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Chapter 21, Part VII. Market Response on News. Page 5

Discussion in 'Complete Trading Education- Forex Military School' started by Sive Morten, Dec 22, 2013.

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  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Data revision


    Here is the same part from Yahoo schedule of macro statistics, but for August. You may see what the market has expected and what number actually was released – 40% upward surprise, that’s impressive. But that is not all – look at two last columns – “Revised From” and “Prior”.


    [​IMG]

    This report releases monthly. In our table we mention the release of NFP for July. Two last columns are dedicated to June. At the day of June report release, it has shown that May (or prior) number was just 18K.

    Then, the turn of July release has come and it shows 117K compares to 84K expected. But also it has shown that June number was revised upward to 46 K – that is additional +28K. Read it like that:

    “previous month figure was revised from 18K to 46K”​


    So, total surprise is:

    (Current month difference + revision)/current expectation= ((117-84)+(46-18))/84=72.6%​


    That is quite another picture. The market could just explode with that surprise. You have to keep an eye on revised data and always use it in surprise calculation. Otherwise you can be confused by results. Say, the market expects +15K, but real figure comes at 5K – this is negative surprise, but if previous data was revised upward for 20K, the picture turns drastically – it becomes positive!



    And vice versa, the revision could totally negate the current surprise, if it was in the opposite direction. So, that is very important and made for different data, not only for Non farm payrolls.



    P.S. This lesson was written by Sive Morten, who has been working for a large European Bank since April of 2000, and is currently a supervisor of the bank's risk assessment department. Sive's knowledge of forex market and banking industry is vast and quite complete. If you have any specific questions about forex, banking industry, or any other financial instruments, please post them on the next page and Sive should answer soon.



    Note: FPA ranks are earned in the battles against scam, not in the classroom.
     
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