FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 15-19, 2016

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
Messages
18,564
Fundamentals

(Reuters) - The dollar rose on Friday after data showed U.S. consumer spending appeared to have regained its mojo in January, supporting the possibility the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates as other central banks ease policy.

The solid U.S. retail sales boosted the dollar against the Japanese yen , which had been the primary beneficiary of global growth fears that have persisted through much of the year.

The dollar had fallen to a 15-month low against the yen and was on track for its biggest weekly decline against the Japanese currency since 2008 after falling four straight days this week.

That was the most the dollar has fallen against the yen in back-to-back weeks since October 1998, when the two-week drop was more than 14 percent.

"We are expecting the dollar to weaken somewhat in the near term before eventually continuing to strengthen more broadly over the medium to long term," said Eric Viloria, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

Viloria said he expects policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and other central banks that have adopted negative interest rates or are actively easing policy to make the dollar a good long-term bet.

Friday's strong U.S. data backed statements from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley this week that suggested the Fed has not changed its thinking on the rate hike program it began in December.

"The theme of policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of the world's central banks is still an intact theme," said Thierry Albert Wizman, global interest rates and currencies strategist at Macquarie Limited in New York.

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday the government would take necessary steps to deal with currency volatility, the minister's strongest hint of intervention since the yen began its surge this month.

The dollar fell below 111 yen on Thursday to hit its lowest level since October 2014, triggering market speculation that Tokyo could conduct yen-selling intervention to prevent a further yen spike from hurting the export-reliant economy.

We have agreed at G7 and G20 that sudden foreign exchange moves are undesirable," Aso told reporters at a post-cabinet meeting news conference.

"Recent foreign exchange moves have been very rough. I am very nervously watching these moves and will take appropriate steps as necessary."

In response to the question of whether Japan intervened on Thursday, Aso said that is not something that a finance minister comments on.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policies, known as "Abenomics", rely on a weak yen to push up corporate earnings and to help generate inflation by raising import prices.

Abe has also repeatedly touted the benefits of a rising stock market, which bolsters corporate sentiment and generates positive returns for individual investors.

However, some economists worry that Abe will struggle to come up with ways to stimulate the economy now that stocks and the yen are moving against government policy.

Aso also said he hopes the Group of 20 finance leaders gathering in Shanghai later this month will consider a global policy response in the wake of the recent market turmoil.

A global stock market sell-off and a rising yen threaten to hurt corporate earnings, weaken sentiment and slow inflation, which would undermine the Japanese government's efforts to revitalise the economy and strengthen domestic demand.

"I want to consider if there are ways that the G20 countries can cooperate in response to recent market turmoil," Aso said.

Group of 20 finance ministers will meet at the end of February in Shanghai, China, which holds the rotating presidency of the group, to survey the world's economic outlook with its risks.

There is a lot at stake, because China's economic slowdown, a collapse in oil prices, doubts about the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes and the Bank of Japan's adoption of negative rates have roiled financial markets.

The combination of all these factors has raised concerns that the global economy is much weaker than anticipated, which is driving asset flows from stocks into bonds and into the yen, which are often perceived as a safe-haven assets.


On recent CFTC data we show confirmation of our thoughts that possible "run-to-quality" has started. COT report shows increase of net long position on Yen. As rate of yen has increased - open interest mostly stands the same. It means that shorts that were closed - have been replaced by new longs opened last week. This support bullish sentiment on JPY:
upload_2016-2-13_11-36-51.png


In general, guys, last week nothing has happened that could put the shadow on our understanding on current situation. Events that we've discussed 2 months ago are starting to come true. Particularly - geopolitical situation is very fragile, with a lot of "hot points" around the globe. Not just Middle East, but Ukraine and Europe as well. Global economy becomes weaker and doesn't return back to normal evolution way. Mostly it still stands under pressure of 2008 crisis. Only "free" money from QE was able to push stocks higher but as production level, corporate earnings, consumption still stand unstable and do not improve correspondingly to stock market % growth. Other words speaking - upside action on stocks was mostly artificial within last 1-2 years. Sooner or later this tune should over.
We think that world stands at the edge of drastic changes as in political as economical environment. That's why this does not give a chance that "run-to-quality" should finish any time soon.

Technicals
Monthly


Both targets - 115.40 and 113.50 have been hit within just single week. It means that DRPO "Sell" is done. Action of such large scale could happen only with support global geopolitical or economical factors and demand huge funds flow, as we've discussed above. At the same time it means that big flows of this kind could just finish in a blink of an eye - suddenly and usually they have a tendency to be continued with medium-term or even long-term period.

Fortunately or unfortunately but right now, guys, we can't just be focused on pure technical, market mechanics picture. We have to take in consideration major political events, since they will impact on market sentiment and right now Yen mostly is driven by sentiment. At the same time technical analysis has a feature to coincide or even predict some shifts in global events. We've seen this many times, when we do not know what event will happen but foresee market reaction on this. Last time it was during Paris attack.

So, as you know yesterday, in Munich, major geopolitical players have agreed to stop fire against "Moderate opposition" in Syria from 1st of the March. This agreement has no relation to terrorist organizations as ISIL and others... As boiling process on Middle East will get some relief of steam within nearest 2 weeks - this probably could give some relief to safe-haven assets demand as well. Especially if BoJ will combine geopolitical relief with direct intervention do chill out hot overextended purchases on national currency.

Technical picture relatively confirms this. Market right now stands at upper border of very strong support area. This area includes monthly oversold and K-support around 107-108 area. Although trend is bearish, but market could pass this level as it does not exist only if WW III will start. Definitely BoJ also see this support and this is very good area to hit bears' stops and launch intervention.

At the same time we have to acknowledge that Yen has dropped below YPS1 and this points on existing of new long-term bear trend on this currency pair. Consequently we treat any upside action in short-term perspective only as a bounce, but not as reversal. For reversal it needs to reverse geopolitical situation but hardly it will happen any time soon, especially within 1-2 weeks.

That's being said, monthly analysis leads us to conclusion that upside retracement or at least stabilization is possible in nearest time. Also Yen has rather wide range to do it - 107-110 area to stop dropping and form some reversal pattern. Taking in consideration that market right now stands at 113 - we still could take short-term short positions by patterns whatever will be formed, but our ceil for trading is 107-108 area.
jpy_m_15_02_16.png


Weekly

Here market has exceeded our most brave expectations and dropped almost to 110 area. Trend is bearish here and I do not have MPP since all of them have been broken down already.

Here we have two major points to discuss. First is H&S pattern. Yen has hit it's minimal destination - AB=CD 114 target but has not stopped here and dropped even lower. It seems that only oversold pressure has stopped market from collapse right to 161.8% target. Taking in consideration all stuff that we've discussed above and the fact that market stands below 100% AB=CD target - this leads us to conclusion that market should continue action to 1.618 extension still, around 108. Hardly big relief on monthly chart will happen before market will complete H&S ultimate target.

Thus, we probably could try to take short positions by some patterns that could be formed during coming week, but we should be extra careful with overbought level and we have to be ready to close position fast is something will go wrong. It needless to say that BoJ intervention will play against us. So pay huge attention to your stop orders.

Finally - take a look at 108 target agrees with monthly K-support and puzzle gets another frame here.
jpy_w_15_02_16.png


Daily

Our best friend here, guys, is of course bearish thrust. Although we already has some kind of bullish directional pattern on weekly - which is bullish Stretch that theoretically should trigger upside down. Here we could get valuable add-on, since thrust is potential foundation for patterns.

But overall situation is not as simple as it seems. I'm worry that BoJ will try to use this upside market power to increase the intervention impact and safe it's own money. If we wouldn't have BoJ in mind - we probably been watching for some near standing levels, say, 115. But with BoJ in mind, I probably will watch for 116.50-117.50.

There are a lot of arguments that call us to focus on this level. First is massive oversold on all time frames. When market stands deeply oversold on weekly - it easily could trigger retracement right up to daily overbought. This is like shaking the boat - reaction is equal to counter-reaction. Second - with possible geopolitical relief, bearish pressure could become weaker and market will get more freedom with upside action.
Third moment is potential intervention. If it will happen - market will show significant action, definitely to 117 area. And finally - resistance. 116.50-117.50 is very nice resistance level that includes K-resistance, WPR1, former neckline, overbought. Retracement up to WPR1 seems logical in bear trend.

That's being said we will be watching for closer levels as well, but let's focus on this one. Since there are too many reasons stand in favor of it.
Oh, yes... All this speech is on B&B "Sell" of course...

jpy_d_15_02_16.png



Hourly

Currently guys, we can foresee action only to first Fib level around 115 area and to WPP. This could be done by AB-CD action and butterfly "Sell". But it is very probable that later this action will shift to bigger scale pattern or artificial push will happen from BoJ:
jpy_1h_15_02_16.png


Conclusion
We have bearish view on USD/JPY (bullish on JPY) in long-term perspective. As techincal as fundamental factors show possible further Yen appreciation. The core of our long-term view is investors' disappointment in BoJ efforts to make Yen weaker. This is important also because BoJ has applied all major tools to weaken the Yen. But based on recent reaction this still is not very successful. Additional pressure on Yen comes from geopolitical global situation that makes any BoJ efforts phantom.
At the same time Yen is approaching to strong monthly support around 107-108 area where medium term upside action could happen.
The major task for us is to try take short position in most safe place and escape intervention impact from BoJ, that has big chance to happen on coming week. Don't forget that Monday is President's Day holiday in US...


The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
 
Good morning,

(Reuters) - The dollar stood tall against the yen and euro on Tuesday as a bounce in equities and crude oil prices tempered global risk aversion that battered the greenback last week.

The dollar has also gained more than 1 percent versus the Swiss franc this week after slipping to a 4-month low on Thursday against the safe-haven currency.

"I believe market pessimism, particularly towards the U.S. economy, that took hold at the start of the year was exaggerated," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"Thanks in addition to the stance shown by the Japanese authorities to stem the yen's appreciation, I see the dollar recovering towards 120 yen. But we will need to see additional factors that point to a U.S. economic recovery."

In wake of the yen's recent rally, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Monday that Tokyo would take action against "excessive currency volatility."

Still, in the longer-run dollar/yen and the currency market as a whole was expected to remain hostage to nervous swings in global risk appetite.

"It will be moves in the broader overseas markets, not domestic factors, that will keep dictating dollar/yen," said Junichi Ishikawa, market analyst at IG Securities in Tokyo.

""The authorities can draw a line in the sand, for example at 110 yen, and defend it through verbal or actual intervention. But they can only slow the dollar's fall given the variety of factors impacting the market currently."

The common currency was also weighed down after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Monday the central bank was ready to ease policy further in March, highlighting risks from financial market volatility, a global slowdown in growth, and low oil prices

Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar touched an 11-day peak following gains in crude oil prices. The Aussie rose 0.4 percent to $0.7166 with the ebb in risk aversion also providing the lift.

The Canadian dollar touched C$1.3763 to the dollar, its strongest in 11 days.

Improving risk sentiment, European shares rose sharply for the second consecutive session on Monday, boosted by a rebound in banking stocks.

Shares in Asia followed suit amid a continuing rebound in oil, with Japan's Nikkei <.N225> climbing 0.8 percent to add to Monday's 8 percent surge. [.T]

Sterling remained under pressure after Bank of England policymaker Ian McCafferty said inflationary pressures had fallen, although he still expected the next interest rate move to be up.


So, as currencies that we've disccused last week still stand with our scenarios but do not complete setups yet - we will bring brief update on CAD. Mostly it stands in relation to short-term perspectives.

Last time when we have spoken on Loonie -we've expected deep retracement down (on USD/CAD) by technical reasons - market has hit strong resistance, overbought and has formed perfect bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart that suggests drop to 1.3550 area and K-support.
As Crude Oil price has risen well, CAD also almost has hit this destination point, but not quite yet. On weekly chart market is oversold and it makes difficult fast action down, although Crude Oil is growing. But if we will measure the length of engulfing pattern and count it down - we will see that target has not been hit yet:
cad_w_16_02_16.png


On daily/intraday chart market is not at oversold and stands with long-term AB-CD action. AB=CD target has been completed on 3rd of Feb, then upside bounce has followed but now market again is turning down.
Pay attention to acceleration that has happened at the eve of AB=CD completion. This is bearish sign.
As market returns back to 100% extenion, it means that it could follow to next target - 1.618 that stands around 1.34 area.
At the same time weekly target agrees with weekly K-support around 1.3540 and take a look - retracement from most recent upside swing also points on 1.3540 as 1.27 extension of it., while 1.618 one coincides with corresponding AB-CD target.
I'm not sure that we definitely will get butterfly here but this is not a big deal since extension will be valid anyway. Also we do not sure that market definitely will hit 1.34, since it stands below weekly K-support and significant events will need to trigger this drop. Thus, most probable detination till the end of the week will be 1.3540 area and this will be completion of our weekly research that we've at the end of January.
cad_4h_16_02_16.png
 
Last edited:
Good morning,

(Reuters) - The yen retook some ground against the dollar on Wednesday after a recent rebound in crude oil prices fizzled and revived demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency.

The greenback tumbled to a 16-month low below 111 yen last week as a global rout in equities and commodities as well as reduced expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve boosted the Japanese currency.

The dollar then bounced sharply as risk aversion subsided but remains susceptible to swings in sentiment, as seen by its reaction to Tuesday's drop in crude oil.

A rebound in crude oil prices from 13-year lows was cut short Tuesday after top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia dashed expectations of an outright supply reduction, agreeing only to freeze output if other big exporters joined them.

While oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, they languished below Tuesday's intraday highs. Asian equities slipped 0.5 percent, suggesting that risk sentiment remained fragile amid concerns about the outlook for global growth.

"Dollar/yen will continue to watch movements in risk assets like crude oil and equities, for direction. During 'risk off' phases the yen continues to show the strongest reaction. The dollar approached the 115 yen threshold recently and this also makes it easier for participants to sell the currency," said Shin Kadota, chief Japan forex strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.1165 . Against the yen, the common currency eased 0.1 percent to 127.04 , down from Tuesday's high of 128.16 yen.

The market will look to U.S. housing and industrial production data and the minutes of the Fed's January policy meeting due later in the day for cues.

Over the next month, a focal point for the dollar against the yen is the possibility of more monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan, said Tan Teck Leng, FX strategist for UBS chief investment office Wealth Management in Singapore.

"The very reason why they decided to adopt negative interest rates in January, when dollar/yen was at 118, is because they wanted to encourage wage growth in 'shunto' taking place this month and next month," Tan said, referring to wage negotiations in Japan.

If the dollar is stuck near its current levels against the yen by the time of the BOJ's policy meeting on March 14-15, the BOJ might adopt further stimulus, Tan added.

Whether such additional BOJ monetary easing would reap much benefit is unclear, however.

The BOJ's radical adoption of negative interest rates, which came into effect on Tuesday, is already being deemed a failure by financial markets, highlighting Tokyo's lack of options to spur growth as global markets sputter.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell 0.2 percent to $0.7093 .

The Canadian dollar last traded at C$1.3869 versus the U.S. dollar, having pulled back from a 12-day high of C$1.3707 touched on Tuesday.



So, today on EUR... It stands among the assets where we expect 2-leg retracement. Our count looks like was correct - as EUR has hit important targets on daily chart it has turned to downward action. It was AB=CD, butterfly, major Fib level and weekly overbought. On daily chart most probable destination level is 1.1020-1.1050 - K-support, former top and oversold. Here we should decide - would we like to take another long position or not:
eur_d_17_02_16.png

But now major question around retracment - something should trigger this action down. And this "something" looks like H&S pattern on 4-hour chart:
eur_4h_17_02_16.png

As you can see most part of it has been completed already. As EUR stands around neckline, Fib level, YPP and WPS1 - it's time to start forming right shoulder. It seems that it should be finished around 1.1240-1.1260 area - somewhere around WPP as harmony suggests...

Hourly chart points approx. on the same area. As we've got something like Double Bottom - its target stands in area between 50% and 61.8% Fib levels and WPP. This is 1.1245-1.1275 area.
eur_1h_17_02_16.png


That's being said - scalpers could watch for right shoulder completion point and decide about possible short entry with 200+ pips potential. While daily traders will wait for daily K-support.
 
Last edited:
Good morning,

(Reuters) - The Canadian dollar held at two-week highs on Thursday, having benefited hugely from a jump in oil prices, while an absence of fresh cues in minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting saw the greenback shuffle sideways.

Investors warmed to the Canadian currency after oil prices surged after Iran voiced support for a Russia-Saudi-led move to freeze production.

Although Iran gave no commitment it would curb its own output to deal with a market glut, signs of cooperation between rival producers helped to boost battered oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising to around $35 per barrel from this week's low below $32.

Some other commodity currencies took heart from the loonie's performance.

The New Zealand dollar popped back above 66 cents , pulling well away from a two-week trough of $0.6545 touched on Tuesday. The Malaysian dollar also rose 1.4 percent .

The Australian dollar, however, fell 0.4 percent to $0.7158 after the local employment data showed an unexpected fall in payrolls and rise in the jobless rate.

The rebound in oil prices coupled with strong U.S. industrial production data helped markets recover from recent jitters. European and U.S. stocks ended higher, while most emerging market currencies also firmed.

Mexico's peso outperformed after the central bank ambushed markets with an interest rate hike and intervened directly in the market to support the currency.

In contrast, Venezuela devalued its bolivar and announced a new system for setting the exchange rate.

The dollar and euro remained in consolidation mode against their Japanese peer, having found a floor at multi-month lows last week.

The greenback fetched 114.00 yen , while the euro bought 126.99 yen , holding above their troughs of 110.985 and 125.795 respectively.

Making the rounds in the market early in Asia, the Nikkei Asian Review reported that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has ruled out more spending stimulus for now.

Still, traders are speculating that the Group of 20 countries may seek measures to boost growth at their finance chiefs' meeting later this month.

"It is unlikely that China will devalue the yuan sharply for now ahead of the G20. I think the market will likely be in a holding pattern until the G20," said a trader at a European bank.

Minutes of the Fed's Jan. 26-27 meeting underlined the central bank's unease over the global outlook.

"The cautious tone from the January FOMC meeting minutes highlight that the downside risks to the U.S. growth outlook had increased," said Elias Haddad, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank.

"We still expect the Fed to resume raising rates in June, which will continue to bode well for the USD."

The dollar was little moved against the euro, which stood at $1.1132 . Just a week ago, the common currency scaled a 3-1/2 month peak of $1.1377. The dollar index was little changed at 96.804.



So, as we have nice action on Crude Oil, let's take a look at CAD. 2 days ago we've come to conclusion that market is still not ready for upside reversal or bounce, but needs to move slighly lower to complete weekly engulfing target and reach K-support. Now market stands very close to this achievement. For us it means that our bearish trend is coming to an end and we will start searching context for long entry for coming 1-2 weeks:
cad_w_18_02_16.png

On daily chart we see multiple bearish grabber that support our idea and market should take out recent lows. Our weekly target stands around 1.3540:
cad_d_18_02_16.png

At the same time on 4-hour chart we have some important targets around 1.34. They are 1.618 AB-CD and Butterfly. What chances are that they will be hit? We suspect that this will depend on amount of stops that were placed below the lows. They could push market to 1.34.
But, if you hold shorts - take 70-100% profit around 1.27 targets and 1.3540 area. If want take this risk still to keep position till 1.34 - do this with 30% of your position and tight stop.
BTW - probably we will be able to use this butterfly as background for long entry later in the week or on next week, as soon as bearish rally will take the pause:
cad_4h_18_02_16.png
 
Last edited:
Good morning,

(Reuters) - The yen gained broadly on Friday, hitting a fresh 2-1/2 year high on the euro thanks in part to renewed demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency as crude oil and equities wobbled again.

Traders said a fresh fall in oil prices had unsettled equity markets, prompting the flight to safety. Japan's Nikkei was last down more than 2 percent.

The euro was little changed at $1.1119 after slipping to a two-week low of $1.1071 . It was on track to lose 1.2 percent on the week.

"I think the euro has further downside. The currency faces political risk as economic woes and the refugee crisis cloud the EU's future," said Masashi Murata, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.

While prospects of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank is also putting the euro on the defensive, the impact of actual loosening is likely to be short-lived, Murata added.

Minutes of the European Central Bank's January meeting showed some policymakers advocated the need to act pre-emptively in the face of new threats to growth.

In contrast, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said the U.S. central bank should stick with its plan to raise interest rates gradually, adding his outlook has changed little since December.

The diverging policy pathways between major central banks have been highlighted as a cause for heightened market volatility.

The Australian dollar slipped after Reserve Bank of Australia board member John Edwards reportedly told the Wall Street Journal that the currency was too high, and that there were growing risks of it appreciating as other central banks adopt negative interest rates.

The Aussie was down 0.8 percent at $0.7098 . It fell to a seven-year low of $0.6827 in mid-January amid a sharp deterioration in global risk sentiment but had crept higher since.

Sterling managed to firm slightly as markets hope a deal can be reached at a summit where Britain is seeking more favourable terms for its EU membership.

Prime Minister David Cameron appealed to EU leaders to help him settle the question of Britain's European Union membership for a generation by agreeing a "credible" deal he can sell to the British public to stay in the bloc.

The pound was up 0.1 percent at $1.4335 , pulling further away from Wednesday's trough of $1.4235. The euro dipped below 77.50 pence , retreating from a one-year high near 79.00 pence set a week ago.

"We will be watching the outcome of the EU Leaders' Summit on Friday for a successful UK deal, with most officials expressing optimism at the start of the meetings on Thursday," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a note to clients.

"This would allow EURGBP to unwind some of the Brexit risk premium that has been recently been into the cross."


Today, guys our speech will be on JPY. Other currencies behave flat mostly. If you remember our major conclusion based on weekly research was: JPY hardly will create new low and upside retracement is more probable. Retracement should be 2-leg, and depth will depend on BoJ. If it will take intervention - market could reach even 117.50 Fib resistance".

So, it's Friday now, we didn't get any intervention. Thus, our B&B "Sell" has started from nearest Fib resistance @115 area and it's mostly completed. At the same time this action doesn't cancel possilbe 2nd leg of upside action. Currently it seems that some shape of AB=CD is possible, but we can't totally exclude something like DRPO "Buy" (Look-alike) or Double Bottom on intraday charts. Market is not quite ready yet for downward continuation. Only some external driver could push it down and break all techical factors.
jpy_d_19_02_16.png


On 4-hour chart we see B&B target and possible 2nd leg of upside action. As you can see it coincides with natural support/resistance area and daily overbought:
jpy_4h_19_02_16.png


Upisde reversal (if it will be AB=CD, of course), should start somewhere from 112-112.50 area. It depends on whether market will turn due butterfly or will try still to hit 1.618 AB-CD target.
jpy_1h_19_02_16.png

At the same time, guys, we do not care much how it will happen. What is really important for us is final point of this retracement, since we want to re-establish bearish daily positions here.
 
Last edited:
audusd-mn1-international-capital-markets.png


Hey Sive!

I hope its ok if I post this here even if its not USD/JPY.
I think I may have found a bullish grabber on the Monthly AUD/USD (The red line is the MACDP).
Would you agree that it is a grabber and if it is one does it suggest taking out of the top @0.737 or even the one above 0.80?

Ian
 
Would you agree that it is a grabber and if it is one does it suggest taking out of the top @0.737 or even the one above 0.80?
Hi Ian,

Sure, you could post here any charts and analysis. Although we've prepared weekly research on JPY - it doesn't mean that we should discuss and dedicate whole week to JPY only. This is just thread for current week.

on my chart there is no penetration of MACDP. Anyway, we have also daily picture that suggests approximately the same upside action.
 
Oh so to qualify as a Grabber, MACDP must be penetrated first(with a close above again) and not only touched?

Thanks I was not aware of that! Then there would be no Grabber on Monthly AUD/USD just a touch of MACDP correct?
 
Oh so to qualify as a Grabber, MACDP must be penetrated first(with a close above again) and not only touched?

Thanks I was not aware of that! Then there would be no Grabber on Monthly AUD/USD just a touch of MACDP correct?
"Touch" is also grabber. But on my chart no touch, no penetration. Low stands above MACDP.
 
"Touch" is also grabber. But on my chart no touch, no penetration. Low stands above MACDP.

You are totally right It came so close I saw it as a visual touch but when I look at numbers the low of the month is at 0.68270 and MACDP stands at 0.68105 ... Sorry I thought I had something.
But very good education as I now know that a touch is a grabber and that I need to become very very exact with this kind of analysis! :)

Thanks!
 
Back
Top