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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee
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Wednesday, February 22nd

The euro continues to lose a ground vs. its American competitor, spiking the level of 1.05. Seems that US bulls are still pretty confident in the pair with the euro ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes, that could shed some light on prospects of further Fed’s monetary policy tightening measures. Moreover, the euro remains under selling pressure, as political concerns surrounding French elections are gathering pace. Today trading session promises to be pretty volatile as Germany will publish its Ifo Business Climate Index, EU will release final CPI data while the US has prepared data from housing market and FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will take center stage in New York’s afternoon.

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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee
Stay informed of the key economic events
Thursday, February 23rd

Today the EUR/USD pair once again is losing ground, stepping away from its overnight highs, posted in 1.0570 area, in wake of mixed morning data from German economy. However, yesterday the greenback remained unimpressed by eventless FOMC meeting minutes, as most of Fed members had already expressed their opinions regarding further rate-hikes and Fed’s monetary policy by the time of minutes’ release. And once again FOMC members reaffirmed necessity of further tightening, however, noting that it will happen “fairly soon”, while only a few of them expect a hike at upcoming meeting. Additionally, the euro yesterday got positively affected, as one of the French presidential candidates F.Bayrou quitted the race, giving E.Macron extra chances to exceed far-right M.Le Pen. Nothing much is left in data calendar for this Thursday, so the pair will follow USD price actions during this trading session.


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Friday, February 24th

The EUR/USD pair extends its recovery from 1-1/2 month lows, posted just a few pips below 1.05 level on Wednesday, and now is trading at 1.0598 spot. Pair’s strong recovery could be explained by lack of details on Trump’s “phenomenal” tax reforms in recent US Treasury Secretary S.Mnuchin’s speech, that has only intensified sell-off around the dollar. Moreover, recent FOMC Meeting Minutes, classified by market as dovish in response to lack of any indicators on Fed rate hike’s date, continue to fuel broad dollar’s retreat. However, growing concerns over French elections and economic situation in Greece are limiting pair’s further gains. Today the docket of Eurozone will keep silence, while the US economy will publish only New Home Sales report during NY trades, so the pair will continue to follow global markets sentiments until the US release.

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Monday, February 27th

The GBP/USD pair is extending its bearish pattern at the start of a new week, stepping below the level of 1.23. Today the pound once again is losing ground on weekend’s headlines, citing that UK PM T.May and First Minister of Scotland N.Sturgeon are preparing to trigger a new Scotland independence referendum in March, straight away after implementing Article 50. Moreover, recent news from UK has provoked huge wave of risk aversion sentiments across the market, additionally weighing the pound. Today another portion of the US data set will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities later during NA session, while tomorrow’s D.Trump’s speech before Congress will remain eagerly eyed for any clarity over his further fiscal policy.

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Wednesday, March 1st

And another solid comeback was staged by the EUR/USD pair yesterday after crucial speech of the US president before Congress. On Tuesday the dollar caught fresh wave of bids after D.Trump delivered his speech, talking about tax reform, infrastructure spending and higher military spending, however, bringing lack of details on his further plans. The level of expectations was set up very high, but no clues on when or how all changes would be performed were given during US president’s address to Congress. Moreover, March’s rate hike is back on the table, as San Francisco Fed’s president J.Williams has reignited expectations of interest rate increase on Fed’s next meeting, with positive outlook on the US economy and comments, that he doesn’t see any need to postpone rate hike. Currently the pair continues to trade in a red territory, as markets are still digesting latest Trump’s rhetoric. Looking ahead, now attention turns toward macrodata, with Manufacturing PMIs from both sides and German labor market reports.

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Thursday, March 2nd

The EUR/USD pair corrects higher in early Europe after strong decline, seen yesterday. On Wednesday the pair came under bearish pressure after Federal Reserve board member L.Brainard delivered her speech, stressing that the US economy has almost reached its inflation and employment target levels, so Fed interest rate increase at upcoming FOMC meeting will be reasonable. Additionally, speculations around M.Le Pen’s win in French elections are also weighing the common currency as of late, thereby limiting any attempts of the pair to recover its ground. Today only Eurozone flash CPI data will be able to determine next leg of directional move of the pair, as the US event calendar contains only second tier data for this Thursday.

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Friday, March 3rd

The EUR/USD pair eases part or its recovered positions from its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.0495, as euro bulls apparently are out of steam as of late. Yesterday the pair managed to bounce off from its key support level of 1.05 and recover some ground, as strong risk-off sentiments supported the euro somewhat. Additionally, seems that traders are performing some profit taking actions in USD longs especially in light of another wave of Fedspeaks, scheduled on NA session. Now all focus remains on the bloc of local EU service PMIs and final Eurozone’s services PMI report, scheduled on European session, while US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and speech of Fed Chair J.Yellen will take center stage during NY trading session.

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Monday, March 6th

The EUR/USD pair steps higher in early Europe in wake of strong risk-off sentiments across the market after brief pull back during Asia. However, seems that US bulls are fighting hard for the control over the pair, as the market is still digesting recent J.Yellen’s speech, in which she admitted that rate hike at upcoming committee meeting would likely be appropriate, however, noting that the final decision will depend on employment and inflation data. On the other hand, investors react negatively on Swiss CB member’s comments, that M.Le Pen will likely win in presidential race, thereby fueling speculations around French elections. Nothing much is scheduled for this Monday in data calendar from both sides, so the pair will keep following global market’s sentiments to determine its further direction.

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Tuesday, March 7th

The EUR/USD pair is attempting to recover from its overnight lows, located at 1.0573, but still keeps its range below the 1.06 level. Yesterday bid tone around the greenback picked-up pace across the market, fueling a fresh bout of selling interest behind the EUR/USD, as traders have started to price in Fed rate hike on the upcoming committee meeting. However, ongoing risk-off sentiments, fueled by geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korean missiles launch as military exercises with a view to a possible strike against US military bases in Japan, continue to support the common currency. Now immediate focus turns on EU GDP reports, while the US calendar remains data quiet this Tuesday. Besides, growing expectations of March Fed rate hike and developments surrounding French elections will also have a significant impact on the pair during this trading session.

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Wednesday, March 8th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish slide for the third session in a row, refreshing this week’s lows at 1.0551 spot, in wake of broadly higher the US dollar. However, any sharp movements are unlikely today, as cautious sentiments are gathering pace in wake of upcoming ECB Interest Rate Decision, that is due tomorrow. On the other hand, expectedly that the ECB will leave its rate unchanged, while probability of March Fed rate hike has increased up to 90%. Such divergence between Fed’s and ECB’s monetary policies is additionally weighing the pair. Moreover, recent opinion polls in France showed that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen continues to hold leading positions in presidential elections, thereby intensifying concerns around the EUR. Today traders’ attention will be focused on ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, while USD price dynamics and developments surrounding French elections will continue to drive the pair this Wednesday.

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