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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee
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Friday, July 14th

The EUR/USD pair remains largely flat-lined near the level of 1.14 on the final day of this week, barely benefiting from shrinking expectations of Fed aggressive tightening policy. Seems that EUR bulls also lack of any momentum today, as recent dovish comments of ECB member I.Rimsevics, talking about weaker inflation and necessity to run the QE program, are weighing the pair somewhat this Friday. On the other hand, shrinking risk appetite ahead of US fundamentals is lending some support to the euro, forcing the pair to step away from its overnights lows. Now all eyes remain glued to the US economic inflation data, which will bring some hints regarding further divergence between Fed and ECB political courses, thereby shaping up pair’s short-term trajectory. Besides inflation prints, the US will also release retail sales data, while Eurozone trade balance will keep investors busy during European trading hours.

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Tuesday, July 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bullish run for the third session in a row, refreshing its 14-month highs at 1.1538 spot, as the US president is losing the trust of his voters. The US dollar came under strong selling pressure against its major competitors in Asia, as D.Trump’s Healthcare bill failed to pass through Senate vote yet again. This streak of fails has increased concerns over D.Trump’s ability to deliver on the pre-election campaign promises, especially regarding his much-awaited tax reforms. However, seems that bulls took a breather in European morning, allowing the pair to correct slightly lower, as traders are repositioning their bets ahead of the bloc of economic reports by ZEW. Besides ZEW surveys, today the US economy will release the bloc of secondary economic reports, however, it is expected that the reaction of the market will be limited, so the US dollar price actions will continue to navigate the pair during the NA session.


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Wednesday, July 19th

The EUR/USD pair is correcting lower today from its 14-month highs, marked at 1.1583 level in the previous trading session. Seems that the dust around yesterday’s rejection of Trump’s Healthcare bill by the Senate has settled down, allowing the US dollar to correct higher against its major peers that in turn is weighing on the pair this Wednesday. However, further decline of the pair seems fragile, as the market turns cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. It is expected that the regulator will leave its interest rate at the same level, while any announcements regarding QE program will have significant influence on the pair. In the day ahead, the US will release fundamental reports from the housing market in the NA session, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair, while the EU docket will remain silent today, allowing the US dollar to navigate the pair during European trading hours.

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Wednesday, July 19th

The EUR/USD pair is correcting lower today from its 14-month highs, marked at 1.1583 level in the previous trading session. Seems that the dust around yesterday’s rejection of Trump’s Healthcare bill by the Senate has settled down, allowing the US dollar to correct higher against its major peers that in turn is weighing on the pair this Wednesday. However, further decline of the pair seems fragile, as the market turns cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. It is expected that the regulator will leave its interest rate at the same level, while any announcements regarding QE program will have significant influence on the pair. In the day ahead, the US will release fundamental reports from the housing market in the NA session, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair, while the EU docket will remain silent today, allowing the US dollar to navigate the pair during European trading hours.

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Friday, July 21st

The EUR/USD pair broke out of its brief consolidation phase, having refreshed its nearly 2-year highs at 1.1677 in Asia, as investors continue to digest recent talks of ECB President M.Draghi. Yesterday the pair performed aggressive bullish rally, despite neutral tone of Mr.Draghi during ECB press conference, talking about weaker inflation and possible extension of the QE program. However, Chief of the ECB confirmed readiness of the regulator to tackle the issue of the QE program in September. In addition, traders took positively Mr.Draghi’s comments on confident recovery of Eurozone’s economy, noting that recent weakness in inflation considered by the ECB as temporary. Meanwhile, the dollar has its own problems amid a new wave of scandals around possible US president D.Trump business deals with Russia. Later today, in absence of fresh fundamentals from both sides the pair will continue tracing US dollar’s price actions and global market trend to determine its further development course.

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Monday, August 7th

Today the EUR/USD pair managed to recover part of its positions, as US bulls have took a breather, allowing investors to lock in some profits after sharp drawdown, led by better-than-expected NFP results. However, the pair met strong resistance at its psychological level of 1.1800, as market participants seem still digesting Friday’s solid jobs data from the US. Positive data from the NFP report led to stronger confidence in the US economy and increased odds for a Fed rate hike in December. As a result, the divergence factor between Fed's monetary policy and the ECB has again come into play, thereby weighing the pair. Nothing important is scheduled in data calendar for today, so broad market trend will remain as an exclusive determinant for the pair at the beginning of this working week.

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Tuesday, August 8th

The EUR/USD pair managed to retake its psychological level of 1.1800 in Asian trading session, extending its recovery after major pullback, seen last Friday. By the moment of writing, the pair has eased part of its previous gains from its daily tops, marked at 1.1824, however, remaining in positive mood, as renewed sell-off around the dollar, triggered by yesterday’s comments of Fed N.Kashkari and J.Bullard, is navigating the market today. Both speakers sounded not so optimistic regarding further economic growth pace and inflation that forced the market to reconsider its expectations of possible Fed rate hike in December. Adding to this, the euro maintains a positive mood lately amid more hawkish sentiment of the ECB and improved fundamentals of the Eurozone. Now all traders’ attention shifts towards JOLTs Job Openings report, while EU economic calendar won’t bring any relevant releases today, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market sentiments during European trading hours.

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Wednesday, August 9th

The EUR/USD pair is following global market trend and corrected higher by the European opening after sharp drop, backed by positive data from the US labor market, as strong risk-off sentiments are supporting the Euro somewhat this Wednesday. Seems that the major has recovered a smile on the back of another spike of political tensions between the US and North Korea, triggered by headlines that North Korea's military is examining the operational plan to strike areas around the US territory of Guam with ballistic missiles. The North Korea’s statement was published after US President D.Trump warned NK that if it continues to threaten the US, it would "face fire and fury like the world has never seen." However, USD remains supported by upbeat US JOLTs job openings data, which could cap the renewed upside of the pair. Looking ahead, today the USD price dynamics will remain as a key determinant for the major amid lack of fundamental drivers from both calendars.

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Thursday, August 10th

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bid tone and currently is navigating to the south, extending its retreat below the level of 1.1750, as the US dollar is recovering ground across the market. Adding to this seems that the spike of geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea has faded away, providing no support to the common currency this Thursday. However, it is expected that the pair won’t show any sharp moves in the day ahead, as investors are awaiting for the main event of this week – Friday’s US inflation prints, bringing some cautiousness across the market, as better-than-expected results will be able to hint on further US monetary policy tightening measures. On the data front, the EU calendar will remain silent today, leaving the pair at the mercy of the USD dynamics until the releases of the US PPI and jobless claims data, which will be released in the NA session.

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Friday, August 11th

The EUR/USD pair came out of its brief consolidation phase to the downside, as investors are taking some profits off the table after yesterday’s upsurge, backed by poor US PPI report and dovish speech of FOMC member B.Dudly, talking about weaker inflation rate. The selling pressure, however, seems to have eased for the time being, as traders currently are preparing for the much-awaited US CPI report, due for release later during the NA session. This inflation data will be one of the key factors of the Fed's next monetary policy action and hence, should provide a fresh directional impetus to the major currency pair. Besides the US crucial data, today we won’t see any relevant data reports, as the EU docket won’t be able to surprise the market during European trading hours, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market trend until the major event.

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