AceTraderFx Apr 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, NZD/USD

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AceTraderFx Jan 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Jan 2016 00:10GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr rallied in the 2nd part of last week on active short-covering. Reuters reported earlier speculators reduced bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for a fourth straight week, as net longs fell to their lowest level since late October, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The value of the dollar's net long position slid to $25.03 billion in the week ended Jan. 19, from $25.29 billion in the previous week. This was the third straight week that net dollar longs came in below $30 billion.
The volatility in financial markets driven by the downtrend in oil has diminished the allure of the dollar against both the euro and yen, which have lower interest rates than the U.S. currency.
This week, Japanese yen net longs totaled 37,653 contracts, from 25,266 previously. This week's yen net longs were the largest since mid-February 2012.

These days, the safe haven yen and low-yielding euro tend to struggle in times of increased risk appetite because these currencies are often used to fund investment in risky assets. They consequently rise back up when there is a retreat from those assets in periods of market stress.
Japan's exports fell 8.0 percent in December from a year earlier, down for the third straight month, Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday, in a sign the slowdown in China's economy and emerging markets is taking a toll on external demand.

The decline compares with economists' median estimate for a 6.8 percent drop in a Reuters poll. It followed a 3.3 percent decrease in November.
Imports fell 18.0 percent in December, versus the median forecast for a 16.4 percent decline, bringing the trade balance to a surplus of 140.2 billion yen ($1.18 billion). Economists expected a surplus of 100.0 billion yen.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 26: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
26 Jan 2016 02:04GMT

USD/JPY - ...... More on early comments by Aso, Reuters reported FinMin Taro Aso said on Tuesday that he hoped the Bank of Japan would continue with efforts to achieve its 2 percent inflation target but added that specific policy steps were up to the central bank to decide, and that Japan's fundamentals are not bad at all, falling oil prices are positive to economy .

"The BOJ has said it would not hesitate (to adjust policy) if necessary so we believe it is adhering to that stance," Aso told reporters after a cabinet meeting when asked about speculation over an imminent monetary easing. The BOJ holds its next policy review on Jan. 28-29.

Aso also expressed support for International Monetary Fund's chief, Christine Lagarde, who launched her campaign for a second term as managing director.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. Redbook, caseshiller 20, housing price index, Markit service PMI and consumer confidence.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Jan 2016 02:12GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite yesterday's impressive cross-inspired rally from 117.66 at European open to as high as 118.62 due to strong gain in the crude oil price which in turn triggered broad-based rise in European stocks n the Dow, dlr pared said intra-day gain n retreated in Asia on Wed as benchmark Brent crude oil price gave up half of yesterday's gain, current renewed weakness in the Shanghai composite (down 2%) has triggered another wave of yen-buying on risk aversion.

Dlr's intra-day retreat from 118.62 suggests further choppy trading below last week's 118.88 high would continue n investors' risk sentiment is pretty fragile and would react to decline in oil n stock prices, making trading tricky to say the least.
Offers are tipped at 118.50/60 and more above with stops reported above 119.00.
Some bids are noted at 118.10-00 with stops below 118.00.

Although market's focus remains on stocks n oil price, pay attention to FOMC's rate decision later today but market has largely discount any rate move by the Fed due to recent market turmoil n market anticipates the nearest rate move will not come until March 15-16 meeting whether Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference after the announcement.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 28: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
28 Jan 2016 01:12GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Reuters just reported Japan's retail sales fell more than expected in December, data showed on Thursday, suggesting that sluggish household spending will keep fourth-quarter economic growth subdued.
While many analysts expect the Bank of Japan to hold off on additional monetary easing at its two-day rate review ending on Friday, the weak data will likely keep policymakers under pressure to do more to reflate a fragile economic recovery.

Retail sales fell 1.1 percent in December from a year earlier to mark the second straight month of declines, more than a median market forecast for a 0.1 percent decline. Japan's economy has emerged from recession but growth remains subdued as sluggish emerging market demand and slow wage growth weigh on exports and private consumption.

Policymakers hope that the windfall from falling energy prices will nudge households to boost spending, though some analysts warn that the economy may have suffered a contraction in October-December on weak household spending.

The global market rout has also heightened pressure on the BOJ to expand monetary stimulus, though many central bankers prefer to stand pat this week as they cling to the view Japan's economy continues to recover moderately.
The retail sales data foreshadow a run of indicators due on Friday, including inflation and household spending.

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand exports, imports, trade balance, Japan retail trade, Australia import price index, export price index, Italy wage inflation, U.K. GDP, CBI distributive trade, Euro zone services sentiment, consumer confidence, industrial confidence, economic sentiment indicator, business climate, Germany CPI, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, U.S. initial jobless claims, durable goods and pending home sales.

 

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AceTraderFx Jan 29: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jan 2016 01:19GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Japan released a key set of data ahead of BoJ's monetary policy decision around Tokyo midday. Reuters reported Japan's core consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in December from a year earlier, government data showed today.
The core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, matched economists' median estimate for a 0.1 percent annual gain.

The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices and is similar to the core index used in the United States, rose 0.8 percent in the year to December.
Core consumer prices in Tokyo, available a month before the nationwide data, fell 0.1 percent in January from a year earlier, versus a 0.1 percent annual rise seen by analysts in a Reuters poll.

Reuters also reported Japan's industrial output fell 1.4 percent in December from the previous month, government data showed today, down for a second straight month in a sign that weakness in domestic and external demand is weighing on factory activity.
The reading compared with a median market forecast for a 0.3 percent decline in a Reuters poll of economists, data by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed.
Manufacturers surveyed by the ministry expect output to rise 7.6 percent in January and decline 4.1 percent in February, the data showed.

Data to be released on Friday:

New Zealand building permits, Japan unemployment rate, jobs/applicants ratio, all household spending, CPI, industrial production, interest rate decision, housing start, construction order, Australia producer price index, U.K. consumer confidence, France GDP, producer prices, consumer spending, Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italy producer price index, Euro zone CPI, U.S. GDP, employment cost index, good trade balance, personal consumption expenditures prices, Chicago PMI, The Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index, Canada producer prices and GDP

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 1: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Feb 2016 01:46GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Despite opening slightly higher n gaining to 121.49 ahead of Tokyo open, the greenback met renewed selling and retreated to 121.10 in early Tokyo morning, in part due to risk aversion triggered by the release of weaker-than-expected Chinese services n manufacturing PMIs.
Bids are now lowered to 120.90/00 and more below at 120.70/80 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 121.70/80, suggesting near term upside bias remains and buying on dips is favored.

Data to be released:

Australia AGI manufacturing index, TD securities inflation, China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, Japan manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, Euro zone manufacturing PMI, U.K. manufacturing PMI, mortgage approval, U.S. personal consumption expenditures, personal spending, personal income, construction spending manufacturing PMI and Canada manufacturing PMI on Monday.

Australia interest rate decision, Swiss retail sales, Germany unemployment rate, unemployment change, Italy unemployment rate, Euro zone unemployment rate, producer price index, U.S. Redbook and ISM New York index on Tuesday.

New Zealand unemployment rate, job growth, Australia AIG service index, building permits, imports, exports, trade balance, China service PMI, Japan consumer confidence index, Italy service PMI, CPI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, Euro zone service PMI, retail sales, U.S. mortgage applications, ADP employment change, service PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, participation rate and labour cost index on Wednesday.

Australia business confidence, Swiss consumer climate, U.K. Halifax house prices, U.K. Bank of England rate decision, MPC vote, U.S. initial jobless claims, unit labour cost, productivity and factory order on Thursday.

Australia retail sales, Germany factory orders, France imports, exports, trade balance, U.S. unemployment rate, non-farm payroll, average earnings, private payrolls, manufacturing payrolls, participation rate, trade balance, Canada imports, exports, international balance, participation rate, net change in employment and Ivey PMI on Friday.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
03 Feb 2016 01:20GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback met renewed selling at 120.86 in Europe yesterday and tumbled to 119.84 near New York closing on risk-averse buying of yen due to the drop in oil prices n selloff in U.S. stocks.
Dlr has continued to remain under pressure and dropped further to 119.49 in Tokyo morning due to the selloff in Nikkei-225 index (currently down).

Just earlier BOJ released its minutes, Reuters reported Bank of Japan policymakers debated the feasibility of adopting supplementary steps for their massive stimulus programme, though they agreed that the broad price trend was improving steadily, minutes of their December rate review showed on Wednesday.
"The members agreed that there was no need to adjust monetary policy now as underlying trend inflation was improving steadily," according to the minutes of the Dec. 17-18 meeting.

A few of them said that fine-tuning the BOJ's "quantitative and qualitative easing" (QQE) would allow the central bank to swiftly ease if needed, the minutes showed.
At the December meeting, the BOJ adopted several steps to fine-tune QQE such as extending the average duration of government bonds it purchases. At a subsequent meeting in January, the BOJ stunned markets by deploying negative interest rates while maintaining QQE.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 11: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

11 Feb 2016 00:02GMT
DAILY USD/JPY OUTLOOK - 113.58

Dlr's intra-day selloff below Tuesday's 114.21 low (now res) to a fresh 15-month trough of 13.12 after Fed Yellen's testimony suggests MT fall from 2015 top at 125.86 would resume towards 112.85 after consolidation, 'loss of momentum' should keep dlr above 112.45.

Lower short entry for 113.00 1st and only a daily close above 114.21 signals temp. low made, 115.00.

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan machine tool order, Swiss CPI, U.K. housing survey, U.S. initial jobless claims and Canada new housing price index.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Feb 2016 01:44GMT

USD/JPY - .... The Japanese yen took centre stage again in Asia today, not by its sharp price moves but by Japanese officials' rhetorics (see previous updates) who expressed dismay over this week's spectacular but unwelcome yen's ascent.

Although dlr briefly dipped to 111.91 when the Nikkei opened lower weakened by 4%, falling briefly below psychological 15,000 level, intra-day recovery in the N225 index plus comments by Japanese officials quickly lifted the pair to 112.60.

Looks like dlr would gain respite today n brings choppy trading above yesterday's fresh 15-month trough at 110.99. If Asian stocks pare recent losses, one can expect a modest bounce.
Bids are noted at 116.80-60 area and more below with stops below 110.90.
Offers are tipped at 112.60/70 with some stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 113.00/20 area. Pay attention to release of key U.S. retail sales at 13:30GMT.

Data to be released on Friday:
Germany CPI, GDP, Harmonised index of consumer prices, France nonfarm payrolls, Italy GDP, Eurozone GDP, industrial production, U.S. retail sales, import price index, export price index, leading economic index, business inventories and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

 

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AceTraderFx Feb 18: Daily Outlook (USD/JPY) & data to be released todayIntra-Day Market Moving News and Views

18 Feb 2016 03:38GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dollar briefly climbed to Asian morning high of 114.32 after release of downbeat Japan's trade data. Reuters reported Japan's exports fell 12.9 percent in January from a year earlier to mark a fourth straight month of declines, Ministry of Finance data showed on Thursday, in a sign of weakness in external demand amid a China-led global slowdown.

The fall compared with the median estimate of an 11.3 percent decrease in a Reuters poll of economists.
It followed an 8.0 percent drop in December.

Imports fell 18.0 percent in the year to January, versus the median estimate of a 16.0 percent decrease.
The trade balance swung to a deficit of 645.9 billion yen ($5.7 billion), against the median estimate of a 680.2 yen billion yen shortfall.

Bank of Japan board member Koji Ishida warned that the recent global market turbulence, if prolonged, could hurt Japan's economy by damaging household and corporate sentiment. But the sharp declines in energy costs were beneficial for a fuel-importing country like Japan, adding that concerns the current oil rout may trigger a global recession were overdone.

Japan had seen several cases in the past where a spike in oil prices pushed the global economy into recession, but has seen slumping oil prices trigger recession.

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand producer price index, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia, unemployment rate, employment, participation rate, China CPI, producer price index, Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, France CPI, inflation, Eurozone current account, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, CB leading indicator and Canada wholesale sales.

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