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Monday, October 23rd

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish control on Monday, as continuing political uncertainty surrounding Spain and positive mood of the US dollar are limiting pair’s chances to recover its positions. Recent comments of Spanish authorities, stating that the government agreed to implement Article 155, which allows the central government to take control of Catalonia, are pointing on escalation of the conflict on the political field of Spain. These developments play the role of negative factor for the euro, thus limiting pair’s further recovery. Moreover, ongoing optimism around the greenback, triggered by the approval of the US Senate 2018 budget blueprint, which gives a greenlight to long-awaited US President D.Trump’s tax reforms, is also contributing to pair’s retreat. On the data front, today the economic calendar will remain broadly silent, so any headlines about developments in Spain and the US dollar dynamics will be key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

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Tuesday, October 24th

The EUR/USD pair regained its bullish tone and now is navigating back to its intraday highs, marked at 1.1770 spot, following positive German manufacturing data. However, further growth may appear capped, as markets are digesting latest developments from Spain. Recently Catalan government warned about the possibility of civil disobedience in response to recent comments of Spanish PM M.Rajoy, who intends to introduce direct rule to the Catalonia region. Adding to that, slight cautiousness across the market is starting to gather the pace, also limiting pair’s gains, as we are heading closer to the key event of this week – ECB monetary policy meeting, which will take place on Thursday. Market participants expect from ECB President M.Draghi detailed information about possible changes in the QE program. On the data front, nothing else is left in the economic calendar for this Tuesday, so further political developments from Spain and the US dollar price changes will remain as key driving factors for the pair during this trading session.

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Thursday, October 26th

The EUR/USD pair shows positive dynamics for the third session in a row mainly on the back of widespread retreat of the US dollar. Yesterday the pair broke through its important resistance level of 1.1800 and now is consolidating its positions above that mark, despite positive US macroeconomic data, released during the last session. The main reason of greenback’s weakness remains uncertainty regarding who will be the next head of the Fed, as the term of current Fed Chair J.Yellen ends in early 2018. However, any further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as investors took a breather ahead of the key event of this week – the ECB meeting. It is expected that the regulator won’t change its current interest rate level, while any ECB QE taper announcement will trigger a massive wave of volatility across the market. Besides the ECB meeting, today we also have pending home sales report due for release later in the NA session, however, it is expected that the market reaction will be limited in the light of more important events.

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Friday, October 27th

The EUR/USD pair came under enormously high bearish pressure during last session, having declined to the level of 1.1624, which was last seen in late July, after ECB President M.Draghi announced dovish QE program taper. The ECB reduced QE size by half and simultaneously extended its duration, thus maintaining the same level of stimulus as before and also showing that the Bank intends to retain highly accommodative monetary policy in the near future. In reference to that, Mr. Draghi also added that QE would not stop suddenly, leaving doors opened for further extension of the QE program. This outcome of the ECB meeting highly disappointed the market, forcing the pair to lose nearly 2 cents since yesterday’s highs. Adding to this, the greenback received bullish impetus, increasing its positions across the market, after the House of Representatives passed a budget bill that cleared the way for long-awaited D.Trump tax cuts. Today both data calendars will remain broadly silent, widespread market trend will remain the key driving factor for the pair, as investors are still digesting recent events.

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Thursday, November 16th

The EUR/USD pair remains within its narrow trading range of 1.1780-1.1800, as investors are expecting crucial inflation data from the Eurozone. Seems that the pair is consolidating positions after minor retreat from its monthly highs, marked yesterday in the vicinity of 1.1860, amid renewed risk appetite and expectations of fresh developments regarding the US tax reform. Today, the tax reform plan will be submitted for a vote in the House of Representatives. Leaders of the Republican Party have already expressed their support for the tax bill, which makes possible the implementation of much-awaited tax reforms by the end of this year. Besides the EU numbers and the tax vote, today we have a package of reports from the US economy, featuring Philly Fed manufacturing index and slew of secondary releases, which will help the pair to from its trajectory during the NA session.

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Friday, November 17th

The EUR/USD pair failed to sustain its overnight gains and slipped below the level of 1.1800 on the back some minor attempts of the US dollar to correct positions against its main competitors. However, strong sell-off of the US dollar is still navigating the market, so slight retreat of the pair may appear temporary. Broad weakness of the US dollar is mainly attributed to the latest headlines, saying that special counsel Robert Mueller requested President D.Trump’s campaign documents in terms of ongoing investigation of possible US President’s connection with Russia. As for the tax reform, Republicans in the House of Representatives yesterday approved the tax bill, and now it goes to the Senate for consideration. However, the market barely reacted on this positive news, as it was broadly expected and traders have managed to price in this outcome. Now all eyes remain glued to the ECB President M.Draghi’s speech due later in Europe, while the US housing data will also draw some attention in the NA session.

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Tuesday, November 21st

The EUR/USD pair consolidates its positions today, within its tight range of 1.1730-50, however, being weighed by developments on the political field of Germany. The Euro continues to receive negative pressure from latest headlines, saying that A.Merkel’s CDU/CSU party failed coalition talks, and now is preparing for re-elections. On the other side, risk negative environment supports the euro as funding currency on the back of ongoing political conflict between the US and N.Korea. Looking ahead, today we have quite light data calendar, with only US existing home sales lined up for release, so any further German political developments and US dollar price dynamics will remain key navigators for the pair during this trading session.

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Wednesday, November 22nd

The EUR/USD pair extends its recovery trend, as broad retreat of the US dollar remains key driving theme across the market on Wednesday. The main reason of greenback’s weakness remains yesterday’s cautious speech of the Fed Chief J.Yellen, where she noted that the US inflation continues to demonstrate surprisingly low growth pace. Moreover, seems that markets have already passed over recent German political developments, which is another positive factor for the pair. Today the EU data calendar won’t bring us anything important, so the US dollar price dynamics will remain the key determinant for the pair, while important fundamentals from the US and FOMC minutes will grab investors’ attention during the NA session.

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Thursday, November 23rd

The EUR/USD pair keeps positive mood for the third session in a row in wake of increased selling pressure on the US dollar. Currently the pair is trading in the area of its multiday highs at 1.1840 spot, as investors are still digesting yesterday’s dovish FOMC meeting minutes. Following FOMC meeting results, it became clear that Fed members remain concerned regarding lower inflation growth rates, which raise doubts in the further implementation of aggressive monetary policy of the Fed. Adding to this, a slew of positive German data, featuring preliminary German Manufacturing PMI numbers, also helped the pair to keep its positive tone in early Europe. Now investors await the ECB minutes for fresh momentum, while thin trading conditions will likely to keep the pair in a calm mode, as the US market remains closed due to Thanksgiving Day.

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Friday, November 24th

The EUR/USD pair consolidates its recent bullish rally in the vicinity of 1.1850 level at the last trading session of the week. The pair remains positive for the fourth session in a row, despite attempts of the US dollar to correct after its significant drawdown, triggered by dovish FOMC minutes on Wednesday. The main reason of pair’s positive mood remains the fact that concern about the political situation in Germany was somewhat eased. On the other side, the market barely reacted on yesterday’s ECB minutes, which showed that ECB members are not yet ready to name the exact end date of the QE program. Now immediate focus shifts toward German Ifo business surveys, which will remain the only important release of this day, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend to determine its further trajectory.

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