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Chapter 21, Part IV. Central Bank Representatives. Page 2

Discussion in 'Complete Trading Education- Forex Military School' started by Sive Morten, Dec 22, 2013.

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  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Commander in Pips: Because the Central Bank does not yet know how the economy will respond to their action and what macro data will show. So if they say now that we will hike interest rates, but tomorrow they will see bad data, then they will say we will not. This will lead the market to doom and gloom. They need to be 100% sure with perspectives. That’s why they prepare markets to change gradually by changing the tone of their statement. And to grab and catch the major idea of tone shifting, big banks have a special analyst.




    Pipruit: I see. In reality it seems difficult.​


    Commander in Pips: Since Central Banks give markets new thoughts and direction, during a speech some market move usually appears, so be aware of it. In a general speech could contain direct information of rate changing, thoughts about different macro data and economic growth, inflation, employment, expectations of Central Bank about them and other. A very important question answers that usually holds after Central Bank’s statement, since some question could shed more light on some moments of statement.

    Don’t be upset if you can’t catch live translation – all agencies will release it with details and will discuss it with world-known analysts during long time.

    As we’ve discussed that macro data could shake markets if it was released different to expectations, the same could happen if a Central Bank statement is different to anticipation and the overall sentiment and opinion of the market. There is always odds that exist that a Central Bank could change its opinion on economic perspectives, change its own expectations and forecasts on some major economy data, say, inflation or do something like that. Particularly in this time we need to be extra careful, since the market falls in volatility splash. So, control your risk and think twice before opening new positions near the time of these speeches.


    Pipruit: But how does a Central Bank make decisions about interest rate and overall policy?​
     
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