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Thursday, June 22nd

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a bullish bias this Thursday, keeping its positions in the region of 1.1170, as the US dollar has not been in demand lately. However, seems that the pair lost its upside in early Europe amid minor attempts of the buck to recover part of its losses. Even so, pair’s weakness expectedly will not last long, as ongoing sell-off of the oil has ignited some worries of the US inflation slowdown, which in turn will continue to keep bearish tone around the US dollar. Later today, there is very little on the cards in terms of fundamentals from the economic calendar, so the pair will continue to track the USD dynamics, while sharp moves in the EUR/GBP cross, especially in view of today’s EU summit, will also be able to bring some directional impetus to the pair in the day ahead.

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Monday, June 26th

The EUR/USD pair regained positive tone on the European opening, as the US dollar remains unable to recover its positions across the market. On Friday, the buck caught fresh offers on the back of dovish talks of FOMC members James Bullard and Loretta Mester, who spoke in favor of less aggressive rate hike in terms of weaker inflation’s growth pace. It is expected that the dovish comments of committee members will continue to remain as a main driver for the market, providing negative impact on the dollar during this trading session. Now immediate focus shifts towards the bloc of macroeconomic releases from the German economy, while later ahead we will have the US Core Durable Goods Orders report and ECB President M.Draghi’s speech at the ‘ECB Forum on Central Banking’ in Portugal, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities during NA session.

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Wednesday, June 28th

The EUR/USD pair remains highly positive in the middle of this week, having refreshed its multimonth highs at 1.1380 level in early Europe. Yesterday the pair received a huge boost from upbeat comments of the ECB President M.Draghi, delivered at the ECB Symposium. During his speech, Mr.Draghi stressed that softer inflation is temporary and growth of the EU economy is seen above trend. The market took these comments as a hint on a possible QE program tapering, thereby increasing demand for the common currency. Moreover, the US dollar mostly ignored yesterday Fed Chair J.Yellen’s neutral talks and continued to retreat against its main competitors amid reports of a delay in the Senate vote on the US Healthcare plan. Looking ahead, today developments surrounding the last day of the ECB Forum in Portugal, featuring speech of the ECB President M.Draghi, will hog the limelight during this trading session.

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Thursday, June 29th

Seems that the Euro bulls took a breather in mid-Asia after enormous rally, which pushed the EUR/USD pair to refresh its 2017 tops at 1.1419 level. Yesterday the major turned sharply lower and became cheaper nearly for a cent after Bloomberg revealed anonymous ECB source’s comments, which said that the market misinterpreted M.Draghi's remarks on narrowing economic stimulus, delivered at the ECB Symposium on Tuesday. However, the pair managed to regain its positive tone and continued to extend its bullish rally on the back of narrowing monetary policy divergence, as ECB President’s comments were eventually hawkish enough to keep supporting the euro. Adding to that, ongoing broad weakness of the US dollar is also collaborating with pair’s upbeat tone this Thursday. Today after several volatile days we have relatively quiet session with only the US GDP data report, so the market will continue to digest recent economic talks.

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Friday, June 30th

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its consolidation phase to the downside in early Europe, stepping away from the region of its 14-month highs, marked yesterday at 1.1445 level. Seems that investors prefer to take some profits off the table especially after pair's recent increase for more than 250-pips over the past three trading sessions, which was triggered by hawkish remarks of the ECB President M.Draghi. Moreover, the greenback has stalled its decline against its main competitors at the end of this week that is also collaborating with pair’s recent brief decline. Now all traders’ attention remains glued to German unemployment data, which will be able to bring some trading opportunities for market participants during European trading hours, while the US docket will keep silence at the end of this week, so the market will continue to digest recent talks of the Chief ECB Banker.


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Wednesday, July 5th

The EUR/USD pair regained its positive tone in Asia, as traders remain cautious ahead the key risky event of this Wednesday. Today markets remain in anticipation of the release of FOMC June meeting minutes, which will be able to shed some light on further Fed monetary policy moves. Markets are broadly expecting that FOMC protocols will hint on another rate increase by the end of this year. Adding to this, the euro also benefits from geopolitical tensions, triggered by North Korea’s missile launch, which are driving flows away from risky assets this Wednesday. Besides FOMC minutes, today traders will also see bloc of PMIs from the euro area, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair during the European trading session.

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Monday, July 10th

The EUR/USD pair was showing minor volatility during Asian session, keeping position within 10 pips narrow range near the level of 1.14. However, demand for the euro continues to cheer up bulls, as the ECB is showing surprisingly hawkish tone over the last few weeks, narrowing divergence of monetary policies between the ECB and Fed. However, lack of momentum could be explained by Friday’s positive results from the US labor market, which underpins investors’ hopes of another Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December, thus keeping US bulls in shape at the start of this week. In absence of any important market moving data on Monday, the US dollar’s price dynamics will stay as a key driver for the pair during this trading session.


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Tuesday, July 11th

The EUR/USD pair recovered part of its overnight retreat by the European opening, as the US dollar corrects slightly lower against its main competitors on Tuesday. During Asia, the pair came under renewed selling pressure after FOMC member J.Williams accelerated bullish run of the US dollar against its main competitors, noting that he expects another Fed rate hike this year. Adding to this, increased demand for higher-yielding assets, which was navigating the market during the Asian session, was also negatively influencing the pair. However, as the market passed over Friday's upbeat NFP print, which increased expectations of another Fed rate hike by the end of this year, the pair managed to regain some pips in early Europe, as investors are still digesting hawkish tone of the ECB President M.Draghi during his recent talks. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the JOLTs Job Openings report, while several Fedspeaks, scheduled on NA session, will also be closely watched for any hints on further Fed steps.

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Wednesday, July 12th

The EUR/USD pair corrected slightly lower from its 14-month highs, posted at 1.1489 this morning, on the back of minor profit-taking actions ahead of Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony. Yesterday the pair received strong bullish boost, as the US dollar came under pressure amid another US political scandal and slightly dovish Fedspeaks. Now all eyes are directed on Fed Chairwoman J.Yellen’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. It is expected that policymaker will justify another rate hike this year, while any details regarding further actions of the Federal Reserve will be able to shape up pair’s short-term trend. Besides Mrs Yellen’s speech, nothing important is scheduled in data calendar for this Wednesday, so broad market trend will continue to lead the pair throughout European trading hours.

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Thursday, July 13th

Seems that the sharp sell-off of the USD/CAD pair, triggered by hawkish BoC decision, ran out of steam, after the pair faced support at the level of 1.2681, which was last seen on June 24, 2016. Yesterday the Canadian CB made a decision to increase its interest rate by 0.25% for the first time in seven years that was considered by the market as extremely hawkish event, forcing the pair to lose more than 200 pips during the previous session. Adding to this, decision-accompanying statement also showed Bank’s confidence in further inflation potential growth, stating that recent softness of the inflation is temporary. However, the pair managed to correct slightly higher after its enormous downside rally, subsequently entering consolidation phase in the region of 1.2740-50. Expectedly that the pair will continue to stay under pressure during this session, as markets will continue to digest recent BoC meeting outcome, while bloc of data from both neighbor economies coupled with the second round of Fed Chair J.Yellen’s testimony will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities in the day ahead.

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