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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee​

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Tuesday, October 18th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.2246 (0.5%)
Session range: Open 1.2184 High 1.2274 Low 1.2176
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: High
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2106 R. 1.2274
Main drivers: UK CPI, US CPI
Overview: The greenback is losing its bullish momentum across the board as market is still digesting yesterday’s tepid US macroeconomic data allowing the pair to build some recovery during Asia. Moreover, seems that fears of a ‘hard Brexit’ are slowly cooling-off thereby bringing relief to UK’s currency. Today, center stage will take UK consumer price index which expectedly will show that cost of living ticked higher.

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Thursday, October 20th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1,0976 (0,0%)
Session range: Open 1.0973 High 1.0981 Low 1.0951
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: High
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0928 R. 1.1026
Main drivers: ECB Interest Rate Decision, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, ECB Press Conference, US Existing Home Sales, EU Leaders Summit
Overview: Today the US dollar extends its bullish mood following H.Clinton’s win on the third and final presidential election debate. However, growing caution across the market ahead of crucial ECB Interest Rate Decision is limiting pair’s movement range. It is widely expected that ECB wont surprise the market with its decision today but the pair could replicate the tone of the statement that will be digested later across the market.


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Friday, October 21st

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.0882 (-0.4%)
Session range: Open 1.0929 High 1.0931 Low 1.0879
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: High
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0837 R. 1.1085
Main drivers: EU Leaders Summit, FOMC Member D.Tarullo Speech
Overview: The common currency remains well offered against its American counterpart refreshing its 7-month lows below the level of 1.0900 mainly driven by yesterday’s ECB Governor M.Draghi dovish comments. Yesterday on ECB Press Conference Draghi stated that bank did not discuss monetary policy easing program. Moreover, the ECB President has noted that the question about ending of the monetary policy easing program also has not been discussed so bank will keep it stay-and-see mode to determine further direction despite numerous talks regarding this question. In the day ahead, markets will continue to digest the latest developments around ECB while Europe remains deadly quite.

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Monday, October 24th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1,0892 (0,1%)
Session range: Open 1.0883 High 1.0894 Low 1.0859
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: High
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0819 R. 1.0961
Main drivers: FOMC Member W.Dudley’s Speech, FOMC Member J.Bullard’s Speech
Overview: The euro is trimming losses this morning as dollar’s upward rally is losing its pace. Adding to that, upbeat preliminary German Manufacturing PMI report seen in early Europe is also supporting common currency. Next on tap remains Eurozone preliminary PMI’s with FOMC member speeches that will be able to provide the pair with further direction during this Monday.

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Tuesday, October 25th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.0872 (-0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.0881 High 1.0887 Low 1.0866
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: High
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0840 R. 1.0920
Main drivers: US CB Consumer Confidence, ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech
Overview: Currently the EUR/USD pair remains flat trading in 20 pips narrow range in its comfort zone around 1.0880 spot. Yesterday the pair failed to break through the level of 1.0900 as several Feadspeaks provided market with fresh cues of Fed rate-hike before the end of the year thereby supporting US currency. However, yesterday’s auspicious bloc of PMIs is still supporting common currency thereby preventing pair’s sharp fall. Today center stage will take ECB Chief M.Draghi with his lecture about stability, equity, and monetary policy in Berlin during NA session.


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Wednesday, October 26th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.0932 (0.4%)
Session range: Open 1.0888 High 1.0927 Low 1.0874
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: High
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0827 R. 1.0965
Main drivers: US New Home Sales
Overview: The euro/dollar cross has recovered from overnight lows and refreshed its daily tops above the level of 1.0900 despite upbeat sentiment around US currency. Seems that dollar is back on the horse showing minor recovery against its major peers on Wednesday. However, euro’s funding currency status is supporting the pair last hours as shrinking risk appetite is boosting safe-haven assets. Today amid data-light calendar only US New Home Sales would be able to set up short distance direction for the pair.


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Thursday, October 27th

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.2208 (-0.3%)
Session range: Open 1.2246 High 1.2250 Low 1.2200
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2123 R. 1.2309
Main drivers: UK GBP, US Core Durable Goods Orders, US Pending Home Sales
Overview: The GBP plays defensively this week but nevertheless has recovered from its multi-week lows marked near 1.2080 level. Currently the pound is running in a quiet mode keeping its narrow range of 20 pips as upcoming UK preliminary GDP report expected in early Europe brings cautious sentiment across the market. After UK data traders will shift their focus to the US data bloc scheduled for NA session that also will be able to provide the pair with short term impetus.

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Friday, October 28th

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.0910 (0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.0896 High 1.0926 Low 1.0893
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bullish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0846 R. 1.0966
Main drivers: US prelim. GDP
Overview: The euro recovers smile against its American peer this morning and finally breaks above the level of 1.0900. One of the reasons of pair’s positive mood remains small dollar’s correction after yesterday growth. Today center stage for the major currency pair will take flash US GDP report that also will bring fresh insight on Fed meeting results scheduled for December. But Fed’s decision could move both ways as US election results, domestic macro data and world events could still influence US economy.

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Monday, October 31st

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.2174 (-0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.2178 High 1.2216 Low 1.2171
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2072, R. 1.2268
Main drivers: US Core PCE Price Index, US Personal Spending
Overview: The pound is still weak at the start of this week unable to break through resistance placed at 1.2200 level and now is sending the pair back to its daily lows near 1.2180 level. Moreover, the latest announcement of BoE Chief M.Carney about his future as governor of the Bank of England has negatively influenced the pound, but the last word of M.Carney’s decision will be spoken on Thursday. Additionally, the sterling will remain pressured today as potential “hard-Brexit” scenario coupled with broadly based dollar’s strength fueled by risen expectations of Fed rate-hike by the end of this year are still majorly boosting pair’s bears.

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Tuesday, November 1st

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.0994 (0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.0980 High 1.0996 Low 1.0957
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0913 R. 1.1023
Main drivers: UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Overview: The pair enters Europe in positive note. However, the euro’s attempts to break through key resistance level remain capped as ongoing speculations of H.Clinton’s win in presidential elections are strongly supporting US dollar. Moreover, according to the latest statistics the probability of this year Fed rate-hike has ticked up to 72.5% that also provides the dollar with significant support lately. Nothing much is scheduled in EU data calendar, so the major will stay at the mercy of sentiments around US dollar until ISM Manufacturing PMI will grab traders’ attention in NA session.

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