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Thursday, March 23rd

The EUR/USD pair failed to hold its recovered positions and fell back in early Europe to the region of its overnight lows, marked at 1.0782 spot, amid improved risk-on sentiments. However, pair’s further downside traction appears fragile, as cautious sentiments ahead of the Trumpcare bill vote are getting stronger, thereby providing the euro with some support. If the bill is not be approved by Congress, then it will raise concerns about D.Trump's ability to fulfill his election promises, which will become a key driver in the market in the mid-term projection. On the other hand, if Obamacare does not survive the vote, it will encourage investors to think about prospects of further fiscal reforms, that will return risk-off trend to the market. However, news that E.Macron widens the gap on the French presidential election race, leaving M.Le Pen behind, are positively influencing the euro lately. Looking ahead, today data from US housing market and few Fedspeaks will also be able to attract traders’ attention later in NA session.

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Friday, March 24th

The EUR/USD pair staged solid comeback in early Europe, backed by upbeat flash German Manufacturing PMI report, and now is flirting with 1.08 level. However, further pair’s upside potential remains capped, as US bulls are showing significant activity this Friday. Moreover, cautious sentiments, based on talks over the healthcare bill vote, that was postponed yesterday, are also limiting the pair from any sharp moves, while adding some better sentiments around euro’s funding status. Now focus turns on US Core Durable Goods Orders data, which will be released in NA session, while Trumpcare vote will grab most part of traders’ attention tonight.

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Monday, March 27th

The EUR/USD pair is trading on a firm note, flirting with this year highs at 1.0873 spot, as failure of the Trumpcare bill in the Congress is driving the greenback lower across the board. Today the pair opened with strong bullish gap, following news that the House of Representatives rejected US President Donald Trump’s healthcare bill on Friday, thereby raising market’s concerns about D.Trump’s ability to fulfill his election promises. Additionally, positive German data, released in early Europe are also collaborating with positive sentiments around the common currency. Looking ahead, today the pair will continue to follow global market’s sentiments, as only several speeches by ECB and Fed members are scheduled in today’s docket.

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Tuesday, March 28th

The EUR/USD pair stepped down from its four-month highs, posted yesterday at 1.0906 mark, and now is trading in the region of 1.0860 in response to dollar’s attempts to correct its positions against major rivals and improved demand for higher-yielding assets. Yesterday the main currency pair received strong support from better-then-expected German data, however, the main reason of yesterday’s growth of the euro was US dollar’s weakness. Today amid data quiet calendar from Eurozone the pair will continue to trace sentiments around the US currency, while US CB Consumer Confidence and Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech will also provide some short-term impetus to the pair.

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Wednesday, March 29th

The GBP/USD pair fell for more than two cents from yesterday’s highs and now is consolidating its sharp decline in the region of 1.2400 level, as traders remain unkind to the pound ahead of formal beginning of separation process between UK and Eurozone. Today all market’s attention will be focused on developments, surrounding the Article 50 trigger, as the UK PM T.May has already signed official notice that Britain is leaving EU and has sent it to European Council President D.Tusk, who will hold a press conference in European afternoon, announcing that negotiations on Brexit process will officially start. Beside Brexit process start, today the US economy will release data from housing market, while traders’ reaction on it will be limited in wake of more crucial events of this Wednesday.

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Thursday, March 30th

The GBP/USD pair was deadly quiet in Asia, keeping its range between 1.2430 – 50 marks, as market’s participants are now awaiting for a response of President of the European Council D.Tusk, that is scheduled on tomorrow, to UK PM T.May’s official letter of triggering Article 50, which will be able to provide more information on the two-year long Brexit negotiation process. However, the pair broke out of its consolidation box to downside, as the pound remains under bearish pressure lately in wake of rumors, that EU will penalize UK, which are fueling speculations around hard Brexit. On the other hand, UK remains one of the biggest markets for the EU, so hard Brexit looks unlikely. Nevertheless, further developments around divorce of UK and EU will remain as a key driver for the pound.

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Tuesday, April 4th

The AUD/USD pair broke out of its short overnight consolidation range this morning and fell to its three-week lows, marked at 0.7572 spot, following uneventful RBA Statement. As it was widely expected the RBA kept status quo during its meeting, leaving its refi rate unchanged at 1.50% level. However, the accompanying statement showed, that RBA’s focus remains on Chinese economy, as China is the largest Australia’s trading partner. The RBA members expressed concern over persisting medium-term risks of the Chinese economy, that eventually triggered an intense sell-off in the pair. Looking ahead, nothing much is scheduled in data calendar from both sides this Tuesday, so the USD price dynamics and dominant risk-off moods will continue to lead the pair during this trading session.


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Wednesday, April 5th

The EUR/USD pair stepped away from its 3-week lows, posted yesterday at 1.0636, however, stalled its recovery in mid-Asia in wake of broadly stronger US currency. Seems that EUR bulls got out of steam today, allowing the pair to retreat from its this week highs, marked at 1.0685, in wake of broad demand for the USD. However, recent opinion poll results showed, that far-right candidate M.Le Pen is still behind E.Macron in French election race, thereby lending support to the common currency. Moreover, increasing nervousness ahead of tomorrow’s official meeting between leaders of the two largest economies in the world – US and China, will also provide extra legs of support to the pair. Today all attention turns toward the US ADP jobs report, followed by ISM services PMI and FOMC minutes, which will take center stage during NA session.

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Wednesday, April 5th

The EUR/USD pair stepped away from its 3-week lows, posted yesterday at 1.0636, however, stalled its recovery in mid-Asia in wake of broadly stronger US currency. Seems that EUR bulls got out of steam today, allowing the pair to retreat from its this week highs, marked at 1.0685, in wake of broad demand for the USD. However, recent opinion poll results showed, that far-right candidate M.Le Pen is still behind E.Macron in French election race, thereby lending support to the common currency. Moreover, increasing nervousness ahead of tomorrow’s official meeting between leaders of the two largest economies in the world – US and China, will also provide extra legs of support to the pair. Today all attention turns toward the US ADP jobs report, followed by ISM services PMI and FOMC minutes, which will take center stage during NA session.

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Thursday, April 6th

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The EUR/USD pair came under strong selling pressure in early Europe, as the market aggressively reacted on dovish stance of ECB President M.Draghi, forcing the euro to lose all its yesterday’s gains. The euro received strong bearish impact across the market, as Draghi once again noted that EU inflation growth pace is still slow and reassessment of current monetary policy stance is not warranted at this stage, thereby sending the pair to refresh it 3-week lows at 1.0629 mark. Now all investors’ attention turns toward another key risky event of this Thursday - Chinese President Xi Jinping’s and US President Donald Trump’s meeting, where the main issues concerning future relationships of the countries will be discussed. Looking ahead, only secondary data reports will be released later this day, so traders will continue to digest recent ECB President M.Draghi’s speech.

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