Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Downtrend Channels Remain Intact

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has so far been unable to break below the 138.2% Fibonacci support level, which could invalidate the wave X (blue) wave count. A break above the resistance trend lines (orange/yellow) could spark a bigger bullish correction.

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed a small ABC zigzag (pink) which was part of a wave B (orange). The bearish wave C (orange) has not been able to break the support trend line (light green), which could be an invalidation level of wave X (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and price is moving lower as part of a wave 5 bearish breakout.

1 hour



The GBP/USD needs to break below the inner support trend line (light green) before wave 5 (blue) has a chance of reaching the 61.8% target (5 vs 1+3).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is at the support trend lines (greens), which could act as a bounce or break spot. A break of the long-term support could initiate a larger wave C (blue) correction. A break above resistance (red) could restart the uptrend.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Respects Support Fib 3 Consecutive Times

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD retested the 138.2% Fibonacci level for the 3rd time, but has so far been unable to break below the support. This makes the wave WXY (blue) still the most likely scenario.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is moving sideways and is substantially slowing down as indicated by the purple trend lines. Both support and resistance trend lines are nearby and offer breakout levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD respected the support trend lines (green) and the 1.50 round level. Price made a bullish bounce and looks to have completed the wave 3 (pink). A wave 4 retracement should not cross the bottom of wave 1 (red line).

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing a bullish impulse, which broke above the resistance trend line (orange dotted). The Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (pink) should act as resistance points.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY price action has slowed down and price is caught in a narrow range (see trend lines). Price seems to have stopped at the 78.6% resistance Fibonacci level, which could be part of a wave X (blue).



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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD in Wave 4 and USD/JPY in Triangle

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD showed a bullish bounce yesterday from the 138,2 support Fib but price is now at a resistance level (orange) of the downtrend channel. This is a break or bounce for the EURUSD. A bullish break could see price retrace higher as part of wave Y (blue).

1 hour



The EUR/USD upside could be the first part of a bullish momentum, which has for the moment been marked as a wave A (green). A break of the support trend line (green) could also indicate the continuation of the downtrend, although the wave B Fibs could be potential support levels.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has many support (greens) and resistance (reds) nearby. The invalidation level of the current wave 4 (pink) is marked by the horizontal red level.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building a correction within wave 4 (pink). Price has already retraced back to the 23,6 percent Fibonacci level, which together with the 38,2 Fib are typical Fibs for 4th waves.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY is close to resistance levels, which offer a break or bounce zone. For the moment the wave count is indicating that price is in a wave X (blue) unless price manages to break above the 100 percent Fibonacci level.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Builds Consolidation Zone after Bearish Momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD strong bullish momentum last week Thursday completed the 5th wave (purple) and broke layers of resistance (orange/red). Price could be building an ABC zigzag.

1 hour



The EUR/USD is building a mild angled channel (purple lines), which could be a bull flag chart pattern.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBPUSD remains in a downtrend as price stays below the resistance trend line. The GU cannot cross above the bottom of wave 1 (red line) without invaliding the current wave count.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is building a sideways consolidation zone (purple lines) after a bullish momentum (wave A). There seems to be an ABC zigzag correction within wave 4 (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY bounced off the bottom of the consolidation zone (green/red). Price needs to break above or below the zone before a bigger acceleration could be expected.



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[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD & GBPUSD Break Above & Below Bull Flag

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. which acted as support and provided a bullish bounce. A bullish rally would confirm the development of an ABC rally (brown).

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the bull flag (dotted purple) but price action has been slow and choppy so far. Price will need to break above the current resistance (orange) before a bigger impulse could occur. A break below support (green) could indicate the chance of a larger bearish correction to the 50% Fibonacci level.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD bullish momentum (wave A) increases the chance of a larger ABC (green) zigzag correction, which could see support at the 78.6% Fibonacci level and resistance at the wave 4 (pink) Fib levels.

1 hour



The GBP/USD made a bearish break below the bull flag (dotted purple). Price fell towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave B (green) and then bounced at this support level. A break above the resistance (orange/red) confirms the completion of wave B (green). A break below the support line (green) could see price make small drops towards the 100% level.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY bounced at the resistance (red) zone of the consolidation range (red/green). Price is now half way the range could fall to the bottom to complete the correction. A break of the zone is needed before a larger move can be expected.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EURUSD & GBPUSD Develop ABC Bullish Zigzag Patterns

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD displayed bullish momentum during yesterday's trading day, which confirmed the development of an ABC rally (brown).

1 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the resistance (dotted orange) and showed a bigger bullish impulse. This could have completed a wave 3 (purple) within wave C (brown). Major resistance is nearby at 1.1, which is resistance from a higher time frame and the 61.8% Fibonacci target.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD indeed displayed a bullish bounce at the 78.6% Fibonacci level and made a significant rally as part of the expected ABC (green) zigzag.

1 hour



The GBP/USD showed a strong bullish break and momentum above the resistance (dotted orange), which could be a wave 3 as well (blue). A potential 5th wave has more chance of developing when price stays above the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the support level of the entire consolidation zone (dotted green), which expands the wave Y (blue) correction.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar ABC Zigzag Approaching Support

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD broke above the downtrend channel and is now approaching resistance levels. Price is most likely still in a wave C (brown) but a break of the current bottom (purple) could indicate that wave C has been completed.

1 hour



The EUR/USD could be in a wave 4 (purple) shallow pullback. Typically this retracement does not below the 50% Fibonacci level. A bullish bounce could see resistance at 1.11 (red) and the 61.8% Fibonacci target.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD remains present in a choppy downtrend channel. Price is building an ABC correction, which could be near completion as price approaches multiple resistance spots.

1 hour



The GBP/USD retraced for a shallow pullback to the 38.2% support Fib as part of a wave 4 (blue). A break below the support Fibs could lead to a wave count change. The wave 5 (blue) could be short as price has reached strong resistance levels as well: trend line (orange) and wave 4 (pink).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY broke the support level of the entire consolidation zone (dotted green), which expands the wave Y (blue) correction.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD & GBP/USD Arrive at Decisive Resistance Zone

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD bullish momentum is now near a sturdy confluence of resistance (red/Fib target).

1 hour



The EUR/USD made one more bullish bounce last week as part of a wave 4 and 5 (purple). It seems likely that wave 5 has been completed at the most recent high once price manages to break below support (green). Just above price is a strong zone of resistance (red/Fib target).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has arrived at a strong confluence of resistance trend lines (red/orange) within the down trend channel (brown).

1 hour



The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 waves (grey) at the 61.8% Fibonacci target (orange) and top of the channel (orange), which could initiate bearish price action after completing an ABC correction (green).

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has turned in a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs and a pullback could see resistance at the Fibonacci levels.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Bearish Break Faces Struggle at Support

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD has approached strong resistance levels such as the trend line (red) and the Fibonacci (61.8%). A bearish bounce could indicate the completion of wave C (brown). A bullish break could price move towards the 78.6% and 100% targets.

1 hour



The EUR/USD could be building an ending diagonal where the impulse waves are largely overlapping each other, which often happens near strong support and resistance.

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD respected the top of the larger downtrend channel (brown) and resistance Fibonacci levels and has shown bearish price action. Support levels (green) however still remain intact.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is showing a smaller uptrend channel but the bearish price action was impulsive and is most likely a wave 1 (blue) or wave A. A bearish turn could occur when price pulls back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (blue). Any break above 100% invalidates the wave structure.

USD/JPY

4 hour



The USD/JPY has reached a larger support zone (green) which could cause price to build a bullish bounce. The resistance levels and potential wave B (orange) resistance Fibonacci levels could potentially stop the bullish bounce.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

Wave Structure Prior to FOMC and US Rate Decision

EUR/USD

4 hour



The EUR/USD was not able to break above the strong resistance level (red), which therefore has not yet invalidated the potential for a wave 2 and 3 (green). Today's interest rate decision in the U.S. followed by an FOMC statement will have a potentially large impact on all markets.

1 hour



The EUR/USD completed a 5th wave (blue) within an ending diagonal. After that price reverted quickly and the EUR/USD seems to have built a first leg of momentum which could be either a wave 1 or A (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour



The GBP/USD has reached an interesting bounce or break spot at the bottom of the upward slopping channel (green/orange lines). Today's interest rate decision in the U.S. followed by an FOMC statement will have a potentially large impact on all markets.

1 hour



The GBP/USD is broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and has now reached a new support level. A bounce at the trend line could be shallow if price is indeed in a wave 4 (grey). The invalidation level for the wave count is the bottom of wave 1 (grey) which is just above the 50% Fibonacci level. A break below the support (green) could see price fall further towards the wave 3 (blue) Fibonacci targets. The alternative scenario is an ABC correction instead of a wave 3 (blue), if price manages to break above the waves 2 (blue/grey) and resistance trend line (brown).

USD/JPY

4 hour



Today's interest rate decision in the U.S. followed by an FOMC statement will have a potentially large impact on all markets. The USD/JPY could be making a pullback for wave B (orange) but an alternative which has an ABC ending at the spot of current wave A (orange) is equally likely.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”