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[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 27 June – 1 July 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– all last week’s forecasts were made with the proviso that they would remain in force only before the beginning of the UK referendum. And given that very proviso, the prediction for EUR/USD may be considered as panned out. The majority of both experts and indicators reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 1.1340 – 1.1400. The level of 1.1200 was referred to as the main support. Eventually, notwithstanding various expectations as to the outcome of the British plebiscite, the pair could keep within the range of 1.1235 – 1.1420. As to Friday, June 24, that day the pair plunged by 500 points, then it retraced a half of the movement – up to the level of 1.1190 and ended the week at the levels of late May – at the area of 1.1100;



– last week it was virtually impossible to give any holistic forecast for GBP/USD. However, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, if the citizens of the United Kingdom vote to leave the EU, the pair could go down to the mark of 1.1000. However, that didn’t happen, the downswing was impressive – 1790 points just in a few hours. As to the final outcome of the week, the pair stalled at the mark of 1.3675 - the low last seen in early 2009;




– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that pair would be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it would get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50. That’s exactly what happened – during the first half of the week the pair held onto the range of 103.55 – 105.00, on Thursday it went up to the marks of 105.00 – 106.80, and on Friday, having reacted to the outcome of Brexit, it paused at the level of 102.10 (the pivot point of the first half of 2014);


– as to USD/CHF pair, its reaction to the outcome of the referendum appeared to be rather mild – it was up less than 150 points from the last week’s marks, and it kept within the range predicted by the experts.



***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– making forecast for EUR/USD, 80% of experts, backed by the vast majority of indicators on Н4 and D1, insist that the pair will once again test the last week’s low, trying to go down to the area of 1.0800 – 1.0900. As to the remaining 20% of analysts, they believe that the pair will follow suit of USD/CHF, which after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, gradually returned to initial values. Hence they expect EUR/USD to rise to the marks at the area of 1.1350;



– as to GBP/USD, it’s very difficult to predict its future and in the short term it is likely to react emotionally to any statements of newsmakers in respect of the future of Great Britain and Europe. That is why opinions of the analysts are split almost equally: 40% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall and 30% - for a sideways trend. As to the technical analysis, 90% of indicators on Н4 and 100% on D1 point down. However, we’d recommend not to be guided by their readings in the current situation;




– as to the future of USD/JPY, 60% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the landmark level of 100.00, and may be even further – to the bottom at the zone of 097.00 – 098.00. The remaining 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 express an alternative point of view, they predict that the pair will move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 70% of experts expect the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. 85% of indicators on Н4 and 60% on D1 agree to this point of view. With this, the graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that before going north, the pair may drop to the support at 0.9650 – 0.9670. The medium-term forecast for this pair is the same – rise above the level of 1.0000.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 04 – 08 July 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, those 20% of analysts, suggesting the gradual rise of the pair, alike the rise of USD/CHF after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, turned out to be right. At least, over the past week the pair regained nearly 150 points and wrapped up the week within the area of lows seen in late May – early June;

– the forecasts as to the future of GBP/USD were also vague, as well as the forecasts in respect of future relationships of Great Britain and EU: last week opinions of the analysts were split almost equally: 30% voted for the pair’s fall, 40% - for the its rise and 30% - for a sideways trend. That’s exactly what happened: first the pair slightly fell, then it went up a little bit, then it moved downwards again and eventually it appeared at the low of June 24 - 1.3270, having fulfilled expectations of all experts, including those supporting a sideways trend;

– making forecast for USD/JPY, 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 predicted that the pair would move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00, which did happen, only range-adjusted – it turned out to be even narrower than predicted - 101.40–103.40;

– as to USD/CHF pair, 70% of experts, backed by the majority of indicators, expected the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. The pair did rallied fairly quickly to the predetermined level, where it had been stalling during the midweek, following which it went down to the same values it had started the week from – to the area of 0.9730.

***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– the effects of Brexit are likely to influence the condition of markets for a very long time. And uncertainty in respect of the way the Foggy Albion will be separated from the EU (and whether it will ever be separated) causes uncertainty in forecasts of analysts. As to the acting of EUR/USD for the upcoming week, 45% of analysts insist on the pair’s rise, 45% - on its fall, and the remaining 10% reached a compromise voting for a sideways trend. Readings of the indicators show the same variety of opinions, but the graphical analysis on Н4 draws a well-defined sideways channel within1.1035–1.1180. With this, you should consider that NFP data – the key figure of economic health of the USA - will be released on Friday, July 08, which usually cause spikes in exchange rate of US dollar. Unlike the fuzzy week forecast, the medium-terms forecasts provide a much clearer picture: over 80% of analysts reckon that in somewhere about two months the pair will go down first to the level of 1.0800, and then further – to the area of 1.0500–1.0600;

– as to GBP/USD, here we can see a unique situation – 100% of experts, fully backed by the technical analysis, predict a sideways trend, which is of course due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. The level of 1.3300 is referred to as the pivot point, 1.3070 – as the lower boundary of the channel, 1.3550 – as the upper boundary. As to the forecast until the end of the month, here more than 55% of experts tend to believe that the pair will fall below the level of 1.3000;

– as to the future of USD/JPY, almost 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the zone of 100.00–101.00. With this the area of 103.50 is indicated as the main resistance level. An alternative point of view, supported by the remaining experts and the graphical analysis on D1, suggests a possible rise of the pair to the level of 106.30. Therewith, you should consider that currently USD/JPY is at the pivot point level of the first half of 2014, and it may move alongside this line for some time;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, it’s highly likely that the pair will continue fluctuating around the pivot point of 0.9800, and with this it will pursue bullish attempts to return to the landmark level of 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

June 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX


We continue posting ratings of MQL5 trading signals, which you can easily subscribe to using the tab ‘Signals’ at the bottom of terminals МТ4 and МТ5. As a reminder, this service is a very effective substitute of your own trading - manually or with the help of the advisors. The main difficulty here is choosing those strategies worth to be subscribed to. Currently around five thousand strategies are presented on ‘the display window’, and selecting the ones, resulting in a sustainable profit, rather than in a one-time deposit loss, is quite challenging.


As usual, John Gordon – expert in investment security and leading analyst at broker company NordFX, analyzing mistakes, often made by investors, subscribing to any given signal, is acting as our consultant in respect of this service.


Following the results of June preferences of the subscribers/investors are as follows:

I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 75%, 430 subscribers),

II. Arrow (growth 1461%, 204 subscribers),

III. Stable Forex Profit (growth 10562%, 199 subscribers),

IV. Small to BIG Money (growth 341%, 179 subscribers),

V. Q2FX (growth 1748%, 119 subscribers),

VI. Lemar Investment Group (growth 742%, 106 subscribers),

VII. Setka Real2 (growth 1013%, 104 subscribers),

VIII. LVIK Forex Commo (growth26%, 75 subscribers),

IX. A1 Daily Profit (growth 1152%, 64 subscribers),

X. Y2016 (growth 1491%, 63 subscribers).


“For starters”, offers John Gordon, “let’s give some general statistics. So, as compared to the previous month, Top 10 is renewed by 60%. The previous providers left in the top list are:

– MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 –still ranks No. I;

– Lemar Investment Group – the signal moved ahead one step – from VII to VI place;

– Small to BIG Money – conversely, dropped one place and currently holds IV position;

– and signal Q2FX, which switched from VIII place to V.


As to the other signals, which were among previous May TOP-10, the situation is as follows:

– Fusion Project moved down from the sixth to the thirty-third place in the rating of popularity among the subscribers;

– CB06143 changed its name to TRIPLEX 003 TYPE AA, and giving up its positions, currently holds the twenty-fourth place instead of the tenth;

– Green Line Signals, was not even in TOP-10, but in TOP-3 during several months, currently it didn’t just drop out of the leaders’ team, but lost almost all its subscribers, showing a drawdown of 97% from the deposit;

– Pound Aussie Real appeared on the 36th place versus the previous 2nd;

– Asia Balance – ranks No.37 (previously – No.9);

– signal MAXI showed the greatest drop in the rating, it moved down from the 6th place to the 57th.”


“It should be noted that our forecasts as to the reliability of a given signal”, continues analyst of NordFX, “mostly pan out. And those signals, positively recommended by us, usually can easily stand and tick along even the sharpest fluctuations of cross rates, even the ones seen during Brexit. However, unfortunately, quite often investors choose absolutely other signals, being guided only by the profit figures and paying no attention to our calls for being cautious, which leads to quite poor results. For an example, I'd like to cite what we told about Green Line Signals three months ago, in March:


“Consider”, I wrote previously, “the signal is just 12 weeks old, its maximum drawdown is 53%, and such close calls happened twice over three months. On the signal provider’s website, the figure is an even more alarming 63%. Time will tell whether I’m right or wrong urging to be extremely cautious with this signal.”

“Time proved I was right, and instead of previous growth of 700% June figures showed loss of 65% with the maximum drawdown of 96%!”


"Generally, while selecting signals for subscription,” John Gordon says, "I urge to analyze other signals of the same author as well. We may take signal Pound Aussie, being among TOP-10 in May, as an example. Apart from this signal, its author offers to subscribe to two more signals: Mix Demo and London Hawk. Needless to say, that the first signal, operating on a demo account, shows a very impressive deposit growth – 1200% in little over a year. But a drawdown is also impressive – 81%, which is a cause for serious concerns. And if the account, which you use for a subscription, also includes a bonus from your broker, with such a drawdown it almost 100% likely to be zeroed.


The second signal – London Hawk – is operating on the real account, it is only 7 weeks old, it shows growth of 24%, but herewith the maximum drawdown has already tested the mark above 53%. The obvious conclusions spring to mind. And more than 80% of investors have already come to such conclusions, having cancelled the subscription to Pound Aussie Real.


Or, for example, another signal which just amazes with its profitability – Panen Profit, plus 9113% in just under a year! And the maximum drawdown for such a growth is quite acceptable – 50% from the deposit. It's an excellent result but for several ‘buts’.

The first one is what I call "reverse martingale" – trade tactics where first the author of a signal gains ‘pace’ of the deposit with a high risk, and then sharply slows down. With such a scheme, only those investors signed to the signal at the very beginning of its lifespan get the main profit. And here example of Panen Profit is very illustrative: September of 2015 – plus 290%, October – plus 238%, November – 8%, and further from 9 to 27% per month.

As a whole and with such figures the subscription can turn out to be quite profitable, but there is the second ‘but’, which is that the drawdown of 50% appeared not when the growth was approaching to 300%, but during the months with a rather gradual increase of the deposit of 20–25%.


Of course, a degree of admissible risk is determined by the investor himself and nobody else. I'm just trying to help with accurate assessment of a balance between this risk and profitability.

Let's assume that you had been signed to Panen Profit since 6/1/2016. For this month the deposit growth made around 25%, and the drawdown – 50%. Subscription cost – 30 USD/per month. So that you could leave in a month with zero result, your initial deposit should make 120 USD. The risk of loss makes 50% from 120 USD, that is 60 dollars, plus 30 dollars paid for the subscription, total 90 USD. But if your deposit makes, let's say, 1200 USD instead of 120, it will be a different and more attractive scenario," - John Gordon from NordFX sums up. "Specifics and a great advantage of the service 'Signals' is in the fixed cost of subscription, regardless of the size of the investor's deposit. Thus, with deposit growing higher, not only absolute, monetary profit is increasing, but also relative profit, expressed as percentage from the initial capital, the risk is, correspondingly, decreasing, which is good news for any investor".

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11 – 15 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, based on the readings of the graphical analysis a sideways trend within the range of 1.1035–1.1180 was indicated as the main scenario. Indeed, the pair was keeping within 1.1028–1.1185 during the entire week, and even Friday release of NFP data couldn’t drive it out of this channel for long. Eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1050;


– making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts tended to believe that during the month the pair should plunge below the level of 1.3000. In contrast, the week review reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways trend with the pivot point of 1.3300. However the pair couldn’t rise above this level and already during the first half of week hit the monthly target, having moved down to 1.2795, whereafter it changed over to a sideways trend within the range of 1.2870–1.3050;


– predicting the acting of USD/JPY, nearly 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall to the area of 100.00–101.00, which did happen with 100% accuracy: the area of 100.20 acted as the main support for the pair, 99.98 – as the low of the week;


– USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair reckoned that the pair was highly likely to fluctuate around the pivot point of 0.9800 and tend to return to the landmark level of 1.0000. Eventually, the pair soared on the news from the USA, got to the level of 0.9865, and then rebounded, ending the week at the level of 0.9830.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:


Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– this time it was easy to sum up opinions of experts and reading of the technical analysis about the future of EUR/USD. 90% of analysts, 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis concur and elaborate that the pair will fall to the low of June 24, the day when the results of Brexit referendum had been announced. Afterwards the pair should transit to a side movement within the range of 1.0900–1.0970. An alternative scenario also provides for a movement in a sideways channel, however a bit more northwards – within the range of 1.0970–1.1050;


– as to the future of GBP/USD, it’s clear that opinions of indicators (70%) are south-oriented. 25% of experts also look southwards. However, according to the majority of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis, after bouncing off the bottom in the area of 1.2860, the pair should upswing, where, having reached the resistance of 1.3370, for some time it should keep within the channel of 1.3100–1.3370, and then it will get back to the support of 1.2860;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast is practically unchanged - fluctuations around the pivot point of 0.9850 with prevalence of bullish trends. The nearest resistance level will be at 0.9945, target will be at 1.0000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18 – 22 July 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered only partly fulfilled – the experts reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways channel, but only after its sliding down, as a result of which the level of 1.1050 should act as the resistance zone. However, as the last week showed, it continued to act as the upper boundary of the support area of 1.1025–1.1050, and all attempts to break through it failed. Eventually the pair has been moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160 for almost three weeks, which is, obviously, due to the uncertainty around effects of Brexit on Europe;


– making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, tended to believe that the pair would soar, having rebound from the bottom in the area of 1.2860, where it would reach the resistance of 1.3370 and briefly pause within the range of 1.3100–1.3370. That is just what happened. Then on Thursday under the onslaught of bulls, the pair could go further upwards and reached the level of 1.3480, but by Friday night their pressure weakened and the pair returned into the predetermined range, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3180;


– and acting of USD/JPY must have come as a big surprise to analysts. The pair was expected to follow the scenario of spring/summer 2014 and move within the ranges, predetermined by the support levels of 100.20 and 99.00 and resistance levels of 102.30 and 103.50. However, having bounced off the support of 100.20, the pair made such a mighty heave, that it literally flew over nearly 600 points, got to the level of 106.320 and at once regained everything it had lost during announcement of Brexit results;


– USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair can be considered 100% fulfilled. As it was expected, the pair had been fluctuating around the pivot point of 0.9850. In attempts to return to the zone of 1.0000, it could reach the high of 0.9893, and afterwards it again returned to the pivot point and ended the week at the level of 0.9820.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:


Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– as to EUR/USD, it’s clear that in this case all indicators point to south. However the majority of experts reckon that the pair will continue moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160. ECB rate decision and speech of Mario Draghi on Thursday can make some adjustments, and thus a certain rise of the pair is possible. As to the graphical analysis, it points out that the pair, following the example of USD/JPY, may well surge upwards, paring losses it had incurred during the referendum in the Foggy Albion. In this case 1.1220, 1.1290 and 1.1410 are deemed as the resistance levels. An alternative scenario, backed by only 25% of analysts for now, suggests that the pair would go down to the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900;


– as to the future of GBP/USD, according to both opinions of analysts and technical analysis, the bearish trend still gets a firm hold of the market. However, in terms of retracement, during the upcoming week the pair has potential to rise to the resistance of 1.3470 (and according to the graphical analysis on H4 even higher – up to 1.3800), following which it will again plunge – first to the support of 1.3100, and then to its historic lows in the area of 1.2800;


– opinions of the analysts about the future of USD/JPY may be narrowed down to the point, that last week’s rebound upwards is only a retracement, and that bulls’ strength is almost gone. Eventually, the pair is expected to change over to the sideways movement within 104.50–106.50 (the next resistance will be at 107.80) during the next week. Graphical analysis and indicators agree to this scenario, which both the ones on Н4 and on D1 took a neutral position. Medium-term forecast suggests that the descending trend, started as early as last December, should continue and the pair would retest the level of 99.00;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, according to virtually all analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4 and 80% of indicators, the pair will remain bullish and continue moving in an ascending trend. The nearest target will be at 0.9950, then at 1.0000. The main support will be at 0.9800, and if will be broken through – 0.9680.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

British Pound – Nosedive After Brexit


After Brexit every second Brit predicts the end to the United Kingdom within the next 10 years. These are the shocking data of survey conducted by BBC. It is clear, that such turmoil cannot but effect the future of the British pound as well – one of the major currencies being traded on the Forex market now.


GBP/USD pair steadily holds the third place in world hierarchy of currencies in respect of the liquidity level. The volume of transactions thereon before the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum made about 12% of all transactions on Forex, and one of the key factors determining popularity of this pair among traders is its high volatility.

Statistics for the recent years demonstrated extremely high sensitivity of GBP to fundamental factors including not only data on the state of British economy and decisions of the Bank of England, but also similar data from Europe and the USA. Significant rate fluctuations of the British pound constantly led to statements of European officials and their colleagues overseas.

And it all occurred prior to Brexit! What will happen to the ‘British’ in the conditions of a real force majeure?


“It is logical to assume,” the leading analyst of NordFX broker company, John Gordon says, “that until the authorities of Great Britain officially announce the beginning of procedure of exit from the EU and launch a specific implementation of this decision, the pound will try to circle the wagons and even make an effort to somewhat improve its positions. But as soon as the distance between Europe and the United Kingdom will really begin to increase, the pound will see truly 'rainy days'. Problems with the budget and serious current account deficit are evident. Under such circumstances it will be very difficult to slow down outflow of investment capital and at least to neutralize bull sentiment in the foreign exchange market.”


On the flip side, the specialist and Chief European Economist of the Bank of England, Johnathan Loynes, reckons that fall of exchange rate of the pound, conversely, can serve well to national economy. “The pound dropped more than by 11% against the currency basket”, J. Loynes stated, “and it is perceived as something negative. However the exchange rate of the pound prior to Brexit had been too high and hadn’t contributed to reduction of trade deficit of the country, making British export non-competitively expensive”. “Decline in the exchange rate of the pound can kick serious start to export of Great Britain again”, he comforted the British industrialists in his recent report.


These comments closely echo the opinion of the winner of the Wolfson prize, economist Roger Bootle, who – even before the referendum! – stated that if British citizens voted for exit from the EU and the pound sharply depreciated, in the long term it would have a positive effect – would help to balance trade and bridge the trade balance deficit by means of increase in export of Great Britain and reduction of the domestic demand for import.


As for the analysts of Credit Suisse Fixed Research, they, perhaps, do not share the optimism of their colleagues from the Bank of England and they announced a major revision of the forecasts for the major currency pairs.

The prevailing revision is that the forecast for GBP/USD decreased from 1.58 to 1.22. As for the three-months forecast for EUR/USD, according to Shahab Jalinoos from Credit Suisse, it is cut to 1.05. “Now, when the negative scenario became a reality,” the analyst says, “we believe that the market will continuously strive to sell this pair.”


The specialists of the Dutch financial conglomerate ING predict a bit deeper decline for GBP/USD. According to their forecasts, the pair can soon go down to 1.10-1.20. With this, in a longer term the analytics of ING paint a bleaker picture connected with a possible holding of the second Scottish independence referendum and loss of the status of the reserve currency by the pound. “It is clear that lack of clarity (in respect of the future of Great Britain), Head of FX Strategy at ING in London, Chris Turner, says, – will push GBP towards extreme devaluation.


As for investment bank JPMorgan, summarizing the results of Brexit, it also updated the forecasts, considering that as early as in the third quarter of 2016 GBP/USD will fall below the level of 1.29, and EUR/GBP will reach the mark of 0.8760.


“Even before Brexit”, – says John Gordon from NordFX, “analysts indicated the level of 1.30 against the US dollar as the critical level.

Therewith it is believed that if the pair is consolidated below it, then the pound might be expected to go down further to 1.15, and then even further down – down to parity with American currency. The pair had already tested the level of 1.28, the future, however, largely depends on those steps which will be taken by the authorities of Great Britain.”


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as to EUR/USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue moving in a sideways channel. This prediction may be deemed as panned out, if we consider the month range of 1.0970–1.1180, at which the pair appeared to stall after Brexit. With this, it should be mentioned that only 25% of analysts predicted that the pair would go down and strive to retest the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900, and there are only around 50-60 points left before it reaches this level;


– GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and during the entire week the pair had been fluctuating within 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivot point of 1.3200, which complies with the low of June 24 and which is due to absence of any significant news in respect of Brexit;


– the forecast about acting of USD/JPY was 100% fulfilled. The analysts reckoned that the upward rebound, seen two weeks ago, was only a retracement. In their opinion the pair should change over to the sideways movement with the resistance at 106.50, which it virtually did. The area of 107.80 was indicated as the next resistance, which the pair tried to reach on Thursday, but as the experts expected, the powers of bulls weakened, and the pair returned to the level of 106.00;


– USD/CHF – as it was expected, the pair kept bullish bias, however, so far it failed to get to the level of 1.0000. Having bounced off the support of 0.9800, the pair soared to the high of 0.9800, but afterwards it rebounded downwards again and wrapped up the week at the level of 0.9860.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– as to EUR/USD, 70% of experts, backed by 100% of indicators, tend to believe that during the upcoming week or two the pair will make attempts to reach the level of 1.0900. The remaining 30% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H1 represent an alternative viewpoint, they reckon that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel with the support of 0.9550 and the pivot point of 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements on Wednesday may change this trend;


– Brexit picture is so mixed, that the graphical analysis for GBP/USD on all main time frames doesn’t allow making any forecasts. As to the majority of experts (75%), in their view bearish sentiment continues at the market, and the pair, having finished the retracement, will strive to the support within 1.2850–1.2900, and 95% of indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario;


- opinions of the analysts and indicators as well as the graphical analysis about the future of USD/JPY can be narrowed down to the thing, that the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel, and afterwards, having bounced off the resistance in the area of 107.40–107.60, will go south and, having broken through the support of 105.50, will go down by further 200 points – to the support of 103.50. But here, Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, released in the early Friday morning, can make certain adjustments;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, everything remains unchanged: the bullish bias of the pair attempting to reach the level of 1.0000, the pivot point at 0.9880, the first support will be at 0.9840, the second – at 0.9840, and if it will be broken through – fall to the level of 0.9700.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 01 – 05 August 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as to EUR/USD one alternative forecast suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support of 0.9550 and the pivot point of 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements, due to be released on Wednesday, were supposed to change this trend. And that was the case: the miracle didn’t happen, to the utter disappointment of investors, the interest rate was kept on hold at 0.5%, and thus the greenback fell against euro by around 200 points;


– GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and for the second consecutive week the pair had been moving within the range of 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivot point of 1.3200. Bearish sentiment was expected to predominate at the market, but news from the USA weighed in on here, whereby the pair ticked up a little bit and transited from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper one;


– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the retracement was over, and, having broken the support of 105.50, the pair would go south to the next support in the area of 103.50. But a reservation, declaring that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision could make certain adjustments, was also made here. And as it turned out to be higher as it was expected (–0.1% versus expected –0.2%), yen reinforced its positions against the US dollar even more, reaching the level of 102.00 by the end of the week;


– USD/CHF – as it was expected, till the mid-week the pair kept bullish bias and went up to the mark of 0.9950. And then, as often happens during coming out of headline news, mirrored the acting of EUR/USD, and, having broken through the support levels of 0.9840 and 0.9800, it went down, wrapping up the week at 0.9700 - the area of the third support, indicated by experts.



***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– as to EUR/USD, opinions of experts were split equally. 50% of them, backed by the graphical analysis on H1 as well as by 90% of indicators on H4 and on D1, tend to believe that the pair will continue rising and try to consolidate in the area of 1.1250–1.1300. As for the second half of experts, in their opinion the pair is currently keeping within the upper boundary of the range of 1.0955–1.1190, having bounced off which it should start going south. With this it should be taken into account that on August 5, 2016 NFP data – the key indicator of economic health of the USA - will be released, and they usually result in plummeting of exchange rate of buck. According to some forecasts NFP for this month can drop from 287k to 175k;


– Brexit picture is still mixed, that’s why 75% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis and indicators on D1, believe that GBP/USD will continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335 with the pivot point of 1.3200. And only 15% of analysts do not rule out the possibility that it will try to retest July lows in the area of 1.2800 again. NFP data as well as ECB meeting on Wednesday and a series of headline news from the Bank of England, due to be released on Thursday, August 04, can influence formation of a new trend;


– as to the future of USD/JPY, 30% of analysts in line with 100% of indicators reckon that the pair will try to go down to the level of 100.00. Almost 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 do not agree with this version. In their opinion the level of 101.50 will become a strong support to the pair, and backing on it, the pair will make attempts to reach the resistance of 103.60, and if it will be broken through – even get to 106.50. And, finally, the third scenario is offered by remaining 30% of analysts, voting for a sideways trend alongside the pivot point of 102.50;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, here experts along with the graphical analysis on H4 predict that the pair will move in a sideways channel of 0.9660–0.9720 for a while, and afterwards it will go down to the support of 0.9500. Such a scenario will be more likely if the forecast for change in NFP will turn out to be correct.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 08 – 12 August 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as to EUR/USD, the pair met expectations of both those experts supporting its rise to the area of 1.1250 and those predicting that the pair would start going south. So earlier in the week the pair surged upwards, reaching the mark of 1.1235 on Tuesday, and afterwards it reversed and showed an equal plunge. Acting of the pair on Friday was somewhat surprising, when the USA data were announced. As a reminder, the forecast reckoned that NFP could drop from 287k to 175k. Actual value (255k) indeed came out lower than the previous one, but not enough to meet expectations of the market. Eventually instead of weakening, the greenback strengthened its positions, rebounding by over 100 points versus euro. However then the pair returned to the pivot point of the last six weeks – to the area of 1.1090;


– GBP/USD. Uncertain situation with Brexit seems to balance the powers of bulls and bears for long. That’s why 75% of experts, backed by the technical analysis, believed that the pair would continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335. This is exactly what happened – neither ECB meeting, held on Wednesday, nor news from the Bank of England, released on Thursday, nor NFP data, released on Friday, could drive it out of this channel. Eventually the pair ended the week virtually at the lower boundary of the predetermined range – at 1.3060;


– giving forecast for USD/JPY, experts failed to form any consensus - 30% of analysts reckoned that the pair would try to go down to the level of 100.00, 40% of experts believed that it won’t be able to break through the support of 101.50, and, finally, the rest 30% voted for its sideways movement. In fact, on the second try the pair could break through the level of 101.50, and having turned it into the resistance, it changed over to a sideways trend, where it had consolidated till the release of NFP, whereby it returned to the area it had started the week from - 102.00;


– USD/CHF – as it was expected, earlier in the week the pair was moving in a sideways channel within 0.9660–0.9720, and afterwards it went down. However, it failed to get to the support of 0.9500, when rebounded from the last week’s low it reversed and, being supported by the news from Europe and the USA, it moved upwards, wrapping up the week around the key level of the last two years - 0.9800.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– as to EUR/USD, most experts concur that the down trend, started on August 2, will continue, and the next target for the pair will be the support within 1.0950–1.1000. 85% of indicators on H4 and D1 as well as the graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agree to this scenario. With this, the graphical analysis specifies that early in the week the pair may tick up to the upper boundary of the down trend – up to 1.1130, having bounced off which it will go down to the support of 1.1035, and then even further down to 1.0950. If the resistance of 1.1130 is broken through, the pair can rise up to the next resistance of 1.1170, which is at the upper boundary of a three-month descending channel, which had begun on May 3. The third resistance will be at 1.1220;


– 70% of experts expect GBP/USD to rebound upwards from the lower boundary of the horizontal channel of 1.3050–1.3335, and according to them it will keep within this range for a few days. The remaining 30% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the increased volatility of the pair will allow it to expand this range up to the levels of 1.2800 and 1.3500. In this case the upwards rebound should be expected already from this channel of 1.2800. Early next week we’ll see which of this scenarios will play out, however, it should be mentioned that all 100% of experts predict that during August the price will retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure;


– as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts share the same opinion that the down trend of the entire 2016 has not finished yet, and the pair should be expected to go down first to the support of 100.00, and then further down to 98.90. With this, according to the graphical analysis on Н4, it is possible that before plunging the pair will first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel (clearly seen on D1), which is at the area of 103.50–104.00;


– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the half of experts believes that the pair will try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 agree with this. The rest 50% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 reckon that the level of 0.9800 will become rather a pivot point, alongside which the pair will be moving within 0.9735–0.9900, than a support.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.