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Thursday, January 18th

The EUR/USD pair extends its rebound from weekly lows, marked earlier this session at 1.2165 spot, and has climbed above the level of 1.22. Yesterday the pair again refreshed its 3-year highs on the level of 1.2323, however, having failed to keep its positive tone and dropped for more than a cent in wake of attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions across the market. Moreover, neutral EU inflation data, seen yesterday, also failed to cheer up European bulls. On the other hand, the pair managed to regain its mildly bullish tone as ongoing speculations regarding convergence between monetary policies of the Fed and other major central banks are still weighing the greenback. On the data front, today the European economic calendar won’t offer investors anything noteworthy, while the US will release a slew of important reports during the NA session.

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Friday, January 19th

The EUR/USD pair extends its rebound from weekly lows, marked at 1.2165 spot a day before, on the back of renewed sell-off of the greenback. Recent weakness of the US dollar is mainly explained by new-fashioned market trend, caused by speculations that the Federal Reserve no longer the only central bank, which intends to raise its interest rate. However, further growth of the pair looks capped, as investors start gradually to shift their attention to the ECB interest rate decision, which is scheduled for next week. Expected that the regulator will keep its rate unchanged, while any dovish comments from the ECB President M.Draghi will notably weight on the common currency. Looking ahead, today we will have another quiet session, as both economic calendars won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so broad market trend will remain the key determinant for the pair at the end of this week.

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Monday, January 22nd

The EUR/USD pair witnessed a bullish opening gap, however, failing to extend its upside trend, on the back of attempts of the US dollar to correct higher across the market. Today returned bid tone around the greenback remains the key theme of the market, which is forcing major currencies to step lower against USD. Moreover, ongoing political drama in Germany, where heads of the key parties are still struggling to from a ruling coalition, also weighs on the common currency lately. Adding to this, further sharp moves of the pair remain capped, as investors gradually shift their attention to one of the key events of this week – ECB interest rate decision, which is scheduled for this Thursday. The key issue for speculations across the market remains whether the ECB will provide any fresh information about its QE program. Looking ahead, nothing interesting is scheduled in economic calendar for this Monday, so further US dollar price moves will determine pair’s direction during this trading session.

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Thursday, January 25th

The EUR/USD pair keeps its bid tone, having again refreshed 3-year highs at 1.2459 spot, on the back of ongoing weakness of the US dollar, caused by several factors. The latest drawdown of the greenback is mainly attributed to recent comments of US Treasury Secretary S.Mnuchin at the WEF in Davos, saying that weaker dollar is good for the US, as it relates to trade and opportunities. The market negatively reacted on this statement, accelerating greenback’s rally to the red territory. Moreover, it seems that speculations regarding possible convergence between monetary policies of the Fed and ECB also exert some pressure on the buck especially in wake of upcoming ECB meeting, which will take place later today. Market participants remain in anticipation of fresh details regarding possible changes in forward guidance, which could be implemented in early 2018, as it was mentioned in the last ECB protocols. However, Mr. Draghi’s comments during his press conference can also bring notable impetus on the common currency, as they may contain some important information about further monetary policy, and not necessarily these comments will be hawkish. Besides the ECB meeting, investors will also pay attention to the German IFO data and US new home sales numbers, which will also be able to help the pair to form its further trajectory.

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Friday, January 26th

The EUR/USD pair remains optimistic at the end of this week after volatile session, witnessed a day before. Yesterday, as it was widely expected the ECB kept its interest rate unchanged at 0% level, however, hawkish comments of the ECB President M.Draghi exerted notable support to the common currency. During the accompanying press conference, the head of the CB noted the acceleration of economic growth and positive dynamics of inflation, which moves towards its target level, as indicated by recent economic data. However, Mr. Draghi expressed some concerns regarding higher volatility on the FX-market, which can cause additional uncertainty in economic stability. Talking about rates and further changes in policy of the Bank, the head of the regulator stressed that current level of interest rate will remain unchanged for an extended period, while upcoming changes in forward guidance are still in the very early stage and need to be discussed. However, the pair lost its positive traction and eased some of its previous gains, following comments of the US President, who said that he wants to see a stronger dollar and recent comments of Treasury Secretary S.Mnuchin were misinterpreted. On the other hand, it seems that the downside momentum appeared short-lived and the pair regained a positive tone, having recovered the most part of its recent losses. Looking ahead, today the EU economic calendar will remain relatively silent, while the US will bring bloc of important data releases during the NA session, which will help the pair to form its further short-term trajectory.

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Tuesday, January 30th

The EUR/USD pair remains bearish for the second session in a row, retreating from its 3-year highs, marked on the level of 1.2537 last week, as the US dollar extends its upside correction. Seems that the greenback has finally found a support and managed to recover part of its previous losses, backed by dovish comments of US Treasury Secretary S.Mnuchin. However, further downside correction of the pair looks limited, as we are heading towards much important events of this week – FOMC meeting and NFP that brings some cautiousness among market participants. On the data front, today the EU data calendar won’t offer us anything noteworthy, while the US will release CB consumer confidence, but it is expected that the US data will not cause a significant reaction across the market, as traders are preparing for more important events of this week.

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Wednesday, January 31st

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend, having regained its positive traction after its recent retracement. Today, the key navigator across the market remains renewed softness of the US dollar, which failed to benefit from US President D.Trump’s “State of the Union” speech, where the head of state highlighted the need for reciprocal trade agreements and reiterated his commitment to renegotiate “bad deals”. Moreover, it seems that the market payed a little of attention to yesterday’s US CB consumer confidence data, which also failed to provide the US dollar with enough momentum to recover its bullish trend. Today, investors will not stay bored, as we have plenty of important events, which will help the pair to form its further trajectory. Speaking of today’s events, later the EU will publish preliminary CPI report, the US will release ADP jobs data, which is often considered as pre-NFP data, and the key event of this Wednesday will be much-awaited FOMC meeting, which hopefully will provide fresh information regarding further Fed monetary policy path.

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Thursday, February 1st

The EUR/USD pair was trading under bearish pressure during the Asian session on the back of hawkish rhetoric, sounded at the last FOMC meeting presided by Janet Yellen. As it was widely expected, the Fed left its interest rate unchanged at the 1.5% level. However, the regulator showed some confidence about its inflation outlook, expecting that the inflation will show upbeat results this year. Moreover, the Fed remained determined to raise its interest rates in case if the growth of the US economy will continue to gather pace, thus leaving the door open for a possible interest rate hike in March. However, it is not yet clear whether the regulator will adhere to a more aggressive monetary policy tightening path and will deliver three interest rate hikes this year or we will see more gradual measures of tightening. Looking ahead, today both economic calendars contain manufacturing PMI reports, which will bring fresh trading opportunities during this session, while markets have already started to shift their attention towards the NFP report, which will be released at the end of this week.

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Friday, February 2nd

The EUR/USD pair keeps its bid tone at the end of this week, staying in the region of multiyear highs near the level of 1.2500. Recent upbeat tone around the euro was sparked by talks of ECB officials that the regulator could consider ending its QE program. Moreover, weakness of the US dollar, seen during this week, despite slightly hawkish outcome of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, also helped the pair to re-enter the region of 3-year highs. Today in the agenda, we have non-farm payrolls, so all traders’ attention will remain glued to the data from the US labor market, which will expectedly help the major currency pair to form its further trajectory.

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Thursday, February 8th

The EUR/USD pair remains offered this Thursday, as US bulls are still dominating the market, sending the pair to refresh its 2-week lows at 1.2236 mark. The main driving factor across the market today remains a solid pickup in the demand for the US dollar, which continues to exert pressure on the pair this week. However, further sharp moves of the pair look unlikely, as investors are remaining in cautious stance ahead of important events, related to the BoE, and which will be able to bring some correlational impetus to the pair during European trades. Today in the economic data calendar investors won’t find anything important, except several speeches by members of both CBs, which most likely won’t attract much of attention, so US dollar price dynamics will continue to stay the key driving factor for the pair during this trading session.

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