FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 06-10, 2017

[Sive Morten]

Fundamentals

(Reuters) - The dollar fell on Friday in choppy trading after the U.S. employment report showed a smaller-than-expected rise in wages last month despite strong jobs gains, likely prompting the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive in raising interest rates this year.

The greenback has struggled amid concerns about the Trump administration's preference for a weak dollar. It posted its worst January in percentage terms in 30 years.

This week, the trend continued to be lower, with the greenback down 2.3 percent against the yen in its worst weekly performance since late July.

The dollar index has ended lower for six consecutive weeks.

Further compounding the dollar's anemic trend this year was Friday's report showing that January non-farm payrolls rose by 227,000 jobs, the largest gain in four months. But the unemployment rate rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.8 percent and wages increased modestly, suggesting there was still some slack in the labor market that would keep inflation in check.

As a result, Fed fund futures priced in a less than 10 percent chance of a rate hike in March on Friday after the jobs data, according to the CME Group's FedWatch. Rate futures have instead priced in a June hike, with a probability of more than 60 percent.

"It was largely the consideration of low wage growth that put a significant damper on the outlook for near-future Fed rate hikes," said James Chen, head of research at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey, adding that average hourly earnings reflect labor and consumer inflation.

Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1 percent, lower than the market's forecasts for a 0.3 percent increase. There was also a downward revision to the December wage growth.

The jobs report's dovish implications were reinforced late on Friday by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who said he favors gradual rate hikes.

In late trading, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus six top currencies, was flat to slightly lower at 99.776.

Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.1 percent at 112.70 yen. The euro, meanwhile, was up 0.2 percent against the dollar at $1.0775.

January's U.S. non-manufacturing index also showed a reading of 56.5, slightly lower than the market's 57.0 forecast.. But the number remained higher than the 54.9 average for the whole of 2016, according to High Frequency Economics.

"A little lower then expected, but still fairly strong," said Jim O'Sullivan, High Frequency's chief U.S. economist. "The data suggests good upward momentum."

Donald Trump’s job just became harder
by Fathom Consulting

Released last week, the advance estimate of 2016 Q4 GDP showed that the US economy grew at an annualised pace of 1.9% last quarter, 0.2 percentage points above our below-consensus forecast.

As the chart highlights, domestic demand was robust: personal consumption and stockbuilding both made large positive contributions to growth. Consumers are confident and businesses appear to be building their inventories in anticipation of a stronger economy.

A widening in the trade deficit, by contrast, subtracted 1.7 percentage points from real GDP growth; imports jumped 8.3% (SAAR) and exports dropped 4.3%. The latter can be partly explained by a reversal of a one-off surge in US soybean exports in Q3, while solid domestic demand and currency appreciation offer explanations for the former.

Looking ahead, we expect both domestic demand and the US dollar to remain strong, complicating the new administration’s goal of narrowing the US trade deficit.

Today guys, we will make a research on Australian Dollar. Since it has relation as to gold and other commodities markets as to Forex - picture that we see there right now could become a prophecy for other markets. And it could happen so that AUD stands first in queue of other currencies, that could show the same dynamic later.
As AUD has strong relation to commodities - it has tighter link with real global economy, since any fluctuations in global commodity demand makes an impact on AUD as well. Thus, as commodities have turned to growth - could it mean some global growth in production and new spiral of inflationary growth in global economy? This is really possible. Right now we see big changes in geopolitical balance and global order. We expect big shifts in EU economy and changing old system of economical relations with turning of EU economy to East and involving Russia, China, India, Middle East as whole economic space. This will take time of course to happen, but changes come step by step.
As you understand such big cracks and changes and new vector in global economy could significantly boost demand on commodities and new breath of restructuring could bring inspiration and icrease in global production. That's why picture that we see right now on AUD could become the first bird and hint on going process, due to special tight relation of AUD and commodity markets.

COT Report

CFTC data shows bullish sentiment on AUD. Net speculative position has turned to positive. At the same time position is far from total saturation and has pretty much room to grow more. Open interest rises together with speculative position. This indicates bullish sentiment and support existed trend on the market.

Technicals
Monthly

Situation on monthly chart has changed drastically in January. Only in late December we've talked that probably AUD will form butterfly "buy" and drop to YPS1 as more agressive Fed policy is expected. Now as you can see - Aussie is skyrocketed in January and mostly has erased former setup, as current action looks not normal for ordinary butterfly shape...

We suspect there are other driving factors for AUD right now exist. Thus, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed a trade surplus of A$3.51 billion ($2.68 billion) in December, handily outpacing forecasts of A$2.2 billion, as surging commodity prices showered the resource-rich nation in cash.
50% mismatch between expectations and real data makes us think that these driving factors are not just minor fluctuations or occasions. This is strong and fargoing processes, but they haven't got maximum power yet. They are just starting, as it was first such big jump in Australia trade surplus...
At the same time, recent NFP data still shows that US economy doesn't show agressive job growth and inflation. Thus, first rate hike right now is expected only in June. This makes fiscal headwing for AUD a bit weaker.

By looking at technical picture - market has shown deep 5/8 retracement after all-time AB=CD pattern has been completed. On a way down AUD also has completed lightning bolt AB-CD pattern and 5/8 Fib support is also Agreement support.

Now price is coling around this Fib support level. In January AUD has moved above Yearly pivot point. Together with recent CFTC data this points on strong long-term bullish sentiment on market.
Although AUD has stuck a bit on a way up - our DRPO Buy pattern theoretically is valid still. Thus, it seems next destination point on monthly chart is 50% Fib resistance and YPR1 at 0.81 area. Trend is bullish here, market is not at OB.

So, may be it would be better to limit our horizon by just 0.81 area and to be honest Iscare a bit to look farer, but if there is indeed big shifts in global economy and new global growth stage is starting - AUD could get huge bonuses...

Weekly

This chart indicates large reversal pattern - H&S. Overall action was a bit dramatic around it, as market was not able to break neckline at first touch and forms right "double bottom" shoulder. Now neck line is borken and right shoulder takes shape of butterfy "Sell" pattern. Trend is bullish here, but AUD has reached weekly OB level.

Price stands above MPP. As you can see as H&S AB-CD target as butterfly targets envelop 0.81 area. This confirms that 0.81 probably is medium term target:

Daily

On daily chart I was watching possible DRPO "Sell" pattern, as AUD has reached weekly neckline and I thought that it could be formed here. I talked about particular this pattern when in our videos mentioned that AUD has interesting setup but it has not been confirmed yet...

But, AUD has not formed DRPO and even more - jumped higher. First on trade balance statistics, second - on US NFP data. As a result in has returned back in previous rectangle consolidation and formed upside reversal swing. Usually when market returns in previously abandoned consolidation it leads to either action inside it and moving to opposite border, or even - opposite breakout. In our case this breakout should happen in upward direction.

At the same time, right now AUD stands at weekly OB and could show some technical retracement on coming week:

4-hour

So, retracement in area of WPS1 and 0.7565 Fib level looks reasonable. It will be unwelcome any drop below K-area, since it will be also outside of daily rectanlge range.

Conclusion:

So, AUD has very interesting long-term setup. Patterns that we have here look attractive and promising. At the same time major purpose of this research is an attempt to shed some light on global process that stands under cover and that are not yet reflected by statistics. Right now we see only first signs of these process as statistics usually has 3-9 months lag.
If AUD indeed shows first signs of global shifts due its strong relation with commodities - soon we should get the same action on other assets and currencies. This is major conclusion that we make from this analysis today.



The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[dkami]

Thanks Sive for your timely analysis as usual

Such a shame we didn't get a nice clean ABC structure in AU for long entry

Would be nice to see a deep correction for a triangle so we can all get in long with good RR instead of a break out from here!

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

(Reuters) - The yen held large gains against a number of peers on Tuesday as investors sought refuge in the safe-haven Japanese currency amid a latest rise in European political concerns.

The dollar traded at 111.930 yen after slipping to 111.590, its lowest since Nov. 28. The euro fetched 119.910 yenfollowing a dip earlier to a two-month low of 119.750.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars and the pound also gave ground to the buoyant yen.

The Japanese currency had rallied versus the dollar the previous day on an increase in risk aversion, dragged down as U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem with Wall Street shares and crude oil prices.

It also attracted demand thanks to the latest rise in investor caution toward European political developments generated after France's far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen on Monday launched her presidential bid, vowing to fight globalization and take France out of the euro zone.

French government bond yields rose sharply and European stocks fell amid perceived risks to the already strained European political establishment.

"The drop in euro zone equities and the rise in European and U.S. bond yields are pushing up the yen," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

"In comparison to last week, the yen's appreciation has been significantly more widespread. But as the steadiness in some emerging market currencies show, it has not been a one-way 'risk off' event," he said.

The euro extended overnight losses and was down 0.3 percent at $1.0725 in reach of a one-week low of $1.0713 set the previous day. The latest decline pulled the euro further away from an eight-week high of $1.0829 scaled on Thursday against a broadly weaker dollar.

Apart from France, investors also have to factor in elections in other parts of the European Union this year.

Dutch and German elections will be held in March and September. Another presidential election looms in Italy, even as former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi said he was willing to shelve his push for early voting.

The euro's struggles did not give the dollar much traction against the yen.

The U.S. currency has fallen 4.5 percent against the yen so far this year, hurt in large part by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist trade rhetoric and his readiness to see the United States end a two-decade old "strong dollar" policy.

The greenback had taken a knock after Trump and his top trade adviser Peter Navarro last week criticized Germany, Japan and China, saying the trading partners were engaged in devaluing their currencies to U.S. disadvantage.

Immediate focus fell on U.S. trade data due later in the session.

"With the protectionist trade stance the United States is seemingly poised to adopt now a key market theme, the December U.S. trade data due later today garners attention," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"A trade deficit that exceeds forecasts would weigh on the dollar by raising caution in the market toward top U.S. officials, who may speak out against perceived dollar strength."

The Australian dollar pared earlier modest losses and inched up 0.1 percent to $0.7668 after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged and gave a somewhat upbeat assessment of the economy.

Today guys, we have to return back to discussion of EUR, as situation comes to boiling point. On daily chart price has erased bullish grabber that was important to us as Thu picture was looking more bullish than now. Anyway, EUR has not passed yet the point of no-return. Actually, if you carefully look at daily picture - price still stands in the range of harmonic retracement swing and, consequently keeps chances on leg up. But right now EUR is coming to important level, where it will become clear up or down:

On 4-hour chart we're watching for 3-Drive "Sell" pattern and completion point of large butterfly pattern. Right now EUR shows a bit deeper retracement as we've discussed just 50% last week. But this fact doesn't hurt 3-Drive. It even makes matching of 1.27 and 1.618 extension of drives better and tighter. Thus, on 4-hour chart our major pattern is still valid:

Here is the reason why EUR turns to a bit deeper downward action. It forms falling wedge pattern and inner AB-CD target stands around 1.0685 - slightly lower than Fib support. Today we're watching for price action around 1.0685-1.07 level. If price will hold above it - it will keep chances on another leg up to 1.0860 area, while downward breakout could lead to deeper retracement down, and who knows, may be EUR will continue long-term bear trend...

So, if you're searching chance to go long - think about 1.0685 area. Drop your timframe to 15-min and search for bullish reversal patterns.
This level does't guarantee you success, but taking position here will let you to place tight stop and your loss will be minimal. If EUR indeed will turn up - you will have perfect entry point. I call it "tension point". In tension points you have least potential loss, although chances on success are not better.

For bears - you need to get either clear sign of 1.0685 breakout and then try to catch minor retracement or - wait for completion of 3-Drive pattern, if 1.0685 support will survive and EUR will turn down.

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

(Reuters) - The euro nursed losses in Asian trading on Wednesday, pressured by political woes in Europe ahead of elections that checked its recent ascent against the dollar.

France's presidential race sank deeper into the mire of scandal after centrist Emmanuel Macron was forced to deny an extramarital affair and conservative Francois Fillon pressed on with efforts to salvage his reputation after accusations that he used taxpayers' money to pay his wife for work she may not have done.

Uncertainty about the two rounds of the election on April 23 and May 7 drove the premium that investors demand for holding French over German government debt to its highest for almost four years.

Opinion polls show Macron slightly ahead of Fillon in the first round, but behind far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen. She has vowed to pull France out of the euro zone and hold a vote on its membership in the European Union.

The euro was slightly lower on the day against the dollar at $1.0681 after falling as low as $1.0656 on Tuesday, its lowest since late January and well below last week's nearly two-month high of $1.0829.

Against the yen, the euro slipped 0.2 percent to 119.86 after dipping to 119.545 overnight, its lowest since Dec. 5.

Three-month euro risk reversal spreads on euro/dollar options widened to their largest levels in favor of euro puts - the right to sell the euro - since June 2016.

Adding to the mood of uncertainty, elections will also be held in the Netherlands, Germany and possibly Italy, and Greece faces a bailout review as talks between it, its European lenders and the International Monetary Fund on the country's bailout obligations have dragged on for months.

However, the dollar's gains are seen limited by the protectionist stance of U.S. President Donald Trump. Last week, Trump and a top adviser strongly criticized Japan, China and Germany, claiming they had all devalued their currencies to benefit their own countries.

"The uncertainty of the French presidential election is negative for the euro," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"But on the other hand, Trump's dollar policy is supporting euro-dollar. So with these two factors, I don't see a strong sense of direction at the moment."

The market shrugged off data showing Japan's current account surplus stood at 1.11 trillion yen ($9.88 billion) in December, below economists' median forecast for a surplus of 1.29 trillion yen in a Reuters poll.

The dollar was underpinned by news that China's foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly fell below the $3 trillion level last month for the first time in nearly six years, even as Beijing has tried to curb outflows by tightening capital controls.

The yuan lost more than 6 percent against the dollar last year, the most among major Asian currencies, even as Chinese banks fought to defend it, depleting China's foreign currency reserves. It is likely to come under more pressure as the U.S. Federal Reserve resumes hiking interest rates later this year.

The dollar erased early modest gains against the yen and slipped 0.2 percent to 112.23 yen . But it remained above its overnight low of 111.59 yen, its deepest nadir since late November, as investors awaited a meeting of U.S.-Japan leaders.

Trump will welcome Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on a U.S. visit later this week. Market participants await any remarks on currencies or on Japan's fiscal or monetary policies that might emerge from their meeting, although trade and defense issues are likely to be in the spotlight.

"They will probably try to explain about the trade relationship, so I don't think any surprises will come out, but it's still difficult to expect what Trump might say," said Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at IHS Markit in Tokyo.

"If Trump wants the U.S. to sell more cars in Japan, then currencies might come up in the discussion," she said.

So, on EUR situation slightly has changed as price has dropped below all Fib levels on hourly chart and was not able to stop at AB=CD target. Thus, our setup of 3-Drive Buy pattern mostly was destroyed, although chances on upward action are exist by far...

Thus, on daily chart - market still keeps harmonic retracement swing, stands above MPP and holds higher-low-higher high tendency. So, at least theoretically upward tendency is still valid, although trend has turned bearish already:

Still, on 4-hour chart we see some signs of weakness, that later could lead to greater bearish consequences. Thus, market has reached WPS1 and could form H&S pattern. To be honest guys, altough situation could change significantly - instead of upside continuation to 1.0860 market could form H&S pattern and turn down - situation mostly has not changed for scalp traders. If you're searching for long entry - anyway you could use 1.0640 support and neckline as level where bullish reversal patterns could be formed. The only difference is adjusting of target - now it will be 1.0740 as a top of the shoulder, down from previous 1.0860 3-Drive pattern. But framework on position taking is the same...

On hourly chart we have some other minor bearish signs. Our falling wedge pattern has been broken down, also EUR has broken border of long-term channel and aleardy re-tested it...
Now market is forming pennant consolidation that could turn later to butterfly. Butterfly will let price to reach neckline and this is the pattern that scalper bulls could use for position taking.
Bearish dynamic pressure also gives us a hint of another small leg down to 1.0640-1.0650 area:

That's being said - although theoretically market still keeps valid upside tendency on daily chart, on intraday charts EUR is forming some signs of weakness. Thus, our trading plan till the end of the week:
1. reaching of neckline of H&S by puny butterfly on hourly chart;
2. Forming of right shoulder of H&S pattern;
3. Monitoring of validity of H&S pattern around 1.0750 area - whether it will turn down as it should to, or H&S will fail...

So, as you can see, 1 and 2 points suggest action to 1.0650 first and then up to 1.0750...

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

(Reuters) - The dollar managed to stabilize on Thursday after the previous session's slide, although lingering risk aversion pinned Treasury yields near multi-week lows and restrained the greenback's bounce.

The euro was down 0.1 percent at $1.0678 edging back towards a one-week low of $1.0640 reached on Wednesday on heightened European political woes.

The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 112.265 yen after nearing a 10-week low of 111.590 the previous day. The greenback was hit as Treasury yields slid sharply overnight.

The dollar index against a basket of major currencies was up 0.1 percent at 100.370 .DXY.

The index rose to a 14-year high of 103.820 in January on hopes of large fiscal spending and other pro-growth policies under U.S. President Donald Trump. But it has dropped since of late on Trump's protectionist trade rhetoric and perceived support for a weaker dollar.

"We are now in a phase where downside risks to the dollar has become predominant, with the drop in Treasury yields having gained further momentum this week due to perceived European political risks," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior forex strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

Treasury yields were stuck near a multiple-week low set on Wednesday.

Buying of U.S. Treasuries gathered steam this week as expectations for a March interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve have waned.

Uncertainty about European politics has also boosted Treasuries. Recent polls have shown German Chancellor Angela Merkel falling behind a candidate from the country's Social Democrats in this year's elections. Polls have also suggested France's Marine Le Pen, who has championed pulling the country out of the European Union, is gaining ground.

Knocked by the slide in U.S. yields, the dollar has also come under pressure against the safe-haven Japanese yen in the wake of geopolitical concerns.

The yen could be poised for further gains should Trump reiterate his opposition to a strong dollar when he meets Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a two-day summit starting on Friday.

"Trump may opt to take a tough stance against Japan amid the perceived political chaos. Taking such a stance would also set him up to talk tough with China," Ishikawa at IG Securities said.

Trump and his top trade adviser Peter Navarro criticized Germany, Japan and China last week, saying the trading partners were engaged in devaluing their currencies to the disadvantage of the United States.

The currency market also kept a wary eye on gyrations in the Japanese government bond market, where yields climbed to one-year highs last week before the Bank of Japan arrested the rise by conducting a series of debt-buying operations.

The dollar gained steadily against the yen last year on expectations that U.S.-Japanese interest rate differentials would widen. Last week's rise in Japanese yields dented the dollar by challenging this dynamic.

"The recent fluctuations in JGBs have added to the currency market's list of concerns. It was a little unexpected as few thought JGBs would play such a role," said Masashi Murata, senior strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

"But while such risk events may lead to yen buying, it is unlikely to constitute a long-term trend as we have to keep in mind that the global economy is expanding steadily."

The New Zealand dollar was down 0.8 percent at $0.7201, pulling away from a three-month high of $0.7375 hit earlier this week.

The kiwi fell after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates at a record low of 1.75 percent on Thursday, as expected, and said that any tightening in policy might be at least two years away.

The Australian dollar suffered collateral damage and last traded at $0.7615 , down 0.4 percent on the day.

So, guys, let's keep up with our EUR journey. On daily - nothing really new to comment. Price stands around MPP and still inside the range of harmonic retracement:

Most interesting situation for us stands on intraday charts. It seems that we were correct yesterday, when we've talked on possible H&S pattern. Now you can see that neckline has been tested and we start to watch for right shoulder appearance:

Our hourly butterfly has worked perfect. Those of you, who wanted but missed long entry by this butterfly could have second attempt right now, as butterfly is becoming a part of puny reverse H&S pattern right around neckline of bigger one. Target of this minor pattern stands around 1.0750 - WPP and top of left shoulder. And this is whant we really want...

 

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

(Reuters) - The dollar was buoyant on Friday, rising to a 1-1/2-week high versus the yen, on comments by U.S. President Donald Trump that he would announce the most ambitious tax reform plan since the Reagan era in the next few weeks.

The dollar was knocked back against the euro and yen this month as Trump focused on protectionist trade policies and appeared to back a weaker dollar since taking office.

On Thursday, Trump finally spoke on stimulus measures, promising a "phenomenal" tax plan in a White House meeting with airline executives, although he did not offer specifics other than citing the need to a lower tax burden on businesses.

The dollar index against a basket of major currencies was steady at 100.610 after touching 100.710 its highest in three days.

The index was poised to rise 0.8 percent on the week, although it was still some distance from the 14-year peak of 103.820 scaled early in January.

"Recently, the dollar has been caught between uncertainty towards Bank of Japan policy and U.S.-Japan currency diplomacy on one hand, and hopes for U.S. tax reform on the other. The dollar's surge was straightforward reaction to developments in the latter," said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan FX strategist at BOA Merrill Lynch.

The euro was little changed at $1.0666 after losing 0.4 percent the previous day. The common currency was on track to shed more than 1 percent on the week, during which it was dogged by perceived political risks facing the euro zone.

The dollar extended its overnight rally and rose to a nine-day high of 113.800 yen

The greenback soared 1.2 percent against the yen the previous day as U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply in the wake of Trump's comments. Treasury yields had until Thursday declined steadily to multi-week lows, pushing the dollar to a 10-week trough of 111.590 yen.

Market focus turned to the two-day summit between President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe starting later on Friday.

Of concern to rejuvenated dollar bulls is the possibility of Trump reiterating his opposition to a strong dollar, and the financial markets are paying particular attention to how much currency policies are discussed at the summit.

Trump and his top trade adviser Peter Navarro criticized Germany, Japan and China last week, saying the trading partners were engaged in devaluing their currencies to the disadvantage of the United States.

"Currency policy may not be a dominant topic at the summit, and that would be positive for the dollar," Yamada at BOA Merrill Lynch said.

A senior U.S. official said while currency manipulation could come up in the talks, it was not at the top of Trump's list of topics at the summit.

"The summit may be a quick attempt by Japan to deal with pressure from the United States to allow the yen to appreciate," said Makoto Noji, senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was up 0.4 percent at $0.7653 on upbeat Chinese trade data. The Aussie is often used as a liquid proxy for China-related trades.

The New Zealand dollar edged up 0.2 percent to $0.7199, stabilizing somewhat after sliding 1.1 percent the previous day as the country's central bank extinguished hopes that a rate hike would happen sooner rather than later.

As we've discussed yesterday - NZD was forming B&B "Buy" setup on daily chart. Now technically all preliminary steps are done and we need just one minor detail - reversal pattern on intraday chart.
On daily - we have thrust up, NZD has reached major fib support and MPP within 2 closes below 3x3 DMA:

On hourly chart we also see that NZD has completed 1.618 AB-CD target that creates Agreement support with daily 3/8 Fib level:

Now we could act twofold. Some traders do not wait for reversal patterns on intraday charts and take position as soon as B&B stands in place. Others, and me personally prefer to get also supportive reversal pattern and use it to take position. Right now, it seems that NZD could form reverse H&S pattern here, as bottom stands @ 1.618 extension of shoulder.
Also, guys, it seems that B&B will become just temporary relief in downward action, as current week is reversal one and it stands out from broken long-term support trend line of weekly chart.
B&B target stands around 0.73 Fib level so, it is not small potential...