Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee. Look to the future with us!

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Many traders, especially beginners, are constantly forced to spend a lot of time to earn a profit on Forex market. It takes a lot of effort analyze and forecast the market situation, as well. To make a qualitative analysis it is necessary to have specialized knowledge and experience to track the many factors which affect the movement of currencies.

The purpose of analysis from the European broker, Forex.ee – is to assist traders with analyzing the events on Forex, and with predicting the possible movements of currency pairs in the future.

We expect that the analytical information provided by Forex.ee will allow traders to make more informed and better decisions for their trading.

Analysis is done weekly, every Saturday.

Weekly Analysis includes analyzing the events of a bygone week and forecasting the various currency pairs for the next week.

Benefits of Analysis from European broker Forex.ee:

1. Analysis is developed by experts of the Forex.ee analytical department. They are professionals which have experience in successful Forex trading.
2. Analysis is based on fundamental and technical analysis of the Forex market.
3. For illustrative purposes, the analytical forecasts are accompanied by graphs and charts.

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The first issue of Analysis from Forex.ee is held on 7 June 2014.

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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №1 from 07/06/2014

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The European Central Bank lowered the main refinancing rate to 0.15 percent, while analysts predicted a rate cut to 0.10 percent and the deposit rate dropped below zero to -0.10 percent. This decision on the reduction was expected as early as last month, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the Governing Council was "comfortable in act for the next time," but first they would like to see the updated economic forecasts from their own bank employees.

The volatility market was quite high in the Forex. The single currency fell immediately after the interest rates decrease announcement, and continued to fall during a speech at the press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi, in which he said that the European Central Bank would suspend SMP sterilization, expand the fixed interest rate distribution and consider some other unconventional measures, if necessary.

Trading recommendations

The euro/dollar sharply dropped on news, cutting off all possible target matrix decrease, and whirled with the strong growth momentum. Its capacity is adequate for the trend continuation development. Today we consider the possibility of correcting this pulse at least to the middle, as a maximum - to the level 1.3560. We regard it as a "flag". Next, we consider the continuing growth trend possibility to 1.4100.


Pound

In contrast to the European Central Bank, the Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged, as indeed expected, as the Bank of England was under less pressure to take any monetary policy form. The key interest rate was left at 0.5 percent by the Bank of England monetary policy committee, where it was set since 2009.

Now the most important for market participants is the Bank of England meeting minutes publication, which will give a better idea for the UK economy current state assessment to the Bank of England in relation to the sterling strength. It will also be interesting to see whether the information provided by the Committee on monetary policy with respect to the period over is going to tighten the policy and reduce its current asset purchase program, which currently stands at 375 billion pounds.

Trading recommendation

The pound/dollar attempted to expand the upward consolidation. Today we consider the possibility of decreasing and expanding this range down to 1.6655 level overlap. Next, we consider the possibility of a reversal structure for the uptrend continuation.

Yen

Pressure on the yen was influenced by the Japanese Finance Minister Azumi Joon words that the G7 leaders agreed to cooperate to "prevent sudden changes in the exchange rates."

Trading recommendation

The dollar/yen broke the minimum to decrease the momentum and continues to trade lower. Today we consider the waves to the level 100.50 working out.


Gold

The gold market is more than 10 years remains at a steady uptrend. In order to estimate the most probable market prospects, it is necessary to understand the reasons for the major players to buy and to sell the precious metal.

According to statistics from World Gold Council in 2013 about 60% of demand was provided by jewelry manufacturers, investment demand was 20%, 10% of the gold was used for industrial purposes, and 10% of the total was bought central banks.

It can be concluded that the greatest influence on the gold market have jewelers and speculators, while in the least affect the central banks and the industrial consumers influence the metal price. Note that the most volatile is just speculative demand, which in 2013 fell by 51% compared with 2012.

Trading recommendation

Gold in the consolidation process offers the opportunity to test below the level 1258. Next we consider the regular structure development with working to decrease the level 1208.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №2 from 14/06/2014


Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The Euro received the support at the end of the week after which rose against the U.S. dollar by the end of the last day for the first time this week.

The current volumes are unchanged while gradually they are moving down. By itself, the buying power has no special support, and this may lead to a new rebound from the current resistance level 1.3590. While the level retest will be based on a fundamental data review.

Trading recommendations

If we do not have the resistance 1.3590 breakdown up we can expect the downward trend formation. The potential decrease targets are the following marks: 1.3520, 1.3480.

The growth target is 1.3676.


Pound

The unhurried British pound growth against the dollar during trading on Thursday, could develop the strong recovery that led to "the British currency" get extra profit on the general results of the week.

In addition, the pound managed to consolidate above 1.6815 downward trend line, as well as two levels of resistance presented by marks 1.6835 and 1.6910.

Trading recommendations

We expect a stop near the strong resistance 1.6990. Then we believe that the pound will consolidate.

Yen

The Japanese currency rose again against the dollar, as well as the closed session on Thursday at a fairly decent "profit." The trading tone was supported by the Japanese stock market fall while the decrease in U.S. Treasuries yields "added" extra swagger to "bears" who lowered its instrument to support the way in which they were at the end of last month.

On its regular meeting the Bank of Japan didn’t plan any policy changes. Besides the Japanese central bank representatives made statements almost identical to those that had been announced due to previous similar meetings.

Trading recommendations

The price approach to the mark 102.00 may lead to the new consolidation.

The potential bounce target is the support level 101.45.


Gold

Some investors increased their positions in the gold as a safe haven amid the growing conflict in Iraq. Islamist activists continued armed attacks in the country, occupying a large part of the north-west, including the second largest city of Mosul, and moved south to Baghdad.

The metal managed to get the support within 1252 dollars per ounce, after which it went from this level and began to actively grow to the mark 1263.

Trading recommendations

After consolidation in the area 1265.00-1300.00 we expect a trend reversal and a new fall down towards to 1200.00. Only a little consolidation above 1300.00 will improve the gold medium-term prospects opening the way for the resistance 1330.00.


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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №3 from 21/06/2014


Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The U.S. dollar continues to be weak, as the Federal Reserve failed to give a more "hawkish" statement notes in the FOMC post on Thursday. The continuing "pigeon" position of the Federal Reserve System, as well as Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen are pushing investors to sell the U.S. dollar.

Trading recommendations

The support area 1.3583/02 for the euro remains the key one, and the "bears" need to close below it to confirm a false break above the moving average.

Pound

The UK fundamental data was slightly better than the one from the United States, as differences in the BoE monetary policy and the Fed helped the pound growth. The Federal Reserve stated that inflation would not cause the interest rates growth in the U.S. in the near future, at the same time Chairman of the BoE said that the interest rate would be raised even before the Forex market participants expect. Therefore, we should expect a further pair upward movement.

Trading recommendations

The reached maximum of 5.5 years 1.7062 is unlikely to last very long. The fact that the pair closed the trading above 1.70 just confirmed a bullish sentiment. The break above 1.7062 would open the way to 1.7115.

Yen

The yen has kept its position against its main competitors in the light of the stock markets correction because of fears that the escalating violence in Iraq could lead to disruption of oil supply, resulting in the growth demand for safe assets.

From the technical standpoint the USD/JPY remains in the same range. The support is at 101.60/70 and 100.80/70. The below support is at 99.50. The resistance is at 102.80, up to 103.00 and 103.40. The stronger level is at 104.30/80.

Trading recommendations

The price continues to be in a narrow range, continuing to narrow its volatility.
We recommend starting the search the sale points with the targets 101.00-100.50.

Gold

The gold price growth driver was stimulated by the situation in Iraq. As a result, not only the gold showed a growth, but the oil price started to rise, as Iraq is one of the largest oil producing countries in the world.

On Thursday, the futures price of gold rose to $1,300 an ounce for the first time over the last month, after the U.S. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that her agency would keep the interest rates low for another long period of time.

Trading recommendations

The next drop risks will be preserved until the gold is located below the 1296 dollars per ounce. This point break might weaken the bearish sentiment and take the pair beyond 1308 dollars per ounce.


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Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website ECN Forex Broker with Low Spreads | Forex.ee

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №4 from 28/06/2014


Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The number of initial jobless claims fell the second week in a row, but the decline was slightly less than expected. The number of initial claims fell by 2 thousand to 312 thousand last week, while everyone expected the decline by 4 thousand. The euro was down traded amid speculation that the ECB may continue to lower the rates, although the assessment of the previous impact requires 6-9 months.

The Euro grew against the dollar. EUR/USD was trading at 1.3650. The pair has found the support at 1.3574. The resistance is at 1.3652.

Trading recommendations

The euro/dollar continues its growth. We expect a growth 1.3650 and a consolidation after. The pair is likely to test the level of 1.3670. Next we expect a decline back to the level of 1.3624. Further on the growth to the level 1.3800 may be continued.


Pound

The Bank of England announced that it would limit the mortgage from October to people taking 85% of the housing cost, they could not borrow an amount exceeding more than 4.5 times their income. The regulator also announced a new test for the bank feasibility, borrowers will have to prove that they can pay off their mortgage, even if interest rates rise to 3% from 1%.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to grow. We expect the pair to work out the level of 1.7115. Further on, we expect a correction. Still the trend is directed upward and the goal is at the level of 1.7730, so the further growth structure is not regulated. The market can go straight to the target, instead of developing the correction.

Yen

On Friday, the U.S. dollar fell to one-month low against the yen after the Japanese moderate data release while the other day the USA population expenditure disappointing data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep the interest rates for a long time.

The pair reached 101.31, its lowest level since May 21, and subsequently consolidated at 101.39, having lost 0.32%.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued. The pair will work out the level of 101.00 soon. Further on we expect a bounce to the level of 101.70.


Gold

June is coming to the end and the market showed an increase of price for precious metals, particularly we see a strong growth of gold and silver.

The main factors that supported the growth were the statistical indicators for the U.S. economy worsening (in particular, they have been revised downwards the GDP growth in Q1. 2014), as well as increasing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Trading recommendations

Gold forms a consolidation range. We see a triangle. We expect the development of the fifth triangle structure. The main target is the level of 1208.

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[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №5 from 05/07/2014

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The European newsflow has not shown any important information, the market may pay attention to the industry orders in Germany in May – we expect the decline of 0.8% m/m and 6.0% y/y vs. 3.1% m/m, 6.3% y/y earlier. We believe that the euro should not wait support from the fundamental data and sales may continue on the emotions of the coming week.

Trading recommendations

Euro dollar, after falling fundamental background forms the consolidation range. Today the main scenario is a decrease from the channel. We expect the growth new wave continuation to break the level of 1.3650 and working out the level of 1.3700. We expect the third wave growth formation to the level of 1.3790.

Pound

The pound returned the previous week loss, probably due to the fact that the manufacturing sector and construction indices, as the assumptions about the economic growth in the 2nd quarter have not changed, moreover the new orders and an employment showed the growth.

Trading recommendations

The pair extended consolidation range and went down to break the level of 1.7176. We may consider the range expanding to the level of 1.7245. Next, we assume the return to the level of 1.7176. Then we expect the uptrend again.

Yen

The Japanese currency was under the pressure due to lower demand for safer assets after the firm economic data publication from China and the United States. In China, the non-manufacturing activity index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Ltd. rose in June to 53.1 against 50.7 in May.

Trading recommendations

The pair has attempted to continue the growth due to the pattern continuation. The main scenario is the lowering to the level of 101.00. Today we consider the channel reducing structure development for the growth breakdown and reversal pattern development. One of its parts can cause another price bounce up to the level of 102.30.

Gold

Gold futures went down during the last Asian session. In the division of the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex, Gold futures for August were traded at 1.320,10 per troy ounce falling at 0.04%.

The gold is likely to find the support at the resistance of 1.309.40 and 1.334.90.

Trading recommendations

We expect the consolidation and the metal going down to the level of 1208.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website ECN Forex Broker with Low Spreads | Forex.ee

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №6 from 12/07/2014

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

EUR/USD clearly sorted out with its "comfort zone" and therefore always comes back to the area of 1.36 after growth attempts. The fact that the industrial production data in France and Italy do not reach the predictive values just confirms that we can hope only for Germany now. The German inflation data may become the reason for the EUR/USD strengthening with the immediate goal at around 1.3640. The chances that the pair leaves the range 1.36-1.3650 are small.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD finished the wave of growth and is being corrected now. Today we consider the possibility of the next growth wave to the level of 1.3650.


Pound

The GBP/USD shows lesser and lesser reasons for a growth giving the concerns to think that the British economy growth has reached its peak levels. The trade balance report showed a deficit increase to 9.2 billion pounds and together with all previous data updating the rate came out to 1 billion worse than it was forecasted. That's a painful blow to the pound pride and a good reason to the BoE to reemphasize the unstable economic recovery. There will be the trading in the range while the pair holds above 1.71, still the break below may open the way to 1.70.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to trade within a narrow consolidation range, ignoring all the dollar attempts to strengthen. The main scenario is to continue the growth trend up to 1.7300.


Yen

The USD/JPY is still under pressure, the fundamental reports do not impact the pair any more. We recommend watching the U.S. bond yields dynamics as they both are very well correlated with each other - that fact can be seen in the Q3 forecast. The support level of 100.75 could become a good support point, as the pair repeatedly bounced upwards from it in the past.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to develop the decrease structure to the level of 101.00. Further on we expect a recovery to the level of 101.70. Then we believe the pair to continue its falling to 100.50. In this case we forecast the third wave of falling below 101.70.

Gold

The Gold futures rose during the Asian session. In the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division the Gold futures for August are traded at 1.337.90 per ounce. The gold is likely to find the support at 1.312.10 and 1.346.80.

The USD index which tracks the greenback dynamics versus the six other major currencies basket changed by 0.03% and is at 80.19 now.

Trading recommendations

We expect the decrease to the level of 1328. Further on we expect a consolidation which will be followed by a reversal pattern and the beginning of the trend downward. The target is 1208


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website ECN Forex Broker with Low Spreads | Forex.ee

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №7 from 19/07/2014

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The U.S. dollar is stable against the euro. At the same time, the European currency has strengthened its position slightly against the yen, having fallen in price to the lowest point on the eve of February amid the investors’ aversion in reserve assets. The investors are awaiting the macroeconomic data from the United States. The University of Michigan will publish the consumer confidence index.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3480. Still the pair shall permanently grow to 1.3570 before it continued to fall.

Pound

The macroeconomic calendar does not have a lot of publications - the U.S. presented the preliminary data on a consumer confidence index in July from the University of Michigan, as well as the leading indicators index in June.

GBP/USD dipped significantly on the background of the previous comments the U.S. Federal Reserve Janet Yellen wagering.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.7075 line break that will open the way to the level of 1.7500. If the pair keeps decreasing it may got to 1.6970.

Yen

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar and reached 5months high against the euro after the reports that the Malaysian airlines Boing777 was hit over the Ukraine territory, and in particular over the Donetsk region. As a result 295 passengers and 15 crew members were killed.

The yen rose against major currencies earlier amid the growing demand for the safe assets in a connection with the stock markets correction after the U.S. and the EU imposed new sanctions against the Russia's aggression towards Ukraine.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the dollar/yen is trading above the resistance level of 99.30 which has already become the support. The potential growth target is the level of 101.80.

Gold

The gold futures fall in price, as traders take the profits after the recent rise related to the growing demand for the safe harbor amid the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the growth channel may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1255.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №8 from 26/07/2014

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.


Euro

The euro/dollar stayed stable during the last session. Nevertheless, the dollar ended the week with a growth on expectations that a new statistical data may show to a impulse strengthening to the U.S. economy growth. The U.S. Commerce Department will release the data on the orders volume for the durable goods in June. According to the experts interviewed by Bloomberg, the orders rose last month by 0.5% after a decrease of 1% in May.

Trading recommendations

The pair touched the decrease target and developed the first growth impulse. The market set the correction to the first impulse. We recommend paying attention on the continued growth with the second-growth impulse development. The target is the level of 1.3520.


Pound

The pound/dollar may consolidate with a tendency to decrease after it has reached the month low on 1.6964 last Thursday. The preliminary data on UK GDP for the 2nd quarter may help the pair. The attitude towards the British currency declined amid it does not meet the retail sales growth expectations. The positive market attitude to the U.S. dollar and the pound sales also press the pair. The potential reduction will be held by a correction.

Trading recommendations

The pair has worked out the decrease target. We advise to consider the continued development trend upwards. The current structure main target is 1.7500. Further on we expect the return to the level of 1.7140.


Yen

The U.S. dollar was steady against the yen trading on about 2.5-week high after the data showed that the inflation in Japan was slowed last month while the optimistic initial jobless claims continue to support the demand for the U.S. dollar.

Trading recommendations

The pair closed the growth target. Today we advise to consider the consolidation development with the reversal pattern development. We also recommend considering the next decrease wave development to the level of 99.30. The first target is 100.50.


Gold

The gold futures were down during the Asian session on Friday. The gold futures for August were traded at USD 1.291, 80 per ounce falling on 0.08% on the division of the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues to trade down and develops a decrease third wave. Today we advise to consider the continued wave development on the refinement level of 1275 (as a minimum). Next, we consider the return possibility to below the levels 1300 test.


Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

 

[Ekaterina Fechina]

Issue №8 from 02/08/2014

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The pair resumed its decline on the Thursday Asia-European session and fell into a minimum week's levels zone at the U.S. trading day beginning. The pressure was resumed after investors paid attention to aggressive rhetoric strengthening in the Fed Operations Committee on Open Market meeting results final statement.

Trading recommendations

The pair forms a consolidation range at the minimums. We consider this structure as part of the reversal pattern. The main scenario for today is the structure development possibility to restore price to the level of 1.3590. As an alternative, we do not exclude the minimum update and only after that - the growth.

Pound

The July's drop in prices for the UK housing market stopped the currency pullback and launched the pair for the decrease. The main British currency decline driver remained as the widespread U.S. dollar strengthening which we observed last week across the foreign exchange market spectrum. However, the pair downward trend was also unstable. The negative U.S. data output stopped the pair decline and corrected its previous decline until the end of the day.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to trade in a decrease channel. Today we consider the 1.6845 level overlap possibility. Next, we consider the consolidation development on the subject of the reversal structure formation for the uptrend continuation.

Yen

The Japanese macro statistics worsens. The industrial production data published in June showed a decline of 3.3%, as the new homes bookmarks showed a decrease of 9.5%, and the average wage decreased from 0.6% to 0.4% in annual terms. The Japan manufacturing sector business activity index in July in the final assessment was revised from 50.8 to 50.5.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to form the consolidation range on the wave growth top. We regard it as part of the pivot structure. We consider the wave 101.70 level breakdown development and the refinement level of 99.30 continued decrease as the main scenario for today.

Gold

The gold which rose more than on 6% in June, decreased nearly on 2.5% this month as the increased speculation about a rate hike by the Federal Reserve System, combined with the better U.S. economic data reduced the demand for gold as an asset -seeker.

Trading recommendations

The gold continues to develop its decline structure. We consider the consolidation development with the further breakdown and also expect the decrease to the 1275 level overlap. Then we will consider the possibility of price restoring back to the level of 1300.


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