FOREX PRO WEEKLY, February 27-03, 2017

Sive Morten

Special Consultant to the FPA
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Fundamentals

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell to a more than two-week low against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors doubted the likelihood of swift tax reform and a quick spending boost from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration.

On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggested that much work was still needed on key elements of a tax reform plan, one of the policies investors had anticipated would spur inflation and drive up U.S. interest rates.

Analysts noted that Federal Reserve meeting minutes released on Wednesday reinforced doubts about a rate hike next month since voting members showed much less urgency to tighten credit.

The dollar fell as much as 0.6 percent against the safe-haven yen to 111.95 yen. Its first dip below 112 yen since Feb. 9 put the greenback on track for its second straight weekly loss against the Japanese currency, of about 0.8 percent.

"Markets are sort of growing a lot more cautious on prospects for U.S. fiscal stimulus, and consequently I think they are now sceptical of the Fed hiking substantially over the next two years," Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at Credit Agricole in New York said.

The euro slipped 0.2 percent against the dollar in afternoon trading to a session low of $1.0558. That put it on course for a 0.5 percent decline since Friday, for the third straight weekly slide.

The euro's modest drop helped put the dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, on course for its third straight weekly gain. The gain was small at just 0.2 percent, with the index last up only slightly at 101.110 after recovering from a one-week low of 100.660 earlier.

The index hit a 14-year high of 103.820 at the start of the year, largely on the hopes surrounding Trump's avowed pro-growth policies.

"Ultimately, outside of the U.S. there is reflation happening and data is looking strong, so perhaps it's time to just take some dollar longs off the table," said UBS Wealth Management currency strategist Geoffrey Yu in London.


Here guys, some off-topic, but rather interesting. Fathom consulting view on Bitcoin My personal position - I stand aside from Bitcoin popularity and belong to those who does not treat it as currency. Still, as it is very popular, here is article on bitcoin, where Fathom makes a suggestion on time for profit taking:

Chart of the Week: Bitcoin – time to cash out?
by Fathom Consulting

Interest in virtual currencies, of which Bitcoin remains the most prominent, is unabated. Bitcoin transactions are recorded using blockchain technology, making them cheap, opaque and secure. That makes the crypto-currency attractive to those who would prefer to keep the eyes of government, and especially tax officials off their financial affairs. It is also appealing to certain libertarians who like the fact that its existence owes nothing to any sovereign or central bank. For such people, Bitcoin is an attractive substitute for cash – an increasingly large number can be found in China.
Feb-21.jpg

One of money’s key attributes is that it is a store of value. On that metric, Bitcoin is highly unreliable, with extremely volatile daily movements in price. Some Chinese residents appear unperturbed. Despite wild gyrations in the value of Bitcoin, Chinese investors have dumped renminbi and increased their exposure to the crypto-currency dramatically. This is part of a general trend, in which wealthy Chinese have sought assets that are not denominated in renminbi, resulting in substantial capital outflows.

As of several weeks ago, renminbi transactions accounted for over 95% of total Bitcoin exchanges. Increasing Chinese demand helped deliver Bitcoin investors a handsome reward last year. The currency ended 2016 up 126%. But as Bitcoin rises to near all-time highs, there is reason to question its ascent. China’s policymakers are already acting to lean against the wind, and it is working. The renminbi share of Bitcoin transactions has fallen by more than half in the last two weeks. So far, the price of Bitcoin has nonetheless remained remarkably stable. But on past trends, a sudden turn, up, or more likely, down, should surprise no one.

COT Report
(Reuters) - Speculators increased bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for the first time in seven weeks, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday and calculations by Reuters.

The value of the dollar's net long position totaled $15.02 billion in the week ended Feb. 21, up from $14.99 billion the previous week. Despite the rise in the dollar's net long positioning, the greenback remains an underperformer so far this year, down about 1.1 percent, after gains of 3.6 percent in full-year 2016.

Analysts said investors may have gotten ahead of themselves, buying the dollar in the aftermath of the election as U.S. president of Donald Trump, who promised tax reform and infrastructure spending to boost the economy. Roughly two months after Trump's election, the market remained in the dark on the new government's fiscal measures and tax plan.

"We think the dollar should be trading higher, but there's no question that investors need more convincing," said Kathy Lien, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York. She also added that investors were just not convinced that a U.S. interest rate hike will happen next month.

Trump is expected to give a major speech next week before a joint session of Congress. Lien said any policy announcement could dictate how dollar/yen moves next week. "The currency pair came under heavy selling pressure in previous days and looks vulnerable to a deeper correction," she added.


Despite all talks, we have to rely on facts only. Just take a look at this picture:
upload_2017-2-25_12-29-49.png


Chart shows stable growth on net short speculative position during last 3 weeks and it's accompanied by growth in open interest. It means that traders take new shorts and this shows supportive sentiment for bearish trend on EUR/USD. That's why on Friday we've said - don't be decieved by recent upside action, this is just a retracement and this action is not supported by real investors' action. Based on CFTC data we come to conlcusion that daily H&S pattern stands under hazard of distruction as investors are taken more shorts. That's being said, sentiment analysis doesn't support any upside trend right now. It means that upside reversal hardly possible anytime soon.

Technical
Monthly


January and February action still stands mostly inside December candle and makes no impact on overall long-term picture.

We know that fundamental background mostly looks bearish for EUR - potentially more hawkish Fed policy, ECB QE prolongation, coming elections in many EU countries, bringing more uncertainty. After GB, separatistic sentiment start to appear in other countries of EU, as Italy, France, Netherlands, Spain that are not satisfied with Brussels domination in governing EU.

Speaking on big picture, On a way down, guys, EUR has passed through all major Fib levels. Last one was at 1.12 area and now we do not have any other below current market. Also price has dropped below 1.27 extension of this big butterfly. Thus, on monthly chart the only logical destination point stands at parity - 1.618 butterfly extension, chanell trend line support and YPS1.

Besides, right now EUR is testing YPP, but unsuccessfully yet.

Concerning bullish perspectives... they look really blur by far. The only issue that we could drag in here is a hint on possible stop grabber in February, if price will close above MACDP, but right now it is below MACDP so it seems that hardly we will get bullish grabber here.

But anyway this is definitely insufficient for real new bullish tendency. Especially if we will take in consideration previous strong drop in 2014, CFTC data. Previously we said that we could get some deeper upside action at best, but right now even this perspective looks phantom.

Also take a look at different behavior near low border of channel. Previously when market has touched it - it shows immediate upside pullback, it was V-shape reversal. Right now behavior is absolutely different, price just hangs on the border and shows no upside action. Any tight consolidation near trendline could become a sign of coming breakout.

Thus, based on monthly chart we could make two major conclusions. First is - real bullish trend could be re-established only if EUR will erase reversal candle and overcome its top above 1.16. Our next target on Monthly chart is parity - 1.618 Butterfly extension, YPS1 and trendline support.

In general guys, we think that steps that already have been announced by ECB and Fed should be enough to push EUR right to parity during "price-in" process, when market will "anticipate" them. But further dynamic will depend on real action from Fed, Trump administration and ECB. How they will fulfill their promises and obligations. Any surprising hawkish measures could push EUR even below parity, while step out from pormises could lead to appearing of reverse H&S pattern on monthly/weekly charts.

In shorter-term perspectives, we will keep watching over grabber, whether market will form it or not. On coming week we mostly will deal with shorter-term time frames.

eur_m_27_02_17.png


Weekly

As weekly as monthly chart mostly are not impacted by last week action.

Since we have here two major patterns - butterfly and inner AB-CD, current upside action mostly reminds reaction on reaching of 1.0 extension AB-CD target. On a way up EUR has reached 1.0830 - 3/8 major resistance, and now we're watching whether price will form AB-CD upside action or retracement will be limited by just single leg up. Honestly speaking, here, even reaching of 5/8 resistance is acceptable. It means that if our daily H&S pattern will work and EUR will reach 1.10-1.11 area - this will not erase yet long-term bearish picture.

Returning back to long-term perspective, on a way down final destination 1.618 point coincides with 1.618 butterfly target. Although we have multiple targets inside 1.0-1.05 area, ther are all minor ones. Recall, that we have daily 1.0230 extension. Also, if you will take a careful look, you could recognize another smaller butterfly inside right wing here. It also has target at 1.02 and 1.013.

But, guys, if EUR will be on a road to parity, all these intermediate targets will be hit very fast one by one.
Also, it is not very probable that market will stuck around 1.27 butterfly and will not go to parity. By two reasons - first is, pshychological pressure, second - when price will hit 1.27, it will be between 1.0 and 1.618 extensions of AB-CD pattern and this position is very unstable, market gravitates to some target... That's why parity probably should be hit.

Finally, butterfly could become part of large reverse H&S pattern. But whether it will be formed or not will depend on fundamental factors, D. Trump ficsal policy, US economy data and Fed reaction. Thus, we have more or less single road to parity, but later, around it we will get a crossroads...If there will be something bearish that wasn't priced in yet - EUR could drop even further. If not - H&S will start to form...
eur_w_27_02_17.png


Daily

So, we will not talk a lot about daily chart, since we've discussed it day by day and you, probably should be familiar with all important issues here.

Trend is bearish, but MPS1 holds downward action right around right shoulder's bottom. This keeps overall H&S pattern valid by far. Friday action matches to our expectations - EUR has dropped right from 1.0613 target on hourly chart and this drop was rather strong. But for bulls this is a poor relief, because on Friday EUR almost has formed reversal candle. It's not quite reversal just because close price stands above previous lows, but still it is below the open price of previous session. This reaction of the market and overall fundamental background confirms our suggestion that upside bounce to 1.0613 area was just retracement and reaction on reaching some intraday targets.
If you've entered short on Friday as we've discussed, now is good time to move stop to breakeven...

Conclusion on daily chart - we do not have legal confirmation of H&S failure yet. Tecnically it is still valid, as market has not passed yet through invalidaiton point. But overall price behavior makes relation to this pattern tricky...Thus, bulls probably still wait for butterfly "buy" pattern completion, since it is able to provide at least some protection to long positions, while bears should wait for breakout of MPS1 area...

eur_d_27_02_17.png



Intraday

As last week, our primary charts are 4-hour and hourly. On 4-hour picture we're watching for downward AB-
CD. Right now we see absolutely normal action - reaching of minor 0.618 target and 5/8 upside reaction on it:
eur_4h_27_02_17.png


On hourly chart trend has turned bearish, and now it's bearish on all time frames. Take a look how long EUR was climbing to the top and how fast it has dropped. Market perfectly has completed our trading plan on Friday. It has turned down precisely at specified point.

On a way down price also has broken inner trend line, that separates H&S consolidation from upside action. EUR will open around WPP, but it seems that on Monday we should get downward continuation:
eur_1h_27_02_17.png


Conclusion:

So as you can see, this research doesn't bring someting revolutionary due simple reason - EUR stands in tight range and we have to work with intraday charts while daily pattern is still forming.

The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
 
Good morning,

(Reuters) - The dollar drifted on Tuesday, with its earlier advance halted by investors taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's closely-watched Congressional address later in the day.

The dollar index was little changed at 101.150 against a basket of key currencies, after posting a modest gain the previous day, when it initially went as low as 100.690.

The U.S. currency rose overnight after Trump sought a "historic" increase in military spending, whetting dollar bulls' appetite before the president's speech to Congress.

"The talk regarding military and infrastructure spending raised expectations towards Trump's speech to the Congress later today, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields," said Shin Kadota, senior forex strategist at Barclays.

The dollar index rallied to a 14-year high soon after Trump won the U.S. elections in November, boosted by hopes that he would introduce large fiscal stimulus and reflationary plans.

But the greenback has sagged lately with the Trump administration yet to hammer out clear specifics, notably on tax reform, and focus has naturally turned to the president's first major address to Congress.

"It remains to be seen how much the dollar can gain from Trump's speech, as specifics regarding tax reforms, which is of key interest to the market, may not be available until March," Kadota at Barclays said.

The currency market could also face turbulence if Trump raises sensitive issues involving U.S. trade partners.

"Obviously if Trump mentions any specific countries, their currencies will be affected. Countries likely to attract his attention are China, Germany, Japan and Mexico, which all have large trade surpluses versus the United States," said Daisuke Karakama, market economist at Mizuho Bank.

"He has mentioned China and Japan quite often as of late, so dollar/yen is likely to be affected the most if he speaks about these countries."

The greenback was little changed at 112.660 yen after rising 0.7 percent overnight, when it had earlier plumbed an 18-day low of 111.920.

The euro was flat at $1.0586, having come off from a one-week high of $1.0631 scaled the previous day.

A slight ebb in concerns towards the French presidential election has helped the common currency, which had sunk to a 1-1/2-month low of $1.0494 last week.

The pound fetched $1.2430 after sliding to a 12-day low of $1.2384 the previous day as talk of another possible Scottish independence vote added to fears about Britain's future as it prepares to leave the European Union.

The Australian dollar edged up 0.1 percent to $0.7682, confined to a tight $0.7688-0.7668 range.


So, EUR yesterday has shown a bit different action, compares to what we've discussed in weekly research. Downward continuation has not started yet, but we do not see any real upside breakout yet as well. In fact, on daily chart price action takes the shape of flag pattern, that potentially is continuaiton one.

Today Trump will talk to Congress that potentially could rise volatility. As a result, another pattern that we could watch here is bearish grabber that could be formed today:
eur_d_28_02_17.png


So, today we mostly will be focused on this flag consolidation. As we said week ago and even 2 weeks - current upward action shows no signs of thrust, action mostly looks choppy and this is not typical for right shoulder as well as for market that stands in upside trend. This makes us think that this is not upside trend but retracement. Take a look that yesterday EUR has failed to break WPR1.
That's why we mostly expect breakout down of this flag pattern and failure of daily H&S pattern. Still, we do not call to run ahead the train and take position only when real facts will be in place. For bears - this is downward breakout of MPS1 area.
eur_1h_28_02_17.png
 
Good morning,

(Reuters) - The dollar spurted higher in Asian trade on Wednesday as Federal Reserve policy-setters fanned expectations of a rate hike this month, overshadowing a key speech by U.S. President Donald Trump that offered little details on his stimulus.

The greenback traded at 113.16 yen, up 0.35 percent from late U.S. levels, while the euro dropped 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.0565.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major peers was last up 0.1 percent at 101.45.

In a long-awaited speech to the Congress, Trump opened the door to a broad overhaul of the U.S. immigration system and vowed to pursue massive tax relief for the middle class but stopped short of giving any details.

"There was no mention of the size and the schedule of his tax cuts and spending. He just repeated what he had said," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.

"So the dollar would have been sold on disappointment but in reality a barrage of comments from the Fed this morning overwhelmed that," he added.

Earlier, the U.S currency had risen after a handful of Federal Reserve policymakers boosted expectations for a March interest rate increase.

New York Fed President William Dudley, among the most influential U.S. central bankers, said that the case for tightening monetary policy "has become a lot more compelling".

John Williams, President of the San Francisco Fed, said that a rate increase was very much on the table for serious consideration at the March meeting given full employment and accelerating inflation.

Money market futures were now pricing in about a 70 percent chance of a rate hike in March, compared to about a 30 percent or less at the start of the week.

U.S. economic data released on Tuesday showed a moderate growth path, as the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter, in line with last month's estimate.

The Australian dollar showed muted response to a private survey showing China's factory activity expanding at a faster pace than expected in February.

The Aussie traded at $0.7666, up 0.2 percent on the day.


Some analysts said Trump's speech, while lacking details on economic policies, did seem positive after a turbulent month in office.

"Today was a 'good Trump', compared to the aggressive 'bad Trump' shown on Twitter," said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

"He did not attack the media and addressed education. Even his tie was navy, not a furious red."


So, historical Trump speech has happened, but actually it has made minor impact on financial markets as he mostly talked on domestic problems and brought no details on his tax reform.
Major impact as come from Fed representatives hints on rate hike in March (see comments above). As a result we've got the pattern that we've discussed yesterday - daily bearish grabber, and today we could get another one. Although this pattern is important but it just confirms what we've said earlier, when we've announced our doubts on reliability of daily H&S pattern. Two weeks ago we already had some concerns on it's perspectives and grabber has become final part of our puzzle.
eur_d_01_03_17.png


As a result, right now we do not recomment to take any long positions. The only chance that bulls still have - is coming NFP data. If it will be worse than expected, and wage inflation will show slow pace - this could lead to upside reversal. Because right now major driving factor of USD is March rate hike. It was not priced in yet totally and, in fact, current drop on EUR is a process of pricing-in of this new input. If March rate hike will be under question due poor NFP data - market will cancel this pricing-in process and EUR could turn up. In this case grabber probably will be erased...
But right now - overall picture looks bearish. On 4-hour chart we see that our flag pattern has been broken down, as we've suggested. Here we're watching for AB-CD pattern that should lead price right to previous daily lows:
eur_4h_01_03_17.png


Hourly chart could be useful if you indend to trade daily grabber pattern. In this case it makes sense to use one of Fib levels for entry. Invalidation point will be grabbers' top. Also pay attention that EUR was not able to break through WPR1. It means that bear trend here is still intact and it confirms our suggestion that 1.0613 action was a retracement. Now EUR also breaks WPP down...
eur_1h_01_03_17.png

Also we have some intraday minor targets that butterfly generates. They have no real importancy, but market could react on them within a trading session.

That's being said - no longs, at least until Friday's NFP data. For shorts daily grabber setup could be used....
 
Greetings everybody,

(Reuters) - The dollar hovered near a seven-week high on Thursday on increasing signs given by Federal Reserve officials that the U.S. central bank is seriously considering raising interest rates this month.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said late on Wednesday an improving global economy and a solid U.S. recovery mean it will be "appropriate soon" for the Fed to raise rates.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was slightly higher at 101.91. The index climbed to 101.97 on Wednesday, its highest since Jan. 11.

On Tuesday, two influential Fed policymakers, William Dudley and John Williams, encouraged dollar bulls with comments that suggested rate-setters are worried about waiting too long in the face of pending economic stimulus from Washington.

"The Fed is likely to raise interest rates this month unless the U.S. jobs data due next week is bad," said Yukio Ishizuki, FX strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo.

Futures traders are now pricing in a 66 percent chance of a Fed hike in March, up from 35 percent on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

U.S. President Donald Trump's long-awaited speech on Tuesday failed to give specific details on his economic plans, but outlined broad tax cuts and a $1 trillion public-private initiative to rebuild degraded roads and bridges.

"Investors liked that Trump was behaving well during his speech although it lacked specifics in policies," said Daiwa's Ishizuki.

Against its Japanese counterpart, the dollar was up 0.3 percent at 114.04 yen. The greenback reached a two-week high of 114.16 yen earlier in the day.

A widening of U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials helped the dollar, as U.S. Treasury yields jumped on an increased prospect for a March rate hike.

The U.S. two-year yield hovered near a more than seven-year high of 1.308 percent touched on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was also close to a two-week high, last standing at 2.461 percent.

However, some analysts warned that the dollar could weaken despite the widening interest rate differentials should stocks retreat.

"If the Fed goes ahead with a faster pace of rate hikes and shrinks its balance sheet, it will weigh on stock prices," said Minori Uchida, chief FX analyst at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ.

"Lower share prices and wider yield differentials would result in a weaker dollar, just like in May 2013 when Fed's Bernanke signaled tapering," said Uchida.

Investors are closely watching speeches from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Friday for further policy clues.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls next Friday is another crucial factor to decide on the possibility of a March rate hike.

Sterling and the Canadian dollar weakened against the greenback to their lowest levels since Jan. 20.

Canada's central bank held rates steady on Wednesday, striking a cautious tone on the "significant uncertainties" facing the economy.

The greenback hovered near a six-week high versus the loonie, last standing at 1.3356 Canadian dollar.

Sterling sank to a six-week low of $1.2261 as disappointing economic data on Wednesday added to political nerves that have begun to weigh on the currency again after last year's Brexit vote.

The euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.0529. The common currency dipped to a one-week low of $1.0514 against the dollar on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar sagged on weaker-than-expected trade data, dipping 0.3 percent to $0.7654.

Australia's trade surplus shrank unexpectedly in January, though the quarterly current account might still edge into the black for the first time since the mid-1970s.


So, bears will get more time to press on EUR, as it seems that NFP will be only next week. So EUR starts pricing-in process of rate hike in March. Yesterday we've got another bearish grabber and now treat chances on 1.05 breakout as very high. Actually we do not have any doubts right now on downward continuation, but just to provide you broader view - on daily/4-hour chart EUR could form upside butterfly and push price to 1.0750 area if something will go bad with rate hike in March. Still, this possible butterfly will not break overall downward tendency on EUR, but will add more noise and make market shape line more sophisticated:
eur_d_02_03_17.png


On 4-hour chart EUR stands in downward channel and next logical destination point is 1.0450 area. This will be channel support, AB-CD target and 1.27 extension (may be market will form butterfly there):
eur_4h_02_03_17.png


Hourly chart shows that market stands around major 5/8 daily Fib support again. Overall background is bearsh - trend, price below WPP and MPP etc. Thus, we mostly expect to see downward continuation to 1.0450 today and think that it is not time for any long positions.
eur_1h_02_03_17.png

Still, if something "curious" will start to appear here - recall what we've said on upside butterfly in beginning of this post. EUR will get chance to form it, if price will hold above 1.05 lows...
 
Good morning,

(Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Friday but remained on track for a solid weekly gain on growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its mid-March meeting, which led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.2 percent at 102.020 but not far from the previous session's high of 102.260, its loftiest peak since Jan. 11. For the week, it was up 0.9 percent.

Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.3 percent on the day to 114.11 after scaling a peak of 114.595 in the previous session, its highest since Feb. 15. The dollar was up nearly 2 percent for the week.

"There were some investors who weren't positioned for the possibility of a rate increase this month, and the dollar is benefiting as they adjust their expectations," said Mitsuo Imaizumi, the Tokyo-based chief foreign-exchange strategist for Daiwa Securities.

Comments this week from New York Fed President William Dudley as well as San Francisco Fed President John Williams buoyed dollar bulls, and prompted more investors to increase their bets on a rate increase as early as this month.

Fed funds futures on Thursday implied traders saw a 79.7 percent probability of a Fed rate hike at its March 14-15 policy meeting, up from 66.4 percent on Wednesday, according to data from CME Group's FedWatch program.

That helped push up yields on U.S. two-year notes, which are considered most vulnerable to Fed rate hikes, to their highest since August 2009.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen as well as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer are slated to speak later on Friday, and could reinforce the hawkish message.

"We also changed our own expectations for a rate increase to March, from June," said Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at IHS Markit in Tokyo.

"But still, we don't know how U.S policy will continue, and there are also political risks, which could possibly change the trend back to a stronger yen," she said.

The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.0520, after dipping as low as $1.0495 overnight, within a tick of its lowest level since Jan. 11. It was down 0.4 percent for the week.

The Australian dollar licked its wounds, down 0.2 percent on the day at $0.7559. It skidded as low as $0.7543, the weakest since Jan. 31, as it came under pressure from slumping oil prices and the broadly stronger U.S. currency.

The Aussie was down 1.4 percent for the week, set for its worst weekly performance since mid-December.

Sterling was steady on the day at $1.2267 after plumbing a low of $1.2243 on Thursday, its nadir since Jan. 17.


So, as a price-in process of March rate hiking stands under way - EUR drifts lower. Today we do not see a lot of chances for trading and it seems that major issue to watch for - wether EUR will make an attempt to break 1.05 lows, as it stands very close to them:
eur_d_03_03_17.png


On 4-hour chart, our next target is 1.0450, but major pattern that we will be watch for today is bearish grabber. If it will be formed - chances on soon breakout will increase. Thus, if you're scalp trader and watching for short position - you could also monitor appearing of the grabber here:
eur_4h_03_03_17.png


On hourly chart EUR has completed all our short-term targets - extensions of large butterfly and small one have been hit. Right now price stands in reasonable upside bounce that could reach 1.0540 K-resistance.
eur_1h_03_03_17.png


So, as you can see not much scenarios for trading. Currently it is difficult to find the reason to go long. Short position is posible if we will get 4-hour chart grabber.
 
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