Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

Forex Majors Retrace Back to Wave 4 Fibonacci Levels

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is in a wave 4 (brown) correction. The wave count is invalidated if price manages to break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is back at the top of the channel near the resistance trend line (orange), which is a bounce or break spot. A bearish bounce could price move lower as part of the wave 5 (brown). A bullish break could mean that wave 5 has already been completed.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is in wave 4 (green) retracement and a break below support could see price head lower towards the waves 3 (pink/blue).

1 hour



The GBP/USD made a bullish impulse to complete a wave C (blue) most likely, which is part of a larger wave 4 (green) correction and retracement. A break below the support trend line (green) could start the wave 5 whereas a break above the resistance trend line (orange) and 50% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave structure.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has retraced back to the support trend line (green), which will be a bounce or break moment (see 1 hour chart).

1 hour



The USD/JPY could still be in a wave 4 (orange) pattern if price stays above the support trend line (green). A bullish bounce could see price move higher to complete wave 5 (orange/green) of wave A (blue). A bearish break means that wave A (blue) was already completed at the previous top and that price could be retracing lower for wave B (blue).

 

[Admiral Markets]

GU Bear Flag, EU Triangle, and UJ Bull Flag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a wave 4 (brown) correction. The wave count is invalidated if price manages to break above the horizontal resistance (red).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is showing a contracting triangle formation (orange/green). A break below support could see price fall towards 1 of 2 Fibonacci targets. A break above the 50% Fib of wave 4 invalidates the current wave 4-5 (brown) development.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD retraced back to the 50% of the wave 4 (green). A break above the 50% Fib most likely changes the wave structure. A break above the 78.6% and bottom of wave 1 (red) invalidates the wave 4 (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is in a corrective phase which is best explained by a wave 4 structure (green). A break below support (green) could see price head lower to the wave 5 (green) Fibonacci targets.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely still in a wave 5 (green) of a wave A (blue) as price consolidates sideways (red).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a bull flag chart pattern (red lines), which is a typical correction for wave 4 (orange). A break below the 78.6% Fibonacci level invalidates the current wave structure.

 

[Admiral Markets]

Chart Patterns Dominate Weekly Start of Forex Market

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is in a well structured downtrend channel, which is marked by resistance (orange) and support (blue) trend lines.

1 hour



The EUR/USD did try to break below the internal support trend line (green) but the breakout has been choppy so far. If break above the channel could see price hit Fibonacci resistance of wave 4 (brown). A break above the top (red) would change the current wave 4-5 (brown) structure.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is currently in a wave 4 (green), which will be invalidated once price crosses the bottom and origin of wave 1 (red line). A bearish break could see price continue its downtrend for wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD has clear support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines marking its boundaries. A break of support could lead to the start of a wave 5 (green) downtrend continuation. A break of resistance (orange) could see an expansion of the wave 4 (green), whereas a break above the resistance (red) invalidates the wave 4 count.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has kept pushing lower within the bull flag formation and hence the wave count has been changed. Wave A (blue) is now marked as completed at the most recent top and price is currently in a wave B (blue).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Break EURUSD Bear Flag & USDJPY Bull Flag

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is heading lower and close to posting a new lower low within the downtrend, which is indicated by the downtrend channel (orange/blue).

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke the wave 4 support trend lines (dotted green) and could be in a wave 3 (purple) at the moment. Wave 1 was a leading diagonal and wave 2 saw a 50% Fib retracement.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is currently in a wave 4 (green), which will be invalidated once price crosses the bottom and origin of wave 1 (red line). A bearish break of the small triangle (green/orange lines) could see price continue its downtrend for wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD has clear support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines marking its boundaries. A break of support could lead to the start of a wave 5 (green) downtrend continuation. A break of resistance (orange) could see an expansion of the wave 4 (green), whereas a break above the resistance (red) invalidates the wave 4 count.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the bull flag chart pattern (red dotted lines) and is now heading towards the Fibonacci targets of wave Y (brown) and C (blue).



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Sluggish EURUSD Breakout Reaches 100% Fibonacci Target

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is showing a new lower low but still has some space left towards the two main Fibonacci targets. The oscillator will need to move down a lot lower and break below the previous bottom (purple) to avoid double divergence. The FOMC meeting minutes could heavily impact price action during today.

1 hour



The pace of the EUR/USD's bearish wave 3 has been rather slow and price has only just managed to reach the 100% Fibonacci level. Typically waves 3 should reach the 161.8% target.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is currently still in a wave 4 (green), which will be invalidated once price crosses the bottom and origin of wave 1 (red line). A bearish break of the small triangle (green/orange lines) could see price continue its downtrend for wave 5 (green) of wave 3 (pink). The FOMC meeting minutes could heavily impact price action during today.

1 hour



The GBP/USD has not started its wave 5 (green) impulse as yet and remains in between the support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines. Price still seems to be in a wave 4 (green) but a break above the resistance (red) invalidates the wave 4 count.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is hesitating to break the previous top. The FOMC meeting minutes could heavily impact price action during today.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Uptrend Showing Signs of Struggle

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is showing an attempt to break the resistance (orange) of the downtrend channel. A breakout could indicate the completion of wave 5 (brown).

1 hour

Yesterday the EUR/USD made a pullback for wave 4 (purple) and then posted a lower low, which could mark the wave 5 (purple). The entire wave 5 (brown) has been choppy so far, which could be explained by an ending diagonal formation (wave 4 goes into wave 1 territory in that case).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke the resistance (orange dotted) of the consolidation zone and is near the invalidation point (red) of the wave 4 (green). There are also several resistance levels remaining due to the Cable downtrend.

1 hour

The GBP/USD has Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (green) nearby, which could act as resistance points.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave X (blue) versus W, which could be a strong resistance level.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed wave 5 (green) of wave C (blue) with the recent push to post a higher high. This created a rising wedge chart pattern formation (brown and dotted green). A break of the support trend line (green) could lead to a bigger bearish correction.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Expecting Correction after Downtrend Channel Break?

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD downtrend is showing signs of weakness as price broke above the resistance (orange dotted) of the downtrend channel. There is also double divergence when comparing price with the oscillator (purple). A break below this year’s low (green) is needed before the EUR/USD can be considered in a wave 3 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed an ABC zigzag formation (green) yesterday. At the moment I am expecting a bigger bullish correction (WXY blue) due to the divergence on the 4 hour chart.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is near the invalidation point (red) of wave 4 (green).The Cable remains near multiple resistance levels, which could send price back lower. In general however, the downtrend is behaving choppy and price action is not resembling the expected impulse of a wave 3 (pink/blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD needs to break below support (greens) before the wave 4 (green) correction can be considered completed.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY need to break above the wave Y (brown) top before an uptrend continuation becomes more likely. For the moment price is at support (green) which could become a bounce and/or breakout level.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed wave 5 (green) of wave A (blue) and a bigger ABC correction could take place.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Approaching Critical Bottom and Yearly Low

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is reaching a key support zone (green), which will either provide a bullish bounce with wave C, a bearish break with wave 3 or a sideways consolidation (wave 3 or C). The presence of double divergence (purple) increases the likelihood of a bounce. The Fibonacci levels are showing the wave C targets (green). A wave 3 becomes more likely once price manages to break the 161.8% target.

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed a bullish ABC zigzag (green) and now it might be making a bearish zigzag too (green). As long as price stays above the Fibonacci levels mentioned in the chart, price is most likely still in a wave X (blue) correction.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD eventually made a bearish turn for wave 4 (green). It now broke below support (dotted green) and is most likely in wave 5 (green) with Fibonacci targets in its vision (Fib levels from 3 vs 1 pink).

1 hour



The GBP/USD broke out below the various support levels (green) and could be heading towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (green). Price is now in a wave 3 (blue) but a stronger pullback could complete the wave 3 at the recent bottom. A wave 4 retracement should not go above the bottom of wave 1 (orange line).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY stopped its bullish momentum at the confluence of Fibonacci resistance levels. A break above the 100% level could see a renewed uptrend continuation whereas a failure to break the top could support the current AB (blue) wave count.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Building Wave 4 Retracement in Down Trend

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD is making a bullish retracement within the down trend channel (orange/blue). The current yearly low of 2015 (green) and the double divergence (purple) could be reason for a bullish rally. A break below the channel and the yearly low increases the chance that a wave 3 (green) is developing rather than a wave C (green).

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke the resistance trend line (orange dotted) but the bullish price action has been choppy. Price is now building a small bullish channel (green lines). The Fibonacci levels could act as a resistance.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is in a downtrend but a support trend line (green) is nearby, which will act as important bounce or break spot. A break could accelerate the wave 3s (pink/blue), whereas a bounce makes a wave C (purple) more likely.

1 hour



The GBP/USD continued with the bearish breakout yesterday and most likely completed wave 5 (grey) of wave 3 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY stopped its bullish momentum at the confluence of Fibonacci resistance levels. A break below the next support trend line (solid green) could cause a bigger correction to take place.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Downtrend Persists and GBP/USD Retraces to 38.2% Fib

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD continues its downtrend but the angle of the channel remains shallow. Divergence (purple) and the yearly low (green) also remain present.

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke the channel (dotted green) and posted one more lower low. Price however failed to break below the 138.2% Fibonacci level which therefore does not invalidate the wave X (blue)

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD is in a downtrend but a support trend line (green) is nearby, which will act as important bounce or break spot. A break could accelerate the wave 3s (pink/blue), whereas a bounce makes a wave C (purple) more likely.

1 hour



The GBP/USD building a bullish retracement, which is probably a part of wave 4 (blue). The Fibonacci retracement levels and the resistance trend line (red) could act as a resistance.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is building a bearish ABC (blue) correction, which have difficulties with breaking below the various support lines (green).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”