฿ Bitcoin BTC 06 February - 06 August 2018 Technical update

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Hi Sive-

Thanks for the analysis.

I noticed that your focus is on when to long BTC, what about areas where to short it.

I mean do you think that there are some areas that we can focus on to go short (short term bounce) or you think it’s more likely that we continue the drop from here.

I would like to share with you this view and get your feedback

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nV7OTwdb/

Thx again

Hi Ahmed,

well, this is not quite so, because month ago, when we've talked about first bearish signs - we discussed possibility to go short.
Here I do not mention chances to go long, I just say that it is not time yet to go long :), since we anticipate deeper action.

Sometimes we show good setups on intraday charts, when we see it, but this Monday there was nothing valuable. Besides, our analysis here mostly is based on daily chart and we make it once per week, so, intraday scale is too small. So, we're mostly focused on direction and precise levels, but how and when to take position, if chances will come in the middle of the week - stands upon the trader :)

As you can see - your analysis has worked nice. So, no problems with it. ;)
 
BTC/USD 19.06.2018

In the bitcoin we do have clear and good fib levels which I believe the market will show significant reaction at these levels. So I would like to post an update.

Looking at our weekly the stop grabber sell signal has played out. We have COP+ OP cluster at 4700k-4800k (for accurate levels I would suggest looking at bitmex) if the market wants to move lower this zone will be the line in the sand. We can see a big spike but I dont expect a weekly close below this zone. So for those who are asking me where to long this market safely; I already placed my buy limit order.
BTCUSDWeekly.png


Now days the liquidty has decreased and the market has been manipulated.. I started to see many waiting to see 4500 k in bitcoin. So who knows the big guys may change the direction and take the market to new highs instead of new lows.

Here is the daily resistance levels that we should be keeping an eye on them. The levels are clear. The daily trend has turned up. We should be monitoring it for the next 3 days for dynamic pressure.

If the market moves higher before making any new lows 7050-7150 will be the first resistance. We can expect a shallow retracement there and then abc up move to our next resıstance at 7650. We have gap at CME futures at 7650 too. I dont expect the market break this zone easily. The journey to 4700 can start from this level if the market cant see closes on it.

BTCUSDDailyres.png


Happy Trading..
 
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Market showing weak dynamic pressure on daily buy. Before reaching out our target level around 4700 there is another XOP+ OP cluster support stands around 5250 as a good spot for a scalp trade.

BTCUSDDaily.png
 
Hi Sive,
It seems that you are having your charts excluding the weekend (where bitcoin are actively traded). That maybe clarify why yesterday’s price action is not reflected into your analysis.

Although I agree with the general analysis, yesterday might change your views a little bit. The price actually dropped below 5870, cleared the stops and reached 5700 with a high volume. Now the daily candle looks like a big hammer. Would this change your short term analysis a bit?

I’ve attached a picture of this weekend behavior and appreciate it if you take a deeper look at it.
 

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Hi Sive,
It seems that you are having your charts excluding the weekend (where bitcoin are actively traded). That maybe clarify why yesterday’s price action is not reflected into your analysis.

Although I agree with the general analysis, yesterday might change your views a little bit. The price actually dropped below 5870, cleared the stops and reached 5700 with a high volume. Now the daily candle looks like a big hammer. Would this change your short term analysis a bit?

I’ve attached a picture of this weekend behavior and appreciate it if you take a deeper look at it.

Indeed, there are some signs of W&R on intraday chart. Barely it will impact on long-term view, but it could trigger upside bounce within 1-2 sessions. H&S pattern is forming on houlry :
Your new TVC (3).png
 
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