Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Yen strengthening
13 October 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair ended up again next to the four-hour Ichimoku cloud during yesterday's trading session. The bears are increasing pressure and trying to break the cloud downwards, which is why, the Senkou Span A and B lines cannot reinforce its bullish character. More to that, the pair has gotten into the negative zone this morning, which could affect further trading since consolidation under the cloud may mean the end of the bulls' attempts to recover the market.

Technical levels: support – 119.60; resistance – 120.00.

Trade recommendations: off the market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6719http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6719

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Aussie at new heights
13 October 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair formed a new extremum for the past month yesterday. Due to quite agressive actions of the bulls the currency pair rate has soared under the 74th figure, breaking the last week's high of 0.7340. Bullish sentiment persists in the market, but this morning, we are witnessing the rate's decline into the Tenkan-Kijun channel. Obviously, the market needs a little rest to resume the uptrend. Testing of the Kijun-sen line levels is probable to be followed by the pair's new dash to the 0.7430/40 mark.

Technical levels: support – 0.7270; resistance – 0.7380, 0.7400.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7280; SL — 0.7260; TP1 — 0.7400; TP2 — 0.7430.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6718

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 13

Trade positions of Danske Bank: not so many changed from Monday.

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1230

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.10, TAKE PROFIT 121.33, STOP LOSS 119.55

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

EUR/JPY:Hold LONG from 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.03

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 183.10, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.95

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6815, STOP LOSS 0.6530

USD/CAD: Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.5449, STOP LOSS 1.5210

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9660, TAKE PROFIT 0.9482, STOP LOSS 0.9741

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7140

EUR/CAD: SHORT stopped, possibly sell

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*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6725

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 14
Kira Iukhtenko



Weak China trade data lowered the risk appetite on Tuesday, putting the commodity currencies under pressure. On Wednesday, we will be watching China’s CPI and US retail sales and PPI. These events could deepen the slowdown on the financial markets.

AUD/USD is forming an engulfing candle on the daily chart. A daily close below 0.7270 will confirm the end of the early-October rally. We recommend selling the Australian dollar in this case.

EUR/USD remains sustainable despite the drop of risk appetite. We concede a spike towards the 1.1500 resistance in the coming sessions. After that, the pair could enter a consolidative phase.

GBP/USD was the main driver of the session, falling by more than 100 pips on weak UK CPI. Drop below 1.5330 was a bearish signal. We expect the pair to float to the 1.5160 support in the coming sessions. Recovery above 1.5330 is needed to negate the new bearish move.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6731

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 15

By Kira Iukhtenko



US figures on Wednesday pulled the US Dollar down below the 94.50 support. Retail sales and PPI disappointed the markets and lowered expectations for a rate hike in 2015. On Thursday, we’ll watch the US CPI and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. US currency is expected to stay under pressure until the end of the week.

EUR/USD is testing new highs above the 1.1400 mark. As you may see from the H4 chart, trend resistance has been broken today. We still target the 1.1500 mark and expect the pullback from here. Pay attention to the 55-week SMA at 1.1440 – this is a strong resistance.

GBP/USD chart remains highly volatile. After a drop by 100 points on Tuesday, the pair gained almost 200 points on Wednesday. With the bulls now dominating the market, we now see space for growth to 1.5500. Support is seen at 1.5380 and 1.5330.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6744

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 15

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1263 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 119.46, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 118.59

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9301 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9601

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0 .7140

USD/CAD: Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6882 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.6610 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/GBP:Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7525 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7380 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG from 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.39 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: BUY at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 185.93, STOP LOSS 182.29

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.4795, TAKE PROFIT 1.5158, STOP LOSS 1.4675

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*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6750

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 16



The market’s sentiment is very changeable as it swings by the influence of data releases. US inflation data for September came in line with expectations with the core figures slightly exceeding forecast. All in all, traders were preparing for worse, so US dollar performed better after the figures came out. American unemployment claims turned out to be better than expected, though Empire State manufacturing index disappointed. On Friday, the United States will release industrial production and consumer sentiment data.

EUR/USD has almost reached 1.1500, but then was aggressively sold off. The euro was hit by comments of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny that the ECB is missing its inflation target and additional instruments are needed. Such talk increased the speculation of additional easing from the central bank. A close below 1.1400 will open the way for further declines. Support is at 1.1350 and 1.1315/00. Resistance is at 1.1460, 1.1500 and 1.1540.

GBP/USD was correcting after big gains on Wednesday and as it reached resistance in the 1.5500 zone (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5380 and 1.5320 (200-day MA). Above this point the pound retains potential for more upside. Resistance is at 1.5540 and 1.5600. MPC member Forbes will speak at 10:30 GMT.

USD/JPY fell to the 118.05 area. A close above 118.50 will allow the pair to recover to 119.50/70. Further resistance is at 120.35/50. On the downside, support is at 117.00. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak at 06:35 GMT.

AUD/USD made another test of the 100-day MA at 0.7360. Australian dollar was supported by the better risk sentiment on the expectations that the US Fed won’t raise rates this year. However, Australian employment declined in September. Resistance of the 2014-2015 trend in the 0.7400 area will be hard for the bulls to break. The pair may retest strong support in the 0.7200/7180 zone which guards the way to 0.7100. The Reserve Bank of Australian will release Financial Stability Review early on Friday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6757

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for October 19-25

Kira Iukhtenko



New week on the financial markets started with a bunch of Chinese releases. China’s economy rose more than expected in Q3, lowering uncertainty and leaving space for a Fed’s rate hike in 2015.

In our view view, the US dollar has room for recovery on the new week. Unexpectedly strong CPI released last week, upbeat quarterly corporate reports, improvement of the global sentiment – all that supports the ide of a rate hike in December. For now, the chance for that is around 30%. You should also note that the net USD longs decline to a 15-months low. The correction was deep enough no mitigate the oversold conditions for the greenback.

US economic calendar on the new week is rather light. The only events to watch are the housing market news on Tuesday. The Fed’s officials will deliver their last speeches before the October 28th meeting during the week. Yanet Yellen is scheduled to speak on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6775

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 19-25

By Elizabeth Belugina

In line with our expectations, the euro continued going up after it had broken above August-September resistance line. The European currency was supported by the market’s negative risk sentiment and weaker-than-expected US economic data. However, EUR/USD failed to overcome resistance in the 1.1500 area and went abruptly down on the dovish comments of the ECB Governing Council member Nowotny.

The first half of the next week will be relatively light on economic data from both Europe and the United States. All in all, the focus will be on the euro area. One has to pay great attention to the European Central Bank’s meeting and press conference on Thursday. Ahead of the meeting, the euro will clearly remain under pressure, as there is a chance that the regulator will make announcements about the monetary easing. Trading after the meeting will naturally depend on what the ECB president Mario Draghi says. The risks for the euro area bearish. Note that the euro area will also release flash manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday. If the ECB’s position doesn’t become clearer, the market will make its judgment on the basis of these data. The figures are unlikely to be very bright. The speculators’ short positions on euro have contracted, and now the single currency will be more vulnerable to the negative data.

China’s weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday did not provide a push higher for the euro: negative sentiment is smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China. Support is at 1.1260, 1.1215 and 1.1170. Resistance is at 1.1400, 1.1460 and 1.1500.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6778

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 19-25

By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week USD/JPY tested lower levels in the 118.05 area. It happened as traders pulled the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike further into future. Thus, the greenback lost its main bullish driver. Moreover, demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven was rather strong. By the end of the week, however, risk sentiment has somewhat improved, and a bullish ‘hammer’ candle was formed on the pair’s daily chart.

The US dollar is still supported by the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan: American economic data became better, and even with the Fed’s rate hike expectations diminished it’s clear that the Unites States will be the first to tighten policy. In addition, Japan lowered its assessment of the economy and industrial production last week. Still, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda once again sounded optimistic about Japanese economy and inflation on Friday. Japan’s unwillingness to add monetary stimulus is limiting USD/JPY on the upside. As a result, the pair is doomed to continue its sideways movement.

Next week Japanese economic calendar is almost empty: it will be the calm before the storm of the Bank of Japan’s meeting on October 30. There will not be many data from the US either. As a result, risk sentiment will be the main market mover. China released weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday, but negative sentiment was smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China.

The bears failed to make USD/JPY fix below 118.50. It emphasizes the fact that there is demand for the American currency in this area. Further support is at 117.00 (support line since 2012). Resistance is at 120.00, 120.35 and 120.90.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6777