Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for October 12-18

Kira Iukhtenko

The Fed’s rate hike timing remains the most important topic for the currency traders. FOMC meeting minutes released last week disappointed. The members discussed the increased economic risks, not the need for a rate hike. Combination of the “dovish” minutes with the weak September labor market data killed the demand for the US currency. Chances for a rate hike this year are gradually declining.

On the new week, on Wednesday, we will watch September retail sales figures. According to the forecasts, data could render temporarily support for the US currency. However, the rally is unlikely to last long: CPI on Thursday is expected to show price growth slowdown.

What’s more, US companies are to release Q3 earnings on October 8-22. Data will give a clue to the US economic activity and set a new trend for risk sentiment.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6688

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 12-18

By Elizabeth Belugina

The past week turned out to be positive for the euro. Despite the weak production data from Germany and the dovish tone of September ECB meeting minutes, the euro held its ground and managed to rise above the August-September resistance line and test levels above 1.13.

US dollar didn’t have much strength over the euro, as the data from the United States weren’t very bright either, plus the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes indicated that American central bank is concerned about the weak global economic growth and is not in a hurry to raise the interest rate. Weak NFP released a weak earlier also contributed to the lower expectations of the Fed’s rate hike.

Next week there won’t be a lot of news from the euro area. Pay attention to Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday and the region’s final September inflation figures on Friday. US economic calendar is more filled with important events like the publication of retail sales data on Wednesday and inflation figures on Friday.

In addition, beware of Chinese trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday: for now the single currency keeps strengthening on lower figures of China.

As a result, the balance of risks for EUR/USD in the near-term is to the upside. Initial resistance is at 1.1350 (the top of the short-term rising channel) and a fix above this level will open the way to 1.1400 and 1.1460 (September high/resistance since May 2014). The area of 1.1460/1.1500 will likely limit the upside of EUR/USD ahead of the ECB’s meeting on October 22 as the European Central Bank doesn’t want higher euro and can make some announcements about the additional quantitative easing (QE) which will hit the single currency. Support is at 1.1250 and 1.1170.

Daily EUR/USD

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6694

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 12-18

By Elizaveta Belugina

USD/JPY has spent another week trading sideways. This time the range has narrowed to 120.60/119.60.

The pair lacks drivers to move out of the current corridor. The upside is limited as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) didn’t announce additional monetary stimulus at its October 7thmeeting, so yen didn’t weaken. Moreover, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting confirmed the central bank’s concerns about the global economic slowdown and the fact it is in no rush to raise interest rates. At the same time, the downside is also limited, because many investors still believe that the BOJ will ease policy further at its October 30th meeting. In addition, despite the weak September nonfarm payrolls (NFP), the expectations of the Fed rate hike this year are still alive.

These are the factors, which are keeping USD/JPY in range. A breakthrough will come only if dollar/yen closes above 121.50 or below 118.50. In our view, the possibility of a breakthrough next week isn’t very high. First of all, Japanese economic calendar looks rather empty. The most important event will be the release of the BOJ meeting minutes on Tuesday, but we don’t think that it will be a market mover. The US will publish several important pieces of data from Wednesday to Friday. These releases can push USD/JPY to the edges of the range, but unless we get some really big surprises they won’t change the market’s overall view on the Fed.

Daily USD/JPY

One thing we should mention, however, that USD/JPY still correlates with the market’s risk sentiment. Risk sentiment will be affected by Chinese economic statistics – trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. As few expect robust figures from China, growth in USD/JPY will likely be limited ahead of these releases. Also note that both in the United States and in Japan there will be bank holidays on Monday, so USD/JPY can make volatile moves on relatively small events like the speeches of the FOMC officials.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6693

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for October 12-18

Kira Iukhtenko

UK currency jumped by almost 300 pips since early October. The major reason is the weakness of the US currency and technical conditions. The cable reached our target of 1.5330. However, bearish BOE comments on Thursday paused the rally.

Cable is trading in a medium-term bearish channel formed in June. Fix above 1.5330 will open the way to our next targets at 1.5500 and 1.5580. In the current volatile market conditions, our targets could be hit in the coming days. Break above 1.5500 will confirm the trend reversal.

On Tuesday, we’ll be watching the UK inflation figures. It is expected to stay around zero. On Wednesday, we’ll be watching the labor market figures. UK employment has been showing positive dynamics as of late.

Chart 1. GBP/USD Daily

Chart 2. GBP/USD H4

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6691

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. In line with the forecast, the formation of the downward impulse wave A was completed. At the final part, we see the beginning of correction.

H4. As expected, we saw a powerful movement within the [c]. The pair will likely continue rising at the new week. We don’t recommend to go short for now as the pair may be going higher and higher.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6698

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Weekly. The market keeps forming the multiyear uptrend. The pair is currently forming corrective wave (IV), let us review its inner structure.

H4. At the new week, we expect formation of the final part of the converging horizontal triangle [iv], after which we’ll see collapse of price or its slow decline. The approximate scheme of the upcoming move is shown on the chart.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6697

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. After finishing the bullish correction wave , which took form of a triple three, we saw the beginning of a new downtrend [C]. In the coming weeks the pair will likely decline.

H4. The final part of the upside Zigzag 2 is ending. At the beginning of the week this wave will be over, and we will see a decline in the impulse wave 3.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6696

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. The market keeps moving within the final part of a complicated corrective wave (4). The pair has to form the final part – коррекцию [Z] of y of (4).

H4. It seems that the wave [X] took form of the converging horizontal triangle. After this triangle was formed, the bulls have immediately started to push the prices up. The uptrend will likely continue at the new week.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6695

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 12

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1230

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.10, TAKE PROFIT 121.33, STOP LOSS 119.55

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4735, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4765 (revised)

EUR/GBP:Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

GBP/JPY:Hold LONG from 183.10, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.95

NZD/USD:Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6815, STOP LOSS 0.6530

USD/CAD:Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.5449, STOP LOSS 1.5210

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9660, TAKE PROFIT 0.9482, STOP LOSS 0.9741

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7140

EUR/JPY: BUY at 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.03

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6707

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 13

By Elizabeth Belugina

On Monday there were some hawkish comments from the Fed’s member Lockhart, but with the US banks on holiday and the market being tired of guessing about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike the greenback didn’t react. On Tuesday there won’t be much of the news from America.

The advance of EUR/USD has paused ahead of 1.1400. Germany will release economic sentiment figures at 09:00 GMT (negative forecast). Support is at 1.1350, 1.1318 and 1.1280. Further resistance us at 1.1460.

Pound is approaching resistance levels, but has some room for growth. GBP/USD has once again risen above the 200-day MA at 1.5320. As long as cable is above this point, it has a chance to rise to resistance is at 1.5380 ahead of 1.5435. The UK will release September inflation data at 08:30 GMT. Later in the day, there will be comments from the Bank of England’s officials. Support is at 1.5320 and then at 1.5278 and 1.5250.

USD/JPY was trading in the 120.15 area. In the absence of news from the United States and Japan the pair will be driven by the market’s risk sentiment. Lower than expected Chinese trade balance will bring it to 119.70 and probably to 119.25. Resistance is at 120.90/121.00.

AUD/USD rose to the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 100-day MA in the 0.7370 area. The pair has almost reached 38.2% Fibo of the decline since May and is overbought. The publication of China’s trade balance data is a risk for a bullish Aussie. Support is at 0.7275 and 0.7200. Resistance is at 0.7385 and 0.7440.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6717