Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - AUDUSD and AUDCHF

AUDUSD



The pair's reversal from October highs, also marking 100-day SMA resistance, has managed to find support near 0.7000 psychological mark, representing a short-term ascending trend-line support extending from multi-year lows tested in September. The pair has subsequently moved above 0.7100 mark and is currently trading close to a short-term descending trend-line resistance near 0.7120-30 area. A decisive break-through this immediate resistance, also coinciding with 50-day SMA, is likely to assist the pair back towards testing the very important resistance near 0.7200-0.7220 area. Alternatively, failure to conquer this immediate resistance and a sustained weakens below 0.7000 important support now seems to increase the possibilities of further downward trajectory, initially towards 0.6930-20 horizontal support (nearing 0.6900 round figure mark) before heading lower towards testing sub-0.6800 mark support.

AUDCHF



The pair extends its recovery from the all-time low levels within a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart. The pair is now trading above 200-day SMA for the first time since Jan. and is also close to the upper trend-line resistance of the channel near 0.7220-30 area. Should the ongoing bullish momentum assist the pair in conquering this immediate resistance, the pair could further extend the recovery towards retesting 0.7300-0.7310 strong resistance, marking highs tested in June and August this year. Meanwhile, considering that the pair is trading close to the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, weakness back below 200-day SMA is likely to find immediate support near 0.7120-0.7100 area. Weakness below 0.7100 mark is likely to be limited by a strong support near 0.7060-50 horizontal zone and a decisive break below this strong support might negate possibilities of any further recovery momentum, dragging the pair back towards retesting the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.7000 mark.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - GBPNZD, NZDJPY, NZDCAD and AUDNZD

GBPNZD



Although the pair's near-term corrective move managed to find support near 2.2400 area, it failed to clear an important resistance confluence near 2.3500-2.3510 area, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level of Sept.-Oct. fall, 100-day SMA and the upper trend-line resistance of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on 4-hourly chart. The pair subsequently has broken below the lower trend-line support of the channel and from current levels seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards testing 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 2.3260-50 area. On the upside, the ascending trend-channel support break-point, near 2.3440-50 area, now seems to act as immediate resistance. This is closely followed by strong resistance confluence near 2.3500-2.3510 area, which if conquered might negate any near-term bearish expectations, paving way for continuation of the pair's near-term up-move towards testing 61.8% Fib. retracement level resistance near 2.3780-2.3800 zone.


NZDJPY



After moving above 100-day SMA, the pair has been consolidating in a narrow range, forming a bullish Falling Wedge chart-pattern on 4-hourly chart. The pair continues to hold above 100-day SMA and now seems to have confirmed the bullish chart-pattern, suggesting resumption the near-term upward trajectory towards its next major resistance near 82.30-50 area, marking 50% Fib. retracement level of April to August down-leg. Meanwhile on the downside, break-out point of the Falling Wedge also nearing 100-day SMA support near 80.00-79.80 zone, now seems to protect immediate downside. This is followed by another strong support near 79.30-20 area, comprising of the lower descending trend-line support of the wedge and 50-day SMA support. Failure to sustain the break-out momentum and a subsequent drop back below 50-day SMA support now seems to trigger resumption of the prior weakening trend, back towards testing a very important support near 77.00-76.90 area, also coinciding with 23.6% Fib. retracement level.


NZDCAD



Although the pair failed to capitalise on its move beyond 200-day SMA for the first time since May 2015 and reversed from 50% Fib. retracement level of March to August downfall, it has still managed to hold an important support confluence near 0.8585-80 area, comprising of 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level. From current levels, should the pair extend its bounce from an important support confluence and moves back above 0.8700 mark immediate horizontal resistance, its seems to make a fresh attempt to retest 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 0.8850-60 area, with intermediate resistance at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 0.8800 mark. Alternatively, should the pair trades and sustains its weakness below 0.8600-0.8580 important support, it is likely to drift back below 0.8500 mark towards testing 0.8470-50 important horizontal support.


AUDNZD



After dropping to a five-month low in late October, the pair has managed to recover and move back above 200-day SMA. However, the pair now seems to confront a serious resistance in clearing an important resistance confluence near 1.1000-1.1010 region, comprising of 100-day SMA and 61.8% Fib. retracement level of its corrective move witnessed from Sept. highs to Oct. lows. Moreover, the pair seems to be in the process of forming a bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern on daily chart. Should the pair manage to decisively conquer this immediate resistance, it seems all set to resume its upward trajectory towards testing its next major resistance near 1.1200-1.1220 horizontal zone. However, should the pair fail to clear this strong resistance and decisively weaken below 1.0910-1.0900 support, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level and the lower trend-line support of the bearish pattern, it would confirm the bearish pattern. This could possibly open room for drop back towards re-testing 200-day SMA support, currently near 1.0780 level with 38.2% Fib. retracement level, near 1.0815-10 area, acting as intermediate support.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Outlook - GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPAUD

GBPUSD



Following a test of the lower trend-line support of a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart, the rebounded sharply and is now moving closer to 200-day SMA resistance, currently near 1.5340-50 area. Momentum above 200-day SMA might continue support the pair towards reclaiming 1.5500 psychological mark and aim towards testing the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 1.5550 region. On the downside, 1.5250-40 now seems to have emerged as immediate support, which if broken is likely to take the pair back towards 1.5100 round figure mark support. Reversal from near 200-day SMA resistance might continue dragging the pair towards testing sub-1.5000 important psychological mark support, also coinciding with the lower trend-line support of the channel.

EURGBP



On 1-hourly chart, the pair is oscillating within a well-established short-term descending trend-channel and is currently retracing from the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. Moreover, the pair is trading below 0.7000 mark and a subsequent break below 0.6980 level is likely to increase the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower in the near-term. The pair then could drop to test the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.6940-30 area, also coinciding with nearly 8-year low touched in July this year. Meanwhile, a move above 0.7000 mark might continue to face strong resistance at the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 0.7010-20 area. A decisive break-through the trend-channel resistance might negate the possibilities of a multi-year low levels and lift the pair back towards 0.7100 mark resistance.

GBPAUD



Even as the pair managed to move back above 100-day SMA, it failed to conquer a short-term descending trend-line resistance and has now dropped back below 100-day SMA. The pair is currently trading near its immediate support near 2.1160-50 area, which if broken is likely to drag the pair back to sub-2.1100 level intermediate support. Below 2.1100 mark, the pair might continue drifting lower, initially towards 2.0900-2.0890 horizontal support before heading towards a descending trend-line support, currently near 2.0700 mark. Alternatively, a bounce from current support level now seems to confront immediate resistance at 100-day SMA region, currently near 2.1370 level. A sustained strength back above 100-day SMA is likely to extend the up-move but might be capped at the descending trend-line strong resistance, currently near 2.1530-40 area.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview - EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD and AUDUSD

EURUSD



On 4-hourly chart, the pair has now moved within a short-term descending trend-channel and is currently rebounding from the lower trend-line support of the channel. From current levels, the pair is likely to confront resistance near 1.0680-1.0700 area, which if conquered is immediately followed by a strong resistance near 1.0740-50 area, marking the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. A decisive break-through the descending trend-channel resistance now seems to pave way for extension of the pair's near-term recovery move towards testing its next resistance near 1.0850 region. Meanwhile on the downside, 1.0600 round figure mark, closely followed by the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 1.0580 level, might continue providing immediate support. Failure to hold this important support has the potential to continue dragging the pair in the near-term towards retesting 1.0500 psychological mark support, tested earlier in Mar-Apr 2015.

USDJPY



The pair once again failed to sustain its strength above 123.50-60 area, possibly forming a bearish Double-Top chart pattern. Moreover, the pair has also broken below a short-term ascending trend-channel and is now trading close to its immediate strong horizontal support near 122.50-30 area. Sustained weakness below this immediate strong support, thus confirming the bearish chart-pattern, is likely to drag the pair towards testing its previous strong resistance, now turned support, near 121.50 region with 122.00 round figure mark acting as intermediate support. Meanwhile, bounce from current support levels now seems to face immediate resistance 122.80 level, which if conquered opens room for further momentum beyond 123.20-30 intermediate resistance towards retesting the very important resistance near 123.50-60 zone. Only a decisive strength above this strong resistance might negate possibilities of any near-term corrective move for the pair.

USDCAD



Although the pair continues to extend its near-term rebound from a short-term term ascending trend-line support, it now seems to be in the process of forming a bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern on daily chart. The formation, however, is not complete unless the pair decisively breaks below the lower ascending trend-line support, currently near 1.3100 mark, also coinciding with 100-day SMA support. From current level, till the pair continues holding above 1.3300 mark immediate support, it is likely to make a fresh attempt towards reclaiming 1.3400-1.3420 strong resistance area. Sustained strength above this immediate resistance is likely to lift the pair towards another ascending trend-line resistance (forming part of the bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern) currently near 1.3640-50 area. Alternatively, weakness below 1.3300 mark and a subsequent drop below 1.3250 level seems more likely to take the pair back towards retesting the very important support confluence near 1.3120-1.3100 area.

AUDUSD




The pair continues to hover around 0.7200 mark confluence region, comprising of 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level of May to Sept. down-leg. Should the pair manage to extend its near-term recovery beyond 0.7250 level, the momentum is likely to lift the pair towards testing 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance, near 0.7385-0.7400 region. However, failure to extend its near-term recovery and a subsequent weakness back below 0.7160-50 immediate horizontal support, has the potential to drag the pair back below 0.7100 round figure mark support, towards testing a short-term ascending trend-line support, currently near 0.7050 level. Further, a break below the trend-line support might now expose a retest of recent lows support near 0.6930-10 region.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and NZDJPY

EURJPY



The pair continues to oscillate within a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart and after breaking below an intermediate horizontal support near 131.00 mark, the pair is now trading close to the lower trend-line support of the channel, near 130.00 psychological mark. Should the pair extend its weakness below 130.00 level support, marking the descending channel break-down, it could immediately slide to 129.00 round figure mark intermediate support before heading lower towards retesting March 2015 daily closing lows support near 127.20-127.00 area. Meanwhile, a bounce from the current support levels might now confront immediate resistance near 131.00 mark. This is closely followed by another strong resistance near 131.80-132.00 region. Only a sustained strength above 131.00 mark resistance and a subsequent move above 132.00 mark might negate possibilities of any further depreciating move, thus paving way for extension of the near-term recovery.

AUDJPY



Extending its bounce from the lower trend-line support of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart, the pair has now trading comfortably above 100-day SMA for the first time since July 2015. From current levels, the pair seems to continue trending higher towards testing its immediate horizontal resistance near 89.75-89.80 area. Should the ongoing momentum assist the pair to surpass this horizontal resistance, the pair then might be aiming towards testing its next major resistance near 91.80-92.00 region, marking the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. On the downside, 88.40-30 area now seems to have emerged as immediate support for the pair. This is closely followed by a very important support confluence near 87.70-60 region, comprising of 100-day SMA and the lower trend-line support of the channel. Only a decisive weakness back below this important support confluence might negate expectations of any further near-term recovery for the pair.

GBPJPY



The pair's bounce from the lower trend-line support of an ascending trend-channel formation on daily chart and a subsequent move within a short-term ascending trend-channel failed to lift the pair beyond 188.80-189.00 mark strong resistance. The pair subsequently weakened below the short-term ascending trend-channel support and now seems to be headed back towards retesting 183.20-183.00 area support, marking the lower trend-line support of the ascending trend-channel held since Oct. 2014. Sustained weakness below 183.00 mark support is likely to drag the pair immediately towards retesting 180.60-50 important support marked by lows tested in Sept.-Oct. 2015. Meanwhile on the upside, 185.00 round figure mark could provide some immediate resistance for the pair, but major upside resistance is now pegged near 186.00-186.20 region, representing the short-term ascending trend-channel support break-point, which now seems to act as immediate strong resistance for the pair.

NZDJPY



Following its recovery from the lowest level since Jan. 2013, tested in August 2015, and a subsequent strength above 100-day SMA for the first time since May 2015, the pair seems to consolidate between 50% and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Apr. to Aug. down-leg. The lower end of the trading range support near 79.80-70 region also coincides with 100-day SMA and 50-day SMA. Till the time it continues to hold above this important support confluence, the pair seems to make a fresh attempt to retest 50% Fib. retracement level resistance, near 82.30 level, which if conquered opens room for further recovery towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level resistance, near 84.50-60 area. Alternatively, should the pair fail to hold an important support confluence near 79.80-70 area, its is likely to drop back to an intermediate support near 78.50 level before aiming towards its next major support near 75.60-50 area.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURGBP, EURAUD, EURCAD and EURCHF: Technical Outlook

EURGBP



Sustained break of 0.7200 mark magnified the EURGBP's weakness that pulled it back from 0.7445-50 important resistance-zone; however, short-covering moves from 0.6980 seems favoring the pair's test to 0.7130 immediate resistance. Though, ability to surpass 0.7130 can be challenged by the 100-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its November 2014 – July 2015 decline, near 0.7200 level, breaking which the pair can rally towards 0.7300 and the 0.7360 resistances before it could aim for 0.7445-50 horizontal resistance area. On the downside, 0.7020 and the 0.6980 are likely nearby supports for the pair traders to watch, clearing which July lows, around 0.6930, may become a strong support to restrict the pair's further south-run. Should the pair closes below 0.6930, it becomes vulnerable to plunge towards testing 61.8% FE of the said downside, near 0.6800 round figure mark, with 0.6850 being intermediate support level.

EURAUD



Even if the EURAUD dipped below 1.4800 on a closing basis during early weekdays, comprising of 200-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – August advance, short-term descending trend-channel support, around 1.4600 psychological level, can trigger the pair's pullback towards re-testing the same important resistance. Should the pair manage to surpass 1.4800, it could quickly rise to 1.4910-20 resistance-zone prior to targeting 1.5000 round figure mark. On a further advance above 1.5000, the 1.5130, as indicated by the 50% Fibo, and the mentioned channel resistance around 1.5230 are important upside levels that could limit the pair's rise. Meanwhile, a daily close below 1.4600 can open the door for pair's extended downside towards 1.4450-40 and the 76.4% Fibo, near 1.4360, breaking which chances of further decline by the pair towards 1.4170 and to the 1.4000 level can't be denied.

EURCAD



Ever since the EURCAD reversed from 1.5150, it kept following short-term descending trend-channel which made the pair break 100-day SMA during late last month and is currently portraying it's decline to 200-day SMA, around 1.4100 mark. However, on a further downside below 200-day SMA, the pair may find it difficult to break 1.4000 psychological magnet that also comprises mentioned channel's support and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – August rally. Given the pair's inability to bounce back from 1.4000 and close below the same, it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards 1.3800 – 1.3780 multiple support area before aiming the 76.4% Fibo, near 1.3620 mark. Alternatively, pullbacks from the critical SMA level may witness 1.4285 – 1.4300 as immediate resistance, including 50% Fibo, breaking which 1.4380 may limit the pair's further upside. Should it manage to clear 1.4380, the pair becomes capable enough to target 1.4570 – 1.4600 important resistance-zone, which encompasses channel resistance, 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of the pair's said advance.

EURCHF



Although bounce from the short-term descending trend-channel support fueled EURCHF towards three week's high during last week, the mentioned channel's resistance, around 1.0900 round figure mark, limited the pair's upside and is currently pulling it back to 100-day SMA, near 1.0800. If the pair closes below 1.0800, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – September rally, around 1.0735, and the channel support, now at 1.0700, can become strong downside supports. Moreover, pair's extended declines following 1.0700 break are likely to be limited by the 200-day SMA and 50% Fibo, near 1.0640-35 area. On the upside, 23.6% Fibo of the said move, near 1.0855, and the channel resistance, near 1.0900, could limit the pair's near-term advance. Should the pair manage to clear 1.0900 on a closing basis, it can witness 1.0950 and the 1.1000 intermediate resistances before looking at September highs around 1.1050.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Overview: USDCHF, GBPCHF and AUDCHF


USDCHF



Following its break of seven month old ascending trend-channel resistance, that fueled the USDCHF towards marking fresh five year high, the pair maintained its upward trajectory, as portrayed by the short-term ascending trend-channel, indicating further rise towards 61.8% FE of its January lows to March highs, near 1.0300 round figure mark. However, the mentioned channel's resistance, at 1.0350 presently, can provide pullbacks to the pair prices, break of which can magnify its upward trajectory towards 1.0500 psychological level. On the contrary, the channel support, near 1.0160, is likely immediate downside level for the pair traders to watch, breaking which the broader channel's resistance-line, now acting as support, near 1.0100, becomes an important level for the pair. Should the pair dips below 1.0100 on a closing basis, it can quickly decline to 0.9960 and the 0.9900 levels prior to testing 0.9840-50 horizontal support, including 50-day SMA.

GBPCHF



Even if the GBPCHF failed to surpass 61.8% FE of its May – August up-move, a month old ascending trend-channel favors the pair's upside. From the current level, the pair seems re-aiming for the said FE level around 1.5515-20, breaking which previous highs of 1.5570 and the 1.5600 round figure mark are likely intermediate resistances that it could witness during its up-move to channel resistance-line, currently near 1.5730. Should the pair manage to clear 1.5730 on a closing basis, chances of its rise to 1.5900 area can't be denied. Meanwhile, a daily close below 1.5300 channel support can stop the pair's upward trajectory and pull it back to 1.5100 psychological level. Moreover, further downside below 1.5100 may find it difficult to break 1.5020 – 1.5040 support area, encompassing 50-day and 100-day SMA.

AUDCHF



Sustained break above 200-day SMA triggered AUDCHF rise towards marking the highest levels in six months, also surpassing the eight month old descending trend-line resistance; however, profit booking at the high levels seems restricting the pair's further up-move at present and a daily close below 0.7360, as indicated by the mentioned resistance-turned-support-line, may pull the pair back to 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – August downside, near 0.7280. Should the pair dips below 0.7280, it can quickly decline to 0.7190 – 0.7200 support area, including 200-day SMA, while sustained downtrend following 0.7190 break can make the pair vulnerable enough to test 0.7000 psychological magnet. Alternatively, 0.7450-55, including 76.4% Fibo, is likely nearby resistance for the pair, surpassing which can fuel the pair to 0.7530-40 resistance-area. Moreover, successful rise above 0.7540 can strengthen the pair towards 0.7650-70 zone.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Check - Important NZD Pairs

NZDUSD



On 4-hourly chart, the pair clearly seems to be trending lower within a short-term descending trend-channel formation and is currently witnessing a bounce from the lower trend-line support of the channel. Looking at the broader picture, 50-day SMA has now crossed over 100-day SMA, suggesting that the prior recovery trend might continue in the near-term. From current levels, move above 0.6600 mark is likely to be followed by an immediate up-move towards the upper trend-line resistance of the channel, currently near 0.6645-50 area. Sustained break-out above the descending trend-channel has the potential to lift the pair beyond 0.6700 strong horizontal resistance back towards reclaiming 0.6800 mark. Alternatively, failure to move above 0.6600 mark and a subsequent weakness back below 100-day SMA, currently near 0.6545-40 area, is likely to find support near 0.6500 mark. Break below 0.6500 mark might negate expectations of near-term recovery, dragging the pair back towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.6380-70 region.

EURNZD



Following a decisive break below an important support confluence near 1.6900-1.6880, comprising of 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fib. retracement level of April to August up-move, the pair continued its near-term corrective move. The pair has now weakened below 50% Fib. retracement level and is moving closer to 1.6000 psychological mark support, also coinciding with 200-day SMA. Sustained weakness below 200-day SMA strong support is likely to make the pair vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards testing sub-1.5800 mark, representing 61.8% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile, a bounce from current levels might now confront immediate resistance near 1.6300 round figure mark, also coinciding with 50% Fib. retracement level. Any up-move beyond 1.6300 mark is likely to be restricted at a strong horizontal resistance near 1.6540-50 area, which if conquered seems more likely to lift the pair back towards the important support confluence, turned strong resistance, near 1.6900 mark.

GBPNZD



Reversal from 100-day SMA and a subsequent drop below 50-day SMA dragged the pair back towards 2.2900 mark support, representing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Apr. to Aug. up-swing. Extension of the weakness below 2.2900 mark is likely to increase the pair's vulnerability to continue drifting lower in the near-term. Moreover, 50-day SMA has also crossed below 100-day SMA, indicating higher possibilities of further depreciating move in the near-term. Below 2.2900 mark, the pair is likely to continue drifting lower towards testing its next major support confluence near 2.2200 region, comprising of 200-day SMA and 50% Fib. retracement level. Intermediate support on the downside are pegged near 2.2800-2.2790 area and Oct. lows near 2.2400 mark. Meanwhile, a move back above 2.3000 mark might lift the pair towards 2.3120 intermediate resistance before the pair heads back towards retesting the very important 50-day SMA resistance, currently near 2.3200-2.3220 area. This 50-day SMA resistance now seems to cap any further near-term recovery for the pair.

AUDNZD



After reversing from 1.1080-60 strong resistance area, comprising of 38.2% Fib. retracement level of Apr. to Aug. up-swing and a short-term ascending trend-line resistance, the pair decisively weekend below 1.1000 mark important support, marking another ascending trend-line support. Reversal from an ascending trend-line resistance and a subsequent break below an ascending trend-line support has confirmed break below a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern formation on 4-hourly chart. Hence, from current levels the pair seems vulnerable to continue drifting lower, initially towards 1.0900 round figure mark intermediate support and eventually towards 50% Fib. retracement level support near 1.0860-50 area. Meanwhile on the upside, the ascending trend-line support break-point, near 1.1000 mark, now seems to act as immediate resistance for the pair. Up-move beyond this immediate resistance now seems to be capped at 38.2% Fib. retracement level near 1.1050-60 level.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - AUDCAD, EURCAD and CADJPY

AUDCAD



Although the pair has witnessed some recovery from multi-year low level, tested in Sept., it still remains confined within a well-established descending trend-channel. Hence, from current level any further up-move is likely to confront a strong resistance near 0.9750 region, marking the upper trend-line resistance of the channel. Only a sustained break-through the descending trend-channel might open room for further near-term recovery towards making an attempt to reclaim parity mark. Meanwhile on the downside, 0.9560-50 zone seems to provide some immediate support for the pair. Below 0.9550 level support, the pair seems to drift back to its historic support near 0.9420-0.9400 mark. On sustained weakness below 0.9400 mark, the pair seems to resume its prior weakening trend, back towards testing the lower trend-line support of the channel, currently near 0.9070-50 region.

EURCAD



After confirming a bearish descending triangular formation and a subsequent break below an ascending trend-line support, the pair continued drifting lower and has now dropped to the very important 200-day SMA support near 1.4110-1.4100 area. Extension of the pair's weakness below 200-day SMA might now find support at 61.8% Fib. retracement level of April to August up-swing, near 1.4000-1.3990 area. Meanwhile, in order to register any meaningful recovery, the pair first needs to clear 1.4150 immediate resistance, which if conquered has the potential to lift the pair back towards retesting 50% Fib. retracement level resistance, near 1.4290-1.4300 region.

CADJPY

On 4-hourly chart, the pair seems to have formed a bearish Rising Wedge chart-pattern, and is currently trading close to the lower ascending trend-line support near 91.75-70 area. Should the pair decisively break below 91.75-70 support area, thus confirming the bearish patter, it is likely to drop immediately towards its intermediate support near 91.50 level before heading towards its next major support near 90.60-50 area, marking low tested in late October. Alternatively, should the pair manage to hold and rebound from this immediate support, it is likely to confront immediate resistance near 92.30 horizontal level. Sustained strength above this immediate resistance now seems to pave way for extension of the bounce back towards testing its major resistance near 93.00-93.10 zone.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Technical Update - Important AUD Pairs

AUDUSD



Following a retest of an important support confluence near 0.7200 mark, the pair resumed its near-term recovery trend. From current levels, the pair seems to extend its near-term recovery towards testing a short-term descending trend-line resistance, near 0.7340-50 area. Momentum above the descending trend-line resistance is immediately followed by another strong resistance near 0.7400 mark, nearing 38.2% Fib. retracement level of May to Sept. down-leg and also coinciding with highs tested earlier in Oct. 2015. On the downside, 0.7250 level now seems to have emerged as immediate support. This is followed by a strong support near 0.7200 mark, comprising of 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. retracement level. Failure to extend its near-term recovery momentum and a subsequent break back below 0.7200 mark might trigger further downward momentum for the pair, back towards retesting an ascending trend-line support, currently near 0.7070-50 region.

GBPAUD



Reversal from a short-term descending trend-line resistance has now dragged the pair below another short-term descending trend-line strong support. Hence, from current levels the pair seems to continue its downward trajectory towards testing a very important support confluence near 2.0600-2.0580 area, comprising of 50% Fib. retracement level of its March to August up-move and 200-day SMA. Should the pair extend its weakening trend below 200-day SMA, it could then be vulnerable to continue drifting lower towards 2.0200 mark support, representing 61.8% Fib. retracement level. Meanwhile, recovery from current levels now seems to confront immediate resistance near 2.0770-80 area, which if conquered has the potential to lift the pair back towards 2.0950 immediate strong resistance. Should the pair manage to sustain its strength above this immediate strong resistance and subsequently reclaim 2.1000 mark, it seems more likely to extend its near-term up-move towards 2.1150 horizontal resistance.

AUDCAD



After decisively conquering and sustaining its strength above 200-day SMA, the pair now seems all set to continue with its near-term upward trajectory towards testing a very important resistance confluence near 0.9750 level, comprising of the upper trend-line resistance of a descending trend-channel formation on daily chart and 50% Fib. retracement level of its fall from April highs to lows tested in early September. A decisive break-through the descending trend-channel, now seems to provide the required momentum to further lift the pair towards 61.8% Fib. retracement level resistance near 0.9880-0.9900 area. On the downside, 0.9650 level seems to protect immediate downside, which is followed by 38.2% Fib. retracement level support near 0.9600 mark. Failure to hold 0.9600 mark support is likely to drag the pair back towards testing 100-day SMA, currently near 0.9530 level.

AUDNZD



The pair once again failed to sustain its strength above 100-day SMA and reversed from 38.2% Fib. retracement level of April to August up-swing and has now dropped back below 100-day SMA. Although, the pair has held 1.0920-1.0900 immediate horizontal support, but in the near-term seems vulnerable to resume its near-term down-trend towards retesting 1.0800 mark support, representing 200-day SMA. Meanwhile on the upside, 100-day SMA, currently near 1.1000 round figure mark, now seems to act as immediate resistance. Up-move beyond 100-day SMA is again likely to be restricted by 38.2% Fib. retracement level resistance, near 1.1050-60 level. However, should the pair manage to clear this important resistance near 1.1050-60 area, it seems all set to resume its upward trajectory towards testing its next major resistance near 1.1200-1.1220 horizontal zone, before heading towards 23.6% Fib. retracement level resistance near 1.1300 mark.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”