Venelin
Master Sergeant
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Hi Sive, the markings that I use are build in MT5 plarform
FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 19-23, 2018
- Thread starter Sive Morten
- Start date
Hi Sive, the markings that I use are build in MT5 plarform
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,659
Good morning, guys,
N
So in weekend we've said that US yields could grow not just due Fed policy but due cheaping of USD and growing erosion of its value. In fact, here is Tokyo trader said (in Reuters article) what' I've meant in my research:
“The dollar has been falling continuously, but with changing themes. At the moment, a projected increase in U.S. debt issuance, a reduction in Fed bond buying and bulging U.S. fiscal deficit are the main focus,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank. “That should mean U.S. long-term yields will remain high while the dollar will stay cheap,” he said.
It means that now we also have to keep an eye on US bond auction results and demand from investors. Poor demand will increase inflation expectations and will press more on USD as real USD return will be negative:
Stephen Innes, head of trading in Asia-Pacific for Oanda in Singapore, said there seemed to be some short-covering in the dollar in the wake of its recent fall.
He added, however, that the dollar could come under pressure if this week’s U.S. government bond auctions were to show sluggish investor demand for U.S. debt.
I also really thankful to everybody for interesting discussion of EUR perspectives. So, it is still unclear since opinions are different on short-term perspectives. Major question stands with current move down - either this is just retracement before another upside leg to ~ 1.2650 area (5th wave according to our EW viewers), reverse H&S pattern or, downside action will continue here.
So, on Monday we've got indecision session and in short-term it will depend on breakout direction.
Now market stands at major 1/2 support, also could proceed to 5/8 but I think that until we will not get a resonse on major support, hardly we will understand what is going on:
Personally I intend to wait for upside retracement. Because now we do not have any patterns - neither bearish nor bullish. We haven't got our B&B "Sell" on Monday... That's why, if upside retracement will be furious - it will tell us stay aside from any bearish position. While gradual retracement will confirm idea to go short. Besides, I would like to get patterns... a kind of AB-CD, "222" Sell, something, that will make our trading easier...Now we do not have any from both sides, just minor candlesticks, such as morning star here:
N
So in weekend we've said that US yields could grow not just due Fed policy but due cheaping of USD and growing erosion of its value. In fact, here is Tokyo trader said (in Reuters article) what' I've meant in my research:
“The dollar has been falling continuously, but with changing themes. At the moment, a projected increase in U.S. debt issuance, a reduction in Fed bond buying and bulging U.S. fiscal deficit are the main focus,” said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank. “That should mean U.S. long-term yields will remain high while the dollar will stay cheap,” he said.
It means that now we also have to keep an eye on US bond auction results and demand from investors. Poor demand will increase inflation expectations and will press more on USD as real USD return will be negative:
Stephen Innes, head of trading in Asia-Pacific for Oanda in Singapore, said there seemed to be some short-covering in the dollar in the wake of its recent fall.
He added, however, that the dollar could come under pressure if this week’s U.S. government bond auctions were to show sluggish investor demand for U.S. debt.
I also really thankful to everybody for interesting discussion of EUR perspectives. So, it is still unclear since opinions are different on short-term perspectives. Major question stands with current move down - either this is just retracement before another upside leg to ~ 1.2650 area (5th wave according to our EW viewers), reverse H&S pattern or, downside action will continue here.
So, on Monday we've got indecision session and in short-term it will depend on breakout direction.
Now market stands at major 1/2 support, also could proceed to 5/8 but I think that until we will not get a resonse on major support, hardly we will understand what is going on:
Personally I intend to wait for upside retracement. Because now we do not have any patterns - neither bearish nor bullish. We haven't got our B&B "Sell" on Monday... That's why, if upside retracement will be furious - it will tell us stay aside from any bearish position. While gradual retracement will confirm idea to go short. Besides, I would like to get patterns... a kind of AB-CD, "222" Sell, something, that will make our trading easier...Now we do not have any from both sides, just minor candlesticks, such as morning star here:
Stag
Sergeant
- Messages
- 206
Labeling: there are professional tools like ELWAVE or Motivewave offering automated fully labeled charts and price target projections and many handy features, even scanning of trade set-ups on selected pairs, but be warned: automated labeling can be misleading more often than not. An experienced human eye performs much better. So I prefer manual labeling along with Kennedy channeling technique (the latter makes much easier your EW based life a lot). Tradingview also offers built-in support for this purpose free of charge:
Truncation: We have new highs and new lows on the charts so I think we have no truncation by definition. In an impulse wave a truncation occurs when wave 5 fails to make new price extreme beyond the end of wave 3. The fifth wave still unfolds as a five-wave structure but it is weak and often followed by a sharp reversal:
No new top/bottom: yes, this is a probability game and may happen, but this is a less probable scenario at time of writing.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,659
Good morning,
so another session has passed, what observations we could do today? Mostly I will focus on DXY now, but you could clone this on EUR and GBP as well. So, on DXY we do not have any shape of reverse H&S. Besides, on EUR, this setup now stands under question as downside action has broken all major Fib levels which hardly corresponds to idea of retracement with bullish trend. The same is on DXY.
Reaction on GBP was not as strong and now market is forming a kind of flat reverse H&S pattern on hourly chart. It means that retracement could happen today. This lets us to focus on DXY and EUR 4-hour charts where we have good thrusts and watch for B&B pattern. On DXY it should start somewhere around K-support area... For me it seems as most propriate way to act.
so another session has passed, what observations we could do today? Mostly I will focus on DXY now, but you could clone this on EUR and GBP as well. So, on DXY we do not have any shape of reverse H&S. Besides, on EUR, this setup now stands under question as downside action has broken all major Fib levels which hardly corresponds to idea of retracement with bullish trend. The same is on DXY.
Reaction on GBP was not as strong and now market is forming a kind of flat reverse H&S pattern on hourly chart. It means that retracement could happen today. This lets us to focus on DXY and EUR 4-hour charts where we have good thrusts and watch for B&B pattern. On DXY it should start somewhere around K-support area... For me it seems as most propriate way to act.
IanN
Private, 1st Class
- Messages
- 33
Here is a quarterly Chart of EUR/USD. Nothing special really but we have shifted bullish and we are closing to overbought and I mean quarterly Overbought gotta mean something or? 
https://1drv.ms/u/s!AnrbF0AMm1JwhoxczCW8uWTJz_xZmA
Oh yes we have bounced off the 25x5 but well, I think we all know that they bounce off these MAs as often as they just cross them...
Red is the MACD Predictor and the other lines are the DiNapoli MAs
I also made sure that its a real quarterly chart and not just 3 months... Thats a bit triky in Ninja Trader.
https://1drv.ms/u/s!AnrbF0AMm1JwhoxczCW8uWTJz_xZmA
https://1drv.ms/u/s!AnrbF0AMm1JwhoxczCW8uWTJz_xZmA
Oh yes we have bounced off the 25x5 but well, I think we all know that they bounce off these MAs as often as they just cross them...
Red is the MACD Predictor and the other lines are the DiNapoli MAs
I also made sure that its a real quarterly chart and not just 3 months... Thats a bit triky in Ninja Trader.
https://1drv.ms/u/s!AnrbF0AMm1JwhoxczCW8uWTJz_xZmA
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,659
Morning everybody,
So, its not much to say on markets. Yesterday's reaction on Fed minutes mostly was positive to USD and majors have dropped even more. Although we were correct in weekly research on direction and that it is probably a reversal, we haven't got any meaningful chance to join this drop as no even 3/8 retracement has been made.
Now EUR is coming to its floor of this week - 1.2225-1.2235 area which is neckline of our potential DT pattern, daily OS and 1/2 Fib support:
As you can see on 4-hour chart we haven't got B&B "Sell" as reaction yesterday was too fast and has not reached 3/8 Fib level. Here we have another two levels of support - WPS1 and Double Top AB-CD target. Both of them agree with the same daily 1.2225-1.2235 area.
If we will be correct on DT pattern, then target will stand around 1.19 area.
On GBP now we could return back to our daily major setup, which I showed you last week:
So, while on EUR we hardly will get something valuable, GBP still could provide some interesting setups, I suppose.
So, its not much to say on markets. Yesterday's reaction on Fed minutes mostly was positive to USD and majors have dropped even more. Although we were correct in weekly research on direction and that it is probably a reversal, we haven't got any meaningful chance to join this drop as no even 3/8 retracement has been made.
Now EUR is coming to its floor of this week - 1.2225-1.2235 area which is neckline of our potential DT pattern, daily OS and 1/2 Fib support:
As you can see on 4-hour chart we haven't got B&B "Sell" as reaction yesterday was too fast and has not reached 3/8 Fib level. Here we have another two levels of support - WPS1 and Double Top AB-CD target. Both of them agree with the same daily 1.2225-1.2235 area.
If we will be correct on DT pattern, then target will stand around 1.19 area.
On GBP now we could return back to our daily major setup, which I showed you last week:
So, while on EUR we hardly will get something valuable, GBP still could provide some interesting setups, I suppose.
Stag
Sergeant
- Messages
- 206
Though more than 3 different scenarios are valid at time of my post, a three-wave decline from the February top may have bottomed at today's low. Above 1.2360 would confirm a three wave structure bottomed at 1.2259. I’ve adjusted the labeling to allow for a larger wave 5 to be unfolding during the next couple of sessions, taking the form of an ending diagonal pattern (see red count).
An ending diagonal occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone too far too fast. Subwaves of an ED always subdivide into zigzags or double zigzags. Under this scenario, we are looking for a three-wave advance to complete red wave 3, which offers more potential upside during the next few sessions. That would likely be the case if prices exceeded 1.2415 in the recovery, completing wave "a" of an "abc" zigzag.
A surge below 1.2206 would negate the count I'm working with on the chart. Keep an eye on whether prices breach 1.2360. At time of writing we can use 1.2259 as working support for higher.
An ending diagonal occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone too far too fast. Subwaves of an ED always subdivide into zigzags or double zigzags. Under this scenario, we are looking for a three-wave advance to complete red wave 3, which offers more potential upside during the next few sessions. That would likely be the case if prices exceeded 1.2415 in the recovery, completing wave "a" of an "abc" zigzag.
A surge below 1.2206 would negate the count I'm working with on the chart. Keep an eye on whether prices breach 1.2360. At time of writing we can use 1.2259 as working support for higher.
Sive Morten
Special Consultant to the FPA
- Messages
- 18,659
Stag, could you share with some good material on EW, some books maybe. What personally you could recommend on EW practical learining?
To avoid unnesesary complication, something most practical.
I remember that I've started with G. Neely book ones. It was very detailed with a lot of nuances. But at those time, I was interesting more in other analysis technics and it was seemed too complicated for me.
And how long it was taken to get real practic results, i.e. to move from theory to practic.
Stag
Sergeant
- Messages
- 206
Very good questions, Sive, if only I had had somebody mentoring me when I had started.
1. Regarding the Wave Principle, its patterns, rules and guidelines:
- This is one of the best (essential, easy to follow)
- Sections of this book give typical price and time ratios of subwaves of pattern types and experimental probability data for rule of alternation, a valuable add-on found nowhere else
2. Next, look for these two from Jeffrey Kennedy:
- The Wave Principle Applied
- The Kennedy channeling technique (webinar)
3. Look for more from Jeffrey Kennedy, he is all about practice:
- Trading the line (series)
- How to spot trading opportunities (series)
- The best of traders' classrom
- Commodity trader's classroom
- How to spot trading opportunities (series)
- The best of traders' classrom
- Commodity trader's classroom
For me, it took a year until I realized it is not about perfect counting down to 1min charts - unless you want to show and share an idea with others. It took another year to form a solid practical basis with the help of Jeffrey Kennedy’s books and techniques.
I believe most people are not cut out for the Wave Principle, it takes too much work to make it serving you – if you ever reach that level at all. But don’t have to. I remind you all that analysis and trading represent two different skill sets. As Kennedy says, "skilled analysis is a mastery of observation, while successful trading is a mastery of self". You may be a great analyst, but that does not necessarily mean you will be a successful trader. You can be a successful trader without the Wave Principle.
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