Technical Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD PRE NFP Report: 1.1090 and 1.1050 important levels



The EURUSD is trapped within a running triangle and it is clearly waiting for NFP result. Latest ADP report was better than expected so NFP could be also better than the forecast (175K). In addition to NFP traders need to pay attention to Average Hourly Earnings ( important data for labour inflation ) and unemployment rate.

Technically EURUSD is showing 1.1090 and 1.1050 as important levels. If the pair spikes above 1.1090 (H4,EMA89,the top of the triangle) the target should be 1.1154-70 zone. If the price tanks below 1.1050 we might see 1.1005. Pay attention to spikes as the report will bring back volatility in the markets.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/CAD W bullish breakout



The USD/CAD is advancing towards H4 camarilla PP 1.3091 after a W bullish breakout of H3 1.3066 level. If the pair breaks and closes above 1.3091 next targets are 1.3108-20 (double top, historical sellers) and 1.3140. Oil is dropping, SP500 hit a record overnight and price action suggests buying on pullbacks.
POC 1 is 1.3066 (W breakout, 23.6, H3), while POC2 is 1.3020-30 (DPP, trend line top, 61.8).Have in mind that L3 and EMA are also providing support at 1.3000-10 so there are fresh buyers waiting should we see a pullback. H4 is also bullish as we can see from our mini chart.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY advance towards resistance



The GBP/JPY aka "the Dragon" has a strong correlation with equities. Last night Japan, HK and Australian markets went up due to commodities prices up, abenomics in Japan, and follow through risk-on due to US Equities performing strongly overnight. Nikkei was probably the best performer as it has been up 1200pts in 3 days.

The dragon is making an advance towards 138.00-20 zone where it should face resistance. POC consists of H5 weekly PP, 61.8, Historical sellers (blue quadrant) , EMA89 and it should possibly bring some fresh selling on the pair towards 134.60. 139.20 is the last line of defense before we possibly see another advancement towards 144.05. Traders should know that if the pair breaks 144.05 it should set up a new mid term goal possibly towards 160.10 retest.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY possible fade around 105.90



The USD/JPY is progressing towards POC zone (88.6, historical sellers) 105.85-106.00 where it might reject towards 105.00 and 104.25. If we see a further drop below 104.25 then the door towards 113.40 will be open. Pay close attention to the zone as POC might be the last line of defense for bears. Today focal point is BOE meeting which the swaps market is pricing a 81% probability of a cut. Equities will move too so pay attention to SP500 and DAX.

“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD/NZD stepping up the trend line



AUD/NZD is in uptrend and traders are looking for new long opportunities on a pullback. New Zealand CPI is below expectations, there is also a possibility of a rate cut. Generally speaking New Zealand is a smaller economy, it might eventually lose to trade agreements and currently Australia has more bargaining power and more diverse economy. Fresh AUD strength started after elections but we also saw commodities up in the past week.

Technically AUD/NZD is showing confluence within H3, 61.8, and ascending trend line. 1.0640-60 is POC zone and we could see now moment buyers. If the pair makes 4h close above H4 it should target 1.0740. H4 chart shows possible extension to 1.0770. 1.0600 should hold for uptrend scenario to be valid.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Bearish below 1.1000



This week's focus is on ECB rate decision and conference tomorrow. I don't expect any changes in rate decision and ECB should come with a more accommodative stance. ECB should be focused on Italian banks as some of the banks have a bad loans ratio of nearly 40 % on their loan books. However, the Italian Govt is not supportive of bailouts. As a result Italian stock market has been hammered the last 12 months. Will there be a special deal? We will see tomorrow. Additionally, ECB might give us a cue about their post Brexit stimulus measures. Any dovish statement will tank the pair further to the downside.Adding to a weaker EUR is USD positive data.

Technically the EUR/USD spiked from 1.1045 zone towards 1.1080 resistance yesterday but failure to proceed further turned bears in control. It looks like a sell on rallies. The pair has broken through the bottom of the running bearish pennant and it needs to close below 1.0990 to proceed further towards 1.0950 and 1.0930. A break below 1.0930 will target 1.0880. Pullback towards 1.1100-1.1090 POC ( EMA89, 61.8, H4) could be used for shorts.

Additionally retests of 1.1030 could be good for short term sell setups.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD rejecting from the top of the right shoulder




Bad Services PMI data for GBP/USD today rejected the price from the top of the right shoulder that is clearly visible on H4 chart. Services PMI is likely to be down, because its mainly the finance sector that may leave the UK if they are no longer in EU. Some automotive industry may leave (eg Nissan), but new manufacturing may begin again because of cheaper GBP Remember the Banks need access to EU markets so Headquarters may shift and that is not good for GBP.

Technical analysis is aligned with fundametal analysis and as you could learn at Price Action Trading School my approach is to trade Head and Shoulders is to short it from the top of the right shoulder. 1.3250-80 zone provided short opportunities in now moment and history so next pullback could be short too. If we don't see a pullback short on rallies (on lower timeframes) is still the valid option. Bears are targeting 1.3100 then 1.3060. If we see the breakout below 1.3060 next target is 1.3000 and eventually 1.2790 during next weeks.

For intraday price action watch for rallies to short into towards 1.3100-1.3000 (with 1.3060 as support for new breakout).


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

AUD/NZD close to resistance but still bullish



As we could see in my previous AUD/NZD analysis, the pair went as expected. Additionally it was thetrade setup of the week on the previous Session Recap webinar. It seems that NZ dairy will be weak for some time and RBNZ is hinting at rate cuts, so the pair could still be bought on dips.

Technically the pair is approaching resistance 1.0725 - H5 daily PP. If we see a momentum above it it could hit 1.0755 and 1.0780 as the next target. However we might see a rejection too. If we see a rejection the POC for new longs is 1.0665-1.0685 (61.8, H3, EMA89, ascending trend line). Admiral Markets Supreme Edition tools also show bullish trend and H4 time frame bullish action.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/JPY trend line broken



The GBP/JPY aka "Dragon" dropped below the trend line and currently it is in downtrend. After hitting 135.94 lower support (L4 Cam weekly PP) it closed above L4 so we need a 4h close below it (136.80) for a further continuation down. Currently the pair is in retracement and there are 2 POC zones. POC1 (50.0, L3, historical sellers) 137.70-90 could reject the price down towards 136.80 and 135.94. If the price proceeds above 138.10 we could see POC2 rejection 138.70-85 (78.6, EMA89, trend line) towards 138.00 and 136.80.

If we don't see a retracement towards POC pay attention to 4h close below 136.80 (as stated above) for a further continuation towards 135.94 and 135.00 below it.


“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/GBP Time to short?



The EUR/GBP has formed a bearish pennant at resistance and this might be the time to watch for short trading opportunities. 0.8400-20 is the zone for shorts - POC, H4 camarilla PP is making a confluence with the upper pennant trend line and the price might reject 0.8340 and 0.8295. If we see a strong momentum below 0.8295 or 4h close below it then 0.8240 is the final target. At this point traders should be focused on POC rejections towards 0.8340 first as we can spot a support there (pennant lower trend line, L3).

If the price closes above 0.8445 the scenario will be negated and the pennant will be dismissed.



“Original analysis is provided by Admiral Markets”