Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee
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Tuesday, September 19th

The EUR/USD pair continues to keep its bid tone so far this week, trying to break through its psychological resistance of 1.2000. Recent upside rally of the pair is mainly driven by broad weakness of the US dollar, backed by uncertainty around upcoming potential tax reform by the Trump administration. However, any further gains of the pair may appear limited, as we are heading towards the main event of this week – FOMC interest rate decision, which will take place tomorrow during the NA session. Markets are widely expecting that the Fed will provide some hints on further steps regarding its monetary policy. On the data front, investors are now eagerly awaiting for German ZEW economic sentiment for fresh directional impetus, while the US data from the labor market will also be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.

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Wednesday, September 20th

The EUR/USD pair extends its winning streak, trading for the fifth consecutive session with gains. In Asia the pair received strong bullish impetus, having leaped above its psychological resistance of 1.2000, as the US dollar continues to lose points against its main rivals. However, the pair corrected slightly lower on the back of increased nervousness across the market, provoked by upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is the key risky event of this week. It is expected that the Fed will leave its interest rate untouched, however, the revision of economic forecast and any comments of the Central Bank members on further monetary policy tightening measures will remain key themes of Fed’s meeting. On the data front, the EU data calendar will remain silent, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend, while the US will publish data from the housing market, which will be able to bring some short-term impetus to the pair ahead of the key risky event of this Wednesday.

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Thursday, September 21st

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure on Thursday on the back of renewed buying interest around the greenback, underpinned by the hawkish outcome of the FOMC meeting. Yesterday the pair dipped for more than 160 points, following hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed. As it was widely expected, the Fed left its interest rate unchanged, while making markets confident that there will be another rate hike this year and three more in 2018. Moreover, the regulator officially announced that it would start shrinking balance sheet in October, following schedule, laid out in July. Adding to this, the Fed stressed that recent weakness of the inflation remains temporary, expecting that it will reach regulator’s target level of 2% in the mid-term projection. Today the markets will continue to digest the outcome of the recent event, which will continue to support the greenback across the market, while Philly Fed manufacturing index and ECB President M.Draghi’s speech, scheduled for the NA session, will provide the pair with additional directional impetus.

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Friday, September 22nd

The EUR/USD pair continues to extend recovery from its sharp drop, backed by the outcome of recent FOMC meeting, and now is eyeing to retake the level of 1.2000. Strong risk aversion sentiments, triggered by escalation of the US-N.Korea conflict, support the main currency pair at the end of this week. According to the latest news, Pyongyang warned the US that it might conduct another Hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific Ocean in response to the new sanctions that US President D.Trump is going to apply to N.Korea. Adding to this, broad correction of the US dollar after hawkish outcome of the Fed meeting and positive morning German Manufacturing data are also supporting the pair on Friday. Today only the speech by ECB President M.Draghi is scheduled in the economic event calendar, so the US dollar dynamics will continue to determine pair’s trajectory throughout this trading session.

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Monday, September 25th

The EUR/USD pair failed its attempt to fill in its today’s bearish gap and returned back in the area of 1.1900 level. Recent weakness of the common currency is mainly attributed to the disappointing victory of A.Merkel’s Conservative Party, which failed to gain the majority of seats in the Bundestag. So now, Mrs. Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc will have to form a coalition that is viewed by the markets as a probable source of political uncertainty, thereby weighing the euro. Moreover, the greenback continues to keep its positive tone across the market on the back of easing US-N.Korea conflict that is also adding some pressure on the major currency pair at the start of this working week. Today the main event for the pair will remain ECB President M.Draghi’s testimony before the ECON Committee in Brussels, which will be able to shed some light on further ECB monetary policy developments, while the US calendar will remain broadly silent today, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market sentiments.

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Tuesday, September 26th

The EUR/USD pair failed to keep its overnight recovery mode, as demand for the US dollar has returned to the market. Currently the pair continues to extend its march into red territory, having refreshed its monthly lows at 1.1822. The main driver for the pair’s retreat remains the divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, fueled by hawkish outcome of Fed meeting and dovish speech of ECB president M.Draghi, delivered a day before. During his speech, Mr.Draghi stressed that the ECB will continue to adhere to accommodative policy as long as it will be needed. Moreover, recent A.Merkel’s disappointing win on the German election also continues to weight the common currency. Later today, Fed Chair J.Yellen will deliver her speech, which will be especially interesting in view of recent economic developments from both sides. On the data front, nothing noteworthy is expected from the EU economic calendar, while the US will publish bloc of important data releases, which will keep investors busy during the NA session.

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Wednesday, September 27th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish trip for the third consecutive session, having already lost about 2 cents since this week highs, marked in the region of 1.1940. Broad demand for the US dollar remains the key driving factor across the market on Wednesday, as investors are still digesting yesterday’s more hawkish speech by Fed Chair J.Yellen, during which the head of the regulator reaffirmed market’s expectations regarding implementation of the more aggressive monetary policy. Mrs. Yellen stressed that there are some risks associated with a too gradual increase of the interest rate. Adding to this, the greenback reacted positively to recent news that US President D.Trump to present much-awaited tax reform plans later this session. On the data front, today the EU docket won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of global market trend and the US dollar price dynamics, while investors will focus their attention on a slew of the US macro releases for fresh near-term trading opportunities.

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Monday, October 2nd

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its Friday’s recovery path and fell to its 2-day lows, located in the area of 1.1740 level, on the back of recent political headlines from Spain. The main currency pair came under strong selling pressure at the start of this trading week in wake of referendum vote for Catalonia’s independence from Spain, which was held on Sunday. As a result, 90% of Catalans voted "Yes" to leave Spain, but only 42.3% of voters took part in the referendum and the Spanish constitutional court declared referendum results illegal. This political uncertainty around the Euro area triggered fresh sell-off of the common currency across the market on Monday. Moreover, increased demand for the greenback, underpinned by market’s expectation of another Fed rate hike this year, also exerts negative influence on the main currency pair today. On the data front, today the European data calendar will offer only secondary data reports, which will unlikely provide the pair with notable impact, while the US ISM manufacturing data will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities for the pair during the NA trading session.

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Tuesday, October 3rd

The EUR/USD pair followed widespread market sentiments in Asia and spiked its support level of 1.1700, having refreshed its 2-month lows at 1.1696 spot. The main market-moving factor remains increased demand of the US dollar, as risen expectations of another Fed rate hike by the end of this year and solid economic results of the US economy are supporting the greenback across the market. Adding to this, the common currency continues to remain influenced by Sunday’s Catalonia independence referendum, which led to a surge of violence on the streets of Spain, thereby exerting notable pressure on the euro. However, the pair managed to bounce off its recent lows and to recover part of its overnight loses amid profit taking actions around the US Dollar. Today we have absolutely empty data calendar, so the pair will continue to trace US dollar price actions and broad market trend to determine its further direction.

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Wednesday, October 4th

The EUR/USD pair retains its recovery trend for the second day in a row on the back of renewed weakness of the US dollar, backed by recent Fed leadership talks. In Asia the pair came under bullish control, having refreshed its 2-day highs at 1.1800 spot, in wake of speculations on who will take Fed Chair positions, once Yellen’s term expires next year. The market is digesting idea that the next Fed Chairperson could become FOMC member J.Powell, as he looks more ideologically aligned with Trump administration, while remaining more dovish candidate then Mrs. Yellen. However, the pair stalled its upside trend, as political jitters surrounding the Catalan referendum vote are still weighing on the common currency. Today we have plenty of macroeconomic events, such as the ADP Jobs report, US ISM services PMI and speeches of both heads of the regulators, which will be able to provoke fresh wave of speculations regarding divergence between the Fed and ECB during the NA session.

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