Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017

The Prime Minister of UK, Theresa May laid out few ground rules yesterday regarding the possible flow of the Brexit process. Global risks were also expected to lessen and in whatever time it might occur, it will likely weigh on the dollar.

The greenbacks were seen to be on its weaker stance prior this event that will hit the currency much harder. This will caused for the USD/CAD to test 1.3000 over and over, there is also a sudden solid bounce upwards.

The USD continued to suffer from the drawbacks due to the risky environment from Trump’s administration which continue to confuse traders and investors because of its vague plans.

Moreover, the expected thrice rate increase of the Fed will likely be supported by the dollar with the medium and long term, however the near-term risk that surround the new US government causes the dollar to soften.

Another test of lows is assumed to occur in case the Canadian data will present an optimistic result. Since the economic data from the region is relatively strong and identify whether this upbeat is from the BOC statement about rate policy or from the media conference of the BOC Governor.

Furthermore, the BOC is scheduled to hold its rate for today, in case the statement came in hawkish, the 1.3000 level are needed to test again.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 18. 2017

The JPY increased significantly in value against the USD after the majority of investors fled the USD after Donald Trump expressed his concerns that the US dollar might be becoming too strong for the US economy to handle. The US 10-year Treasury Yields plummeted to 2.307% during the early hours of yesterday’s trading session, possibly its lowest intraday levels since November 2016. This has then lended support for the bears of the USD/JPY pair after the currency pair traded at the lower regions of 112.67 points before making a slight recovery. However, there came a slew of negative US data, such as the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which dropped to 6.5% from its previous reading of 9.0%. This reading is indicative of slower business growth in the region for this month. Since the USD/JPY was able to extend over 114.00 points, the currency pair is more than ready to extend sideways. The pair’s 4-hour chart shows that its momentum indicator retains its bearish stance and is still within the negative side of the chart, while RSI indicators for the currency pair are pointing to the downside. The 100 SMA for the USD/JPY pair has also lowered significantly.

Support levels for the USD/JPY are expected to manifest at the 112.65 points, while resistance levels could possibly appear once the pair hits 113.35 points.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017

The GBP/USD pair exhibited heightened volatility during the previous trading session as the dollar lost strength and the sterling pound regained much of its footing in the market. Theresa May’s speech yesterday helped in clearing up some of the murkier parts of the Brexit process, and this has helped in placating various investors and has minimized concerns surrounding the Brexit process, thereby increasing the value of the sterling pound. This has then prompted investors to pull out their funds from the USD, thereby causing the dollar to drop in value.

Theresa May has highlighted in her speech yesterday that the UK will indeed be going for a hard Brexit and will be eliminating any kind of access from the eurozone. However, the PM has reiterated that the UK government will be negotiating with eurozone leaders in order to have a different kind of trade relations with the European bloc. Since this has eliminated confusions surrounding Brexit matters, thereby increasing the pair’s volatility levels. The GBP/USD pair initially dipped to 1.2015 points prior to Theresa May’s speech but quickly climbed up to a daily high of 1.2414 points.

However, there are still a handful of concerns surrounding the Brexit process, and the expected invocation of Article 50 is also seen as a possibly risk for the stance of the currency pair as well as the UK economy. As such, these are expected to continuously pressure the GBP in the next few days.

For today’s session, UK will be releasing its claimant count change data as well as its average earnings data, while US will be releasing its CPI data later today. It remains to be seen whether these data sets would be continuing the string of good economic data during the past few days. If the UK data comes out as positive, then this push the pair upwards to 1.2500 points, although this might not be enough to actually push the currency pair beyond this particular barrier.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2017
The EUR received a much-needed boost from yesterday’s trading events, wherein the USD plummeted and weakened while the sterling pound regained its previous losses across the board. This has then caused the EUR/USD pair to break through the 1.0600 barrier after quite a time and even went up as high as 1.0700 points, where it traded momentarily before settling just below 1.0700 points.
In spite of the fact that Theresa May has indeed announced that the UK is headed for a hard Brexit process, the concerns surrounding this particular occurrence have somewhat diminished, prompting investors to pull out from the USD and onto high-risk areas such as the stock market. The US dollar has since then weakened, and the clarity of the Brexit process has helped in pushing the euro higher. Although the hard Brexit would most probably have an adverse effect on eurozone trades, the renewed clarity of the process has helped placate investors and has created upward support for the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is now seen to possibly reach the 1.0850 trading region.
There are no major economic readings set to be released today from the eurozone, but the US will be releasing its Core CPI and CPI data during the New York session, and these will be closely monitored by investors since a string of good economic data could increase the chances of a Fed rate hike in the near future.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 19, 2017

The USD/CAD pair surged on Wednesday as it broke the downtrend on the chart. It started from the 1.3598 level forming until 1.3018 level completing the current downtrend. The support level is found at 1.3135 and if a clear break is seen, the price could further go down towards the 1.2800 mark. Alternatively, if the price breaks higher than the current uptrend line, the price could move up towards the next target at 1.3500 level in the next days to come.


A rebound in the price trend could being the sellers back soon and dominate the market as the prices are about to go higher influenced by the oil market. However, if the oil prices become unstable then the prices could further go up and the break lower than the 1.30 level gives a negative sign to the market.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/ CAD Technical Analysis: January 23, 2017

The USD/CAD pair traded with a bullish tone on Friday. The uptrend reached the 1.3330 level in the beginning of the trading session. Later that day, the buyers were able to surpass the level as it persists to move higher in the mid-European trading session. Yet, it was not able to reach the 1.3400 level as the price withdraw back to 1.3330 losing its momentum during the New York trading session.

The Resistance level is seen at 1.3400 while the support level comes in at 1.3330 level. The Moving Averages broke in the upper channel and the price managed to linger higher for the day as the 20-EMA moves upward. On the other hand, the 100-EMA is moving lower while the 200-EMA moves in a neutral chart. Overall, the MACD histogram implies the buyers leading the market. Moving with it, the RSI was set within the overvalued readings where a new high is still possible.

Both the Retail sales and Consumer Price Index Reports did not meet the expectations of investors. Nevertheless, this has minimal effect to the currency but it is still under pressure despite the strong greenback.

The pair maintained its upward direction from 1.3018 level following the consolidation state of the uptrend at 1.3387 level. A close higher than the 1.3330 level may set it in motion to move towards 1.3400 level and if the pair strongly sets at 1.3400, this indicates the continues uptrend. However, if the market fails to break higher than the 1.3400 level, this would mean a negative outlook to the market.

Overall, the price trend remains bullish ranging from 1.3240 level to 1.3387 level until the next days to come but if the sellers dominate the market, this could move the price towards the 1.3190 mark instead. If the market is able to maintain the current support level at 1.3240 level, the market could anticipate a continuous uptrend with the next target at 1.3500 level.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2017

The USD/CAD pair moves in a positive outlook going upward on Friday’s trading session. The market broker the price within the upper channel and this may continue towards the 1.35 level or even higher. This would even move the price higher when the oil market rolls over should given enough time. There are some reversals in price trend which could become buying opportunities supported by candle patterns formed and at the same time indicates a bullish tone. On the other hand, the current environment may not be good for selling the pair.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 23, 2017

The EUR/USD pair moved in a bullish tone and stained within the close-term ascending channel on Friday’s trading session. It attained its boundary level over the whole night and rebounded during the early European trades. By the middle of European trading session, the price of spot trading ranges between 1.0700 level and 1.0650 level.

The Resistance level comes in at 1.0700 level while the support level sited at 1.0650 level. Its Moving Averages surpassed its levels for both 50-EMA and 100-EMA moving in a downward direction while the test of 200-EMA moves upward. Its MACD declines implying the weakening of buyers. On the other hand, the RSI entered the neutral territory indicating chances or the price to go lower.

The pair broke higher than the 1.0719 resistance maintaining the uptrend from 1.0340 level. This is anticipated to further go up towards the next target at 1.0800 level. Conversely, a break lower than the 1.0650 level could mean another decline. Hence, if the price closes lower than 1.0600 handle, this could go down towards the 1.0550 mark. The support level is aligned in the upward trend line and a clear break of the price would finish the uptrend. When the current price level is maintained, there is a chance to reach another new high at 1.0720 level but because of the a string lower limit in the upper channel, this could hamper the advancement of the pair.

Euro was not affected by the positive results of Germany Producer Price Index (PPI) as the attention of the market directed on Friday, when Donald Trump was inaugurated as the president of the United States expecting directed hints from the new administration. On the other hand, the traders also wait for the release of Manufacturing PMI of Germany and speech of Draghi on Monday.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2017

The GBP/USD maintain a stronger stance in trading as the dollar softened. Meanwhile, the pair seems ready to gain further throughout the day. Even though the pound declined below 1.2000 due to concerns about the Brexit movement, it remained steady for the previous week. Moreover, British PM May presented some guidelines and asserted that the nation is set for the hard Brexit, this confirmation lessened the risks and disorientation regarding the referendum which also helped the GBP to edged higher and traded strongly for this morning.

The United Kingdom is currently facing a crucial week as the Supreme Court of the country is expected to make an approved decision in relation to the European membership. Considering the fact that the court will require the government to obtain an approval from the Parliament appealing for Article 50 could initiate the process of withdrawing the UK from the EU. In case it was certified, we expect some volatility against the sterling. Nevertheless, there is a possible delay due to some criticism and arguments that are more likely to arise.

The sequential events with regards to the ruling and dollar weakening are able to lead the Cable towards 1.2500 by which the pair are going to aim for the marks 1.2700-2800.

As for this day, there’s no major news from the US and UK thus the greens instability presumably would dominate for the GBPUSD.

 

[Luis ForexMart]

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2017

The EUR/USD increased for the past few days following the sluggish stance of the greenbacks. The single European dollar benefited from the position of the greens as it climbs to 1.0700 and further extended its gains. The USD weakened with no definite reason as others deemed for the general correction while some claimed it’s all because of the skepticism for Trump’s administration. However, the American currency is clearly at a disadvantage point against the euro.

The EUR is relatively buoyant for the previous week, much more when its U.S peer manifested some strength. The euro continued to bounce back from a limited correction and eventually broke the 1.0700 level, en route 1.0840 region.

There are some issues that the weakness are caused by the speech of Trump coupled with the curtailment for the rest of Obamacare. Moreover, there exist a general risk about the US President’s team and their plans and these uncertainties weighed on the USD.

As the last week of January enters, the economic news is lessened while the upcoming is a beginning for the USD towards an unidentified state which brings higher volatility.

The US and Euroregion do not have major reports to be released for today, what we expect is the continuous fall of the greens.