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Friday, October 6th

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control so far this session, wobbling in the region of its nearly 2-month lows, marked earlier this morning in the vicinity of 1.1700, as upbeat sentiments around the dollar are weighing the pair. Recent pickup in demand of the US dollar could be explained by the latest Fed talks on another rate hike at the end of this year and a slew of positive economic releases, seen earlier this week. On the other hand, yesterday’s ECB Sept meeting minutes showed regulator's intent to keep its monetary policy highly accommodative. This stance of the regulator sparked another wave of speculations regarding the divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and ECB, which added some extra bearish pressure on the pair. On the data front, today the EU docket won’t bring anything noteworthy, leaving the pair at the mercy of widespread market moods, while the US data calendar contains much awaited NFP data, which will set up sentiments around the greenback in short-term projection.

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Tuesday, October 10th

The EUR/USD pair continues to show positive dynamics for the third consecutive session on the back of weaker positions of the US dollar, despite uncertain political climate in Spain. However, further upside looks unlikely, as now all market’s attention remains focused on Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont's speech, who, as expected, can declare the independence of the region unilaterally. This outcome of the current situation may trigger spike of volatility across the market and, as a result, massive moves of the pair. However, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, backed by awful results from the US labor market, continues to navigate the market, offering some support to the main currency pair lately. Today both economic calendars lack any major market moving releases, so developments on Spain’s political field will remain as an exclusive driving factor for the pair on Tuesday.

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Wednesday, October 11th

The EUR/USD pair remains better bid on Wednesday, mostly ignoring uncertainty surrounding Spain. Yesterday Catalonia’s President Carles Puigdemont and other regional politicians signed a document declaring Catalonia's independence from Spain. Moreover, Mr. Puigdemont also delivered a speech, begging Spanish government for a dialog. However, the Spanish government keeps its position clear and does not recognize actions of the Catalan leader. On the other hand, ongoing weakness of the US dollar, additionally boosted by yesterday’s dovish comments of Dallas Fed Chief R.Kaplan, pointing on a postponement of Fed rate hike this year, also collaborates with pair’s upside in the middle of this week. Today all traders’ attention will remain focused on the FOMC Sept meeting minutes, which will be able to bring fresh insight on further Fed monetary policy path, while data from the US labor market and developments from the Spanish political field will also be able to provide the pair directional impetus in the day ahead.

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Thursday, October 12th

The EUR/USD pair extends its northward trend for the fifth consecutive session, having refreshed its 2-week highs in the vicinity of 1.1880 level, on the back of ongoing decline of the greenback. Recent weakness of the dollar is mostly attributed to the dovish outcome of the latest FOMC meeting, which revealed that some members were worried that recent drawdown of the inflation may not be temporary. These dovish comments eased market’s confidence that the Fed will continue to implement more aggressive tightening path of the monetary policy. Moreover, the common currency continues to benefit from easing concerns over the separation of Catalonia. Yesterday Spanish PM M.Rajoy announced that he gives 5 days to Catalonia’s leader C.Puigdemont to clarify the situation with the independence of Catalonia and 3 more days to "correct" it. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the US PPI data and several speeches from both sides, which will set up pair’s further trajectory during this trading session, while tomorrow’s US CPI report will keep investors from making important decisions, especially in light of the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting.

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Thursday, October 12th

The EUR/USD pair extends its northward trend for the fifth consecutive session, having refreshed its 2-week highs in the vicinity of 1.1880 level, on the back of ongoing decline of the greenback. Recent weakness of the dollar is mostly attributed to the dovish outcome of the latest FOMC meeting, which revealed that some members were worried that recent drawdown of the inflation may not be temporary. These dovish comments eased market’s confidence that the Fed will continue to implement more aggressive tightening path of the monetary policy. Moreover, the common currency continues to benefit from easing concerns over the separation of Catalonia. Yesterday Spanish PM M.Rajoy announced that he gives 5 days to Catalonia’s leader C.Puigdemont to clarify the situation with the independence of Catalonia and 3 more days to "correct" it. Today all traders attention will remain focused on the US PPI data and several speeches from both sides, which will set up pair’s further trajectory during this trading session, while tomorrow’s US CPI report will keep investors from making important decisions, especially in light of the outcome of the latest FOMC meeting.

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Monday, October 16th

The EUR/USD pair extends its downside trend for the third consecutive day, having breached the level of 1.1800 this morning, on the back of headlines about ECB QE program and expectations of the outcome on the Catalan independence declaration. The political uncertainty surrounding Catalonia’s independence vote remains one of the key driving factors for the pair, as worries about further escalation of political uncertainty in Spain weigh on the common currency. Moreover, recent news headlines, stating that the ECB intends to implement only minor adjustments in the QE program, which won’t be able to affect the overall picture, exert extra pressure on the euro. Adding to this, Friday’s dovish comments of ECB president M.Draghi, who once again reiterated the need of more accommodative monetary policy, forced the pair to close eyes to Friday’s disappointing US inflation and retail sales figures. Today both economic calendars won’t offer anything relevant, so the pair will continue to navigate, following broad market trend, while any developments from Spanish political field will be able to trigger volatility in the day ahead.

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Tuesday, October 17th

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control for the fourth consecutive session, as uncertainty on the political field of Spain drags the euro lower against its main competitors. Yesterday Catalonia leader Carles Puigdemont failed to provide more clarity on the current situation, so the Spanish government gave him more time to decide on whether he wants to declare the independency of Catalonia or not. Moreover, continuing optimism around the US dollar remains one of the key driving factors across the market so far this week, which also negatively affects the pair. On the data front, now investors are looking forward to the release of the German ZE surveys and Eurozone final CPI report, which will be able to set up pair’s next trajectory, while the US calendar will offer only secondary data reports during the NA session, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend.

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Wednesday, October 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bearish trend for the fifth consecutive session, remaining within striking distance of its weekly lows, marked yesterday at 1.1736 spot. Ongoing decline of the pair could be mainly explained by increasing demand for the US dollar. Yesterday the greenback caught fresh bids after hawkish comments of Fed member P.Harker, who predicted another three rate hikes next year, which were considered by the market as hint on more aggressive Fed monetary policy tightening. Moreover, yesterday US President D.Trump added some extra optimism around the US dollar, saying that he wants to implement tax reform by Christmas. On the other side, any further recovery of the euro looks unlikely, as the Catalan crisis is still unresolved. Today, the head of the ECB M.Draghi is expected to speak, while the US will release data from the housing market, which will provide additional trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.

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Thursday, October 19th

The EUR/USD pair stays positive on Thursday, having refreshed this week tops at 1.1822 level, as slight weakness of the US dollar is one of the key driving factors on the market. Seems that yesterday’s retreat of the greenback, additionally boosted by lackluster US housing data, supports the pair in the second half of this week, forcing it to keep its positions above the level of 1.1800. However, the pair stalled its downside direction in early Europe, as investors are digesting recent headlines, saying that the Catalan leader C.Puigdemont threatened Spain PM M.Rajoy that he would declare formal independence in case of no dialogue from Madrid. In response to this announcement, the Spanish PM intends to call a cabinet meeting on Saturday to discuss current situation. Expected, that today the pair will remain influenced by Catalan political updates, while the US will release Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

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Friday, October 20th

The EUR/USD pair met strong selling pressure on Friday after two consecutive session with gains, falling below the level of 1.1800. The downside rally of the pair could be mainly explained by renewed demand for the US dollar, as the US Senate has passed 2018 budget blueprint, which brings US President D.Trump’s tax reforms one-step closer to its implementation. Adding to this, ongoing uncertainty on the political field of Spain also collaborates with pair’s retreat, as the Spanish government could suspend Catalonia’s autonomy on Saturday in response to recent threats of C.Puigdemont to declare the independency of Catalonia, which remains one of the negative scenario of events. Today we will have pretty quiet data session, as EU data calendar lacks any important data releases, while the US will publish only existing home sales data, so broad market trend and the US dollar price dynamics will remain as key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

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