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Chapter 22, Part III. Crosses – Continuation of Continuation... and Finish. Page 2

Discussion in 'Complete Trading Education- Forex Military School' started by Sive Morten, Dec 22, 2013.

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  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Commander in Pips: Well, sometimes this is really so. But think by yourself – if investors start to sell CHF in USD/CHF pair, why they should hold EUR in EUR/USD pair? I suppose that they will sell EUR as well, so the dynamic of EUR/CHF pair becomes not so obvious. It will more depend on the impact strength of USD appreciation on the EU economy and the Swiss economy. In other words, it could turn out that the market will remain in some range and just goes nowhere.

    Pipruit: I see.​


    Commander in Pips: Now about the Yen. Yen is so popular, that its crosses trade to all other major currencies – AUD, EUR, GBP, NZD and some others. First of all, many traders and institutional investors choose yen, since its application is very profitable in terms of carry trade. Since AUD, NZD and GBP historically show rather high interest rates – they guarantee the highest rate difference with yen, i.e. highest level of carry trade. From that perspective AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY are very interesting.

    But you always have to keep an eye on USD/JPY, even if you deal with JPY crosses. Since USD/JPY is a major pair – some solid events there could and will have impact on price action of crosses. For instance, this could be breakout of some significant level. As you understand JPY has a dominate role here – if USD/JPY breaks solid support – then investors are buying yen and crosses also could move lower, if resistance – then they are selling it, and crosses probably will start to drift higher.

    And there is a separate talk about CAD/JPY pair. It has become popular not so far and now is only increasing its popularity. Why? This is comes from a specific Canadian role. In fact Canada has solid oil reserves (13.21% of total world reserves - second place in the world after Saudi Arabia), while Japan's economy based on 99% import of oil, since they have no natural reserves. That’s why CAD/JPY has very high correlation with oil prices – around 80-85%.
     
    #1 Sive Morten, Dec 22, 2013
    Lasted edited by : Sep 30, 2016
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