EUR/USD Daily Video, 02 October, 2015

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
18,564
Good morning,

It seems that EUR has started move down but still, NFP data will be major risk factor today:





The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
 
Hi Folks, hi Sive

the week did not end up very well for me, even though it had best chance to become a very ! successfull week .

Reason being , that Non-Farmer Payroll variation only increased a little bit instead of satifying expactations and increase up to 203 K :
Non-Farm_Payroll.png


In consequence value of the currency USD dropped and the Fx-pair EUR.USD raised . Results were
so baldy off expactations, that a "spike" was generated . Panic in the markets made the quotes change
with one ms to the next ms from ( I believe : ) 1,1160 to values of approx 1,1215...1,1225 . I could not find any
quotes inbetween .

I had trades with Broker Oanda ..... which had most BE - SL ´s and were all closed at losses :
Oanda_Orderausführung.png

And I had an important position with IB at 1,11807 , this was "protected" at 1,11775 and 1,11800 . This is what happend to me :
IB_Orderausführung.png


Sive , first , I heard well you saying in the video that each one must decided for himself, what he/she does , stay in the market or leave ( even if you would not have said it, it is logical to me ) . I am a trillion miles away from pointing at anybody but myself because of this loss . But I must learn, this may not happen to me again :-(

Is there lesson learned to stay out of the marktet if important news are to come ? If so, what qualifies as "important" , only payroll news of the US ? Which markets ? Only USD as most important ? Is there any rule of thumb at all ?

Disussing with IB yesterday, they explained me, that my orderrouting would be set for Bid/Ask and I could consider "Midpoint" ...... this would have helped (?) . Any input to me, in which direction this hint is pointing too ?

Are there brokers with guaranteed order execution at desired prive ?

Thx
Lobotrader
 
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Hi Lobo,
Well too big topic to answer in just one post... First of all, I suggest you to read our Forex Military School on subject of functioning of retail FX brokers and what "freedom" they have with orders executions. Even on Futures market such sort of gaps possible, when you have to orders between the ticks and in one tick market covers huge price distance.

Our mature forumers know that I do not trade Data releases and do not hold positions during data releases without absolute necessity. This is just personal choice. You should just decide whether you do this or not. Because there is no some rule or tool that tell you to hold or not to hold position. Here I mean major data - ADP, NFP, GDP, Retail Sales, etc.
Or, at least, if you have profitable positions - tight stop, move to b/e...
Other traders are vice versa - feel absolutely comfortable and trade data releases.

This is theoretical link, but somewhere in the course, (I do not remember exactly in which chapter) I've written real example on quotes manipulation when market has dropped below stop order with the gap and dealer couldn't get quotes from dealing desk, so there was a real problem to close position...

https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/comm...25-part-i-dealing-with-the-news-page-4.30536/
 
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