FOREX PRO WEEKLY, March 05-09, 2018

[Stag]

Stag, actually I also have some concern, mostly due situation on GBP... Cable stands in "Sell" as on weekly as on daily chart. And recent daily action doesn't exclude yet chances on action to 1.3560 area. Taking in consideraiton correlation between EUR and GBP, on EUR could be deep retracement, or GBP setup should be erased...

Yeah, could happen. The british pound is a tricky one, no clean patterns there on the lower timeframes. The decline from its January highs has a corrective nature and seems to be still unfolding. It would take more time for a thorough analysis / solid opinion from me - worth drawing a corrective price channel and you know when it breaks its upper boundary...

But worth taking a closer look at the dollar index because of the Euro’s heavy weighting (57% of the index). Given a three wave decline completed by the dollar and slightly dippping below the extrreme of its previous circle B at 89.52, a turn above 90.00 (but topping far below 91.00) would bolster this bearish triangle scenario and would be in sync with the deeper pullback idea in the Euro.

Currently, I still consider this triangle as an option and would only delay the resumption of the advance (decline in the dollar index) we talked about earlier.

 

[Joshnix]

I show a channel on GBP/USD on the 4 hr. However I also have a small short with a stop above the weekly MACDP. This is a typical trade for me on the weekly timeframe. Jump in on a retrace after crossing the MACDP. Fewer trades but more pips.

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning everybody,

While yesterday we've discussed situation on EUR with Stag, Venelin and others, so we've taken a look at DXY and occasionally I've taken a look at GBP. The things that I saw there, makes me worry about EUR perspectives. At least it really could happen that retracement down will be deeper that we thought initially. That's why, today I think it makes sense to share with you on GBP setup. Yes, today is ECB, tomorrow is NFP and situation could change, but right now it looks not as bullish as we thought initially.

In fact weekly GBP stands in "Sell" and pulling down from strong monthly resistance, weekly XOP and OB area. Retracement takes the shape of clear AB-CD pattern that is not completed yet. Weekly strong support area stands lower. Daily also stands in "Sell", upside action was stopped by strong resistance and MPP. Overall upside action looks like retracement, as we do not have any impulse up and no signs of thrusting action. Picture shows that most probable - we see reaction on COP target.

Following this logic, next leg should be down to OP and Agreement around 1.3530 area, which should completed weekly retracement. Today is will be important to watch for bearish grabber on daily chart, as it could give more confidence with our suggestion:

On 4-hour chart you can see K-resistance that I've mentioned above:

But this is not all yet. On upside action GBP has completed XOP target and hourly chart has turned to "sell" as well. So, if today market will close below 1.3875 area - we will get daily grabber

As GBP and EUR have solid correlation, be prepared that EUR will show deeper retracement, if we will be right on this.

 

[Stag]

...Any price action churning correctively above 1.2366 keep the odds in favor of a move higher...

The minimum requirements for a wave (iv) have been met and I use 1.2385 as working support for higher as I wait to see if a fourth-wave within an impulse advance off the 1.2269 low ended yesterday. We need to see the Euro trading decisively above 1.2415 / 1.2445 and toward the 1.2475 target area where a five wave sequence will be complete.

Guys, it is just ~70 pips and the alternate ABC scenario we discussed yesterday still won't be ruled out from there.

 

[FreddyFX]

Oefff Sive, and I started scaling in long positions, luckily small yet.
Guess we will see in a few hours where this goes with the Euro.

 

[Stag]

Guys, don't forget our best medicine in the world: women!

Wishing Lolly and every WOMEN a happy Women’s Day!

 

[Stag]

...We need to see the Euro trading decisively above 1.2415 / 1.2445 and toward the 1.2475 target area where a five wave sequence will be complete...

With no evidence of a completed advance, my minimum upside expectation is 1.246x against today's low followed by a decline back to 1.2400 or below.

 

[FreddyFX]

seems to be correct, watching carefully

having 1.23245 as the lowest point of the day so far, with already a daily average of 122 pips, expecting that to be it

 

[Lolly Tripathy]

Thank you so much stag.
You mention my name in this post
Dats a really a gift for me
Thanks once again

Guys, don't forget our best medicine in the world: women!

Wishing Lolly and every WOMEN a happy Women’s Day!

Than

 

[Sive Morten]

Morning, guys,

So, situation on EUR and other markets has changed. Right now our weekly/daily bullish setup is still valid and may be it will survive (although I'm not sure), but right now is definitely not the moment to go long on EUR. It seems that we will get at least 2-leg retracement down, at max - drop below recent lows and erasing of daily bullish setup.

Recent drop on ECB dovish comments was rather sharp, EUR has dropped out from MPR1 and Fib level. Now price stands at 50% support and MPP. Daily EUR still stands in "Buy" mode, but taking in consideration the strength of recent plunge, despite good support area, I wouldn't go long right now:

On 4-hour chart we also have signs of weakness. 1.24 area was broken, market still wasn't able to complete OP target and dropped back below neckline. It means just one thing - H&S failure. So, downside action should continue.

Of course, mostly it will depend on NFP, that we can't foresee, but technically, I expect minor upside bounce within few hours and then another leg down...
NFP is expected around 200K - this is for those, who trade data releases. As ADP report was positive, chances that NFP will be also good are not bad...

Personally I will not trade EUR down (I have GBP position, as I've said 2 days ago), and I do not call you to do it, although this is not forbidden, of course. As we've talked a lot about upside action within few weeks, I just want to warn you - it seems that it is not good moment yet to buy, despite good retracement happened.