Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,655
Fundamentals
(Reuters) - The dollar fell to a four-month low against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors sought out the safe-haven currency in light of uncertainty about the White House's ability to push through its economic agenda.
The yen was the major mover among developed world currencies. It rose nearly 1 percent against the dollar as nervousness over stock market valuations and the future of an eight-year global rally seeped into other assets.
Concerns about whether U.S. President Donald Trump can get Congress to pass the pro-growth measures that financial investors had expected at the start of this year turned U.S. stocks lower for the fourth straight day. On Thursday, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index had its biggest one-day loss in three months.
That drove investors into the traditional security of the yen, with worries about another attack claimed by Islamic State in Barcelona feeding into the rising uncertainty.
Trump's response to a white supremacist march in Charlottesville, Virginia, that left one woman dead has drawn widespread condemnation, even from within his Republican party. It is the latest news that investors say distracts from his campaign pledges to cut taxes and reinvest in U.S. infrastructure.
The dollar recovered somewhat after a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan but remained lower on the day.
The dollar was last down 0.75 percent against the yen at 108.72 yen. It fell 0.1 percent against the Swiss franc to 0.9618 after touching a one-week low.
"With President Trump’s support from both within and outside of the White House waning, the uncertain U.S. political environment is likely to keep the dollar pinned down at these low levels," said strategist Viraj Patel of ING in London.
"It is difficult to find any other domestic catalyst to more than offset this negative factor."
The yen's lurch higher, from nearly 111 per dollar on Wednesday to below 109 on Friday, has largely stemmed from technical trading and an increase in volatility, said Tim Alt, fund manager for rates and currencies at Aviva Investors in Chicago.
The headlines have forced traders with bets on a weaker Japanese currency and stronger dollar to reverse their positions, he added.
"In (times of) low volatility ..., selling or being short the yen is considered to be attractive," Alt said. "And as we’re seeing a little bit more jitters, volatility pick up a little bit, I think there’s been some questioning of that."
As Today we will take a look at NZD - let's find out what situation we have in China, since this is important for whole Asia region and NZ in particular:
Expanded China Momentum Indicator Shows Growth Rebounding – For Now
by Fathom Consulting
Along with the majority of economic forecasters, Fathom Consulting has long been skeptical of official Chinese GDP statistics. To gain a better insight into economic activity we developed our China Momentum Indicator (CMI), first published in 2014. Our upgraded version – CMI 2.0 – includes ten series rather than the previous three, and tracks a broader range of credit instruments. CMI 2.0 shows Chinese growth to have rebounded rapidly over 2016 and 2017, as the government ‘doubles down’ on its strategy of investment- and export-led growth. We believe this growth path to be unsustainable over the medium term.
There is strong reason to believe that Chinese GDP statistics are less than fully reliable. This view is lent weight by the statements of China’s own authorities. In 2007, according to a State Department memo released by WikiLeaks, Li Keqiang, now the Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of Chinatold a US ambassador that rather than trusting official Chinese GDP figures he relied on three alternative indicators of economic activity: railway freight; electricity consumption; and the issuance of bank loans.
In our construction of CMI 1.0, first published in October 2014, we took Premier Li at his word, creating an aggregate index based on the growth rates of these three indicators. Our measure had the additional advantage of being available at a monthly frequency. The indicator diverged from the official quarterly GDP figures around 2013, which is when we believe headline GDP figures started to be particularly egregiously ‘fudged’ by the Chinese government. Contrary to the official annual growth figure, which never fell below 6.9%, CMI 1.0 fell to a trough of 2.2% in January 2016 before picking up gradually over the past year.
CMI 1.0 had the advantage of a clear and unbiased motivation behind the choice of indicators; the selection was not our own but that of Premier Li. However, the point has been made that a broader basket would better capture economic activity in China.
This is especially true going forward, as China-watchers look for evidence that policy makers are encouraging a rebalancing of the economy to a more sustainable growth path reoriented to the consumer, rather than ‘doubling down’ on the past model of export- and investment-led growth. Our own view is that those in power have opted for the latter path, and that although this choice delivered an upswing in growth in 2016, it will ultimately threaten China’s long-term growth prospects.
To this end we have expanded CMI 2.0 to include a total of ten rather than the previous three series. Two of the inputs remain unchanged whereas the credit indicator identified by Premier Li has been expanded to include off- as well as on-balance sheet lending. This was an important addition because recent credit expansion in China has been increasingly directed to off-balance-sheet vehicles, to help comply with capital adequacy requirements, as the chart below shows.
The credit expansion is central to our view that the current growth model is unsustainable. China’s ratio of private non-financial debt-to-GDP has now breached 200%, which is already 50% higher than that of the US the year before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The expansion has been necessary to fund its investment-led growth, but such a strategy leads to funds flowing to projects and assets that generate little or no return.
In our choice of the seven new indicators we have, wherever possible, avoided measures used in the construction of the usual expenditure components of GDP, focusing instead on shadow measures of economic activity. We believe these to be less prone to manipulation than the headline GDP figures.
CMI 2.0 expands the range of freight variables from just railways to include highways and goods exported through ports, in addition to two commodity variables which correlate with domestic demand and activity. Financing, retail sales and air passenger volumes are included as representations of the services sector. The inclusion of real imports also captures the growing consumption of Chinese workers with increasing incomes, and the import of intermediate goods for use in industry. The complete basket of indicators is shown on the chart below:
The first chart shows our final CMI 2.0 series. The new indicator better tracks official GDP figures during the slowdown and recovery from the global financial crisis in 2008, but diverges significantly from official GDP at the same point as CMI 1.0 and follows the same subsequent downward trajectory. The trough of GDP growth is slightly higher and earlier, at 2.5% in October 2015. Since that point our new indicator has rebounded far more strongly than CMI 1.0; in fact the latest reading of 7.7% growth for June is higher than the official GDP figure for 2017 Q2 of 6.9%. The rebound is due to five of the ten indicators displaying strong growth over the past year: all three freight indicators, especially railway freight, in addition to real imports and the commodity price index, have expanded at significantly higher rates than in the slump of late 2015. CMI 1.0, which picked up only railway freight out of these indicators, showed growth to be increasing, but did not capture the full extent of the rebound. This supports our belief that Chinese decision-makers have doubled down: unable to tolerate the slowdown associated with a rebalancing, which could threaten their own position and control, they have chosen to recommit to the model of export- and investment-led growth rather than a reorientation toward the consumer.
We do not have confidence in the sustainability of this growth path for China. In our central scenario for this quarter we expect GDP growth as measured by CMI 2.0 to fall back to 6.4% by 2018. Our central forecast for the long term, relating to 2020-25, is for growth of around 4.5%, as maintaining the tactic of low consumption and continued investment in unproductive assets results in a falling return on capital which undermines growth. Of course, the authorities will likely continue to report faster growth.
Indeed when we look at the component breakdown of CMI 2.0 we can see some early signals of the unsustainability of the current rebound. All five of the indicators discussed above which have been driving the expansion have turned down over the past two or three months. This will take time to feed through to our headline CMI, due to the smoothing method, but we believe the slowdown will persist.
The doubling down path has been funded by a huge expansion of credit, and, despite introducing some tentative measures to improve lending standards earlier this year, we believe policymakers will be too fearful of a slowdown to take away the punch bowl. In our downside scenario, China suffers a banking crisis and enters recession. Unwilling to take the painful but necessary steps to restructure their financial system, they instead take piecemeal steps to recapitalisation, as Japan did in 1991, trapping them in the same low-growth environment faced by many developed economies.
Much of our long-term China view hinges on the sources of growth, in terms of the necessary transition away from manufacturing and towards greater reliance on the tertiary sector. In addition, the realisation of our forecast’s downside scenario depends on the outlook for the financial system, where it is essential to consider off-balance-sheet lending in addition to traditional bank loans. In this vein we consider CMI 2.0 to be a more useful and comprehensive snapshot of economic activity in China.
Fathom research is great, but I think they miss just 1 thing that could make strong boost to China economy - Middle East. China already is taking steps to make huge investment programmes in Syria to re-build country and rise it up from ash. Next is Lybia. ISIL game is over. If China already signs contracts on investing it means, that indeed, situation is coming to pie destribution and most fat political pieces will get Iran, Russia and Turkey, while as China is reachest country among the others - I think that it will get a lot of benefits from economical side of rebuilding process. That's why IMHO China will add some points to it's GDP mostly due export contracts in Middle East.
COT Report
Today, guys, we will take a look at kiwi dollar as it has most clear setup among other major currencies. Actually trading setup already stands in place and we need just watch for suitable entry point. At the same time, there are some nuances exist that could become extremely important on coming week.
NZD shows outstanding bullish sentiment as net long positions have reached all time highs few weeks ago. As you know, this is one of our major indicators that suggest retracement down to off-load too big speculative longs. And this now is happening. CFTC data shows typical tendency for this kind of action - open interest is dropping as trades fix profits and close their longs. As you can see, overall position shows ~30% correction right now. This is indeed a retracement probably as price dropps very slow and stubborn and market could re-establish upside action at any time, because major target has not been reached yet:
Technicals
Monthly
On monthly chart overall picture looks bullish in short-term perspective. Trend stands bullish, price is not at OB. Overall price action looks positive as NZD has tested YPP and jumped up. Market is forming clear AB-CD pattern. Now we will not take in consideration far standing AB=CD target, but will focus just on nearest target.
This is strong resistance cluster as you can see - 0.618 AB-CD that creates Agreement with major 5/8 resistance and coincides with YPR1, which is next logical long-term destination as price already has tested YPP.
CD leg looks strong, at least is faster than AB and market shows tail closing mostly. Another important moment - kiwi has broken up long - term resistance area in yellow rectangle and now stands above it. When market uses as support previous barrier - this is bullish sign. Besides, price has exceeded "C' point already and it means that downside butterfly scenario is eliminated.
Taking in consideration CFTC data and ongoing process in Asia region, mostly they are look positive for long term NZ perspectives. Thus, in few months market indeed could reach our next target - 0.7680-0.78 area.
Weekly
On weekly chart trend also is bullish and here just two major moments to talk about. First is a target - we have here initial AB-CD and it's 1.618 extension stands at 0.76 area. As this target stands closer and it is at shorter time frame - it is more valuable for us. So, I think that we should focus on it.
Second - here we have first pattern that will lay down in foundation of our trading setup. This is bullish stop grabber that has been formed on long-term trend line support, Fib support and MPS1.
As you know this pattern suggests moving above previous tops @0.7550 which automatically means action to 0.76 target, I suppose.
Thus, with this grabber we get clear invalidation point - 0.7220 area.
Daily
On daily chart we're coming to more practical quitestions. At first glance we could get H&S pattern potentially, within few weeks may be. But, overall setup that we have on higher time frames mostly suggests the opposite action and gives hints that here H&S either will fail or will not be formed. At least this chance exists also.
Now is a question how upside action could start. Now we have multiple patterns that we need to discuss. First is bullish engulfing pattern that has been formed at our support area. Mostly we've discussed this in our daily video already. Minimal target of engulfing pattern is length of it's bars, and it means that on intraday charts price could show upside AB-CD pattern.
Second - we have tweezers top here. This is bearish moment. I've marked on the chart some tweezers, they are reversal patterns, but the depth of action after they have been formed could be different - from just 1 candle to big trend. In our situation tweezers tell that retracement down in the body of engulfing pattern could be deeper, i.e. upside action will start not on Monday probably.
Finally recent slope has 8 bars of downside thrust, price has not reached 3/8 Fib resistance (as it could be seen on hourly chart). As we suggest upside reversal around - we could watch for DRPO "Buy" pattern and this pattern suggests approximately equal bottoms. This, in turn, again points on deeper downside action on intraday chart:
Hourly
On hourly chart we have the same reverse H&S pattern that should become a triggering pattern for upside action. All moments that we've just discussed makes me think that we sould get some "222" Buy pattern on hourly chart and our entry point will be formed somewhere in 0.7230-0.7270 area - between 1.0 and 1.618 AB-CD downside targets. Take a look that 1.618 target also coincides with WPS1. This entry point will be perfect in terms of relation to invalidation 0.7220 area, provides good risk/reward ratio and reasonable risk in general.
Conclusion:
In general as it is seemed from fundamental data, NZD has not bad long-term perspectives, at least for nearest 3-6 months. On daily and lower time frames we have clear setup with definite target and invalidation point.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
(Reuters) - The dollar fell to a four-month low against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors sought out the safe-haven currency in light of uncertainty about the White House's ability to push through its economic agenda.
The yen was the major mover among developed world currencies. It rose nearly 1 percent against the dollar as nervousness over stock market valuations and the future of an eight-year global rally seeped into other assets.
Concerns about whether U.S. President Donald Trump can get Congress to pass the pro-growth measures that financial investors had expected at the start of this year turned U.S. stocks lower for the fourth straight day. On Thursday, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index had its biggest one-day loss in three months.
That drove investors into the traditional security of the yen, with worries about another attack claimed by Islamic State in Barcelona feeding into the rising uncertainty.
Trump's response to a white supremacist march in Charlottesville, Virginia, that left one woman dead has drawn widespread condemnation, even from within his Republican party. It is the latest news that investors say distracts from his campaign pledges to cut taxes and reinvest in U.S. infrastructure.
The dollar recovered somewhat after a stronger-than-expected reading on U.S. consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan but remained lower on the day.
The dollar was last down 0.75 percent against the yen at 108.72 yen. It fell 0.1 percent against the Swiss franc to 0.9618 after touching a one-week low.
"With President Trump’s support from both within and outside of the White House waning, the uncertain U.S. political environment is likely to keep the dollar pinned down at these low levels," said strategist Viraj Patel of ING in London.
"It is difficult to find any other domestic catalyst to more than offset this negative factor."
The yen's lurch higher, from nearly 111 per dollar on Wednesday to below 109 on Friday, has largely stemmed from technical trading and an increase in volatility, said Tim Alt, fund manager for rates and currencies at Aviva Investors in Chicago.
The headlines have forced traders with bets on a weaker Japanese currency and stronger dollar to reverse their positions, he added.
"In (times of) low volatility ..., selling or being short the yen is considered to be attractive," Alt said. "And as we’re seeing a little bit more jitters, volatility pick up a little bit, I think there’s been some questioning of that."
As Today we will take a look at NZD - let's find out what situation we have in China, since this is important for whole Asia region and NZ in particular:
Expanded China Momentum Indicator Shows Growth Rebounding – For Now
by Fathom Consulting
Along with the majority of economic forecasters, Fathom Consulting has long been skeptical of official Chinese GDP statistics. To gain a better insight into economic activity we developed our China Momentum Indicator (CMI), first published in 2014. Our upgraded version – CMI 2.0 – includes ten series rather than the previous three, and tracks a broader range of credit instruments. CMI 2.0 shows Chinese growth to have rebounded rapidly over 2016 and 2017, as the government ‘doubles down’ on its strategy of investment- and export-led growth. We believe this growth path to be unsustainable over the medium term.
There is strong reason to believe that Chinese GDP statistics are less than fully reliable. This view is lent weight by the statements of China’s own authorities. In 2007, according to a State Department memo released by WikiLeaks, Li Keqiang, now the Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of Chinatold a US ambassador that rather than trusting official Chinese GDP figures he relied on three alternative indicators of economic activity: railway freight; electricity consumption; and the issuance of bank loans.
In our construction of CMI 1.0, first published in October 2014, we took Premier Li at his word, creating an aggregate index based on the growth rates of these three indicators. Our measure had the additional advantage of being available at a monthly frequency. The indicator diverged from the official quarterly GDP figures around 2013, which is when we believe headline GDP figures started to be particularly egregiously ‘fudged’ by the Chinese government. Contrary to the official annual growth figure, which never fell below 6.9%, CMI 1.0 fell to a trough of 2.2% in January 2016 before picking up gradually over the past year.
CMI 1.0 had the advantage of a clear and unbiased motivation behind the choice of indicators; the selection was not our own but that of Premier Li. However, the point has been made that a broader basket would better capture economic activity in China.
This is especially true going forward, as China-watchers look for evidence that policy makers are encouraging a rebalancing of the economy to a more sustainable growth path reoriented to the consumer, rather than ‘doubling down’ on the past model of export- and investment-led growth. Our own view is that those in power have opted for the latter path, and that although this choice delivered an upswing in growth in 2016, it will ultimately threaten China’s long-term growth prospects.
To this end we have expanded CMI 2.0 to include a total of ten rather than the previous three series. Two of the inputs remain unchanged whereas the credit indicator identified by Premier Li has been expanded to include off- as well as on-balance sheet lending. This was an important addition because recent credit expansion in China has been increasingly directed to off-balance-sheet vehicles, to help comply with capital adequacy requirements, as the chart below shows.
The credit expansion is central to our view that the current growth model is unsustainable. China’s ratio of private non-financial debt-to-GDP has now breached 200%, which is already 50% higher than that of the US the year before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The expansion has been necessary to fund its investment-led growth, but such a strategy leads to funds flowing to projects and assets that generate little or no return.
In our choice of the seven new indicators we have, wherever possible, avoided measures used in the construction of the usual expenditure components of GDP, focusing instead on shadow measures of economic activity. We believe these to be less prone to manipulation than the headline GDP figures.
CMI 2.0 expands the range of freight variables from just railways to include highways and goods exported through ports, in addition to two commodity variables which correlate with domestic demand and activity. Financing, retail sales and air passenger volumes are included as representations of the services sector. The inclusion of real imports also captures the growing consumption of Chinese workers with increasing incomes, and the import of intermediate goods for use in industry. The complete basket of indicators is shown on the chart below:
The first chart shows our final CMI 2.0 series. The new indicator better tracks official GDP figures during the slowdown and recovery from the global financial crisis in 2008, but diverges significantly from official GDP at the same point as CMI 1.0 and follows the same subsequent downward trajectory. The trough of GDP growth is slightly higher and earlier, at 2.5% in October 2015. Since that point our new indicator has rebounded far more strongly than CMI 1.0; in fact the latest reading of 7.7% growth for June is higher than the official GDP figure for 2017 Q2 of 6.9%. The rebound is due to five of the ten indicators displaying strong growth over the past year: all three freight indicators, especially railway freight, in addition to real imports and the commodity price index, have expanded at significantly higher rates than in the slump of late 2015. CMI 1.0, which picked up only railway freight out of these indicators, showed growth to be increasing, but did not capture the full extent of the rebound. This supports our belief that Chinese decision-makers have doubled down: unable to tolerate the slowdown associated with a rebalancing, which could threaten their own position and control, they have chosen to recommit to the model of export- and investment-led growth rather than a reorientation toward the consumer.
We do not have confidence in the sustainability of this growth path for China. In our central scenario for this quarter we expect GDP growth as measured by CMI 2.0 to fall back to 6.4% by 2018. Our central forecast for the long term, relating to 2020-25, is for growth of around 4.5%, as maintaining the tactic of low consumption and continued investment in unproductive assets results in a falling return on capital which undermines growth. Of course, the authorities will likely continue to report faster growth.
Indeed when we look at the component breakdown of CMI 2.0 we can see some early signals of the unsustainability of the current rebound. All five of the indicators discussed above which have been driving the expansion have turned down over the past two or three months. This will take time to feed through to our headline CMI, due to the smoothing method, but we believe the slowdown will persist.
The doubling down path has been funded by a huge expansion of credit, and, despite introducing some tentative measures to improve lending standards earlier this year, we believe policymakers will be too fearful of a slowdown to take away the punch bowl. In our downside scenario, China suffers a banking crisis and enters recession. Unwilling to take the painful but necessary steps to restructure their financial system, they instead take piecemeal steps to recapitalisation, as Japan did in 1991, trapping them in the same low-growth environment faced by many developed economies.
Much of our long-term China view hinges on the sources of growth, in terms of the necessary transition away from manufacturing and towards greater reliance on the tertiary sector. In addition, the realisation of our forecast’s downside scenario depends on the outlook for the financial system, where it is essential to consider off-balance-sheet lending in addition to traditional bank loans. In this vein we consider CMI 2.0 to be a more useful and comprehensive snapshot of economic activity in China.
Fathom research is great, but I think they miss just 1 thing that could make strong boost to China economy - Middle East. China already is taking steps to make huge investment programmes in Syria to re-build country and rise it up from ash. Next is Lybia. ISIL game is over. If China already signs contracts on investing it means, that indeed, situation is coming to pie destribution and most fat political pieces will get Iran, Russia and Turkey, while as China is reachest country among the others - I think that it will get a lot of benefits from economical side of rebuilding process. That's why IMHO China will add some points to it's GDP mostly due export contracts in Middle East.
COT Report
Today, guys, we will take a look at kiwi dollar as it has most clear setup among other major currencies. Actually trading setup already stands in place and we need just watch for suitable entry point. At the same time, there are some nuances exist that could become extremely important on coming week.
NZD shows outstanding bullish sentiment as net long positions have reached all time highs few weeks ago. As you know, this is one of our major indicators that suggest retracement down to off-load too big speculative longs. And this now is happening. CFTC data shows typical tendency for this kind of action - open interest is dropping as trades fix profits and close their longs. As you can see, overall position shows ~30% correction right now. This is indeed a retracement probably as price dropps very slow and stubborn and market could re-establish upside action at any time, because major target has not been reached yet:
Technicals
Monthly
On monthly chart overall picture looks bullish in short-term perspective. Trend stands bullish, price is not at OB. Overall price action looks positive as NZD has tested YPP and jumped up. Market is forming clear AB-CD pattern. Now we will not take in consideration far standing AB=CD target, but will focus just on nearest target.
This is strong resistance cluster as you can see - 0.618 AB-CD that creates Agreement with major 5/8 resistance and coincides with YPR1, which is next logical long-term destination as price already has tested YPP.
CD leg looks strong, at least is faster than AB and market shows tail closing mostly. Another important moment - kiwi has broken up long - term resistance area in yellow rectangle and now stands above it. When market uses as support previous barrier - this is bullish sign. Besides, price has exceeded "C' point already and it means that downside butterfly scenario is eliminated.
Taking in consideration CFTC data and ongoing process in Asia region, mostly they are look positive for long term NZ perspectives. Thus, in few months market indeed could reach our next target - 0.7680-0.78 area.
Weekly
On weekly chart trend also is bullish and here just two major moments to talk about. First is a target - we have here initial AB-CD and it's 1.618 extension stands at 0.76 area. As this target stands closer and it is at shorter time frame - it is more valuable for us. So, I think that we should focus on it.
Second - here we have first pattern that will lay down in foundation of our trading setup. This is bullish stop grabber that has been formed on long-term trend line support, Fib support and MPS1.
As you know this pattern suggests moving above previous tops @0.7550 which automatically means action to 0.76 target, I suppose.
Thus, with this grabber we get clear invalidation point - 0.7220 area.
Daily
On daily chart we're coming to more practical quitestions. At first glance we could get H&S pattern potentially, within few weeks may be. But, overall setup that we have on higher time frames mostly suggests the opposite action and gives hints that here H&S either will fail or will not be formed. At least this chance exists also.
Now is a question how upside action could start. Now we have multiple patterns that we need to discuss. First is bullish engulfing pattern that has been formed at our support area. Mostly we've discussed this in our daily video already. Minimal target of engulfing pattern is length of it's bars, and it means that on intraday charts price could show upside AB-CD pattern.
Second - we have tweezers top here. This is bearish moment. I've marked on the chart some tweezers, they are reversal patterns, but the depth of action after they have been formed could be different - from just 1 candle to big trend. In our situation tweezers tell that retracement down in the body of engulfing pattern could be deeper, i.e. upside action will start not on Monday probably.
Finally recent slope has 8 bars of downside thrust, price has not reached 3/8 Fib resistance (as it could be seen on hourly chart). As we suggest upside reversal around - we could watch for DRPO "Buy" pattern and this pattern suggests approximately equal bottoms. This, in turn, again points on deeper downside action on intraday chart:
Hourly
On hourly chart we have the same reverse H&S pattern that should become a triggering pattern for upside action. All moments that we've just discussed makes me think that we sould get some "222" Buy pattern on hourly chart and our entry point will be formed somewhere in 0.7230-0.7270 area - between 1.0 and 1.618 AB-CD downside targets. Take a look that 1.618 target also coincides with WPS1. This entry point will be perfect in terms of relation to invalidation 0.7220 area, provides good risk/reward ratio and reasonable risk in general.
Conclusion:
In general as it is seemed from fundamental data, NZD has not bad long-term perspectives, at least for nearest 3-6 months. On daily and lower time frames we have clear setup with definite target and invalidation point.
The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
