FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 19-23, 2018

So far so good: after having a ~62% retracement prices turned higher again but still below 1.2336. Any pullback should find support above 1.2276 from now, otherwise it can become a bull trap.
My gut tells me we are not done with C yet, and 1.2240 area first before higher. 1.2336 is key for upside as you said. Also from another point of view closing 4h.(in 60min.) could give a SG. Here it is Euro 4H:
19-3-2018 г- 14-56-35.jpg
 
Last edited:
Morning guys,

So, yesterday EUR was supported by ECB debate and bringing new understanding of ECB policy. Now it is widely anticipated that ECB will close bond buyback program in this year and first rate change could come in mid 2019.
As a result yesterday price has shown solid upside motion. Still, from technical point of view, there is risk of pullback as major targets have not been met. Not only on EUR but on CAD as well.
First, we have uncompleted COP at daily chart @ 1.22 that we've discussed:
eur_d_20_03_18.png


On 4-hour chart, yes, "222" pattern has worked, but downside AB-CD was not completed, and upward action has started right from major 5/8 Fib level.
eur_4h_20_03_18.png


Now, we need to understsand whether EUR shows real upside reversal and action will continue, or it was just reaction on ECB and we still need to watch for touching of major targets. Here we could use hourly chart. As you can see, EUR has formed upside reversal swing here and is taking a shape of reverse H&S pattern. Thus, we need to keep an eye on 1.23-1.2310 support area. If EUR will be able to hold above it and start thrusting upside action - then, indeed, it could mean that upside trend is re-established. While downside breakout will make valid our weekly research and waiting of 1.22-1.2230 targets...
eur_1h_20_03_18.png
 
So far so good: after having a ~62% retracement prices turned higher again but still below 1.2336. Any pullback should find support above 1.2276 from now, otherwise it can become a bull trap.

Hi, guys, short update: we had a nice five wave advance up to the projected area followed by a sharp decline. if 1.2258 holds as support, we can count a completed decline from 1.2359 forming wave (c) of an ABC correction. For confirmation we should see a rally back to 1.2316. On the other hand, any drop below 1.2258 would negate my bullish count and would represent the resumption of the larger decline (see alt count).

PS: guys, in the past couple of weeks I've shared some useful thoughts and techniques on the Wave Principle, but I think my mission here has come to an end. I find that publishing my analyzes is unnecessary here, so I will only post it in the future if someone asks.

Good luck!

EU_180320_m5.gif
 
PS: guys, in the past couple of weeks I've shared some useful thoughts and techniques on the Wave Principle, but I think my mission here has come to an end. I find that publishing my analyzes is unnecessary here, so I will only post it in the future if someone asks.
Stag, I think our regular readers will not let you go :)
To be honest, it is very interesting to read your analysis. Besides, when two tell the same - this gives more confidence to people, who read this...
Personally I've found a lot of new things, especially I like your presentation of channel trading, this is really cool.
 
Stag, I think our regular readers will not let you go :)
To be honest, it is very interesting to read your analysis. Besides, when two tell the same - this gives more confidence to people, who read this...
Personally I've found a lot of new things, especially I like your presentation of channel trading, this is really cool.

Stag I agree entirely with Sive. Your analysis is interesting and informative. I have read much about EW theory and only from reading your posts and studying your charts over the last month or so have I started to feel that the theory may after all have a practical analysis.

Thank you very much for what you have done so far. I very much hope you will stay on the forum.
 
So, it seems that everybody agrees on Stag analysis here...
So, may be, if Stag has no objections, we ask him to place analysis at least 1-2 times per month.
Not necessary fully detailed (just to not spend too much time), but even brief view will be enough to express opinion.
This is not as difficult and this will be very useful for all of us.
Stag, what do you think?

Also, guys, I call everybody to share with your thoughts, analysis here. Especially if you see something that I could miss in my research. It is very good that Lolly, Venelin and others put their views here. Sometimes, it brings new details, gives different look.
This forum is not just for my researches. It is for communication, discussion, learning etc...
 
Morning, guys,

Yesterday we didn't have any statistics, but dollar has added some weight. Mostly it is explained by stronger expectations from today's Fed:
“Markets have taken a very hawkish turn with respect to the FOMC in recent days. One big tell is that 2-year yields and expected rates in Fed funds futures markets went up yesterday despite the absence of economic data and a seriously downbeat equity market,” wrote Steven Englander, head of research at Rafiki Capital Management.

As you can see, our suggestion was correct and Monday rally was unreliable as major targets were not hit. As a result, EUR has dropped yesterday. Now, on daily chart we have tail close, but major COP @1.22 has not been reached yet. Taking in consideration recent events, I would suggest that chances on reaching of 1.22 are not bad:
eur_d_21_03_18.png


On 4-hour chart price stands at OP. So, our first destination point has been reached. But reaction is mild and it is definitely not sufficient for long entry. Here we need clear bullish reversal pattern, guys, in our 1.22-1.2230 area. It is prefferably that EUR will reach 1.22 as well.
eur_4h_21_03_18.png


On hourly chart EUR has failed our 1.23 test on bullish market - it has dropped through it as it's no exist. Here we could get some scalp setup for trading - either B&B "Sell" Look-alike pattern, or may be even DRPO "Buy", but in general this will be time of expectation until Fed release.
Thus, right now I would say it is too early to take long position and what we really need here is clear bullish reversal pattern.
eur_1h_21_03_18.png
 
Stag, I think our regular readers will not let you go :)
To be honest, it is very interesting to read your analysis. Besides, when two tell the same - this gives more confidence to people, who read this...
Personally I've found a lot of new things, especially I like your presentation of channel trading, this is really cool.



1000% agree with sive sir
 
So, it seems that everybody agrees on Stag analysis here...
So, may be, if Stag has no objections, we ask him to place analysis at least 1-2 times per month.
Not necessary fully detailed (just to not spend too much time), but even brief view will be enough to express opinion.
This is not as difficult and this will be very useful for all of us.
Stag, what do you think?

Also, guys, I call everybody to share with your thoughts, analysis here. Especially if you see something that I could miss in my research. It is very good that Lolly, Venelin and others put their views here. Sometimes, it brings new details, gives different look.
This forum is not just for my researches. It is for communication, discussion, learning etc...

Thank you Lolly, Sive, gwynfor and you all who expressed your interest. Our brain is hardwired to make modern life more difficult. Increasing uncertainity makes our brain shift control from the rational brain to the limbic system where fear is generated. So the less information we have, the more irrational our decisions become. Since I can not watch it idle, sometimes I will come and share my ideas, I promise. ;)
 
Stag your analysis is welcome and needed. Personally I am on the sidelines because I did not trust my plan to get short on a weekly basis. Too much yo-yo for me as I don't have the bandwidth to change positions on a dime, although now I would have been sitting pretty well.
 
Back
Top