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FOREX PRO WEEKLY, November 20 - 24, 2017

Discussion in 'Sive Morten- Currencies and Gold Video Analysis' started by Sive Morten, Nov 19, 2017.

  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Fundamentals

    (Reuters) - The dollar fell against a basket of other major currencies on Friday, as Treasury yields slipped and investors remained skeptical of U.S. Republicans’ efforts to pass tax cuts after a barren first year for the Trump administration in Congress.

    The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rival currencies, was down 0.31 percent to 93.645. For the week, the index was down 0.8 percent.

    The euro was up 0.23 percent to $1.1796. The greenback was down 0.82 percent against the Japanese yen.

    “The dollar is weaker across the board, especially against the yen, but also against most of the emerging market currencies,” said Win Thin, head of emerging markets currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

    “I think part of it is just lower rates,” he said.

    U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Friday, in line with falls on Wall Street as investors weighed the fate of the Republicans’ tax cut plan.

    Congressional Republicans took important steps on Thursday toward the biggest U.S. tax code overhaul since the 1980s, with the House of Representatives approving a broad package of tax cuts and a Senate panel advancing its own version of the legislation sought by senior lawmakers and President Donald Trump.

    The House vote shifted the tax debate to the Senate, where a tax-writing panel finished debating and approved a bill late on Thursday. That measure has already encountered resistance from some within the Republican ranks.

    Full Senate action is expected after next week’s Thanksgiving holiday.

    “The market is coming to realize that it’s going to be a little bit more difficult than thought,” said Thin.

    The dollar was also pressured by a report on Thursday that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigators probing possible Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election had subpoenaed Trump’s election campaign for documents.

    “This is unquestioningly going to weigh on the administration’s ability to pass tax reform and enact any other fiscal reform measures that would support the economy,” said Karl Schamotta, director of global product and market strategy at Cambridge Global Payments in Toronto.


    The dollar firmed briefly after data showed U.S. homebuilding jumped to a one-year high in October, but failed to hold gains.

    The Australian and New Zealand dollars both headed for sizable weekly falls against the greenback as their yield buffers over the U.S. dollar shrank to the smallest in over 17 years, undermining their appeal as carry trades.

    The Australian dollar was down 0.29 percent against the greenback, and the kiwi was 0.54 percent lower against its U.S. counterpart.


    News in Charts: Spotting a UK recession
    by Fathom Consulting

    We at Fathom have spent the past few weeks visiting our clients, and presenting our thoughts on the outlook for the global economy and its financial markets. As regular readers will be aware, our UK view is somewhat gloomy. While most major economies are enjoying a cyclical upswing, the UK, we explain, is on the verge of what is likely to be a relatively mild recession, driven by falling household expenditure. A number of our clients push back at this point. “But no one else expects a UK recession”, they say. That is broadly true. Our central view is that we will get two quarterly declines in output next year, giving a figure for growth across the calendar year as a whole of 0.3%. That is a long way below the median forecast, of 1.3%, among those economists who submit figures to the Reuters Poll. We may be more bearish than the consensus, but of course that does not mean that we are wrong. Put simply, economists as a group are not very good at spotting recessions, even when one is staring them in the face.

    Let us first put our case. Taking account of the UK’s dire productivity growth since the financial crisis, our judgment is that the UK’s trend rate of growth is somewhere in the range 0.5%-1.0%. The economy has grown much more rapidly than that during the past four years or so, and that is why unemployment has fallen so sharply. But this cannot continue. A slowdown of some magnitude had become inevitable even before last year’s EU referendum.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    As well leading to an increase in uncertainty, which is perhaps only coming to the fore now that the negotiations are entering a crucial phase, the UK’s vote to leave the EU has been associated with a substantial fall in sterling, putting a squeeze on real wages. To date, households have responded by dipping into their savings, or by borrowing more. But with the saving ratio close to record lows, and with banks under pressure to cut back on unsecured credit, this is unlikely to continue. Retail sales data are noisy from one month to the next, but a clear slowdown in the pace of expenditure growth since the referendum is evident, with data published this week showing that the volume of sales contracted in the twelve months to October for the first time since 2013. Our central forecast is for a mild technical recession in the UK next year, with output contracting in Q1 and Q2 as households retrench, and neither net trade nor investment provide a sufficient offset.

    [​IMG]
    So much for the Fathom view. No-one else seems that bothered by the prospect of recession, so we can breathe easy, surely? Well, let us stop for a moment, and consider how effective economists have been at spotting recessions in the past. We have plentiful data on both public- and private-sector growth forecasts in the run-up to, and immediate aftermath of, only one previous UK recession — and that is the most recent one. This is undoubtedly what statisticians like to call a ‘small sample’. Nevertheless, the recession of 2008/09 saw the sharpest contraction of UK economic output since the Second World War. People ought to have seen it coming, or so one might think. But remarkably, they did not.

    Let us start with the facts, as they stand at present. UK economic output began to fall in 2008 Q2. It fell again in 2008 Q3 and Q4. It then continued to fall in 2009 Q1 and Q2, marking five consecutive quarters of contraction. The total reduction in output, from peak to trough, was 6.1%.

    On the eve of the crisis, during the quarter in which output peaked, the Bank of England published the February 2008 Inflation Report. What did it show? Well, a recession in the UK was seen as a distant prospect. In fact, it did not get a mention. Literally. The word recession did not appear anywhere in the 56-page document. The MPC publishes its central projections as four-quarter percentage changes. On that basis, its forecast for growth over the four quarters to 2009 Q1 was +1.7%. The actual outturn was -5.9%.

    [​IMG]
    In addition to point forecasts, the whole distribution of possible outcomes was also made available, in the form of a fan chart. Back in February 2008, it saw just a 5% chance that output would contract over the following four quarters. Looking at the whole period since the 1950s, output has contracted over a period of four quarters around 10% of the time. In other words one could say that, on the eve of the 2008/09 recession, the Bank of England saw the chances of a UK recession as ‘less than normal’.

    As our table shows, as time passed, the MPC’s central projections for growth in the four quarters to 2009 Q1 were revised down, and the prospects of an outright contraction began to rise. But the central projection did not drop below zero, and the likelihood of an outright contraction did not move above 50%, until November 2008 — six months after output began to fall. And the word ‘recession’ made its first appearance in that same issue of the Inflation Report.

    The Bank of England produces a rich set of forecasts for the UK economy, which perhaps makes it an easy target when things go wrong. It is certainly fair to say that other official forecasters did no better. Both the IMF and the OECD provide annual point forecasts for UK growth, four times a year in the case of the IMF and twice a year in the case of the OECD. As with the MPC, these organisations were not predicting an outright contraction until 2008 Q4, six months after UK output began to fall.

    So much for the official bodies, how about private-sector economists? The picture here is much the same. The consensus among private-sector economists for growth in calendar year 2009 did not turn negative until the final quarter of 2008, six months after the economy began to contract. It is worth noting, however, that at least one forecaster appearing in the Reuters Poll was predicting a contraction in August. And by early September, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the median respondent to the Reuters Poll saw a 55% chance that the UK would enter a technical recession within the next twelve months. Not bad, and a little ahead of the Bank of England, but that was still almost two quarters in to the downturn.
    [​IMG]

    What is the upshot of all this? We have recently pushed back the point at which we expect UK output to contract. We now expect to see a relatively mild technical recession early next year. We would be the first to admit that even our latest point forecasts for UK growth will almost certainly be proved wrong, not least because mild technical recessions are quite rare. As we said last year, when growth drops below a certain threshold, and unemployment begins to rise, output can fall quite sharply. Another way of putting this is that the empirical distribution of GDP growth rates in the UK, and elsewhere, is far from normal, and has a pronounced negative skew, as our final chart shows. So, the outcome may be worse than we are expecting. Or it may be better — a recession may be avoided entirely. However, our message is this: do not take comfort from the fact that neither official nor private-sector forecasters are predicting a recession. They almost never do.

    COT Report

    Recent CFTC data indicates some struggle process net long position fluctuates around extreme levels. Last week we see minor drop of net long position accompanied by growth in open interest. It means that new shorts were opened recently.
    At the same time, open interest has increased more than drop value in net long position. This points also on new longs as well. So, it seems that major breakout has not happened yet.
    At the same time, EUR stands at extreme values of net long position. Usually it suggests that upside potential is limited. As we expect reversal pattern on weekly chart, extreme values of CFTC data increases chances on its appearing:

    upload_2017-11-19_12-59-39.

    Technical
    Monthly


    So, last time, guys, we correctly have estimated some "mismatches" between price behavior and patterns that have been made. I mostly speak about daily H&S pattern.

    As price indeed has shown solid upside appreciation last week, now we need develop next steps of our trading plan. The one thing that we know right now - EUR is bullish, but at the same time its upside action is limited, as it is suggested by CFTC data. This leads us to conclusion that upside action will continue, but not too far.

    On monthly chart we do not have big changes by far. As EUR has failed to break 1.15 support - price stuck around upper border of consolidation. Thus, our analysis of long-term charts mostly stands the same.

    Monthly rectangle still stands as a core of analysis here among with all-time support/resistance zone that cuts EUR/USD history by 1.20 edge and upside reversal swing.Thus, here we should suggest deep retracement down. This, in turn will push price back inside rectangle, which will be not good sign for bulls.

    In this case rectangle space will be open for price fluctuation and now it is impossible to say whether it will be deep retracement or real return back to lows.

    Recent action, accompanied by fundamental background and parallel analysis of key financial markets mostly shows bearish picture and suggests downside action that could take large part of 2018 action.

    Now market still feels support of 1.16 area, but as it will dive deeper - downside action could accelerate. So, we're still waiting when this will happen.

    In general while market stands below 1.40 top - any fluctuation inside recent downside swing will be treated as retracement...
    eur_m_20_11_17.

    Weekly

    As DiNapoli "Ooops!" pattern has worked pretty nice last week, and normal H&S price behavior has been broken - it makes us to take careful look DRPO "Sell" again. Although we never drop it out from our view, but, now it's a time when it comes on first stage and becomes our primary pattern to watch. DRPO "Sell" here perfectly corresponds to sentiment analysis.

    So, here we have perfect thrust up. On retracement down there were too many bars below 3x3 DMA and it can't be B&B "Buy". Price has not reached major 3/8 Fib support of the thrust. Now it has turned to upside action. All these signs point on growing probability of DRPO "Sell" appearing.

    To get DRPO here EUR has to form approximately equal tops. We also need to see thrusting action on daily and intraday charts, as many traders should think that we stand in continuation of bull trend and recent drop to 1.16 was just minor retracement.

    If our suggestion is correct, EUR should return back to 1.21-1.22 area before major reversal will happen. By taking a look at timing of this process, it seems that this should happen accurately to December FOMC meeting....
    eur_w_20_11_17.

    Daily

    As market has spent most part of the week in consolidation, daily chart brings nothing new. As it was primary time frame for last weekend, now its weekly chart's turn.

    Here we have mostly the same issues that we've discussed in video updates through the week. Upside action has started. We have signs of upside thrust and this is good sign. Market pace was stopped by OB level and 50% area. In fact, we have DiNapoli "Stretch" pattern. Now EUR is forming flag consolidation. Also it has reached MPR1 area.

    Now there are two scenarios are possible for coming week. First is - deeper retracement down before upside continuation, second - immediate upward reversal.

    Deeper retracement is a normal response to reaching of daily OB and forming of upside reversal swing, but EUR has moved too slow in this direction on Friday. This moment tells that upside continuation right in the beginning of the week is possible either.
    eur_d_20_11_17.

    4-hour

    This picture shows scenario that we already have discussed, but with more details. Thus, our AB=CD downside retracement could lead to appearing of two patterns of different scales. First one is "222" Buy around K-support area and Agreement. This is the one that should give us chance to go long.

    While second pattern is reverse H&S - it will point upside target. First one stands around 1.2015, as upside AB-CD.

    But, now I suspect that market could show some upside continuation first, since price shows irrational action again, compares to what should happen after strong bearish engulfing pattern has been formed:
    eur_4h_20_11_17.

    Hourly

    Here is second scenario that could also precede appearing of H&S, or even cancel it, if EUR will drive higher.

    So, as we've suggested after 5/8 retracement EUR has turned down again. Action after that should accelerate as we should have got downside extension based on 4-hour bearish engulfing and CD leg (that is shown on 4-hour chart).

    But, instead of that downside action was too choppy and slow. It makes me think that this is more retracement after upside leg to 1.1820, rather than downside continuation. This, in turn, means that EUR has more chances to show upside action on Monday.

    Finally, what upside action should follow - price could show either AB-CD up, and form "222" Sell", or it could be greater action and butterfly "Sell", as it shown on the chart. My suggestion that butterfly has more chances. First is because, AB-CD retracement happens rare after engulfing, and destruction of engulfing looks more probable. Second - butterfly target agrees with WPR1 and 1.19 4-hour top - potential neckline of H&S on 4-hour chart.
    eur_1h_20_11_17.

    So, what positions could be taken here? First is, based on butterfly, of course with invalidation point at 1.1750 lows. Bears should wait when either butterfly will be cancelled or hit upside target. First sign of possible failure will come if EUR will drop below 1.1770 again. But, it will be not very attractive position, because downside target stands just 40 pips lower and it will be difficult to jump in.

    Conclusion:

    Right now we again see some irrational action, but this time on intraday charts. It seems that EUR will show action to 1.19 before major retracement will start. So, bears should wait a bit more while hourly butterfly will be completed.


    The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.
     
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  2. Butcherfx

    Butcherfx Private

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    USD/YEN

    Monthly

    Stop grabber has played out on the monthly.

    USDJPYMonthly.

    Weekly

    Market taking some stops and pulling back. Trend is up.

    USDJPYWeekly.

    Daily

    Looking at our daily; Market testing XOP+F3 agreement zone. Daily sell can be faded against weekly and monthly buy around these. Take note of stops beneath 111.64.

    USDJPYDaily.




     
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  3. Butcherfx

    Butcherfx Private

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    Corrected Data for daily

    USDJPYDaily.
     
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  4. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Rodge,
    What software do you use? Is MACDP built in?
     
  5. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    It seems, guys that Bundestag has resolve all our concerns about butterfly in a blink of an eye :cool:

    Now we have only one scenario - "222" Buy on 4-hour chart. Let's watch for bullish reversal patterns...
     
  6. ivans990

    ivans990 Private

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    How it looks option that we get reverse H&S on Daily around 5/8 retracement? That would be 1.618 extension in CD.
     
  7. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Hi Ivan,
    yes, we've talked about reverse H&S in weekly research... It could be 1.618, but initially it is better to focus on 1.0 ;)
     
  8. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Good morning,

    (Reuters) - The dollar gave back some of its gains in Asian trading on Tuesday but stuck close to a one-week high against a basket of currencies as a German political deadlock continued to pressure the euro.

    The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rival currencies, dipped 0.1 percent to 94.029, but was still within sight of its overnight peak of 94.104, its highest since Nov. 14.

    The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.1739, nursing losses after dropping to $1.1722 in the previous session after German coalition government talks collapsed.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose conservative bloc lost seats in September’s election, said she would inform the German president that she could not form a coalition, after the pro-business Free Democrats withdrew from negotiations.

    Merkel said she would prefer a new election to ruling with a minority, but Germany’s president told the parties they owed it to voters to try to form a government.

    “It was primarily a euro weakness story, based on the failure to form a coalition government in Germany,” said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at the private client group of U.S. Bank in Helena, Montana.

    “Stepping back from the daily activities, the big mountain that we’re still looking to traverse is still tax reform -- what form, and on what timeline,” Northey said.

    U.S. Republicans are not expected to push major tax cuts through Congress this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, who were also sceptical that tax reform would provide a significant boost to the economy.

    Trading was expected to be relatively thin this week ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, which is also a national holiday in Japan.

    The calendar is relatively sparse ahead of the holiday, with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen scheduled to give a speech later on Tuesday. Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting will be released on Wednesday.

    Against the yen, the dollar was slightly lower on the day at 112.59 , holding above its overnight low of 111.89 yen, which was its lowest since mid-October.

    The euro was steady on the day against the yen at 132.15 yen, after skidding as low as 131.16 on Monday, its lowest since Sept. 15.

    “Ahead of this week’s holidays, it would not have been unusual for the dollar to have fallen on position adjustments as investors pared their dollar-long positions, in case there was some dollar-negative news while they were away,” said Kumiko Ishikawa, FX analyst at Sony Financial Holdings in Tokyo.

    “But due largely to the euro’s moves, the dollar is holding up,” she said.

    The Australian dollar was down 0.2 percent at $0.7536, after falling as low as $0.7529 earlier, its deepest nadir since mid-June.

    Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Nov. 7 policy meeting showed it harboured “considerable uncertainty” about how quickly wages growth and inflation might pick up.

    After that meeting, the RBA trimmed its forecasts for core inflation to below its long-term 2-3 percent target band for another two years.

    Bitcoin slipped nearly 4 percent on Tuesday after notching a fresh record high of $8,253 .


    Right now we definitely should talk on EUR. But first - German's President will make statement at 13:00 GMT today. This will be decisive moment for market. Hardly we will get any volatility until this will happen. Another conclusion - there is no big sense in anticipation of statement's results.

    Looking at technical picture - bullish setup is still valid. We should understand that as political turmoil has come fast - it could go fast as well. Theoretically EUR could drop back to neckline, but bullish setup still will be valid, as reverse H&S pattern still could be formed. In general, bullish setup will be valid until market stands above 1.1550 lows. Besides, I suspect that return back to bearish scenario currently is not very probable. Fundamental background mostly supports EUR appreciation. Definitely in one or other way but government will be formed. So, taking bet against fundamentals is not very attractive decision.
    eur_d_21_11_17.

    On 4-hour chart market has re-tested our disrespected K-resistance area:
    eur_4h_21_11_17.

    Thus, I will not even try to predict what Steinmeier will say. Technically, situation still looks bullish. Market is stuck around K-support and Agreement. Price is forming wide flag pattern, which is continuation one. If somehow still EUR will drop below K-area - next target is 5/8 Fib support and Agreement, WPS1 and daily neckline.
    What we could do here? There are two major ways to trade. First is - wait for breakout and try to take position on retracement. Second - use stop entry orders around extreme points to take a position in a moment of breakout. If you still have longs - situation has not changed yet as market has not broken support, so you also could keep them. Or... sit on the hands, also not bad idea in current situation.
    Some more inputs we should get after Steinmeier speech. Currently technical picture is moderately bullish.
    eur_1h_21_11_17.
     
  9. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    Good morning

    (Reuters) - The dollar treaded water against its peers on Wednesday, capped as U.S. Treasury yields failed to rise despite increasing investor risk appetite in broader financial markets.

    The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 93.941.

    The index fell back from a one-week high of 94.165 overnight after a rally triggered earlier this week by a sagging euro stalled as long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued inching lower.

    The greenback was a shade lower at 112.280 yen, after slipping overnight from a high of 112.705.

    “The dollar should be getting more of a lift against the yen in this ‘risk on’ environment. But what is taking precedence is the adjustment of positions before the Thanksgiving and year-end holidays by participants, resulting in the covering of yen shorts,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

    Wall Street shares rose yet again to record highs on Tuesday, while Japan’s Nikkei climbed back towards 26-year peaks.

    The ongoing flattening of the Treasury yield curve, which has capped long-term yields, is a further drag on the dollar, Daiwa’s Ishizuki said.

    The U.S. yield curve flattened to its lowest in a decade on Tuesday, as investors price in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates while the Treasury is seen increasing short-dated debt issuance. At the same time low inflation and global demand for yield has supported longer-dated debt.

    Another factor seen supporting the Japanese yen on a broader level was its recent gains against the euro.

    The common currency slumped against its peers at the start of the week as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s failure to form a three-way “Jamaica coalition” government clouded the country’s political outlook.

    “Cross yen pairs recently enjoyed a good run higher. Of these pairs, euro/yen holds a dominant position,” said Koji Fukaya, president at FPG Securities in Tokyo.

    “Selling of the euro against the yen gathered momentum as traditional profit-taking before Thanksgiving was joined by market participants dissolving euro longs on the German political news.”

    The currency market showed little response to comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who said late on Tuesday the central bank is “reasonably close” to its goals and should keep gradually raising U.S. interest rates to avoid the dual pitfalls of letting inflation drift below target for too long and driving unemployment down too far.


    Next in focus was the minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the session, to be evaluated for any new indications that an interest rate hike is likely in December.

    The euro was steady at $1.1737 after crawling away from a one-week low of $1.1712 brushed overnight on the political impasse in Germany.

    The Australian dollar was 0.1 percent lower at $0.7568 after slipping to a five-month trough of $0.7532 overnight on dovish-sounding Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes.

    The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.6829 after digesting a surprise increase in October domestic milk production. New Zealand is a top dairy exporter and factors that are considered negative for milk prices tend to hurt the kiwi.


    So, let's update our view on EUR, but today we will take a look at it through the prism of DXY. Dollar Index now shows situation with better clarity.
    on 4-hour DXY chart price has formed perfect "222" Sell pattern that has been triggered yesterday. Right at top we have bearish reversal candle. It means that downside action (i.e. upside action on EUR) could start right from current level:
    dxy_4h_22_11_17.

    In general, on EUR we expect to get reverse H&S pattern with target around at least 1.20-1.25. But still, we have to be ready for possible upside action not from current level, but slightly lower - from daily neckline, where previous lows stand:
    eur_4h_22_11_17.

    It means that you should foresee stop somewhere below this level, or be ready to re-enter again, if EUR will not go up right from here.

    Still, currently market shows bullish signs as well. Our hourly AB=CD finally has been completed yesterday. EUR has not touched lower border of the flag and turned up. Now it is forming minor H&S pattern and small bullish grabber. Final confirmation of upside action will happen by breakout of the flag:
    eur_1h_22_11_17.

    That's being said - chances on immedatiate upside action are not bad, but be ready that another leg down still could happen, and adjust your trading plan accordingly.
     
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  10. vonsleek

    vonsleek Recruit

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    You are truly a Genius at what you do brother. Your analyses have always proved invaluable. Keep up the good humanitarian work brother
     
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