AceTraderFx Apr 24: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY, NZD/USD

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AceTraderFx Aug 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

06 Aug 2014 02:39GMT

USD/JPY - .... The greenback went through a roller-coaster session on Tue. Although price found renewed buying at 102.46 in Asia n climbed steadily in Europe due to recovery in the Nikkie future, price then hit session high of 102.93 after the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. data (ISM non-manufacturing PMI n factory orders), active cross-buying in yen due to risk aversion due to sell off in U.S. equities on renewed geopolitical tension in the Ukraine pressured price sharply lower to 102.48ahead of NY close b4 staging a minor recovery to 102.64 in Australia.

Today, range trading is envisaged n intra-day broad-based strength in the greenback suggests mild upside bias remains. However, do pay attention to the U.S. trade balance at 12:30GMT as market forecast for the deficit figure to widen to $44.7 bln vs prev. reading of $44.4 bln. A narrowing of the deficit may give dlr a lift. Bids are noted at 102.40-35 with stops below 102.30, however, more buying interest is reported at 102.10-00. On the upside, offers are placed at 102.70/75 n then 102.90-00 with stops touted above 103.00.


Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand HLFS unemployment rate, UK BRC shop price index, Japan’s leading indicator, German industrial orders, Swiss CPI, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, Canada’s import, export and trade balance.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

13 Aug 2014 00:42GMT

USD/JPY - ....BoJ EconMin Amari statement:
'see no immediate need for extra budget but govt, BoJ have always said ready to take action to support economy as needed;
when we say we will take appropriate action, that means we are ready to take whatever means available;
economy will undoubtedly make pretty big rebound in July-Sept, expect outlook to brighten;
Japan firms' shift to overseas production, weak demand in Asia partly behind soft Japanese exports.'

'economic recovery intact after weak GDP;
GDP surge ahead of tax hike and reactionary slump is "normal" response when compared with past cases of sales tax hike;
PM Abe will make final decision on if to proceed with second sales tax hike looking at various data ahead;
positive cycle of corporate earnings, wages and capex need to remain in place for economy to rebound in July-September.'

Highlights of BoJ meeting minutes:
- Most BOJ members said BOJ to keep QQE as long as necessary, said QQE having desired effects.
- Most BOJ members said BOJ to examine risks, adjust policy as needed.
- Some members cautious on achieving 2% price target.
- One member said inflation expectation have not risen.

According to minutes of the July policy meeting, several of the Bank of Japan's board members expressed a more cautious view on the economic outlook to reach a sustained 2% price stability target by fiscal 2015.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Aug 2014 02:36GMT

USD/JPY - .... The greenback climbed at Tokyo open after finding support at 102.40/41 in Australia and easily penetrated yesterday's high of 102.54 to 102.66 in Tokyo morning as gain in the Nikkei following yesterday's rally in U.S. n major European stock markets (last seen up 80 points to 15,294) boosted risk appetite.

Intra-day broad-based gains in Asian equities suggest buying dlr on dips is the way to go. Bids are noted at 102.30-20 and then 102.05/00 with mixture of bids n stops located just below 101.80. On the upside, offers at 102.60-70 are being absorbed but more are are placed at 102.80-90 and then 103.00 with stops emerging just above July's peak at 103.15.

Investors should pay attention to U.S. weekly jobless claims later today at 12:30GMT. Economists are forecasting a rise of 6K to 295K for the week ended Aug. 9, however, recent low claims levels show the U.S. labor market is strengthening.

Thursday will see the release of New Zealand's business PMI and retail sales, U.K. RICS housing survey, Australia's Westpac leading economic index, China's CB leading economic index, Germany's GDP, Swiss producer and import price, eurozone GDP and inflation, Canada's new house prices, U.S. import prices, exports prices and jobless claims.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

15 Aug 2014 01:57GMT

USD/JPY - .... This morning statement from Japan FinMin Aso, quote:
'moderate economic recovery is continuing;
will closely watch economic data from July-Sept before deciding whether to raise sales tax next year;
sluggish growth in money supply means economic recovery is not strong enough.'

Last night despite dlr's brief retreat from Asian high at 102.66 to 102.32 in NY morning after the release of more than expected U.S. jobless claims which came in at 311,000 versus economists' forecast of 295,000.
However, renewed buying interest there lifted price again to 102.54 in New York.

Friday will see the release of U.K. GDP, Canada's manufacturing sales, U.S. PPI, NY Fed manufacturing, overall net capital flows, foreign treasury buy, industrial and manufacturing output, capacity utilization and University of Michigan sentiment.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

The greenback edged back to 102.44 in Tokyo morning after Fri's pretty sharp selloff fm 102.72 to 102.14 (on buying of yen due to risk aversion) as tension in Ukraine eased a little. German Foreign Minister said earlier today that 'the aim remains to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine' after holding talks with the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, n France in Berlin on Sunday.

As market sentiment remains fragile n events in Russia-Ukraine at the weekend continue to capture market focus, selling dlr on recovery is favoured but position player shud look to buy on dips as Aug's bottom at 101.51 shud continue to hold n bring rebound due to dlr's broad 'consolidative' outlook. Offers are noted at 102.50-70 with stops emerging abv 102.80, whilst bids are placed at 102.10-00 with mixture of bids n stops at 101.80-70.

On the data front, U.S. will release the NAHB housing market index at 14:00GMT with forecast to remain unchanged at 53 in Aug. Looking ahead, Federal Reserve will release their latest meeting minutes on Wed n his week's major focus wud be the annual meeting of top central bank officials n economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming fm August 21 to 23.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

19 Aug 2014 00:03GMT

NZD/USD - .... Statement from NZ FinMin Bill English said:
'NZ economy still growing robustly, outlook not changed significantly from budget;
New Zealand govt surplus seen at NZ$297 mln in 2014/15 vs NZ$372 mln in budget;
NZ has limited fiscal headroom for higher spending, tax cuts, spending restraint will remain;
NZ national govt to hold to economic/fiscal policies, tax cuts possible when room to do so;
NZ does not need tax hikes nor sharply higher govt spending in parties' election promises.'

New Zealand Treasury publishes pre-election fiscal update -
'budget surplus forecasts over next four years trimmed because of slower economic growth;
net debt peaking 26.8 pct of gdp in 14/15 (budget 26.4 pct);
slower reduction seen;
NZ net debt seen below 20 pct of gdp by 2021 (budget 2020), superannuation payments to resume then;
NZ debt management office reaffirms budget forecast of NZ$8 bln bond issuance in 2014/15;
NZ economic momentum is slowing, as terms of trade ease, growth forecasts trimmed;
NZ govt tax take expected to be slightly less than budget forecasts as growth slows;
2015 march yr GDP +3.8 pct (budget 4 pct);
reaffirms later year forecasts; inflation 2015 March yr 1.7 pct (budget 1.8 pct); 2016 at 2.4 pct (budget 2.5 pct).'


Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand's producer prices, RBA meeting minutes, eurozone current account, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, U.S. building permits, core CPI, housing starts, Redbook and Cleveland Fed CPI.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views AUD/USD

20 Aug 2014 02:39GMT

AUD/USD - ... The Aussie chopped around after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' testimony b4 the House of Standing committee ahead of Asian open, short-term specs were selling the AUD after NY close but when Stevens did not jawbone the Aussie lower, shorts covered their positions and lifted price on 0.9318.

Below were Stevens testimonies released on Reuters :

-remains view that on most metrics would be surprising if A$ remains so high
-risk of A$ fall is under appreciated
-puzzled why u.s. dollar is not higher given u.s. is recovering
- intervention on A$ part of tool kit if thought useful
-have not considered intervention useful so far
-would not want to give advance warning if did consider intervention
-economy does not need draconian fiscal tightening right now
-budget problems are in the medium term
-recent reading on unemployment was a weak one, difficult to interpret
RBA's Kent says unemployment not to fall sustainably until late 2015, early 2016

Stevens continued - A$ high in part because global capital finds Australia attractive
-has not thought about raising rates
-says expects fairly subdued result for Q2 QDP
-have not felt that intervention would work at current A$ levels
-would consider lower rates if thought it would be helpful
-but does not think interest rates the answer right now


Wednesday will see the release of RBA’s Stevens testimony, Japan’s exports, imports and trade balance, Australia’s Westpac leading economic index, Japan’s all industry index, Germany’s producer prices, BOE’s meeting minutes and CBI trend, Canada’s wholesale trade and U.S. FOMC minutes.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

21 Aug 2014 02:33GMT

USD/JPY - ..... The greenback maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo morning following yesterday's mildly hawkish FOMC minutes, price easily penetrated NY high at 103.85 at Tokyo open n climbed to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak of 103.96 as gain in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment.

As the follow-through buying from Asian traders indicates upside bias remains, suggesting buying dlr on dips is the way to go, however, investors should stay alert ahead of the daily key res at 104.13 (Apr 4 high) as only a firm rise above there would indicate an 'upside break' of 7-month broad range of 100.76-104.13 has taken place n yield further headway twd 105.00 later this month. Bids are noted at 103.70/60 n then 103.50/45 with stpps emerging below 103.30. On the upside, offers are placed at 104.00 n with mixture of offers n stops located at 104.10-20.

Pay attention to a slew of U.S. economic data starting with weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales. Another key event is the 3-day annual Kansas City Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Chair Janet Yellen & ECB Governor Mario Draghi will both speak in the event on Fri.

USD/JPY - .... U.S. dollar strengthened to a 4-1/2 month high at 103.75 versus the Japanese yen after the release of FOMC minutes. Bids are now located at 103.60-50 and more at 103.30 with stops only seen below 103.20. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 103.85-95 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 104.00 option barrier.

Thursday will see the release of Japan's manufacturing PMI, China's HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss trade balance, France's Markit manufacturing and service flash PMI, Germany's Markit manufacturing flash PMI, eurozone's manufacturing and service flash PMI, U.K. PSNCR and retail sales, U.S. jobless claims and Markit manufacturing PMI, eurozone consumer confidence, U.S. Philly Fed business index and existing home sales. The 3-day annual Federal Reserve Bank symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins on Thursday.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY

22 Aug 2014 02:31GMT

USD/JPY -.... Despite the release of a slew of upbeat U.S. economic figures on Thur, investors shrugged off the data n decided to take profit ahead of Fri's Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole as market anticipated that she will deliver dovish remarks to complement the hawkish FOMC minutes in order to convey to markets that even though rates will rise, monetary authorities will make sure they do so gradually. Dlr retreated after rising to a fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 103.96 in Asia yesterday and then briefly weakened to 103.60 in NY morning b4 climbing back to 103.95 in Tokyo morning on renewed cross-selling in yen due to increase of risk appetite (S&P 500 climbed to its intra-day all-time high of 1,991.45 n closed at record high of 1,990.15 on Thur).

As Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average is also heading for a 10th day of gains - the longest winning streak in 26 years (N225 is currently trading up 19 points to 15,605), therefore, buying dlr on dips for a re-test of daily key res at 104.13 (Apr 4 high) is the way to go, however, sharp gain abv there is unlikely to be seen as layers of selling interest on profit-taking are noted up fm 104.10 to 104.40. On the downside, bids are located at 103.70-60 n then 103.50 with stops emerging below 103.30.

Yesterday the greenback stabilised after retreating briefly to 103.60 after the release of a series of U.S. economic data, including exiting home sales, leading index, Philly Fed. Bids are now located at 103.65-60 whilst offers are tipped below Asian fresh 4-1/2 month peak at 103.96 with mixture of offers n stops seen at 104.00.


Friday will see the release of Canada's CPI and retail sales. Investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of a keynote speech at 14:00GMT by Fed Chair Janet Yellen who may provide her take on the latest data on labor markets at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

 

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AceTraderFx Aug 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr followed its recent winning streak in NZ today and 'gapped' higher above Friday's high of 104.19 to 104.49 as comments from Fed chief n BoJ governor during the Federal Reserve annual symposium further highlighted diverging monetary policies between the 2 central banks, however, offers just below 104.50 ltd intra-day gain there so far n price retreated to 104.13 in Tokyo morning.

On Fri, Fed's Chair Janet Yellen said at the Kansas City Federal Reserve annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with the observation that conditions in labor markets have outperformed Fed forecasts n that if this continues, the Fed funds target rate could rise earlier and more rapidly than expected.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the Jackson Hole gathering on Sat that the central bank may have to pursue its aggressive monetary policy easing for 'some time' to fully vanquish deflation.

As dlr's 'gap-up' open today indicates bias remains to the upside, buying dlr on dips is the way to go. Demand from various accounts is noted at 104.10-00 with mixture of bids n stops located at 103.85/80 n 103.70-60.
On the upside, offers are placed at 104.40-50 n then 104.65/70 with stops emerging just above 104.80.
Investors should pay attention to the release of Markit U.S. service PMI n new home sales at 13:45GMT n 14:00GMT respectively. Market forecasts the Service PMI in Jul to come lower at 59.5 whist new home sales to increase to 0.430 million units in Jul from 0.406 million units in previous month.