Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/CAD: buy target - 0.9750
25 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/CAD reached buy target 0.9650
• Next buy target - 0.9750

AUD/CAD continues to rise strongly – following the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.9650, which was set in our previous report as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the 3rd impulse wave (iii) of the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the start of September.

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the major resistance level 0.9750 (which reversed the price sharply in May and August, as you can see below). This resistance level is also the forecast price calculated for the completion of the active ABC correction (4). Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 0.9650.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7173

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 26

By Kira Iukhtenko

As we expected, the US Dollar gained some ground since the beginning of the week: USD index has finally breached above 100 points. Expecations for a rate hike are growing very quickly, it has already reached 78% on the futures market. On Wendnesday the US released a bunch of mixed data, but the market is now ignoring all the pessimistic points. Focus switched to the ECB meeting on December 3 and the US labor market data on December 4. Market will be working in a wait-and-see mode in the coming days. Bullish USD expectations will likely push the greenback to new highs at the beginning of December.

USD index. Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, on Thursday the US markets are closed due to the Thanksgiving day celebration. Liquity on Friday is also expected to be rather thin because of the “black Friday”. We concede a short-term USD bearish retracement, but its is very unlikely to last long.

EUR/USD has finally managed to break below the 1.0600 mark and is trading at the 7-year lows on Wednesday. Expectations remain highly bearish. According to many economists, ECB easing measures could be even harder than the market is now pricing in. As for the technical picture, the pair is forming a «bearish engulfing» on the daily chart. Next support is seen at 1.0450 – these are the March 2015 lows. We do not expect the price to fix below 1.0450 before the ECB, but a test is very likely.

We’ve analyzed more currency pairs in our video report.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7178

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY trading inside cloud
26 November 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair keeps correcting within the lateral movement that began two weeks ago. The pair is still holding above the 122.30/40 support but now it is happening inside the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. Yesterday's failed attempt to break through the Tenkan and Kijun lines resistance might trigger the bears to action, allowing them to test the 122.00 and 121.80 levels. The bears are now as well supported by the dead cross formed by the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. The cloud, however, remains bullish at the same time. Therefore, consolidation might be completed in the medium term and the bulls would start pressuring again.

Technical levels: support – 122.00; resistance – 123.10.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 122.00; SL — 121.80; TP1 — 123.00; TP2 — 123.50.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7180

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Aussie correcting
26 November 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The Australian dollar corrected to the Tenkan and Kijun lines yesterday, having recovered to the 0.7280 mark before – this is a new high this November. The market is supported by the Kijun line at 0.7220 today. The level is quite strong, therefore new purchases are possible from here that would attract more bulls to the market. It should be noted that the positive character of the Ichimoku indicator remains as well. Thus, the Golden cross is still active and the cloud keeps expanding upwards.

Technical levels: support – 0.7220; resistance – 0. 7280.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7230; SL — 0.7110; TP1 — 0.7280; TP2 — 0.7300.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7179

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 26

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0766 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5170 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0310;, STOP LOSS 1.0089

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7382, STOP LOSS 0.7149

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557, STOP LOSS 1.3240 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 131.11 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.0950, STOP LOSS 1.0785

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4215 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6520, TAKE PROFIT 0.6643, STOP LOSS 0.6540 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7065, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7115

GBP/JPY: BUY at 185.15, TAKE PROFIT 188.81, STOP LOSS 184.15

__________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7182

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 27

US dollar trading was rather calm at the thin market on Thursday. Friday can be another quiet day with no releases scheduled in American economic calendar.

EUR/USD closed above 1.0600 on Wednesday despite the speculation about the various monetary easing measures that can be used by the European Central Bank at its meeting next week. Still, the upside for the single currency is limited as the majority of market players think that ECB will take some aggressive steps, which will pull EUR/USD down. On Friday there won’t be many news from the euro area, except German import prices (07:00 GMT) and Spanish CPI (08:00 GMT). Resistance is located at 1.0660, 1.0690 and 1.0725. Support is at 1.0600, 1.0565 and 1.0520.

GBP/USD keeps trading sideways around 1.5100. The UK will release the second estimate of Q3 GDP at 09:30 GMT on Friday. British economic growth is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. All in all, the cable remains vulnerable for further declines to the 1.5000 area. Resistance is at 1.5145 and 1.5180.

USD/JPY is trying to hold above 122.50. Japanese inflation figures will be releases early on Friday. Support is at 122.40 and 122.20, while resistance is at 122.75 and 123.00. The short-term outlook is neutral/negative.

AUD/USD was hit by weak capital expenditure figures on Thursday. At the same time, the pair’s ability to hold above 0.7000 means that fresh negative drivers are needed to pull the pair lower. Support is at 0.7200, 0.71575 and 0.7150, which should limit the declines. Resistance is at 0.7250 and 0.7280.



More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7189

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 27

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0766

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.00, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.19

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5170, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5170 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0310, STOP LOSS 1.0139

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7382, STOP LOSS 0.7149

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3557, STOP LOSS 1.3240 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 131.11

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.0950, STOP LOSS 1.0785

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4215 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 185.15, TAKE PROFIT 188.81, STOP LOSS 184.15

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6520, TAKE PROFIT 0.6643, STOP LOSS 0.6540 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7065, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7115

__________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7193

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for Nov 30 - Dec 6

By Kira Iukhtenko

As we expected last week, GBP/USD extended the downside and approached the 1.5000 mark. This is a strong support now – the price has already been here in early November. Decline could slow down here for a while, but we remain bearish for the cable in the medium-term. Break below 1.50 would open the way to 1.49 – and this is the lower boarder of the current bearish channel. In the medium-term, the pair is expected to depreciate towards 1.45.

There are fundamental reasons for a cheaper pound versus the US dollar: policy divergence between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve is now on the rise. The BOE Governor Marc Carney sounded dovish last week, stating the UK interest rates could stay low for a prolonged period. Forward contracts based on GBP aren’t pricing a BOE interest-rate increase until after January 2017. Conversely, the Fed is now widely expected to hike in December. This picture is strongly negative for the cable in the coming weeks.

As for the economic calendar, on the new week pay attention to the BOE Financial Stability report and Carney’s speech on Tuesday. A range of November PMIs is on the schedule: Manufacturing index on Tuesday, Construction index on Wednesday and Services index on Thursday. On Friday, all the financial markets will be focused on the US NFP.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7200

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for Nov 30 - Dec 6

Elizabeth Belugina

Traders await the meeting and the press conference of the European Central Bank on Thursday. EUR/USD found support in the psychologically important 1.0600 area as the expectations of additional monetary easing are largely priced in.

During the past week there were reports that the ECB is considering two-tier deposit rate cut.It means that the regulator can make bigger deposit rate cuts for some banks in the euro area. Such approach can actually have a milder effect on the euro, because if the ECB charges the wholesale banks and not the retail ones with negative deposit rates, monetary outflow from the region won’t be very strong.

Still, we continue to believe that the ECB will make sure that any correction up in the single currency will be only temporary: the central bank doesn’t need high currency as it may ruin the fragile economic recovery of the euro area. The ECB might increase monthly QE purchases and prolong the program. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve will be helpful for the European central bank.

We recommend staying cautious in the current environment of various expectations and confused market. Next week the market will be very nervous. If spots are violated, we may get a sharp move to the downside even ahead of the ECB meeting. A daily close below 1.0600 or better 1.0580 is needed to confirm that the downtrend has resumed. In this case the targets will be 1.0520, 1.0480 and 1.0400. Traders will beware of ‘sell the rumors, buy the fact’ scenario. If a bigger correction to the upside materializes, a short squeeze and an increase above 1.0655 can take the pair up to 1.0715, 1.0760 and finally 1.0830/50 – an area, which will limit the upside and represent a place to enter new shorts. Be especially careful during Mario Draghi’s press conference on Thursday: there’s a high risk of spikes and volatile moves. Another possible trade apart from EUR/USD may be selling EUR/JPY below 129.60 as the euro zone’s and Japan’s policies are currently diverging as well.

In addition, don’t forget that the impact on EUR/USD may also come from the United States: American employment data on Friday will also be a market mover. You may learn more about that from our US dollar weekly outlook.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7198

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for Nov 30 - Dec 6

Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week USD/JPY was consolidative, but under pressure. The market’s risk sentiment was hit as Turkey shot down a Russian jet in Syria. There’s a defined short-term resistance on H4 which is currently in the 122.60 area. Support is at 122.20, 122.00, 121.80 and 121.50. Further resistance is at 122.90/123.00, 123.17, 123.40 and 123.60.

Let’s have a look at the events in Japan: economic figures here came out mixed. Japanese core consumer prices fell for the third month in a row. Household spending also contracted. However, the nation’s unemployment rate fell to the minimum since 1995 at 3.1%, and that’s a positive development. As we have been able to see in the latest months, Japanese data doesn’t have strong impact on the pair. No new measures are expected from the Bank of Japan in the coming months, and it’s still a factor limiting USD/JPY on the upside.

Next week there will be data of minor importance released in Japan. Pay most attention to the retail sales figures on Monday. The pair can draw strength only from good data from the United States, in particular, if nonfarm payrolls, due on Friday, December 4, are bright. In addition, China will release manufacturing and services PMIs on Tuesday. The data will influence the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, the dynamics of USD/JPY.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7199