Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar break unlocks bearish momentum

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD used the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level as a support for a bullish bounce at wave 4

(green). Price also broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red) which could indicate the

continuation of wave 5 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is in a bullish break above resistance (dotted red) within wave 5 (green). A break below

the support trend line (green) would indicate that wave 5 (green) is most likely finished.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with an internal 5

wave indicated by wave 1-2 (pink). A break above the 100% Fib level invalidates the pink 1-2. For the

moment price seems to be expanding the bullish correction via a WXY (green) towards the resistance

trend line (red).

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted red) and not the support (greens) levels. The

bullish momentum has been marked as a wave A (blue) and a bullish zigzag could take place once

price breaks the new resistance (red).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY will either break the support (green) for a downtrend continuation or break above the

resistance (orange/red) and potentially start a reversal.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a leading diagonal for wave 1 (brown), which becomes

invalidated if price breaks below the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

Fibonacci levels present breakout spots in Forex

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a contracting triangle chart pattern (red/blue lines) at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave E vs D. A bullish break could price make an extension of wave 5 (green) towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bearish break (below blue) however could be a first indication that the ABC (purple) zigzag has been completed. A break below the other support lines (green) indicates the potential for a larger bearish reversal.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is either expanding wave 4 (green) or it has completed wave 5 (green). A break above resistance (red) indicates a bullish continuation, whereas a break below the Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3 (green) indicates a completion of wave 4 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with an internal 5 wave indicated by wave 1-2 (pink). A break above the 100% Fib level invalidates the pink 1-2. For the moment price seems to be expanding the bullish correction via a WXY (green) towards the resistance trend line (red/orange).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is struggling with the resistance trend line (orange) but a bullish break could see a continuation of wave C (blue) to the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. A bearish break below support (green) would indicate that wave Y (green) is completed and start a bearish reversal.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY will either break the support (green) for a downtrend continuation or break above the resistance (orange/red) and potentially start a reversal. The current wave 1-2 (blue) is invalidated if price breaks the bottom of wave 1.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has support (green) and resistance levels that mark a potential breakout.

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[Admiral Markets]

Fibonacci levels present breakout spots in Forex

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a contracting triangle chart pattern (red/blue lines) at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave E vs D. A bullish break could price make an extension of wave 5 (green) towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A bearish break (below blue) however could be a first indication that the ABC (purple) zigzag has been completed. A break below the other support lines (green) indicates the potential for a larger bearish reversal.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is either expanding wave 4 (green) or it has completed wave 5 (green). A break above resistance (red) indicates a bullish continuation, whereas a break below the Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3 (green) indicates a completion of wave 4 (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is either completing a wave 5 (blue) or extending the wave 5 (blue) with an internal 5 wave indicated by wave 1-2 (pink). A break above the 100% Fib level invalidates the pink 1-2. For the moment price seems to be expanding the bullish correction via a WXY (green) towards the resistance trend line (red/orange).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is struggling with the resistance trend line (orange) but a bullish break could see a continuation of wave C (blue) to the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. A bearish break below support (green) would indicate that wave Y (green) is completed and start a bearish reversal.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY will either break the support (green) for a downtrend continuation or break above the resistance (orange/red) and potentially start a reversal. The current wave 1-2 (blue) is invalidated if price breaks the bottom of wave 1.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has support (green) and resistance levels that mark a potential breakout.

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD bullish ABC zigzag faces robust resistance

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD remains in a large consolidation and the bearish breakout could take longer before materializing, which is the main reason why wave D (green) has been added. Once waves D (green) and E complete the triangle a strong bearish impulse is expected. For the moment price is respecting and pausing at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish break above resistance (red) should see price move towards the 78.6% Fib. A bearish break below support (greens) at 1.1250 should see price start wave Y (brown) of wave D (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is showing slow and corrective bullish price action which is one of the reasons why a bearish count is preferred unless price manages to break above resistance (red). At the moment an ABC zigzag (blue) to complete wave W (purple) and an ABC retracement (blue) within wave X (purple) seems to be taking place. However, if price shows strong momentum that breaks resistance (red), then yesterday’s wave count with a wave 5 remaining takes preference.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bounced at the resistance top (red) of the daily downtrend channel. A break above this resistance (red) and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level makes the current wave count unlikely. In such a scenario the wave count would change to a larger ABC correction (purple). A break of support (green) confirms the bearish mode.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be starting a new bearish wave 1-2 (purple) but this scenario is invalidated if price breaks above the 78.6% Fib. A break below support (greens) could start a bearish breakout towards +/-1.30.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a lengthy contracting triangle (orange/green). Price will either break the support (green) for a downtrend continuation or break above the resistance (orange/red) and potentially start a reversal. The current wave 1-2 (blue) is invalidated if price breaks the bottom of wave 1.

1 hour

The USD/JPY has support (green) and resistance (red/orange) levels that mark a potential breakout.

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[Admiral Markets]

Pullback to Fibonacci levels expected after impulsive USD breakouts

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD respected the resistance trend line (red) and broke various support levels (dotted

greens) on Friday. The bearish price action fits within the wave XY (brown) correction of wave D

(green). A bullish bounce at the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels of wave D vs B could complete wave D.

A break below these Fibs could change the wave to a bearish trend.

1 hour

The EUR/USD indeed completed a bullish ABC zigzag (blue) at the resistance (red) as indicated in

Friday’s edition. The subsequent bearish turn was accompanied with strong bearish momentum

which has been marked as a wave A (blue). The Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A should act as

resistance within the wave B (blue) retracement.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bounced at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 2 vs 1 (pink) and the

resistance top (red) of daily downtrend channel (red). A break above this resistance (red) and the

78.6% Fibonacci retracement level indicates that the wave count would change to a larger ABC

correction within wave 4 (blue). A break of support (green) confirms the bearish mode.

1 hour

The GBP/USD could be starting a new bearish wave 1-2 (green) but this scenario is invalidated if price

breaks above the 100% Fib.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke the resistance (dotted orange) of contracting triangle (orange/green) during

Friday’s trading. The bullish break could be part of larger correction in the downtrend (red line) or

the start of a reversal (break above red). For the moment the substantial bullish momentum is

indicating most likely a wave 3 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be building an extension within wave 3 (blue) with more momentum and

waves 3. The current wave 3 (light blue) could be near completion, which is when a wave 4 and 5

(light blue) is expected within wave 3 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD face bounce and break spots in fragile triangles

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD stopped at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave D (green) vs B. Any bearish break below that Fib level could see price extend the bearish breakout below support (dotted green) towards the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is building a small contracting triangle chart pattern (orange/green). A break below the support line (green) could extend wave A (blue) to a lower spot. A break above the resistance line (orange) could start a wave C (green) correction within wave B (blue) with resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) after a strong bearish bounce at resistance (red) and 78.6% Fibonacci. A wave 3 (pink) needs to see price break below the previous bottom (horizontal green). A bounce at that bottom (horizontal green) would indicate a wave change and become a triangle.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building a small contracting triangle chart pattern (orange/green). A break below the support line (green) could extend wave 1 (green) to a lower spot. A break above the resistance line (orange) could start a wave C (blue) correction within wave 2 (green) with resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke the resistance (dotted orange) of contracting triangle (orange/green) but still faces strong resistance (red) at the top of the daily downtrend channel. A bullish break above it could start a larger bullish reversal (wave 1 purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY immediately completed wave 3 (blue) as indicated in yesterday’s analysis and retraced back to the 23.6-38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) where a bullish bounce took place. The breakout could head towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 3 vs 1.

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[Admiral Markets]

Forex market presents corrective waves during trading week

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD seems to be respecting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave D (green) vs B. A bearish break below that Fib level could see price extend the bearish breakout below support (dotted green) towards the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke the small contracting triangle chart pattern (orange/green) and posted a lower low. A break above the resistance line (orange) could start a wave B (blue) correction with resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is expected to be in a wave 3 (pink) at the moment, which is confirmed when price breaks below the bottom (horizontal green). A bounce at that bottom (horizontal green) would indicate a wave change such as a larger triangle formation. A break of the resistance (red) would indicate a larger ABC correction within wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building a small bear flag chart pattern (orange/green). A break below the support line (green) could extend wave 1 (green) to a lower spot. A break above the resistance line (orange) could start a wave C (blue) correction within wave 2 (green) with resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is approaching strong resistance (red) at the top of the daily downtrend channel, which could either cause a larger retracement for a bull flag chart pattern. A bullish break above it could start a larger bullish reversal (wave 1 purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY bullish bounce at wave 4 (blue) and breakout above resistance (dotted red) has lead to a rally which is approaching the Fibonacci levels of wave 5 (blue) vs 1+3. Price could extend to higher Fibonacci levels above the 61.8% or retrace for a wave 4 (brown).

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY bullish momentum approaches resistance at daily channel

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bearish price action is slowing down around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave D (green) vs B. A bearish break below that Fib level could see price extend the bearish breakout below support (dotted green) towards the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels. A bullish bounce at the Fib could see price retest resistance (red).

1 hour

The EUR/USD break above the resistance line (orange) could start a wave B (blue) correction with resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A. A break below support (green) could see the start of bullish momentum.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is in a potential wave 3 (pink), which is confirmed when price breaks below the bottom (horizontal green). A bullish bounce at that bottom (horizontal green) would indicate a wave change such as a larger triangle formation. A break of the resistance (red) would indicate a larger ABC correction within wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the small bear flag chart pattern (dotted orange/green), which is indicating the start of a wave C (blue) correction within wave 2 (green) with resistance at the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 and C vs A.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is approaching strong resistance (red) at the top of the daily downtrend channel, which could either cause a larger retracement or a sideways pattern like a bull flag chart pattern. A bullish break above it could start a larger bullish reversal (wave 1 purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is making a mild correction, which could indicate the completion of wave 5 (blue) within wave 3 (brown). A larger correction could price head back to and bounce at the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 4 (brown) vs 3.

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[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD breaks above daily resistance in bullish ABC zigzag

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave D (green) vs B. The current wave count is expecting price to show a bearish bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X (purple) for one more bearish swing towards lower Fib levels of wave D vs B. A break above the trend lines (red/orange) would invalidate this scenario.

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke above the resistance line (dotted orange) with strong momentum (wave 3 green) which could indicate a bullish push towards above the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave X vs W.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above an important resistance (red) trend line from the daily chart. The break leads to a change of wave count as indicated yesterday and now price is in a larger ABC correction (pink) within wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD showed strong bullish momentum yesterday which has been labelled as a wave 3 (purple). An ABC correction (grey) within wave 4 (purple) could take price back to the Fibonacci retracement levels but a break below the 61.8% invalidates the wave count. A break above the resistance (orange) could indicate a continuation of wave 5 (purple) within the uptrend channel (green/red lines).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has reached a strong resistance trend line (red) at the top of the daily downtrend channel, which could either cause a larger retracement or a sideways pattern like a bull flag chart pattern. Wave 1 (purple) could have been completed at the most recent high or could see a continuation higher if the trend line is broken.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is making a mild correction, which could indicate the completion of wave 3 (dark blue). A larger correction could price head back to and bounce at the Fibonacci retracement levels of wave 4 (blue) vs 3.

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[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY completes 5 bullish waves at top of bear channel

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD respected the 50% Fibonacci level of wave X (purple). Price could retrace to a higher Fib level such as the 61.8% or 78.6% Fib of wave X vs W before completing wave Y (purple) at wave D (green). The current wave count is expecting price to show a bearish bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X (purple) for one more bearish swing towards lower Fib levels of wave D vs B. A break above the trend line (red) would invalidate this scenario.

1 hour

The other scenario is that the EUR/USD wave X (purple) has already been completed and a bearish ABC (blue) zigzag has started. A confirmation of a bearish turn at wave B (blue) could occur via a candle stick pattern or via a bearish breakout below support (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above an important resistance (red) trend line from the daily chart. The break indicates a larger ABC correction (pink) within wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD indeed completed an ABC correction (grey) within wave 4 (purple) after which a wave 5 (purple) completed wave 3 (blue). At the moment a wave 4 (purple) correction is expected at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a series of 5 waves (blue) at a strong resistance trend line (red) of the daily downtrend channel. Wave 1 (purple) could have been completed at the most recent high and an ABC (blue) retracement within wave 2 (purple) seems to be the most likely scenario.

1 hour

The USD/JPY break of support (green) could confirm the retracement within wave 2 (purple). A break above resistance trend lines (red/orange) could extend wave 1 (purple) to a higher high.

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