Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: euro at the crossroads

11/10/2017

Current dynamics

Today, the euro is trading higher; receiving support after the President of Catalonia Carles Puicdemont said that he is postponing the declaration of independence. Yesterday in Barcelona, a declaration was adopted on the independence of Catalonia from Spain, however, the head of the Catalan government Carles Puicdemont said that "Catalonia should become independent, but it is impossible to hurry with this". The growth of the single European currency is limited, although the euro rose to 2-week highs against the US dollar and the Swiss franc, as investors await the reaction of Madrid.

The response statement of Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may become a key factor determining the direction of the euro in the future until the October ECB meeting (October 26), when the question of the prospects for curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone will be again decided.

At the same time, today investors will study the text of the minutes from the September meeting of the Fed, which will be published at 18:00 (GMT).

As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and FOMC member Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, "if we wait too long for signs of accelerating inflation, then we will have to raise interest rates at a higher rate. In this case, the probability of a recession in the US economy will increase".

Earlier (last week) another Fed representative, FOMC member John Williams, said in the same vein that he "still considers it expedient to have another interest rate increase in 2017 and three rate hikes in 2018, which corresponds to a gradual rate of tightening policy".

Two representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank Charles Evans (11:15 GMT) and John Williams (18:40 GMT) are scheduled for today. It is likely that the dollar will receive support from their speeches, as they are likely to come forward in support of the Fed's plans for a phased tightening of monetary policy.

According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of an increase in interest rates in the US by the end of this year at 88% versus 31% a month ago after the publication of a report on the labor market in the US last Friday. Despite the fact that the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in September decreased for the first time in seven years (by 33,000), the unemployment rate in September fell by 0.2 percentage points, to 4.2%, which was the lowest since the beginning 2001.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

At the moment, the EUR/USD is trading at an important short-term resistance level 1.1815 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), maintaining a positive momentum.

The signal for further growth will be a breakdown of the local resistance level at 1.1845 (today's highs). In this case, the EUR/USD growth will resume within the upward channel on the weekly chart. The target of the growth is the mark 1.2180 (the upper border of the channel and the Fibonacci level of 50% corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).

An alternative scenario for the decline involves a breakdown of the support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) and a drop to support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

Medium-term reduction targets after the breakdown of the level of 1.1630 – are support levels 1.1360 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6%).

Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1360, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1815, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1790. Stop-Loss 1.1850. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400

Buy Stop 1.1850. Stop-Loss 1.1790. Take-Profit 1.1870, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

DJIA: stock indexes continue to grow

12/10/2017

Current dynamics

US stock markets on Wednesday continued to grow after Wednesday's (18:00 GMT) punctures were published punctuated by the September meeting of the Fed.

The minutes said that while many members of the committee still expect another rate hike in 2017, some of them admit the temporary nature of low inflation in the US, which encourages them to take a more cautious approach to raising interest rates.

The protocols indicate that the Fed leaders have not yet reached a consensus on inflation, which could increase uncertainty about monetary policy in the coming months. "It is noted that it is necessary to maintain patience with curtailing soft policies, assessing inflation trends," the protocols say. Chicago Fed president FOMC member Charles Evans said yesterday that he is "a little concerned" about whether it's worth raising rates again if inflation does not accelerate. Another member of the FOMC, Robert Kaplan, who is the president of the Fed-Dallas, also said that he had not yet decided whether he would vote for a rate hike in December.

According to the CME Group futures market, the probability of an increase in the Fed's interest rate in December is 82.9% versus 93.1% before the publication of the minutes.

All three major US stock indexes rose again, reaching new record highs yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 22872.00, the S & P500 rose 0.2% to 2,555.00, the Nasdaq Composite - up 0.3% to 6603.00.

American stock indexes continued to grow actively from the end of last month, when

Republicans presented in the US Congress their plan to reform the tax code, suggesting significantly lower taxes for companies and many individuals. This again revived hopes that the Trump administration will be able to take measures that will support economic growth.

Low inflation does not allow the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. In combination with strong macroeconomic data, this gives grounds to market participants to continue investing in high-risk high-risk assets of the US stock market, which is reflected in the growth of indices.

As the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, stated today, the US economy "is firmly on its feet, and there are some signs that such a picture will continue to be observed." According to Bostic, GDP growth will be about 2%, and the hurricanes that hit the country in recent months are unlikely to disrupt the recovery.

At 14:30 (GMT) today, representatives of the Federal Reserve, members of the FOMC Lel Brainard and Jerome Powell, whom US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin urged US President Donald Trump to appoint as the new chairman of the Fed, will speak today. The appointment of Powell as the head of the central bank is likely to be positively received by market participants.

It's interesting to hear what Powell will say about the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy until the end of the year.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

The DJIA index continues to grow since January 2016. Yesterday DJIA updated the absolute maximum near the 22865.0 mark, keeping positive dynamics.

Reducing fears about the effects of hurricanes in the United States, positive macro data from the US, as well as the Fed's still obscure overall position on further interest rate hikes amid low inflation, create prerequisites for investors to increase their appetite for buying risky assets.

Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts recommend long positions.

Consideration of short positions is possible only in the short term and only after the breakdown of the support levels 22705.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 22600.0 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).

While DJIA is trading above the key support level of 21168.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth in the wave from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark of 22177.0), long-term positive dynamics persists.

The breakdown of the local resistance level of 22865.0 will signal the continuation of the growth of the index.

Support levels: 22705.0, 22600.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21500.0, 21168.0

Resistance levels: 22865.0


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 22870.0. Stop-Loss 22750.0. Take-Profit 23000.0, 24000.0

Sell Stop 22750.0. Stop-Loss 22870.0. Take-Profit 22705.0, 22600.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21500.0, 21168.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: pound grows ahead of BOE meeting in November

Current dynamics

13/10/2017

The focus of traders today will be the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a block of inflation indicators for the US for September. In general, the growth of indicators is expected. Nevertheless, according to many economists, only stronger than expected data can support the dollar. Moreover, for the stable growth of the dollar, it will take inflation to show good results within a few months.

Among the indicators published today in the US:

1) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a key indicator for assessing inflation. The forecast: + 0.6% (against + 0.4%, according to the previous report),

2) The level of retail sales. This is the main indicator of consumer spending. The report is leading, and further data can be heavily revised. The forecast: +1,7% (against -0,2%, according to the previous report).

In addition, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of four representatives of the Federal Reserve: Eric Rosengren, Charles Evans, Stephen Kaplan, and Jerome Powell. Their performances are scheduled for 12:30, 14:25, 15:30, 17:00 (GMT), respectively. In the Fed there is no consensus on the timing of raising the interest rate. And this is holding back the dollar from more active recovery, despite a number of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US recently.

Meanwhile, the pound is growing in the currency market on the eve of the November meeting of the Bank of England, which can go on raising the interest rate amid a sharp increase after the referendum on Brexit inflation in the country, as well as strong macroeconomic indicators.

Thus, the level of retail sales in the UK increased in September by 1.9% (in annual terms), which is better than the forecast (+1.3%). The growth of retail sales indicates an increase in the level of domestic consumption and consumption of consumers in the UK, whose GDP is largely due to the domestic consumption of British people.

Many economists expect that the British pound will grow, as the prospect of an immediate increase in interest rates in the UK pushed fears about Brexit into the background. Yesterday, the pair GBP/USD fell after Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator for Brexit from the EU, said that the negotiations had entered an "alarming" impasse. Then the pound recovered amid reports that the EU could agree to a two-year transition period.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Today, the GBP/USD pair is growing for the fifth consecutive day, recovering more than half of last week's losses. It is likely that after a three-week decline, the GBP/USD is corrected. At the moment, GBP/USD is trying to gain a foothold above the important support levels: 1.3227 (EMA200 on 4-hour and 1-hour charts), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP/USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts turned to long positions.

In case of breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3322 (today's highs), GBP/USD may continue to rise within the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near resistance level 1.3745 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

While the GBP/USD pair is trading above the support level of 1.3000 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart), the positive mid-term dynamics of the GBP/USD is maintained.

Alternative scenario: after the breakdown of support level 1.3175, GBP/USD will go to support level 1.3000, the breakdown of which will increase the risks of GBP/USD return to the global downtrend, which began in July 2014.

Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975

Resistance levels: 1.3290, 1.3435, 1.3460, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3745


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3240. Stop-Loss 1.3330. Take-Profit 1.3225, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975

Buy Stop 1.3330. Stop-Loss 1.3240. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3460, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3745

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: Week of publication of important macro data for Great Britain

Current dynamics

16/10/2017

The focus of traders trading in the British pound, this week will be the publication of important macro data on the UK. On Tuesday (08:30 GMT), a block of inflation indicators for the UK for September (indices of producer prices, consumer price indices) will be published. It is expected that annual inflation in September rose to 3.0%, reaching the highest level in more than five years. The increase in inflation was triggered by the weakening of the British pound after the referendum on Brexit, held in the summer of 2016.

Inflation, outstripping the growth of wages, forces the British to limit their spending, which leads to a slowdown in the growth of the British economy, which is largely oriented toward the domestic market.

Also on Tuesday (10:15 GMT) the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is scheduled.

On Wednesday (08:30) there will be data on the UK labor market for September, and data may show a drop in the unemployment rate below 4.3%, and on Thursday strong retail sales data may be published.

If the data really justifies expectations and will prove to be strong, market participants will be able to more confidently take into account the increase in the key interest rate at a meeting of the Bank of England on November 2.

Now the probability of an increase in the rate in November is taken into account at the level of 85%. It is likely that the British pound will rise, as the prospect of an increase in interest rates in the UK temporarily pushed fears about Brexit into the background.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Since the beginning of the year, the GBP/USD has been rising in the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near resistance level 1.3760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

As a result of the 5-day growth, the GBP/USD is once again trading above the important support levels of 1.3185 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the GBP/USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 ), 1.3230 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

Positive dynamics of the pair supported by positive macro data and the expectation of a rate increase in the UK. If the growth continues, the targets will be the resistance levels 1.3440 (local highs and the middle of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.3630 (annual highs), 1.3760.

While the GBP/USD is trading above the support level of 1.3000 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the uplink on the weekly chart), positive medium-term dynamics is maintained.

To review short positions, you can return after the breakdown of the support level of 1.3185. The breakdown of the support level of 1.3000 will increase the risks of GBP/USD return to the global downtrend, which began in July 2014.

Support levels: 1.3230, 1.3210, 1.3185, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3250. Stop-Loss 1.3340. Take-Profit 1.3230, 1.3210, 1.3185, 1.3100, 1.3000

Buy Stop 1.3340. Stop-Loss 1.3250. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: Fundamental factors are on the side of bears

17/10/2017

Current dynamics


The CPI of New Zealand in the third quarter grew by 0.5% (the forecast was +0.4% and 0% in the previous quarter) and 1.9% in annual terms (the forecast was +1.8% and 1.7% in the previous quarter). Such data was published today at the beginning of the trading day by the Bureau of Statistics of New Zealand. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation and an indicator of changes in consumer trends. In response to the publication, the New Zealand dollar jumped in price, gaining about 30 points against the US dollar. Later, during the Asian session, the NZD / USD pair declined, however, again moved to positive territory during the first half of the European session.

Despite the 7-day volatile growth of the NZD/USD, the New Zealand currency is experiencing difficulties with growth. This is facilitated by both the US dollar strengthening its positions, and domestic political uncertainty in New Zealand. There is still no government in the country. The elections that took place at the end of September in New Zealand did not reveal an absolute winner, and now the National, Labor, Green, ACT and the First Party, which received the majority, will have to form a coalition government. Political uncertainty negatively affects the quotations of the national currency.

Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthens its position in the foreign exchange market. On Monday, Donald Trump confirmed his promise to carry out the tax reform, stating, "I would like it to be over in this calendar year". The leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnel, supported Trump on this issue.

Today, after 14:00 (GMT), the price index for dairy products prepared by Global Dairy Trade will be published. Last time (two weeks ago) the index came out with a value of -2.4% (against the previous value of +0.9%). Dairy products – is one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.

Published today, the consumer price index, although it came out better than the forecast, is in the middle of the target range of the central bank.

At a meeting in late September, the RB of New Zealand maintained the current interest rate at the current level of 1.75%. According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.

In the US, further tightening of monetary policy is expected. Investors estimate the probability of a third rate increase this year around 90%, according to the CME Group. This supports the US dollar, as this increases the yield of US assets.

Thus, the fundamental factors are still on the side of the bears in relation to the NZD/USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Technical analysis

The third day, the NZD / USD pair makes an attempt to break through the strong resistance levels 0.7175 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7195 (EMA144 on the day, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.

In case of breaking the nearest short-term support level 0.7144 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the decline will resume, and NZD / USD will go to support levels 0.7080 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 0.7045 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The goal in case of further decline will be the support level of 0.6980 (the lows of July and November 2016). The break of 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range between 0.7550 and 0.6860) will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and return to the downtrend.

An alternative scenario involves a return to the zone above the resistance level of 0.7195 and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 0.7700 level. The growth targets in this case are the resistance levels of 0.7430 (September highs), 0.7550 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 50% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, here are the minimums of December 2016), 0.7700.

Support levels: 0.7144, 0.7080, 0.7045, 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6860

Resistance levels: 0.7175, 0.7195, 0.7240, 0.7285


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7150. Stop-Loss 0.7210. Take-Profit 0.7100, 0.7000, 0.6900

Buy Stop 0.7210. Stop-Loss 0.7150. Take-Profit 0.7240, 0.7285, 0.7300, 0.7400, 0.7430, 0.7500, 0.7550

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: the euro is prone to decline

18/10/2017

Current dynamics

Speaking today at the opening of the conference dedicated to structural reforms held at the ECB headquarters, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, did not concern the monetary policy decisions expected from the ECB on October 26.

Nevertheless, the head of the ECB said that the research "has not revealed convincing evidence that high interest rates promote more active reform. The reverse statement seems more plausible: lower rates usually contribute to reforms, since they create more favorable macroeconomic conditions".

Thus, Draghi once again recalled the propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the ECB, whose meeting will be held on October 26.

All the attention of investors will now be focused on the speeches of the bank's leaders before this date. To date, two more presentations by ECB representatives are planned: Peter Prat (at 11:45 GMT) and Benoit Car (at 14:15).

Also it is worth paying attention to the speech of representatives of the Fed Robert Kaplan and William Daly (12:00 GMT). As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the member of the FOMC with the right to vote Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, "Given the good state of the US economy, I expect progress (in relation to inflation), which in turn will allow us to continue the gradual abandonment of stimulus measures".

Last Sunday, the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, also spoke in the same vein, saying that "the observed strength of the economy justifies a gradual increase" in short-term interest rates in the US.

Published yesterday, data on industrial production in the US for September, confirmed the statements of Kaplan and Yellen. Industrial production grew by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 1.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, despite strong hurricanes that last month. The data indicated a favorable situation in the US industry and strengthened arguments in favor of higher interest rates by the US Federal Reserve at the end of this year.

At the same time, the euro remains under pressure amid an uncertain situation with the independence of Catalonia.

The head of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, did not clarify the question of his declared independence of Catalonia, and now, from October 19, Madrid threatens to end the autonomy of this region of Spain. Any escalation of tension around the situation in Catalonia will negatively affect the euro.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

With the annual peaks in September close to 1.2090, the EUR/USD is steadily declining to the lower border of the upward channel on the weekly chart and support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.

At the beginning of the European session, the EUR/USD is trading below the important level of 1.1780 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900), and the trend towards further decline remains.

The signal for resumption of growth will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.1810 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart) and the local resistance level 1.1875. In this case, the EUR/USD growth will resume within the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near the resistance level 1.2340 (EMA144 on the monthly chart). The growth targets are level 1.2090 (September highs), 1.2180 (Fibonacci level 50%), 1.2340.

Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1400, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1810, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1720. Stop-Loss 1.1785. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400

Buy Stop 1.1785. Stop-Loss 1.1720. Take-Profit 1.1810, 1.1875, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: GBP down on retail sales data

19/10/2017

Current dynamics

According to official data released on Thursday, in September, as compared to August, retail sales decreased by 0.8% (the forecast was -0.1% and weak growth in August +0.9%).

In the third quarter, compared to the same period last year, retail sales grew by only 1.2%, and this was the weakest annual growth rate in four years.

The decline in retail sales indicates a decline in the standard of living of the British after voting for an exit from the EU, and this is a worrying signal for a UK-dominated economy that is oriented primarily to the domestic market.

The drop in retail sales occurs against the backdrop of accelerated inflation after last year's referendum on withdrawal from the EU, when the pound fell sharply. Growing inflation drags not only producer prices, but also import and consumer prices, which grew by 3% in September (in annual terms), and this growth rate was the fastest in five and a half years.

The growth of consumer prices for eight months in a row exceeds the target level set by the Bank of England at 2%. This is a very strong argument in favor of an early increase in the interest rate. But even though the referendum on Brexit sharply increased in Great Britain last summer, the Bank of England will be very cautious and cautious about tightening monetary policy.

As the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney said on Tuesday, the unsuccessful negotiations on Brexit can carry with them significant economic risks, not only for the UK, but also for the Eurozone.

Many market participants expect that in November the Bank of England will still raise the key interest rate to 0.5% from the current level of 0.25%, and this will be the first rate increase for the decade. Nevertheless, further increases in rates may become difficult on the backdrop of the difficulties of the growth of the British economy due to Brexit.

Thus, the fundamental factors say in favor of weakening the GBP/USD. The growth will be possible against the backdrop of the weakening of the dollar, especially if it again escalates, for example, the geopolitical confrontation on the Korean peninsula, or there will be unexpected news about the change in the leadership of the Fed.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

As early as Tuesday, the GBP/USD broke through the important support levels of 1.3185 (EMA50 on the daily chart), 1.3210 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200), 1.3225 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts), and today the decline continues.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts were deployed to short positions.

Nevertheless, we can say that the GBP/USD maintains a positive trend, which is supported by positive macro data and the expectation of an early rate hike in the UK.

Since the beginning of the year, GBP / USD continues to trade in the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is near resistance level 1.3760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

In case of returning to the zone above the resistance level 1.3225 and breaking through the local resistance level 1.3335, it is possible to consider long positions with targets at resistance levels 1.3440 (local highs and the middle of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.3630 (annual highs), 1.3760.

For now, short positions with targets near the level of 1.3000 (EMA144, EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart) are preferred.

The breakdown of the key support level of 1.3000 will increase the risk of GBP / USD return to the global downtrend that began in July 2014.

Support levels: 1.3120, 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975

Resistance levels: 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3225, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3120. Stop-Loss 1.3190. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3000, 1.2975

Buy Stop 1.3190. Stop-Loss 1.3120. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3225, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/JPY: the Nikkei index breaks records, and the yen remains under pressure

20/10/2017

Current dynamics

After a 6-week continuous growth, the Japanese stock index Nikkei reached several multi-year highs, bargaining at the end of today's Asian session near the mark of 21500.00. At the same time, amid the growth of the Japanese stock market, the yen remains under pressure and is down against the dollar, since early September.

This Sunday in Japan, early elections will be held, and it is expected that the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will remain in power. Abe supports soft monetary policy, which contributes to the growth of the stock market and the reduction of the yen.

Head of the Central Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda again promised to continue the implementation of extra soft monetary policy and expressed confidence in the strength of the country's economy. In his opinion, the current policy corresponds to short-term and long-term target levels of the Bank of Japan. "The recent improvement in the situation was caused by the balanced growth of domestic and external demand, and I believe in significant economic growth stability," Kuroda said. At present, the Bank of Japan expects that inflation will reach 2% by March 2020, but this forecast can be revised at the end of October, when the next meeting of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy (October 31) will take place.

At a meeting last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen per year. The head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful mitigation in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and "take additional mitigation measures, if necessary".

At the same time, the dollar is growing again in the foreign exchange market. As it became known, the US Senate approved the draft budget 51 votes to 49, which is one of the conditions for unlocking the procedure that the Republicans plan to use to make changes in the taxation system with the help of the votes of only the Republican Party.

"Adoption of the budget is critical for tax reform that will strengthen our economy after several years of stagnation under the previous administration", said Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate.

The given news stimulated the growth of the dollar. The index of the dollar WSJ rose from the opening of today's trading day at 0.4% and reached a maximum for the month near the 87.00 mark. The yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to 2,360% from the level of 2,323%, recorded on Thursday night in New York.

After yesterday's decline, the pair USD / JPY is rising again today. Tensions between the US and North Korea declined, and investors again returned to buying US assets.

After the release of good economic indicators for the United States, investors say that the interest rates are now more likely to be raised again in December, and the economic growth in the US is stable, investors say in favor of raising the interest rate and receiving encouraging news from the White House.

According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors at 93%.

In general, the fundamental factors say (at the moment) in favor of further growth in the USD/JPY.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

In the course of today's European session, the USD/JPY is trying to develop an upward trend and is making an attempt to break through the resistance level 113.10 (the top line of the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts, as well as the Fibonacci 50% correction to the pair growth since August last year and level 99.90).

While USD / JPY is trading above the key support level of 111.25 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), its positive dynamics persists. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 113.10, the target of the growth will be level 114.40 (the upper limit of the range between the levels 108.10 and 114.40).

The different focus of the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan is a powerful fundamental factor in favor of further growth in the USD / JPY.

The alternative scenario implies a return of USD / JPY to the level of 111.25 and a resumption of decline in the downlink on the weekly chart, the lower limit of which runs near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The nearest targets will be support levels of 111.00, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).

The signal for opening short positions will be the break of the short-term support level 111.90 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

Support levels: 112.15, 111.90, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Resistance levels: 113.10, 113.50, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 113.50. Stop Loss 112.90. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.50. Take-Profit 112.15, 111.90, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

XAU/USD: gold continues to fall in price against the background of dollar strengthening

23/10/2017

Current dynamics

The dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market, and gold - to decline in price amid news and talk about the appointment of President Donald Trump the new chairman of the Fed.

Among the candidates for this post is Stanford University economist John Taylor, who is more inclined to tighten monetary policy than current chairman Janet Yellen. Yes and Janet Yellen herself can count on the extension of her powers after the end of January when 4-year term of her stay at the head of the Fed expires.

If Trump suggests Janet Yellen to remain in office for a second term, it will also become a positive factor for the dollar, as Yellen consistently advocates a phased tightening of monetary policy.

Many economists believe that if the new FRS chairman is appointed, monetary policy in the US will become even more rigid. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors in more than 90%.

The index of the dollar WSJ recently added 0.22% to 87.19, while over the past week it grew by 0.77%. The ICE dollar index climbed 0.6%, to a maximum since October 6, 93.70.

The growth of the dollar is also promoted by the draft budget approved last Friday in the US Congress. "Adoption of the budget is critical for tax reform that will strengthen our economy after several years of stagnation under the previous administration," said Mitch McConnell, leader of the Republican majority in the Senate.

Waiting for tax cuts in the new economic policy of the administration of the US President Donald Trump contributes to the growth of the dollar and US stock indices, and, accordingly, the fall in gold prices.

On Friday, December gold futures on COMEX closed with a decrease of 0.7%, at 1280.50 dollars per troy ounce. The prices for gold fell on the results of five of the last six weeks.

In the future, investors will also explore new US economic data. Low inflation can change the approach of the central bank in relation to interest rates and again support the price of gold. Traders also monitor the development of geopolitical tensions, which can support gold, popular as a safe haven in periods of uncertainty. With the growth of borrowing costs, gold competes worse with more profitable assets, for example, treasury bonds, and is declining, but the demand for gold is growing with the aggravation of geopolitical tensions. Usually, against the backdrop of growing geopolitical or financial uncertainty, the price of gold, as an asset-shelter, is growing.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Since the opening of today, the pair XAU / USD is declining, and at the beginning of the European session is trading near the support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.

The pair XAU / USD broke short-term support levels of 1290.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 1285.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 1-hour chart) and develops the descending dynamics, decreasing to the support levels of 1272.00 (EMA144 and the lower border of the ascending channel on the day graph), 1265.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50%) raises the risk of the pair XAU / USD returning to the downtrend.

The signal for the resumption of growth of XAU / USD will be a breakdown of the resistance level of 1290.00. Breakdown of local resistance levels at 1305.00, 1312.00 will confirm the return of the bullish trend within the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, the upper limit of which runs near the resistance level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100%).

Support levels: 1272.00, 1265.00, 1260.00, 1248.00

Resistance levels: 1285.00, 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00


Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1272.00, 1265.00, 1260.00, 1248.00

Buy Stop 1292.00. Stop-Loss 1282.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/JPY: amid the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party

24/10/2017

Current dynamics

After the results of the parliamentary elections in Japan became known, in which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party won a convincing victory, the Japanese Nikkei stock index rose to new highs. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 13%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. The Nikkei Stock Average rose to 21810.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies, ending on a positive 16th consecutive day and setting a record for the duration of continuous growth (6 consecutive weeks).

The renewed growth of the Japanese economy and the growth of stock markets helped the ruling coalition to get more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house of parliament. Abe's victory inspired investors who are investing in the growth of the Japanese stock market, lagging behind other world stock markets. Abe supports soft monetary policy, which will promote the growth of the stock market and the reduction of the yen.

During his reign, Abe will have to decide, in particular, the issue of appointing a new manager of the Bank of Japan. In any case, economists believe that even if Abe replaces the current governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who turns 73 on Wednesday, the central bank will basically maintain an extremely soft monetary policy, including asset purchases of 6 trillion yen in year.

The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on October 31. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and "will take additional mitigation measures, if necessary".

At the same time, the dollar continues to grow in the foreign exchange market after it became known about the decision of the US Senate, which approved the draft budget from the presidential administration. The index of the ICE dollar rose to its highs from October 6, above the level of 93.70. Expectations of continued soft monetary policy in Japan and tightening of monetary policy in the US will contribute to the growth of the pair USD / JPY in the medium term.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

On Monday, trading on the pair USD / JPY opened with a gap up. Then the pair adjusted to the marks near the closing level of Friday. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the pair USD / JPY is growing again and is trading at the beginning of the European session near the level of 113.80, the opening price of trading on Monday. A strong positive momentum continues to push the pair USD / JPY up to the upper boundary of the range between the levels of 108.10 and 114.40.

While USD / JPY is trading above the key support level of 111.25 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart), its positive dynamics persists.

The alternative scenario implies a return of USD / JPY to the level of 113.10 (the top line of the descending channel on the weekly chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of the 50% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90) and the resumption of the decline in the downward channel on the weekly chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the level of 106.50 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). The immediate targets will be support levels of 111.25, 111.00, 110.15 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%).

The breakthrough of the short-term support level 112.95 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for opening of short positions.

Support levels: 113.50, 113.10, 112.95, 112.00, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 113.85. Stop Loss 113.20. Take-Profit 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Sell Stop 112.90. Stop Loss 113.40. Take-Profit 112.00, 111.25, 111.00, 110.15, 110.00, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com