Dax 30; Ftse 100; SP 500 - Market View

Asian markets closed in different directions. In Tokyo, the Nikkei reached the minimum of the last two weeks, since the appreciation of the Yen decreased investor interest. It was announced today that exports in Japan fell in July at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis, due to the appreciation of the yen and the weakness of external economies.
 
Last Friday, the US stock market ended lower, with investors showing some concern regarding the Fed decision at the next meeting. Still, the Nasdaq managed to end the eighth consecutive week of gains since April 2010. The session was marked by the traditional weak liquidity and the absence of significant catalysts or business nature, as well as macroeconomic, so there has been another day without any sign to help investors to infer about the actions of the Central Bank. The minutes of the last meeting of the Fed revealed on Wednesday, did not help much in this regard. Moreover, in recent days, investors have also weighed their decisions based on the words of some members of this body as well as the crude oil price behavior. On Thursday, the President of the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, John Williams, joined the group of members that supports a rise in interest rates in the coming months, stating that if the Fed wait too long, such an attitude can entail costs for the economy. In this context, attention is turning to the statements of Janet Yellen in Jackson Hole Conference scheduled for August 26, Friday, the day will be published important data for the country’s economy, such as GDP and the confidence index of consumers.
 
The appreciation of the Japanese currency detracted from the performance of the leading exporting companies, specially automakers (like Honda and Mazda). The liquidity was lower, with investors waiting for the conference in Jackson Hole.
 
The banking sector may now be in focus after news about a private study in the UK, which revealed that British banks may lose a large number of domestic and European customers following the outcome of the referendum held last June and which resulted in the Brexit. The oil sector may be conditioned by the oil price drop after the unexpected increase in inventories in the US.
 
The market has been hovering a sense of expectation for the conference in Jackson Hole (Friday), keeping investores vigilant and more cautious, given the high degree of uncertainty as to when will happen the next change in interest rates of Fedfunds. It will therefore be important to monitor the intervention of Jannet Yellen in this event on monetary policy, for any more accurate signal relating the course of monetary policy in the short term.
 
Oil prices have recovered, even after the Minister of Saudi Energy have calmed down expectations of a strong market intervention by major producers in the talks that will take place next month.
 
Unlike what happened in recent years, August has been characterized by a very low volatility. In the last two weeks, the S & P ranged between 2168 and 2193. From a technical point of view, a break of the top of this range would signal the resumption of the upward movement of the markets. If the S & P declines below 2168 then increases the probability of a short term correction. Although it’s not possible to predict if the next move, some technical indicators give a higher probability for the support (2168) to be broken.
 
Yesterday's rise was also fueled by the shortage of liquidity. Most fund managers is still on vacation, and only returned next Tuesday after the Labor Day.
 
One factor that may affect the S & P’s behavior is the evolution of the ten-year treasury yields of US government bonds. Since mid-July, the yields to 10 years have fluctuated between 1.45% and 1.63%. If increases the prospects of a rise in interest rates by the Fed is not to exclude that yields exceed the 1.63%. This level is important from a technical point of view because if surpassed may signal an upward movement in yields. In this scenario, the impact on the stock market would be negative.
 
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