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Chapter 17, Part II. Harmonic Numbers and AB=CD pattern. Page 5

Discussion in 'Complete Trading Education- Forex Military School' started by Sive Morten, Dec 21, 2013.

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  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Now, how is to combine these numbers on larger time frame. Here is the daily chart:


    Chart #4 | EUR/USD Daily
    [​IMG]

    You can see, that we may apply as 428 pips harmonic move as 40 pips harmonic move. But here first one is more comfortable. For calculation of contraction purposes you may use the same 0.382, 0.618 or other multipliers to this harmonic move. For instance – applying multiplier 2 you will get target as 856 pips, rather than 973 pips in first move. But this deviation is small, compared to the move. Retracement down was 50% as precisely 1 harmonic move. In a move up you’ll get the target with 1284 pips rather than 1511. But relative to the scale of these moves harmonic numbers work almost perfectly. Also if you take a careful look at this long 1511 pips move – you’ll see that it consists of 3 1-harmonic swings.

    Pipruit: Yes, indeed. So depending on time frame, first I should scale up or down the initial harmonic number, say 37-40 pips with integer multiplier – so I’ll get a more suitable harmonic number for a particular time frame. Then I can apply different multipliers that we’ve specified to calculate targets for contracting (retracements) and expansions.​

    Commander in Pips: Absolutely.

    Pipruit: This is very interesting, but what about how to apply all of this?​

    Commander in Pips: All harmonic patterns are based on some Fib ratios and harmonic swings. If you know Fib ratio and swing – you can estimate the reversal points with high precision. The most significant quality of any harmonic swing is that market will not pass it occasionally. For instance, if some harmonic pattern shows us reversal at 1.50 on EUR/USD – then we can place stop above at 1.5040 and enter. Because if market will pass higher than 1 harmonic swing – it tells that our pattern has failed and the move up will continue. That’s our major way of application of harmonic number to harmonic patterns. Harmonic swing allows us significantly reduce risk and increase precision of estimation of our entry/exit points in trades.

    The second important issue tells that when the market breaks out of some range - turns to expansion from contraction, and if it moves more than 1 harmonic swing – very probable that it will pass 2 or 3 more.

    Pipruit: And is harmonic swing constant over time?​

    Commander in Pips: I suppose that it is not. It can change. But this change happens slowly after long-term period, so from time to time it makes sense to revalue our harmonic number by doing the same work with observations.
     
    #1 Sive Morten, Dec 21, 2013
    Lasted edited by : Apr 10, 2016
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