FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 05-09, 2018

Guys, the advance has now slowed down, prices are still below the mid-line of our base channel suggesting our super-dynamic 1-2-1-2 is not supported by the market and we have to start taking into consideration other patterns that may be under development based on what we already see - one of them is what Venelin just has pointed out.

The subdivisions of the advance are open to different views. The advance from 1.2268 has overlapping waves which is an early warning of a potential reversal. One possible scenario is another pullback may be under development off the 1.2365 peak back to the 1.2285 - 1.2255 area before the advance resumes. In this case my circle II is still unfolding and will shift to the right bottoming around 50-62% retracement.

Note that an impulsive breach of 1.2268 may indicate further weakness and put bullish view under pressure. Keep in mind that bullish scenarios are still valid as long as 1.2154 holds as support.

For immediate bullish follow through we really need to see the Euro continue higher against 1.2268 in order to keep the 1-2-1-2 forecast in good standing. Trading back inside the 1-2 base channel and above its mid-line will put the bullish outlook on solid footing.


View attachment 36580
Looks like 1-2/1-2 scenario won
 
For immediate bullish follow through we really need to see the Euro continue higher against 1.2268 in order to keep the 1-2-1-2 forecast in good standing. Trading back inside the 1-2 base channel and above its mid-line will put the bullish outlook on solid footing.
Yeah! Done! :D
 
...Trading back inside the 1-2 base channel and above its mid-line will put the bullish outlook on solid footing.

We're back on the right track now. ;)

Guys, South Korean Won offers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity ahead - though I can't capitalize on this:

krwusd_180306_m.gif
 
Guys, South Korean Won offers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity ahead
Hi Stag, please explain ;)
Although I do not trade exotic, but it is interesting what do you see here... And others, I think as well.
Just by looking at the chart, I would suggest upside jump. (also taking in consideration NK + SK negotiations right now)
 
Hi Stag, please explain ;)

I think it is not so hot yet but such a huge triangle still unfolding but near to its end makes me thinking. May take a year or so until really takes off.

As I wrote earlier, a triangle reflects a balance of forces and always occurs in a position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree. And this advance is going to be a huge one.
 
Good morning,

So, markets calm down a bit after tumoil around US tariffs. Attention is gradually switching to coming ECB meeting tomorrow and NFP release. Today is also Bank of Canada meeting.

Our bullish context stands intact. Now market stands at minor resistance of WPR1, but no Overbought yet. In fact, EUR already has broken all major Fib resistance levels.
eur_d_07_03_18.png


On 4-hour chart our COP and Agreement resistance has been reached, but no response has followed yet. Actually I'm not sure that it will follow at all, as market could proceed to OP target directly.
eur_4h_07_03_18.png


Still, if retracement will start (our butterfly has been completed as well here), I think we could keep an eye on 1.2350-1.2360 K-support area. Also this is natural support and neckline of our reverse H&S pattern. So this should be good area to scale-in or take long position:
eur_1h_07_03_18.png
 
...Trading back inside the 1-2 base channel and above its mid-line will put the bullish outlook on solid footing...

The advance is still struggling to break above or mid-line and this is a sign of weakness. So our bullish view is not so solid but is still OK.

We’re tentatively counting wave (iii) of circle iii up as complete. Wave (iv) should be fairly small, preferably stopping around 1.2388 but in any case, prices need to hold above 1.2366 if a further advance is playing out. Another fresh new high should be seen to complete wave (v) up topping around 1.248-1.249, the level wave (v) will have traveled the same distance as wave (i).

I'm also not discounting the possibility it is developing as an ABC from 1.2154 up to 1.2490 area as suggested by Venelin (and remember to my triangle scenario). If prices got below 1.2365 in any decline, I would dismiss my immediate bullish view in favor of further decline.

Any price action churning correctively above 1.2366 keep the odds in favor of a move higher.

EU_180307_m15.gif
 
The advance is still struggling to break above or mid-line and this is a sign of weakness.
Stag, actually I also have some concern, mostly due situation on GBP... Cable stands in "Sell" as on weekly as on daily chart. And recent daily action doesn't exclude yet chances on action to 1.3560 area. Taking in consideraiton correlation between EUR and GBP, on EUR could be deep retracement, or GBP setup should be erased... I'm keeping small short with far stop here, let's see...
gbp_d_07_03_18.png
 
Stag, actually I also have some concern, mostly due situation on GBP... Cable stands in "Sell" as on weekly as on daily chart. And recent daily action doesn't exclude yet chances on action to 1.3560 area. Taking in consideraiton correlation between EUR and GBP, on EUR could be deep retracement, or GBP setup should be erased... I'm keeping small short with far stop here, let's see...
I have the same consern. A Daily close above 1.40( weekly pivot resistance) probably will erase the bearish cable scenario-i.e meeting 1.3560 XOP area. I will be watchin Todays close on Dollar Index for clues. It could be a Stop Grabber.
 
Back
Top