AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

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Japan minster Ishihara said they & BOJ must work together to support the economy

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Jul 2016 01:11GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Reuters reported this morning that in the wake of premier Shinzo Abe's announcement of a bigger-than-expected fiscal spending package, economy minister Ishihara was quoted as saying that the government and the Bank of Japan must work together to support the economy.
The remark suggests the earlier-than-expected announcement of Abe's economic package on Wednesday was an attempt by the government to pressure the BOJ into expanding monetary stimulus at a two-day rate review ending on Friday.

Abe unveiled a surprisingly large 28 trillion yen ($267 billion) stimulus package on Wednesday to reflate the economy, sending Japanese stocks higher and weighing on the yen.
Many BOJ policymakers prefer to hold off on easing on Friday, worried about the rising costs and diminishing returns of an already massive asset-buying programme that is drying up bond market liquidity.

But Ishihara's remarks suggest that political considerations may nudge the BOJ into action, even as the central bank struggles to beat economic headwinds with its dwindling policy tool-kit.
Finance Minister Taro Aso had also told reporters on Tuesday that he hopes the BOJ continues to do its utmost to beat deflation, signalling his hope of additional monetary easing.

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Japan's Core Consumer Prices Suffered Biggest Annual Decline Since BOJ Stimulus Programme in 2013

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Jul 2016 01:05GMT

USD/JPY - 104.35.. Reuters reported Japan's core consumer prices in June suffered the biggest annual decline since the Bank of Japan embarked on its aggressive stimulus drive in 2013, piling pressure on the central bank to expand an already massive stimulus programme.
Separate data showed household spending fell 2.2 percent, down for a fourth straight month, underscoring the fragile nature of Japan's economic recovery.
Factory output rose 1.9 percent in June and the jobless rate fell to 3.1 percent, marking the lowest reading in nearly 21 years, with job availability at a nearly 25-year high, reflecting labour shortages, other data showed.

The data comes hours before the Bank of Japan concludes a closely watched two-day rate review ending on Friday, with near-consensus in markets that it will deploy additional stimulus to match the government's planned big spending package.

The central bank, under pressure from the government, is considering specific steps for expanding monetary stimulus to address signs of weakness in inflation, people familiar with the bank's thinking said.
The bank has been buying assets like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but already holds around a third of Japan's market for government bonds (JGBs).

The 0.5 percent fall in the core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was lower than economists' median estimate for a 0.4 percent annual fall. It fell for fourth straight month, and the decline was the largest since March 2013, just a month before the BOJ deployed the quantitative and qualitative easing programme.
The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices and is similar to the core index used in the United States, rose 0.4 percent in the year to June.

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The pound fell from ahead of Asian open today in late reaction on downbeat U.K. news

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
1 Aug 201601:09GMT

GBP/USD - 1.3228.. The pound fell from 1.3241 (AUS) to 1.3201 ahead of Asian open today in late reaction on a piece of downbeat U.K. news.
Reuters reported on Sunday from the Confederation of British Industry(CBI), British businesses are expecting economic growth to grind almost to a halt over the next three months due to weaker investment and consumer confidence after June's vote to leave the European Union.
CBI said the outlook was the weakest since December 2012 as the proportion of firms expecting lower output was now 3 percentage points higher than the share expecting growth.
This marked a sharp turnaround from June, when there was a 16 percentage point margin in favour of those anticipating growth.

"This data shows a weaker picture for UK economic growth," CBI Deputy Director-General Josh Hardie had said - though he added that the survey, conducted between June 27 and July 14, likely reflected a post-referendum low for consumer-facing firms.
"In manufacturing, although investment intentions are quieter as uncertainty weighs on corporate spending plans, the weaker pound is helping to boost exports' competitiveness."

The CBI's figures were partly based on its gloomy surveys of manufacturers' order books and retailers last week, with additional material from other services companies which make up the bulk of Britain's private-sector economy.
A survey by financial data company Markit earlier this month showed firms reported the biggest fall in activity since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, while GfK's consumer confidence index chalked up its sharpest decline since 1990.

Markit is due to provide more detailed figures later this week, and the Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday for the first time since 2009, when it presents an updated forecast for the British economy.

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AceTraderFx Aug 03: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
03 Aug 2016 01:14GMT

USD/JPY - ...... BOJ's policy board members shared the view that inflation expectations had weakened somewhat in the short term but remained on an upward path in the long term, minutes of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting held on June 15-16 showed on Wednesday.
The BOJ refrained from offering additional monetary stimulus at the June meeting despite anaemic inflation and weak global growth.
One member of in June repeated a call to reduce government bond purchases while another member said the focus has shifted to interest rates from asset purchases, highlighting doubts about the current policy framework.

At a subsequent meeting on July 29 the BOJ surprised investors by saying it would release a comprehensive review of its quantitative easing in September, reinforcing the view that the BOJ's current policy framework has reached its limit.

Reuters then reported Japan's top currency diplomat, Masatsugu Asakawa, said on Wednesday that foreign exchange moves were nervous and that he would watch the market closely.
Asakawa, the vice finance minister for international affairs, made the remarks to reporters at the ministry.

The dollar fell to a three-week low of 100.68 yen on Tuesday after the Japanese government approved a largely expected set of stimulus measures. It was trading around 101.20 yen on Wednesday.

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BoE's 'Super Thursday', British pound is expected to capture centre stage in European trading today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Aug 2016 01:28GMT

GBP/USD - 1.3338.. The British pound is expected to capture centre stage in European trading as market keenly awaits BoE's 'Super Thursday' and the outcome of MPC monetary policy decision.
Reuters reported the Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 later on Thursday, as Britain's economy teeters on the brink of recession after June's vote to leave the European Union.

Although the BoE wrong-footed financial experts three weeks ago by leaving rates unchanged, the central bank said most of its policymakers were likely to support action in August as post-referendum uncertainty depressed the economy.

Since then growth appears to have slowed sharply, and a closely watched industry survey on Wednesday suggested Britain's economy was shrinking at the fastest pace since the last time the BoE lowered rates.

Almost all economists now expect the BoE to cut rates by at least a quarter percentage point on Thursday to a record-low 0.25 percent, and many also think it may resume its multi-billion-pound programme of government bond purchases.
The BoE's chief economist, Andy Haldane, has said he is willing to respond to weak growth by using "a sledgehammer to crack a nut", but another, Kristin Forbes, said last month she had not seen enough evidence to support a rate cut.

While most business and consumer surveys point to a marked slowdown, it is too early for any cast-iron official data on how output has been affected by June 23's Brexit vote.
If the BoE does cut its Bank Rate to the lowest level in its 322-year history, it will join the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia, which both undertook unprecedented stimulus in the past week.

Only the U.S. Federal Reserve among the world's main central banks is considering tighter policy this year.
However, economists, including former top BoE officials, have doubts about how much good either rate cuts or more quantitative easing will do with both official interest rates and government borrowing costs already at or near record lows.

Charles Bean, who stepped down as the BoE's deputy governor in 2014, said the Bank still had options, such as expanding the array of assets it buys beyond government bonds to include corporate debt or even equities. But that could put public money at risk and be politically difficult.
"If you go into buying equities, as the Bank of Japan has dabbled with ... that is taking the Bank into quite political territory. If there was a decision to go that way it should be in conjunction with the Treasury," Bean said on Tuesday.

Many economists also expect the BoE to revitalise its waning Funding for Lending Scheme or take other measures to tempt banks to lend at record-low rates.

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AceTraderFx Aug 08: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY
08 Aug 2016 01:16GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Reuters just reported the Bank of Japan must conduct a thorough assessment of the effects of its existing stimulus programme to consider how best to achieve its 2 percent inflation target, BOJ expanded stimulus on July 29 by doubling purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF), yielding to pressure from the government and financial markets for bolder action.
It also said it will conduct an assessment of the effects of negative interest rates and its massive asset-buying programme in September, suggesting a major overhaul of its programme may be forthcoming.
Reuters then reported stark divisions in the views of Bank of Japan board members were highlighted on Monday, with some defending unlimited easing of monetary policy and others arguing the BOJ had done enough - to the point of driving big market swings and sapping bond market liquidity.

The debate underscores the challenges the central bank face as it attempts to address stagnant price growth and entrenched economic weakness with a dwindling set of policy tools.
The BOJ expanded stimulus at the July 28-29 meeting by doubling purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF), yielding to pressure from the government and market for bolder action, but the move fell short of market expectations.

The BOJ said it will assess at its September meeting the effects of its negative interest rates on some bank deposits and its massive asset-buying programme - suggesting an overhaul of its stimulus programme may be in the works.
Board members Takehiro Sato and Takahide Kiuchi, both of whom are economists, dissented to the decision to expand ETF purchases, arguing that it would distort market functions and expose the bank's balance sheet to excessive risk.

The summary of the July debate offered no clues to what specific policy steps could result from the BOJ's assessment of its existing stimulus programme.

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AceTraderFx Aug 09: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Aug 2016 01:04GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable tumbles in early Asian trading on 'dovish' comments by MPC member Ian McCafferty despite release of upbeat U.K. data.
British retail spending bounced back in July as sales promotions and good weather outweighed any immediate concern about the consequences of Britain's decision to leave the European Union, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The British Retail Consortium reported on retail spending in July was 1.9 percent higher than a year earlier, the biggest rise in six months and up sharply from 0.2 percent growth in June, when bad weather added to uncertainty around June 23's referendum.
On a like-for-like basis - a measure which strips out changes in floorspace and corresponds more closely with retailers' results - sales were up 1.1 percent on the year in July, compared with a 0.5 percent dip in June.

But economists have warned against using retail sales as a guide to the health of the economy, due to the data's sensitivity to the weather and because they expect it to lag other drivers of a post-referendum slowdown.

The BoE and others expect business and housing investment to slow first, and for consumer spending to hold up until the inflationary effects of sterling's post-referendum slump and a likely rise in unemployment hit households.
Next year the BoE predicts real-terms household consumption growth will slow to just 1 percent, less than half the rate it forecasts for this year.


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AceTraderFx Aug 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Aug 2016 01:12GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Reuters reported Japanese machinery orders rose more than expected in June in a sign that companies are gradually becoming more willing to increase capital expenditure.
Companies also expect core machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital expenditure, to rise in July-September, suggesting that business investment is starting to stabilise after a rocky performance in the previous quarter.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has compiled a stimulus package that focuses on infrastructure, which should support capital spending heading into next year, but risks remain that overseas economic turmoil could curb business investment.

Core machinery orders rose 8.3 percent, well ahead of the median estimate for a 3.1 percent increase, Cabinet Office data showed on Wednesday.
Manufacturers' orders rose 17.7 percent, while orders from the services sector rose 2.1 percent, the data showed.

Manufacturers surveyed by the Cabinet Office forecast that core orders will rise 5.2 percent in July-September, which compares with a 9.2 percent decrease in April-June.
Abe's cabinet last week approved an economic stimulus package with 13.5 trillion yen in fiscal measures as a precaution in case Britain's exit from the European Union undermines global economic conditions.

Many policymakers and economists have said capital expenditure is crucial because it creates jobs and increases productivity, both of which Japan's economy needs to be more vibrant.

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AceTraderFx Aug 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Aug 201602:18GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr gains respite in subdued Asian trading as Japanese financial markets are closed for Mountain Day holiday (this is an extra day off - Japan now has 16 public holidays a year - became law in 2014 but is just taking effect).

Despite initial weakness to 101.03 at Asian open, buying interest emerged above yesterday's low made in New York at 100.97 and lifted the pair, suggesting range trading is in store until European open.
For now, bids are reported at 101.00-100.85 area with stops below there, more stops are touted below last week's low of 100.68.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 101.40/50 with stops reported above 101.60, suggesting selling dlr on recovery due to broad-based weakness in the greenback in last 2 days is favoured.

Later today, U.S. will release the usual weekly jobless claims and July import and export prices.
The most important U.S. data for the week is Friday's key retail sales n traders are paying attention if July's reading will show a monthly increase 0.4% vs previous reading of 0.6%, if actual comes below forecast, then expect further usd bashing.

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AceTraderFx Aug 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views DLR/MAJORS

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Aug 2016 01:05GMT

DLR/MAJORS - The greenback rose in New York afternoon on Thursday where some traders attributed to hawkish comments by Fed official. Reuters reported the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates further this year, a top U.S. central banker said in an interview published on Thursday, reflecting improved labor market conditions and the likelihood that inflation is heading higher.
San Francisco Fed Official was quoted to say that as the economy gets closer to its goals, they can again pull our foot off the gas a bit and hopefully execute a nice, soft landing over the next couple of years.

President John Williams told the Washington Post in an interview conducted this week. Asked if the Fed's gradual rate increases should include any rate hikes this year, He replied that in my view, it does.
The Fed raised benchmark U.S. rates last December for the first time in nearly a decade, but did not continue to lift them as it had anticipated in order to cushion the economy from the slowdown in China and financial market turmoil.
John Williams had at the beginning of the year expected the Fed to raise rates several times in 2016, but global events have caused him to pencil in "a little more gradual pace of increases," he told the Washington Post.

Williams is not a voter this year on the Fed's policy-setting panel, but his comments are closely watched because his views are seen as reflecting those of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who was his boss when she ran the San Francisco Fed before she moved to Washington in 2010.

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