Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest from Forex.ee

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Tuesday, June 19th

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its recovery and fell to its intraday lows, located on the level of 1.1571, following broad market trend. Today one of the main drivers across the market remain the US dollar price movements, determined by the escalation of dispute between the US and China. Recall, on Friday China announced tariffs on US imports, despite the US President’s warnings of a possible retaliatory measures. However, the response from the US side was immediate and Mr. Trump announced additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. On another front, ECB President M. Draghi is expected to deliver his speech on ECB Forum in Sintra today, where markets expect to see fresh comments on the QE program and further actions of the Bank. However, according to broad market forecasts Mr. Draghi will keep his dovish tone in line with previous rhetoric, seen on the press conference last week. Besides ECB President’s speech, investors will also pay attention to the US macroeconomic data, which will be published during the NA session.

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Thursday, June 21st

The EUR/USD is losing ground for the third session in a row, now trading in the region of its 3-week lows, marked in the region of 1.1530 earlier this week. It seems that the US dollar regained today its bullish tone, forcing its major counterparts to step lower. Moreover, recently emerged uncertainty on the political field of Germany regarding immigrants issue is another negative factor for the common currency, which is pushing the pair in the south direction. As for the data, today the EU economic calendar won’t offer us anything noteworthy, while the US has prepared Philly manufacturing index, which will be able to bring some volatility during the NA session. In addition, today investors will also pay attention to the BoE meeting, as in the case of significant volatility the pair will receive some correlational impetus.

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Friday, June 22nd

The EUR/USD pair remains positive on Friday, having recovered from the region of its June lows, marked yesterday on the level of 1.1509. It seems that US bulls have lowered its pressure on the market, allowing the major currencies to recover part of its previous losses. The main reason of greenback softness can be called diminishing tensions in the US-China trade conflict, as the White House seeks to restart negotiations with Beijing, before the conflict overgrow to a trade war. Moreover, it seems that the common currency ignored today’s mixed data on German PMI and kept its positive tone. On the data front, today both economies won’t offer anything interesting to investors, so the US dollar price dynamics and widespread sentiment will continue to form pair’s further trend.

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Tuesday, June 26th

The EUR/USD pair keeps its positive tone today, having spiked the level of 1.1700. The ongoing upside trend of the pair can be mainly explained by weakness of the US dollar, triggered by recent talks that the White House is considering to limit Chinese investment in US technologies. In addition, yesterday US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin commented on the situation, indicating that the forthcoming restrictions would be applied not only to China, but also to all countries that are trying to steal US technology. These comments have intensified fears of a global trade war, thereby sending the US currency lower against its major rivals. However, further gains of the pair looks fragile as investors’ attention shifts towards the EU Summit, where the migration issue is expected to take center stage. But today the EU economic calendar will remain silent, while the US will publish only CB consumer confidence data, so broad market trend will remain the key driver for the pair during this trading session.

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Wednesday, June 27th

The EUR/USD pair trades today in the north direction after yesterday’s retreat, having refreshed its intraday highs in the region of 1.1670. On Tuesday, the pair lost its bullish momentum and corrected lower after three days at a profit on the back of renewed buying interest around the US dollar. However, rally of the US dollar was short-lived and the pair regained its positive tone. Moreover, significantly improved demand for safety due to ongoing battle of the US against the rest of the world also offers some support to the common currency in the middle of this week. In the day ahead, investors will focus their attention on the slew of data from the US economy, while the EU data calendar remains empty. However, widespread sentiment will remain the key driver for the pair on Wednesday.

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Friday, June 29th

The EUR/USD pair witnessed a volatile session in Asia, having jumped for 100 pips and refreshed its intraday highs on the level of 1.6666. On Friday, 28 EU leaders reached an agreement on migration issue after lasting talks, which implies that EU countries can accept immigrants on a voluntary basis. This outcome has eased concerns over migration issue in Germany, however, Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that German government still has a lot to do to close the question. In addition, bearish dynamics of the US dollar also collaborates to pair’s recovery on Friday. Today traders will focus their attention on the EU CPI data and second round of the EU Summit, while the US data calendar won’t offer us anything relevant at the end of the week.

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Monday, July 2nd

The EUR/USD pair failed to keep its positive tone, facing resistance in the region of 1.1690, on the back of Germany’s political uncertainty. According to the latest news reports, Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer threatened to leave his position, as he is unsatisfied with Mrs. Merkel's solutions on immigration issue. This statement put in question current governing coalition and further politics of Mrs. Merkel, thus dramatically increasing tensions surrounding the German political climate. Moreover, improved demand for the US currency is another underlying theme across the market, which is putting pressure on the pair at the start of this week. As for the data, today both sides will offer investors manufacturing PMIs, which will be able to determine pair’s further direction, while any developments on the political field of Germany will also be able to bring some impetus to the pair.

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Tuesday, July 3rd

The EUR/USD pair regained its positive tone after yesterday’s drawdown, having reentered the area of 1.1650. Today’s recovery can be mostly explained by a deal on immigration, reached within German Chancellor Angela Merkel governing coalition. As it became known, Mrs. Merkel and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer reached a compromise on immigration issue. Therefore, ruling coalition remains safe for now, as Mr. Seehofer dropped his threat to resign. Moreover, persisting bearish dynamics of the US dollar remains one of the key driving factor across the market that also offers some support to the pair this Tuesday. As for the data, nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for today, except several second-tier data reports, so the pair will keep following broad market trend for any direction.

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Wednesday, July 4th

The EUR/USD pair is trading in the north direction in the middle of this week, getting closer to the level of 1.1700. Today the main driver across the FX-space remains ongoing downside correction of the US currency after its notable gains, witnessed last month. Moreover, it seems that investors positively reacted on news that EU diplomats are considering a start of negotiations with big car producers on lowering tariffs on vehicles to avoid a full-blown trade war. In the day ahead, we expect a quiet trading session, as the economic calendar won’t offer us anything important, while the US market will remain closed due to Independency Day celebration.

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Thursday, July 5th

The EUR/USD pair remains positive this Thursday, having rallied for almost 50 pips and spiked the level of 1.1700 in early Europe. The latest gains of the pair can be mainly explained by news reports, citing that ECB members see a rate hike at the end of 2019 as too late. Moreover, ongoing retreat of the US dollar against its major rivals, backed by the looming US-China tariffs deadline, also offers some support to the pair this week. Looking ahead, today the EU data calendar will remain silent, so investors will pay attention to US releases and FOMC minutes, which will be able to spark some volatility during the NA session.

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