADJPY, EURCAD and AUDCAD

USDCAD


Following its drop in mid-Sept. towards testing 50-day SMA support near 1.3000 mark, the pair resumed its well established ascending trend to test 1.3450 resistance level, marking 61.8% Fib. retracement level of Jan. 2002 to Nov. 2007 big fall. The pair is now headed for the highest monthly close since June 2004. A sustained move above 1.3450 resistance is likely to continue supporting further near-term up-move for the pair towards its next major resistance near 1.3700 mark with some minor intermediate resistance near 1.3500 and 1.3600 round figure marks. Meanwhile, previous resistance near 1.3350-40 area, now seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. Weakness below this immediate support is likely to be supported by 1.3300 mark and 1.3230-20 support levels. Only a decisive break below 1.3230-20 support area, leading to a sustained weakness below 50-day SMA support, currently near 1.3180 now seems to trigger any meaningful corrective move in the near-term.

CADJPY


The pair once again managed to rebound from an important support near 89.00-88.90 area and now seems to extend the recovery towards a descending trend-line resistance near 90.30 level. This descending trend-line resistance along with a descending trend-line support now seems to constitute towards formation of a bullish Falling Wedge chart-pattern. The pattern, however, is confirmed only once the pair decisively breaks through the upper descending trend-line resistance near 90.30 level. Hence, a decisive strength above this strong resistance is likely to lift the pair immediately towards 90.60-65 intermediate resistance, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level of the pair's sharp fall from August highs to the lowest level since Dec. 2012 tested in August. Moreover, the pair is likely continue with its near-term recovery trend towards testing the very important resistance near 91.70-80 region, marking 50% Fib. retracement level. However, should the pair starts giving up its gains and drop back below 23.6% Fib. retracement level support near 89.30 area, it might continue finding support at the lower descending trend-line support, currently near 88.80 level. Only a decisive weakness below 88.80 support level might negate expectations of any near-term recovery for the pair and is likely to pave way for a drop back towards 87.40-30 support region earlier tested in August.

EURCAD


Although the pair has steadily moved higher during the month of September, the up-move seems to be restricted by an ascending trend-line resistance, currently near 1.5140-50 zone. Near-term downside too, is supported by a short-term ascending trend-line, currently near 1.4960-50 area. The combination of the ascending trend-line resistance and support now seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern, which is likely to be confirmed once the pair breaks below the lower ascending trend-line support near 1.4960-50 zone. A decisive break below this immediate strong support seems to immediately drag the pair towards 1.4850 intermediate support region, before falling further towards its next major support near 1.4600 mark. Alternatively, should the pair continue holding this ascending trend-line support and move back above 1.5100 round figure mark resistance, it seems to make a fresh attempt to retest the very important ascending trend-line resistance near 1.5140-50 region. A decisive strength above this strong resistance now seems to negate the bearish chart-pattern formation, thus paving way for resumption of the previous strong up-move, initially towards 1.5300 mark intermediate resistance and eventually towards 1.5430-50 resistance area marking the highest level since March 2014 tested in August 2015.

AUDCAD


The pair's reversal from a descending trend-line resistance, also coinciding with 50-day SMA, managed to find support near 0.9300 mark, nearing 23.6% Fib. retracement level of August high to Sept. lows fall. From current levels, the pair seems to head back towards 50% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.9440-50 area. This 0.9450 level resistance also nears the very important confluence comprising of 50-day SMA and the descending trend-line resistance. Hence, a clear strength above this strong resistance is likely to immediately lift the pair towards testing another strong resistance confluence near 0.9515-20 area, comprising of 100-day SMA and 61.8% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile on the downside, 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 0.9380-75 level, now seems to protect immediate downside. Failure to hold this immediate support is likely to drag the pair back towards retesting the very important support at 23.6% Fib. retracement level support near 0.9300-0.9290 area.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Update: Important EUR Pairs

EURGBP



Following its bounce from ascending trend-line, connecting August lows to September lows, the EURGBP managed to mark the highest level in more than four months; however, 0.7440 – 0.7455 horizontal resistance restricted the pair's further advance during Tuesday, indicating a quick test to its 38.2% Fibo of November 2014 – July 2015 decline. Should the pair fails to hold 0.7350 immediate support, it can quickly plunge to 200-day SMA, 0.7300 round figure mark, prior to re-testing the mentioned trend-line support, near 0.7250. Further decline below 0.7250 can make the pair to extend its downward trajectory towards 0.7200 – 0.7185 important support region, encompassing 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibo, breaking which chances of its plunge to 0.7050 can't be denied. However, a clear break of 0.7455, followed by the 50% Fibo of 0.7500 mark, can quickly fuel the pair towards 61.8% Fibo, near 0.7615, breaking which 0.7700 and the 0.7750 are likely consecutive resistances that the pair could witness during its northward moves.

EURJPY



Even if the 133.10 – 133.00 horizontal support successfully restricts the EURJPY decline, 38.2% Fibo of its December 2014 – April 2015 decline, also including the 200-day SMA, seems limiting the pair's near-term advance near 135.00 – 135.10 area. Given the pair's failure to surpass 135.10, it can test the 133.80 as immediate support, breaking which 133.10 – 133.00 re-test may become consecutive supports during its following move. Moreover, an extended decline below 133.00, can make the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 131.00 round figure mark; though, 132.20 can become intermediate support. Alternatively, pair's ability to break 135.10 can quickly fuel it towards 136.50 and the 137.00 resistance levels prior to targeting the 138.00 important level, including 50% Fibo and three month old descending trend-line, indicating a descending triangle formation. Should the pair manage to break 138.00 on a closing basis, it can rally to 139.00 and ultimately aim towards 140.70-80 resistance area, including 61.8% Fibo.

EURAUD



During its trading after 1.6600 mark test, the EURAUD kept following the rectangle formation, with 1.6255-60 acting as a strong resistance with 1.5590-80 being downside support, that restricted its advance on Tuesday. Currently, 1.5900, 23.6% Fibo of its April – August advance, seems acting as nearby support, breaking which 1.5800 and 1.5650 are likely consecutive rests that it could avail prior to targeting the rectangle support, 1.5590-80. On an extended decline below 1.5580, 38.2% Fibo, near 1.5480, can become an intermediate support during its downtrend to 1.5275-80 support-area, including July highs and five month old ascending trend-line support. On the upside, 1.6150 and the 1.6255-60 can provide immediate resistances to limit the pair's advance while a break of 1.6260 on a closing basis can fuel the pair's upward trajectory towards August highs, near 1.6600 round figure mark.

EURCHF



Failure to break 1.0980 – 1.0985 horizontal region on a closing basis is likely pulling down the EURCHF towards 23.6% Fibo of its May – September advance, near 1.0865-60. Should it fail to hold the said Fibo support, the pair can plunge to 1.0825-20 important support, encompassing 50-day SMA and ascending trend-channel support, while a break of which negates the bullish formation, making the pair vulnerable to plunge towards 38.2% Fibo, near 1.0750 and to the 1.0665-60 support area, including 50% Fibo. Meanwhile, a close above 1.0985 can fuel the pair's advance towards September highs of 1.1050 and to the ascending trend-channel resistance, near 1.1100 round figure mark. Moreover, sustained trading above 1.1100 may find 1.1300 and the 1.1400 as consecutive resistances.




“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Update - NZDCAD, AUDNZD and EURNZD

NZDCAD


On 1-hourly chart, the pair continues to rise along a short-term ascending trend-line support. But the up-move is restricted by another ascending trend-line resistance. The combination of two ascending trend-lines seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern, with immediate downside support near 0.8510-0.8500 area. Should the pair decisively weaken below this immediate support, confirming the bearish chart-pattern, the pair could immediately extend the weakness towards 0.8450-40 intermediate support before heading towards 0.8400 mark important support. Meanwhile, should the pair continue holding the ascending trend-line support and manages to move back above 0.8550 immediate horizontal resistance, it seems to make a fresh attempt to climb higher towards retesting the upper ascending trend-line resistance, currently near 0.8600 mark with 0.8560-70 acting as intermediate resistance.

AUDNZD


After once again failing to sustain its strength above 1.1300 mark, the pair has now dropped below 100-day SMA support for the first time since early May and is now trading close to immediate important support near 1.0950-30 zone. A sustained weakness below this immediate support now seems to open room for continuing the near-term downward trajectory towards testing the next important support at 200-day SMA, currently near 1.0750 region. However, should the pair manage to bounce back from this immediate strong support, 100-day SMA support break point, currently near 1.1065-70 area, now seems to act as immediate resistance. Although, momentum above 100-day SMA could witness a follow-up strength towards 1.1200 round figure mark, but any up-move beyond 1.1200 mark might continue to confront strong resistance near 1.1280-1.1300 zone.

EURNZD


Maintaining its range-bound move within a short-term rectangular formation on 4-hourly chart, the pair is trading close to the lower end of the trading range support near 1.7300-1.7280 zone. A decisive break below this immediate support, also coinciding with 50-day SMA, is likely to near-term corrective move, dragging the pair immediately towards 1.7000 mark support. The near-term corrective move could further get extended towards testing 100-day SMA support, currently near 1.6650 region. Meanwhile on the upside, 1.7490-1.7500 mark now seems to act as immediate resistance. Strength above this immediate resistance would reaffirm move within the defined trading range, thus lifting the pair back towards the upper end of the trading range resistance near 1.8000 mark with 1.7750 level acting as intermediate resistance.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
AUDJPY, GBPAUD and AUDCHF: Technical Overview

AUDJPY



Short-term ascending trend-line, connecting September lows, triggered AUDJPY bounce to the 85.00 horizontal resistance, which could open doors for the pair's extended recovery to a month-old descending trend-line resistance, presently near 85.80. Should it manage to break the 85.80, also surpassing the 86.00 round figure mark, encompassing 38.2% Fibo of its August decline, the pair can become strong enough to target 86.90 – 87.00 important horizontal resistance that limits its near-term advance. Moreover, a closing break of 87.00 can pump the pair towards surpassing 89.00 mark. Meanwhile, failure to break the 85.00 mark, as happened during last weekend, can quickly pullback the pair to 84.00 – 83.90 support area, breaking which the mentioned ascending trend-line, currently near 83.00, provides a strong downside support to the pair. On a further decline below 83.00, the pair becomes vulnerable to re-test August lows, near 82.00, which if broken, can thrust the pair towards 80.70-65 support area, encompassing 61.8% FE of the said August downturn.

GBPAUD



Following its pullback from the four month old ascending trend-line break, the GBPAUD continued extending into the breakdown direction and ticked below the 50-day SMA, indicating further declines towards 2.1300, 2.1200 and 2.1100 – 2.1080 immediate consecutive supports. Given the pair's inability to break 2.1080, indicating 38.2% Fibo of its May – August advance, the pair becomes more likely to target 2.0700 area, with 2.0850 being intermediate rest. However, a close above 50-day SMA, currently near 2.1500 round figure mark, coupled with the clear break of 23.6% Fibo, near 2.1580, may fuel the pair towards 2.1800 resistance region, breaking which 2.1950 and the 2.2100 horizontal mark are likely following levels during its sustained up-move. Given the pair's ability to surpass 2.2100 on a closing basis, chances of its rally towards August highs, near 2.2400, can't be denied.

AUDCHF



Although, short-term ascending trend-line limits the near-term decline of AUDCHF, the 0.6950-70 horizontal resistance, encompassing 50-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – August decline, is likely restricting the immediate up-move by the pair. If the pair successfully encounters the 0.6970 area, chances of its rally to 0.7085 and the six month old descending trend-line, near 0.7145-50, becomes brighter. Moreover, a clear break of 0.7150 can make the pair strong enough to rally towards 38.2% Fibo, near 0.7250. On the downside, failure to break the 0.6970 can continue signaling importance of 0.6800 and the mentioned trend-line support, near 0.6730, are immediate rests. Should it break the 0.6730, the pair becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 0.6650-40 re-test prior to aiming for August lows, near 0.6540.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Check - EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY

EURUSD


The near-term movement of the pair seems to be contained within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. The pair, however, now seems to face difficulty in clearing a short-term descending trend-line resistance near 1.1300 mark and is hovering around 200-day SMA region. Should the pair manage to clear 1.1300 mark resistance, it is likely to immediately dart towards its next strong resistance near 1.1450 region. Alternatively, sustained weakness below 200-day SMA, currently near 1.1150 level, the pair could possibly drift towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.1050-40 area. In the broader context, the near-term ascending trend-channel when considered with the pair's sharp fall from near 1.4000 mark seems to constitute towards formation of a bearish Flag chart-pattern and hence a decisive break below the lower trend-line support of the channel might now trigger a fresh leg of weakness for the pair.

GBPUSD


The pair's recovery from 1.5100 round figure mark, nearing 61.8% Fib. retracement level support of April to June up-swing, is now facing immediate resistance at 50% Fib. retracement level near 1.5240-50 area. Recovery beyond 1.5240-50 resistance is likely to be capped at the very important 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 1.5320-30 area. Meanwhile, 61.8% Fib. retracement level near 1.5100-1.5080 area might continue providing immediate support on the downside. A decisive break below 1.5100 mark support is likely to increase the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower towards testing the very important psychological mark support near 1.5000 region. Considering that the pair has repeated failed to sustain its strength above 200-day SMA and a subsequent weakness below 1.5100 mark support is likely to confirm continuation of the pair's near-term weakening trend.

USDCHF


Although the pair seems to face strong hurdle in clearing a descending trend-line resistance extending from Jan. high through highs tested in March, August and September, it now seems to move along a short-term ascending trend-line support. The ascending trend-line support, currently near 0.9660 level, also coincides with 23.6% Fib. retracement level of Jan. low March highs up-move. Weakness below this immediate support confluence seems to reaffirm strong headwind for the pair marked by the descending trend-line resistance, currently near 0.9810-20 area. A decisive break below 0.9660 level support is likely to drag the pair back towards 0.9520 intermediate support before heading towards 0.9400-0.9380 support area, marked by 38.2% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile, a sustained strength above 0.9810-20 strong resistance now seems to trigger a sharp up-move immediately towards reclaiming the parity mark.


USDJPY


Following it sharp drop in late August, the pair seems to have moved within a short-term trading range as depicted by a Rectangular formation on 4-hourly chart. The current consolidation, however, is happening below the very important 200-day SMA, suggesting higher possibilities of break on the downside. Hence, a decisive break below the lower end of the trading range support near 118.50 region seems to reaffirm expectations of extension of the pair's near-term corrective move, back towards retesting August lows support near 116.20-116.00 zone. Alternatively, decisive up-move beyond the top end of trading range resistance, near 121.20-30 area might negate any near-term bearish expectations and boost the pair back towards 123.00 mark intermediate resistance, before testing 123.80-124.00 mark strong resistance.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Overview: Important GBP Pairs

GBPCAD



Having breached its 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of April – August advance, near 1.9920 – 1.9900 area, the 1.9780-70 support-zone, coupled with oversold RSI, seems forcing the GBPCAD to trade in a consolidation phase ahead of BoE and Canadian labor market details, scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday respectively. However, with recent strength in CAD, coupled with not so good UK numbers, chances are higher that the pair could break its 1.9770 support and plunge towards the 50% Fibo, near 1.9550, also marked as February high. Should the pair extends the downward trajectory below 1.9550, chances of its decline to 1.9350 and 61.8% Fibo, near 1.9200 round figure mark can't be denied. Meanwhile, a hawkish BoE and weaker Canadian numbers can make the pair surpass 1.9920, opening room for 2.0080 immediate resistance, breaking which 23.6% Fibo, near 2.0300 can restrict the pair's further advance. Moreover, on a sustained trading above 2.0300, the pair becomes capable enough to target 2.0500 resistance region.

GBPNZD



Following its confirmation of "Rising-Wedge" bearish technical formation, the GBPNZD prices run down towards the lowest level in more than two months; however, 100-day SMA, near 2.3240, seems currently acting as strong immediate support to limit the pair's further decline; though, 2.3500 round figure mark may provide near-term cap to the pair prices. Given the pair's ability to close below 2.3240, it can quickly plunge to 2.2900 mark, encompassing 38.2% Fibo. of its January – August advance, breaking which 2.2670-60 may provide an intermediate rest to the pair's downside prior to testing 50% Fibo, near 2.2200 psychological level. On the upside break of 2.3500, the 2.3580 and the 2.3760, as indicating 23.6% Fibo, are likely consecutive levels that the pair could witness during its successive advance. Further, an extension of uptrend surpassing 2.3760 can make the pair capable enough to surpass 2.4000 mark.

GBPAUD



Break of 2.1400 horizontal mark seems forcing the GBPAUD towards 2.1225-15 immediate downside support, breaking which 2.1080, encompassing 38.2% Fibo of its May – August rally, and the 50-day SMA, near 2.0950, are likely consecutive rests that the pair could avail prior to testing 2.0850 and the 50% Fibo, near 2.0675 downside levels. Alternatively, an upside break and close above 2.1400 negates the recent trigger to decline and can pull the pair back to 23.6% Fibo, near 2.1580. On an extended advance beyond 2.1580, the 2.1750 and 2.1850 can act as intermediate resistances before the pair could rally to 2.2100 important horizontal resistance. Moreover, an aggressive break of 2.2100 can quickly fuel the pair toward August highs, near 2.2400 psychological level.

GBPJPY



Even if the GBPJPY managed to break 185.30 – 185.00 horizontal support area, including 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo of its October 2014 – June 2015 advance, a year old ascending trend-channel support seems restricting the pair's immediate downside near 181.00 round figure mark while 50% Fibo, near 182.00, is likely providing quick support to the pair. If the pair manages to break 181.00 on a closing basis, chances of its decline to 180.00 psychological magnet and 178.50, as indicated by 61.8% Fibo, gets stronger. On an extended decline below 178.50, the pair becomes vulnerable to test 175.70 – 175.50 horizontal support area. However, strength of the ascending trend-channel signals the pair's bounce towards 184.00 resistance prior to re-testing 185.30 – 185.00 important support-turned-resistance area. Moreover, a daily close above 185.30 can trigger the pair's rally to 187.35-50 resistance region before targeting 23.6% Fibo, near 189.00 round figure mark.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Update - NZD Pairs

NZDUSD


After falling to a fresh 2015 lows, the pair has managed to register a descent recovery within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation visible on 4-hourly chart. The pair has now cleared its immediate resistance near 0.6590-0.6600 area, marking 23.6% Fib. retracement level of its April to Sept. downfall and from current levels seems to extend its near-term recovery towards testing an important resistance confluence near 0.6660-70 area, comprising of the upper trend-line resistance of the channel and 100-day SMA. Further, a decisive strength above this immediate strong resistance seems to set the stage for continuing the upward trajectory, initially towards 0.6710-20 intermediate resistance before darting towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.6800 mark. Meanwhile on the downside, 23.6% Fib. retracement level, near 0.6600-0.6590 area, now seems to protect immediate downside. Weakness below this immediate support is likely limited at the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.6500 round figure mark. Only a decisive weakness back below 0.6500 mark might negate expectations of any further recovery for the pair, thus making it vulnerable to resume its downward trajectory.

AUDNZD


After failing to hold an important support near 1.1070-60 area, comprising of 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of April to August up-swing, the pair below a strong support near 1.0930-20 area, which was held since June. Although the pair seems to have found some support at 50% Fib. retracement level near 1.0860-50 region, but considering its break below an important support the pair seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards testing its next major support near 1.0750 region, marking 200-day SMA. The fall could further get extended towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level support near 1.0660 level. On the upside, 1.0930-40 area, important support break-point, now seems to act as immediate resistance. A decisive strength above this immediate resistance set the stage for an additional up-move, initially towards reclaiming 1.1000 round figure mark resistance and further towards retesting the very important support turned resistance near 1.1060-70 zone.

EURNZD


Following a consolidation within a rectangular formation on 4-hourly chart, the pair finally broke on the downside to subsequently weaken below 1.7000 mark. Should the pair continue trading below 1.7000 mark, it seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards testing its next major support near 1.6800 mark, also nearing 100-day SMA support. Failure to hold this important support is likely to continue dragging the pair in the near-term, towards testing its next support near 1.6300 mark. Alternatively, should the pair manages to hold 1.7000 mark and move back above 1.7050-60 immediate horizontal resistance, it is likely to move higher towards retesting the previous trading range support break-point, now turned immediate strong resistance, near 1.7250-60 region.

NZDCAD


The pair's recovery momentum from its lowest level since Sept. 2013 provided the required boost to lift the pair beyond a very strong resistance confluence near 0.8590-0.8600 area. This important resistance comprised of a descending trend-line resistance extending from March 2015, 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level of the pair's fall from March highs to lower level tested in August. From current levels, the pair clearly seems to continue climbing higher, initially towards 0.8700 intermediate resistance and eventually towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.8800 mark. Meanwhile, the resistance break-point near 0.8580 level now seems to protect immediate downside for the pair. Even if the pair fails to hold this immediate resistance turned support area, it is likely to find support near 0.8500 mark, which in the near-term seems to act as a firm base for the pair.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
AUDUSD, EURAUD, AUDCAD and AUDJPY: Technical Outlook

AUDUSD



Break of five month old descending trend-line resistance triggered the AUDUSD rally towards the highest levels in nearly a month; however, short-term downward slanting line, coupled with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – September decline, near 0.7215-20, seems currently holding the pair's immediate advance. Should it manage to close above 0.7220, the 0.7280, indicating September highs, can provide an intermediate resistance to the pair during its successive up-move towards 0.7380-85 important resistance, including 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo. Moreover, sustained break of 0.7385 can make the pair capable enough to target 50% Fibo, near 0.7525-30. Given the pair fails to break 0.7220, the 0.7160-50 can be an immediate support, breaking which 0.7085-90 and 0.7030 are likely downside levels that it can witness during further decline. However, 0.6940-30 and the 0.6900 are likely strong supports that could restrict the pair's additional downside.

EURAUD



Following its reversal from 1.6250 range resistance, the EURAUD currently trades near a month old rectangle formation support, also testing the 50-day SMA; Although, a close below 1.5560-50 becomes necessary for the pair to aim towards 1.5470 and 1.5400 supports, as indicated by the 38.2% Fibo of its April – August rally and more than a five month old ascending trend-line respectively. However, 1.5270-80 horizontal mark can limit the pair's further decline following successive southward journey below 1.5400. Alternatively, a daily close above 1.5650 immediate resistance can quickly fuel the pair towards 1.5770-75 and to the 23.6% Fibo, near 1.5900 round figure mark. Moreover, on a clear break of 1.5900, the pair may witness 1.6000 and 1.6150 as follow-on resistance prior to re-visiting the range resistance, near 1.6250.

AUDCAD



Failure to break 0.9245-40 horizontal support quickly fueled the AUDCAD to near 0.9400 round figure mark; though, 0.9420-30 area, including important horizontal support-turned-resistance and two month old descending trend-line, can limit the pair's further advances. Should the pair manage to close above 0.9430, chances of its rally to 0.9500 – 0.9510, including 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo of its January – September decline, can't be denied. On a sustained break of 0.9510, the 0.9550 and the 0.9650 are likely upside levels that the pair can mark. Meanwhile, a daily close below 0.9350 can pull the pair back to 0.9300 and the 0.9245-40 support levels, breaking which the pair become vulnerable to re-test September lows, near 0.9150.

AUDJPY



Even if the AUDJPY managed to break more than a month old symmetrical triangle resistance, near 86.30, the 86.90 – 87.10 horizontal resistance could limit further up-side by the pair, pulling it back towards 86.00 re-test, encompassing 38.2% Fibo of August decline. However, pair's ability to break 87.10 on a closing basis, also surpassing the 50% Fibo, near 87.35, can quickly fuel its rally towards 88.60 and the 89.30 resistance levels with 87.90 being intermediate stop. On the downside, a close below 86.00 is likely extending the pair's decline to 85.00 psychological level, breaking which 23.6% Fibo, near 84.50 and the triangle support, presently at 83.30, are likely consecutive supports that it could witness prior to re-visiting the August lows, near 82.00 round figure mark.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Outlook: Important CAD Pairs

USDCAD



Barring a bit of short-covering on Wednesday, the USDCAD kept running its decline following break of two month old ascending trend-channel support, signaling re-test of November 2014 – March 2015 upswing's 61.8% FE, near 1.2930 and then the 1.2900 round figure mark. However, 1.2830 – 1.2800 important resistance-turned-support region could limit the pair's further declines following 1.2900 break. Should the pair manage to dip below 1.2800, it can quickly test 1.2550-60 support area prior to targeting 1.2355-50 horizontal support mark. On the upside, 1.3080 seems acting as an immediate resistance, breaking which 1.3150 and the 1.3300 are likely consecutive upside levels that it could witness during successive up-move. Moreover, a sustained break above 1.3300 can accelerate the pair's upward trajectory toward September highs, near 1.3450, followed by the 100% FE level, near 1.3550 mark.

EURCAD



Even if the EURCAD managed to break six month old ascending trend-line, and close below 50-day SMA for the first time since February, a month old range support, also including 38.2% Fibo. of its April – August advance, near 1.4590 – 1.4600, reimbursed some of the pair's recent losses. Currently, the mentioned support-turned-resistance line, coupled with the 50-day SMA, near 1.4775 seems limiting its immediate advance, breaking which 1.4865 and the 23.6% Fibo, near 1.4960, are likely consecutive resistances that the pair could witness during its sustained up-move. In case the pair surpass 1.4960, the range resistance, near 1.5115-20 is likely strong level to restrict the pair's additional up-move. Meanwhile, a daily close below 1.4590 could trigger the pair's fresh downside towards 1.4490-80 horizontal resistance-turned-support, breaking which the pair becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 1.4285, encompassing 50% Fibo of the said move.

CADJPY



Following its plunge to the lowest levels last seen in January 2013, the CADJPY kept following the well established rectangle formation. The pair did bounce from the 88.60 range support during late September and could rally towards the range resistance, near 92.60 on Wednesday; however, it failed to break the same region that also includes the 50-day SMA, signaling a test to 91.00 round figure mark. Should the pair manage to break 91.00, the 23.6% Fibo of its June – August decline, near 90.60, and the 90.00 psychological mark can provide intermediate supports to the pair prior to its plunge to said range support, near 88.60. On a further downside below 88.60, chances of the pair's southward journey to August lows, near 87.30, and to the 61.8% FE of its July – August decline, near 86.30, can't be denied. Alternatively, an upside break of 92.60 can quickly fuel the pair's advance to 93.00 round figure mark prior to re-visiting 94.00 – 94.10 horizontal mark, including 50% Fibo. In an extended advance beyond 94.10, the pair becomes capable enough to look for 95.90 – 96.00 resistance region, including 61.8% Fibo.

CADCHF



CADCHF's bounce from 0.7200 – 0.7195 horizontal support seems struggling with the 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its late-January – March advance; however, comparative strength of the CAD, backed by recent improvement in Crude prices, favors the pair's quick up-move towards 0.7500 round figure mark. Given the pair's successful break of 0.7500, the 0.7550-60 resistance region, encompassing 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo, becomes strong upside level for the pair to break in order to target 0.7650. On the downside, a clear break of 0.7370 immediate support can pull the pair back to 0.7300 psychological level, near to 61.8% Fibo, breaking which 0.7270 and the 0.7200 – 0.7195 range support are likely consecutive levels that the pair could witness during its successive decline. Moreover, an extended decline below 0.7195, also breaking the 76.4% Fibo, near 0.7150, can make the pair weaker enough to look for sub-0.7000 region.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
Technical Outlook - EURCHF, CHFJPY, AUDCHF and GBPCHF

EURCHF


On 4-hourly chart, the pair remains within an ascending trend-channel formation but now seems to face difficulty in clearing a short-term descending trend-line resistance near 1.0950-60 area. Sustained strength above this immediate resistance is likely to reaffirm the pair's near-term move within the ascending trend-channel and thus is likely to lift the pair immediately towards reclaiming 1.1000 psychological mark resistance before attempting a further up-move towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.1130 level. This 1.1130 level resistance also coincides with 61.8% Fib. retracement level of the pair's serious fall on Jan. 15. However, should the pair fails to conquer its immediate resistance and extends its reversal it is likely to find support at the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.0870-60 zone, also nearing 50% Fib. retracement level. Failure to hold this immediate strong support, marking an end of the near-term ascending trend, the pair could sliding towards retesting Aug. 19-20 lows support near 1.0730-10 area. The downfall could further get extended towards the pair's next major support confluence near 1.0600 mark, which comprises of 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level.

CHFJPY


The pair continues to move within a well-established descending trend-channel formation on daily chart with the upper trend-line of the channel, near 124.20-40 area, acting as immediate resistance. A sustained move above this immediate resistance, leading to a move above 125.00 mark resistance, would mark a clear break above the descending channel. This would eventually pave way for continuing the near-term recovery trend towards its next major resistance near 128.50-70 region, with 126.00 and 127.00 round figure marks acting as intermediate resistance levels. Alternatively, reversal from the upper trend-line resistance and a subsequent drop back below 123.00 mark immediate support is likely to drag the pair back towards its immediate strong support near 122.10-122.00 mark. Failure to hold 122.00 mark support now seems to trigger resumption of the pair's downward trajectory, initially towards March 2015 lows support near 120.00 psychological mark and eventually towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel.

AUDCHF


On 4-hourly chart, the pair has been steadily moving higher within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation and is currently witnessing reversal from the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. The upper trend-line resistance of the channel, near 0.7000-0.7020 area, also coincides with 61.8% Fib. retracement level of the pair's down-swing from August high to lows. From current levels, 0.6900 mark, nearing 50% Fib. retracement level, seems to act as immediate support. Drop below 0.6900 mark is likely to drag the pair further towards 38.2% Fib. retracement level intermediate support near 0.6830-25 area before heading towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.6775 region. Meanwhile, strength above 0.7000 round figure mark resistance might continue to face strong resistance at the upper trend-line of the channel, currently near 0.7040-50 area, also coinciding with 100-day SMA. A decisive strength above 100-day SMA should provide the required momentum to lift the pair back towards testing August high resistance near 0.7300 mark.

GBPCHF


Although the pair seems to have held and rebound from an important horizontal support near 1.4670-50 area, it is yet to clear a short-term descending trend-channel resistance near 1.4990-1.5000 psychological mark. The combination of the horizontal support and descending trend-line resistance now seems to constitute towards a bearish descending triangular formation on daily chart. From current levels, however, the pair is likely to find immediate support near 1.4750 level, which if broken seems to drag the pair back towards 1.4650 important horizontal support. A decisive break below 1.4650 support and a subsequent weakness below the very important 200-day SMA, currently near 1.4600 mark, the pair should confirm the bearish triangular formation indicating a further downward pressure in the near-term. On the upside, 1.4900 mark now seems to have emerged as immediate resistance. This is followed by the very important descending trend-line resistance near 1.5000 mark and only after a decisive strength above the descending trend-line resistance, the pair might negate the near-term bearish expectations.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets
 
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