Elliott Wave Analysis by Admiral Markets

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Bearish Momentum after Failing to Break Resistance

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD was unable to break below the critical support level (blue) and instead bounced strongly to the upside. The bounce indicates that an expansion within wave 2 (brown) is most likely.

1 hour

The EUR/USD break above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) changed the wave count to the current form because a larger bullish correction became more likely. The EUR/USD could expand the correction (wave W blue) unless price breaks below the main support (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted red) and is building a larger retracement within a wave 4 (blue) correction. A wave 4 (blue) typically retraces back to the 23.6-38.2-50% Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke above resistance (dotted red) and extended the ABC (grey) within wave Y (orange). Price is in a wave 4 (dark red) unless a break out occurs below the 61.88% Fibonacci level. A break above the resistance (red) could see price complete a wave 5 (dark red).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) but did not manage to break above the previous top (red). The bearish turn around could indicate a completion of wave 5 (orange) and also wave 3 (purple) and the start of a wave 4 (purple) correction.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely building a bearish 5 wave pattern within wave A (blue) of wave 4 (purple).

Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Rallies 200 pips and Approaches 50% Fibonacci of Wave-4

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD expanded the wave 4 (blue) correction via a WXY (orange) and has now arrived at potential resistance spots at the Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The GBP/USD however could build one more higher high if price completes a wave 4 (brown) correction on the lower 1 hour time frame. A break below the 61.8% Fib invalidates the wave 4 (brown) and makes it more likely that the zigzag (grey) was completed at the recent top.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a consolidation zone below the broken bottoms from the weekly chart (dotted green). The correction has been labelled as a wave 2 (brown), which would be invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed an ABC (green) zigzag and then expanded the correction as expected yesterday with a WXY (blue). Whether the EUR/USD has completed the correction or whether it will expand it will depend on the direction of the breakout. A bullish break above resistance (red) could see price move towards Fib levels. A bearish break below support (green) could see price move towards the next support (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a wave A (blue) of a larger ABC correction within the wave 4 (purple) correction. The 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 are potentially support levels for a wave 4.

1 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a bearish 5 wave pattern within wave A (blue) of wave 4 (purple). Price could build a new ABC (brown) within wave B (blue) unless price breaks below support (green).

Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates.

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Bearish Momentum towards 1.22 Break or Bounce Spot

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke the support trend line (dotted green) and thereby completed a 3 wave WXY (orange) correction within wave 4 (blue). A break of the bottom (blue line) could spark the continuation of the downtrend (waves 5) and a retest of the bigger bottoms from 2016 (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is displaying strong bearish momentum which is most likely a wave 3 (orange). Within that wave 3, price is most likely building 5 extended waves (grey/brown) but a break of the bottom (blue) remains critical. If the bottom does break, a mild wave 4 correction (dark red) would indicate that another bearish push is around the corner to complete wave 3 (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a sideways corrective zone, which is occurring around the broken bottoms from the weekly chart (dotted green). The correction has been labelled as a wave 2 (brown), which would be invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could be showing a bearish turn at the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. A break below the support (green) could initiate a wave 3 (purple) and retest of support (blue). A break above resistance (red) could indicate that price will correct to a higher Fib level of wave 2 (brown).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a larger ABC (blue) correction within wave 4 (purple), unless price manages to break above the previous top (dark red line). In that case the ABC (blue) zigzag is invalidated and an uptrend continuation is taking place.

1 hour

The USD/JPY indeed made a bullish turn at 115, broke above the resistance line (dotted red), and price is now testing the Fibonacci levels of wave B (blue) and wave C (brown).

Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates.

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Confirm Divergence in Breakout Direction

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a sideways corrective zone, which is indicated by the various trend lines (red/blue and orange/green). The correction could be part of a wave 2 (brown) correction, which is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is showing bullish momentum after failing to break support (green). A break above the resistance levels (red/orange) could see a continuation of the momentum (blue arrows) towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C vs A.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD also broke the previous bottom (dotted blue) after completing wave 4 (blue) and breaking below the support trend line (dotted green). Price has now established a new lower low within wave 5 (blue) and price will most likely test the previous bottom (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is showing a corrective chart pattern with price moving sideways, which is typical for a wave 4 (brown). Moreover, there was strong bearish momentum prior to the correction, which has been marked as a wave 3 (brown). The wave 4 (brown) is invalidated if price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 vs 3. Price could continue with the downtrend (red arrows) if price manages to break below the support trend line (green) with a strong breakout candle.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY indeed built a larger ABC (blue) correction within wave 4 (purple) as expected in the previous wave analysis. The question is how far the wave C (blue) will correct before completing wave 4 (purple) and there are multiple potential answers. Price could build a triangle formation, which would indicate a lack of a break below wave A (blue) support, or price could bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3.

1 hour

The USD/JPY needs to break above or below the trend lines before a breakout (arrows) is possible. A break below support (blue) could see price test the Fib levels nearby.

Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

 

[Admiral Markets]

Forex Chart Patterns Identify Bounce and Break Zones

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is in an ABC (blue) correction within wave 4 (purple). The wave C (blue) and wave 4 (purple) will either be completed at lower Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 or once price breaks above the resistance trend line (red).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be in a wave 4 (brown) unless price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level which makes it more likely that a wave 5 (brown) was completed at the previous bottom.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD continues to respect the support (green) and resistance (orange) levels as the currency pair remains in the consolidation zone. The wave 2 (brown) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1. Price could make a bearish turn at the 61.8% or 78.6% Fib if price breaks above resistance (orange/red). A break below support (green) could see price challenge the next support trend lines.

1 hour

The EUR/USD needs to break below the support trend lines (green/blue) before the completion of wave C (blue), Y (purple) and 2 (brown) can be confirmed. Otherwise the bearish price action could be part of a retracement with potentially more upside remaining to test the Fib levels of wave 2. At the moment price is building a corrective bearish channel (brown/blue lines).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD retraced back to the broken support level (dotted green) which could be a resistance spot. Price needs to break below the previous low (blue line) before it can test the previous bottom (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is still showing a corrective chart pattern which is typical for a wave 4 (brown). The current wave 4 (brown) is invalidated if price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 vs 3. Price could continue with the downtrend (red arrows) if price manages to break below the support trend lines (green) with a strong breakout candle.

Follow@ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

 

[Admiral Markets]

US Dollar Buids Bearish Zigzag Pattern

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bounced near the support trend line (blue) connecting the previous bottoms. Price is now retesting again resistance trend lines (orange/red). Price could make a bearish turn at the 61.8% or 78.6% Fib if price breaks above resistance (orange/red). The wave 2 (brown) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is most likely in a wave 4 (orange) correction and a break above the trend line (orange) could indicate a potential for price to move towards the Fibonacci targets. This could be part of a larger ABC zigzag (green).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bounced strongly at the 61.8% Fibonacci target of wave 5 vs 1+3 and at the support trend lines (both green). The impulsive price action could be a first indication that the downtrend is over but a break above resistance (red) is needed to confirm it.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is however on the lower 1 hour time frame still showing a potential for more downtrend. The invalidation level of the wave 4 (orange) occurs if price manages to break above the 78.6% Fib level.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke the support level (dotted blue) and is expanding the ABC (blue) correction within wave 4 (purple). The 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple) are potential bouncing spots.

1 hour

The USD/JPY failed to break resistance (red) and completed an ABC zigzag (orange) within wave 4 (brown). The current bearish price action is probably part of a wave 5 (brown).

Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

 

[Admiral Markets]

USD/JPY Builds ABC Correction Towards 23.6% Fibonacci

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has built an ABC (blue) correction towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (purple). The 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple) are potential bouncing spots for a continuation of the larger uptrend on the daily chart.

1 hour

The USD/JPY bounced at the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A breakout above the resistance trend line (red) is needed before an uptrend continuation becomes more likely.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and turned at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This could complete the wave 2 (brown) correction, although price could test the higher 78.6% Fib as well. The wave 2 (brown) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed the ABC zigzag (green) pattern as expected. Whether the bullish waves Y correction are finished depends on the breakout direction below the support (blue/green) or above the 61.8% Fib.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD downtrend channel stays intact after price showed a bearish bounce at the resistance trend line (red).

1 hour

The GBP/USD completed an ABC zigzag (grey) within wave 4 (orange) at a deep 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below support (green) could see price move towards the Fibonacci targets.

Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Bearish Drop Reaches Psychological 1.20 Barrier

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD downtrend continues and is now testing the previous low on the daily chart of the year 2016, which dates back to October. A break below the support levels (blue/green) and psychological round level of 1,20 could see price test the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The GBP/USD bounced at the resistance trend lines (orange/red) and is showing strong bearish momentum which has been labelled as a wave 3 (brown). Price could now retrace within a wave 4 (brown). A break above the 50% Fib of wave 4 vs 3 would invalidate it.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is building a retracement within a wave 2 (brown) correction. Price could test the higher 78.6% Fib as well, but the wave 2 (brown) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is moving sideways in a choppy, corrective pattern, which is why the price action has been labelled as a wave B (green). A break above resistance (red/orange) could see price test the 78.6% Fib.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY retraced back with an ABC (blue) correction towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (purple). Both the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple) are likely bouncing spots. A break above the resistance trend lines (orange/red) could confirm a continuation of the larger uptrend.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could have completed a 5 wave (brown) leading diagonal for the first bullish wave (blue). This wave structure would become invalidated if price breaks below the 100% level of wave 2 (blue).

Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

 

[Admiral Markets]

EUR/USD Prepared for Bullish ABC Zigzag Pattern

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD bounced at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave B vs A and it seems to be completing an ABC (green) zigzag within a wave 2 correction (brown). The wave 2 (brown) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke above the resistance (dotted orange) of the choppy, corrective pattern and price could be heading towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C (green). A bull flag chart pattern should appear once the wave 3 (orange) has finished.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD downtrend is testing the low of the year 2016. A break below the support levels (blue/green) and psychological round level of 1,20 could see price test the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The GBP/USD bounced at the support trend lines (blue/green) and is now retracing within a wave 4 (brown). A break above the 50% Fib of wave 4 vs 3 would invalidate the wave 4 (brown).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY temporarily stopped the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (purple) but will probably retrace to the deeper 38.2% Fibonacci level.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is most likely building an ABC zigzag (brown) pattern. A break below support (green) could see price fall towards the Fib targets of wave C vs A.

Follow@ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

 

[Admiral Markets]

GBP/USD Bounces 400 Pips from 1.20 Support Zone

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD was unable to break the major support level (green) from 2016 and the 1.20 round level support. During the speech of British Prime Minister May regarding the Brexit out of the EU, the GBP/USD rallied strong and bounced +/- 400 pips. Price broke above the resistance (dotted red) of the downtrend channel. The bullish price action could complete the entire downtrend potentially (which would make the waves 5 a truncated wave 5 by not breaking the bottom). But for the moment, the current price action is still considered a bullish correction and the waves 5 (green/light blue/purple) have been left open.

1 hour

The GBP/USD strong momentum could hint at a larger ABC zigzag (blue) but the price spike itself could be seen as a zigzag too. It will be important to see what kind of patterns are built later today, for instance whether bearish momentum is shown or whether price builds a triangle.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is moving higher within the anticipated bullish ABC (green) zigzag. The next major Fibonacci level is the 78.6% Fib of wave 2 (brown), which is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

1 hour

The EUR/USD broke above another resistance trend line (dotted red) and price is heading towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C (green). The momentum is most likely a wave 3 (orange) and the current correction could be a shallow wave 4 (orange) correction, which typically stops and turns at a 23.6% or 38.2% Fib.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is in a mild downtrend channel (red/green), which is retracing back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke below support (dotted green) and is most likely building an ABC zigzag (brown) pattern. The current wave 4 (orange) is invalidated if price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates