Fundamental and technical analysis from Fort Financial Services

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

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[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD lost some ground after the long positions profit taking. The final decision on Greece has not adopted yet and traders are in no hurry to long.

The GBP/USD fell as well amid the UK government bonds yields falling in relation to their counterparts from the US and Germany.

The pair USD/JPY grew which caused the carry trade transactions opening.

They reported that the Greece government has submitted new proposals that include significant concessions related to the deficit reduction and pension reform. That news supported the euro as prompted the market to believe that the negotiations with the Athens creditors can get the ball rolling and finish with positive solutions. There were also reports on the euro side that the European Central Bank increased the emergency funding amount to the Greece banks. However, the warnings from the euro area members that the immediate breakthrough in the negotiation is unlikely to happen soon changed the investors' sentiment.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview
The final decision on "Greek debt" has not been accepted, however, everybody hopes that a positive decision will be made in the second half of the week as Athens has proposed a new plan to reduce costs.

Markit Economics published the business activity indices in the France and Germany manufacturing sectors.

Buyers have not been able to break through and stay above the strong resistance level of 1.1450. The approach to the resistance level of 1.1450 was followed by a rebound and a pulse break of the support level 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The yield on UK 10-year government bonds decreased toward their taxes in the US and Germany, which is a negative factor for the British currency. It is worth mentioning the UK and Germany bonds yields decrease which helps the cross-rate EUR/GBP to grow that in its turn puts pressure on the pound.

The strong support of 1.5775 break down happened on low volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders positively reacted to the possible agreement between Greece and the creditors. This factor may increase the number of carry trade transactions which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Traders expect the positive May USA durable goods which could support the demand for the dollar.

There was formed the two-day correction from the strong support level of 122.40. The correction target is the mark 123.50 that has been worked out.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD was trading in a flat above the support level of 1.1150. Traders took a pause after euro strong sales in spite of the debt market negative trend.

The GBP/USD lost its ground after the negative government bonds yields expansion in the UK and the US. However the pair slightly increased at the end of the day.

The USD/JPY has set a new 5-day high of 124.38, after which traders decided to take some profits on long positions as a result the market made a technical correction to 123.50.

Rumors that Greece may again return to the EU leaving discussion led to a renewed euro decrease. In addition, the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras confirmed that the creditors rejected the list of proposals recently submitted by Athens.

The number of the USA unemployed who applied for unemployment compensation came to 271 000 with 273 000 forecasted. The previous record was 267 000.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro zone will not please market participants with interesting macroeconomic statistics. The USA and Germany 10-year government bonds yields negative differential again expanded and already reached the maximum level over the past 3 weeks.

The United States published the initial jobless claims report. The data showed a growth from 267 000 up to 271 000. The forecast was 273 000.

The downward trend turned to a short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1260 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1450.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Three trading days has shown the pound's weakness, the current levels look attractive for the medium-term investors who are counting on the upward trend continuation. However, the debt market dynamics shows a mixed background - the British 10-year Treasury bonds profitability has been lowering against the US Treasuries and is growing to German bonds.

The Pound continued its downward correction relative to the US dollar. After three days of a corrective decline the pair broke the strong support level of 1.5775 and tested the level of 1.5670. Then the pair slightly corrected upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was a predominance of bearish sentiment and long positions profit taking in the US and the Japanese stock market. Investors closed their carry trade transactions which creates a demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

In this connection, we expect the price lowering. Still the bulls can take the initiative in their hands against the background of positive dynamics in the debt market. The level of 123.50 breakthrough served as a downward reversal correction signal.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 123.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 122.40 and 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The sentiment against the "greenback" were supported with hope that Greece will solve all debt issues. The fact that the Greeks once again failed to reach agreement with the creditors supported the dollar. The latest US Q1 GDP estimate supported the dollar as well.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trading was quite enough last week. The EUR/USD was mostly in a flat above the support level of 1.1150. Investors are waiting how the Greece situation will be solved and in no hurry to open new positions. By the end of the trades the support level of 1.1150 was tested and the pair decreased.

The GBP/USD decreased after of the cross-rate EUR/GBP falling which supported the demand for the British currency. However, in general, the pound is consolidating.

The USD/JPY has lost ground amid the US and Japanese market shares downward trend. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased amid the US economic data

Meanwhile, market sentiment remained under pressure as talks between Greece and its creditors broke down again on Thursday. Greece has critical little time to find money before the impending deadline (30 June), we remind you that Greece has to pay loans in the amount of 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary fond. If Greece misses the payment, it may declare a default which could cause its going out from the euro zone.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We just highlight the money supply changes report among the published macroeconomic releases. The ECB QE is in full swing, we expect money supply aggregate M3 increase . Still not an inflation problem is on agenda but Greek with its default menace. Decision on "Greek debt" is still pending, some analyst say that the parties may agree as early as this week.

The downward trend stopped at the support level of 1.1150 and got into a three-day consolidation. The current price is trading at levels ranged 1.1260 - 1.1150

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1150, 1.1050.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Current levels are attractive for medium traders who believe in the upward trend continuation, however, the debt market does not show any sign of this, the signal to long is weak.

Sellers failed to break below the strong support level of 1.5670. The reverse return to has led to a growth to the level of 1.5775 with a consolidation below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5775 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5670, 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan published a unit of important macroeconomic statistics where we highlight the inflation and the household expenditure. Growing the 10-year Japanese government bonds yields, combined with a reduction in unemployment and moderate wage growth pointed to the yield data within or slightly better than the median forecasts.

The correction movement came close to the resistance level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 124.30. After breaking 124.30 the buyers may go to 125.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

A driver is still the talks on Greece, where the parties can not reach an agreement. The new proposals are not accepted by the Athens' creditors, the parts keeps to search for a consensus. In these circumstances investors do not rush to trade and actually ignore the economic data.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Greek crisis provoked a sharp euro decline on Monday, during the Asian session.

The German investors expect the euro and European bonds to experience a significant pressure. They believe that the market preference will be given to safe-haven assets such as the Germany government bonds, as well as the gold.

Last week, the EUR/USD has grown a bit after the positive US consumer confidence release from the Michigan University. On Monday, the pair fell in the light of Greek news. The euro fell yesterday in the first part of the day amid the Greek issue still the tool was able to recover, thanks to the Swiss regulator interventions.

The GBP/USD finished trades in the negative area, still the cross-rate EUR/GBP decrease did not allow the British pound to weaken significantly. The gap was closed by the end of the trades.

The pair USD/JPY showed growth on the demand for risky assets. "Bulls" are returning in the hope of a Greece positive decision. However the pair decreased on the yesterday’s trades.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The situation around Greece tense to the limit. Last Saturday the Greece Prime Minister Tsipras met with the international creditors, the meeting was unsuccessful, no agreement was reached out. Now all the attention is on 5th of July, when Greece shall hold a popular referendum on the country's withdrawal from the debt crisis.

Most of the previous week, the price stayed above the support level of 1.1150. All attempts to break below were accompanied by a short-term rebound. The new week has allowed sellers to break below the strong support level of 1.1150 using the price gap (the gap). The support level of 1.1050 was also broken. The SNB intervention supported the euro. The pair managed to recover the loss and returned to 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers closed the gap. We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.1150, 1.1050.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

There has not been published anything interesting from the United Kingdom and the United States macroeconomic statistics and therefore we should pay attention to the debt market dynamics. The bond market is in the flat - the 10-year UK government bonds yield slightly fluctuated to their counterparts from the US and Germany.

The pound is unlike the euro opened at the previous week closing price. Then it was a gap but not as strong as in the pair EUR/USD. This trade is above the strong support level of 1.5670, which has been constrained sellers four days.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the May retail sales and industrial production releases. The increase in household spending amid rising employment and wages allows us to hope that we will get to a positive retail sector sales report.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 122.40 soon. The way to the mark of 121.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

A. Merkel said that the debate about Greece are to hold in the Bundestag on Wednesday. The Greek 10-year government bonds yield reached a level of 15%, pointing to the high economic risks that is a negative factor for the euro. On Monday, the EUR/USD began trading with a gap in the area of 1.1009, then it showed a growth above the 12 figure amid rumors of a possible agreement between Athens and the creditors. The growth was permanent and the pair fell by the end of Tuesday.

The GBP / USD fell amid the cross-rate EUR/GBP growth. The first quarter UK GDP increased by 0.4% q/q and 2.9% y/y.

The pair USD/JPY closed the day in the "red zone". Traders ran from risky assets to the "safe yen."

The United States can please us with positive macroeconomic statistics. Last Friday, the Michigan University reported about the consumer confidence maximum level over the past 5 months. Еhe positive trend was confirmed by the Conference Board (the data showed a growth from 94.6 to 101.4) - we noted demand for the US dollar.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is more than closed the Monday gap, however, a further upward trend is not so obvious as it seems. The inflation Weak data in Germany can not be expected to yield the eurozone CPI positive data. The "Greek debt" issue has not completely resolved yet and there is also a possibility of negative surprises. Athens will not be able to repay the debt of 1.55 billion, still traders agree that the IMF and the international rating agencies will not consider this step as a default. The consumer price index grew during the first summer month increased by 0.2% per annum.

The price closed the price gap of more than 200 points. The buyers did not stop raising rates even higher by 100 points. There was the resistance 1.1150 breakthrough and the level of 1.1260 testing on the increased volume. Then it were a rebound to the 1.1150 and its breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance level of 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Statistics National Office has published the UK balance of payments and the first quarter GDP. The negative "black gold" trend did not support bullish sentiment in the pair GBP/USD. The first quarter UK GDP increased by 0.4% q/q and 2.9% y/y.

The downward correction from 1.5925 stalled at the strong support level of 1.5690.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.5670, 1.5550. The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment dominated at the market. Instability around Greece have a negative impact on the global stock markets, which favored to the carry trade deals closing and lead to a demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. There were two sectors outsiders in the US stock market: the financial and high-tech ones which indicates a very low "risk appetite".

The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 121.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 120.40 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker sent to Greece the details of a new agreement with creditors. According to Juncker, if the Greeks rejects the proposal in the referendum, it will mean that they will vote for the eurozone exit. The ECB, Benoit Ker said that Greece's exit from the Eurozone can not be excluded now.

The EUR/USD decreased after the June positive US consumer confidence release. The Conference Board index came to the level of 101.4, indicating increased consumer activity.

The pair GBP/USD finished trading in the "red zone". The British currency was under pressure due to lower government bonds yields.

The USD/JPY fell against the demand for safe assets due to the situation around Greece. However the pair increased by the end of the day.

We shall pay attention to the United States statistics: the ADP US employment and business activity in the manufacturing sector. In the first two months of the second quarter, the US economy is steadily creating more than 200 thousand new jobs, indicating that the output data will be within the median forecasts. During June, the jobs number in the private sector amounted to 237 thousand. The forecast was 220 thousands. The business production activity showed 53.5 when the forecast was 53.2.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The eurozone inflation release has not caused a strong reaction at the market. The CPI dropped to the level of 0.2% year on year, which coincided with the investors' expectations. The government bonds yields differential in Greece and Germany expands, indicating a high risk of "Greek issue". As it became known Greece declared default.

After a sharp jerk up 300 points the price is slowly correcting downwards. The corrective weakness allowed sellers to break and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.1150.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050, 1.0925. The buyers need to break above 1.1150 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.1260, 1.1450 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We should pay attention to the Markit Economics PMI index in the production sphere: the index fell to 51.4 from 51.9 in June. You should also pay attention to the US ADP employment statistics and the business activity in the manufacturing sector. The data showed 237 000 and 53.5. The data came out slightly better then forecasted medians.

After the sixth day of the downward correction the pair is consolidating above the strong support level of 1.5670. Then the broke this level down.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen show and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5460 and 1.5390

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan released the Tankan economic survey which is traditionally closely monitored both by economists and market traders. According to Tankan surveys during the second quarter - the index for large manufacturers 15 (12 expected), previously 12, this is the first index increase for the first three quarters, the value has been the highest since March 2014. The uncertainty around Greece continues to provide negative impact on risky assets.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD fell after the US positive business climate report in the manufacturing sector. The index has risen to its highest level in the past five months, indicating to the USA economic growth acceleration. The pair slightly increased by the end of the day.

The GBP/USD ends two trading days in a row at "minor note." The British currency came under a wave of sales after the negative UK manufacturing sector PMI publication. The long-term interest rates growth has a negative impact on the mortgage market. The mortgage loans approved applications number decreased in May by 3.1 thousand, while the mortgage is the main growth driver in the construction sector.

The pair USD/JPY fell amid the risky assets demand. However the pair decreased amid the dollar weakness.

The dollar consolidated when investor strengthened in the opinion that the Fed will raise the interest rates before the end of this year. The ADP National Employment Report showed that the June new jobs number in the US private sector was 237,000 vs. the forecast - 218,000.

We got the ambiguous statistics from the USA: on the one hand the unemployment fell from 5.5 to 5.3%. The initial jobless claims number rose by 10,000, reaching 281,000. The NFP amounted 223,000, the previous index was above 250,000.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Every day we get a lot of conflicting information about the situation with the "Greek debt." Every day the market is got excited by various rumors, still Greece held a popular referendum on July 5 and parties again sit down at the negotiating table on 6 July. Until that time, we should not pay attention to the publication.

Besides the Greek debt issue another worth mentioning this week event was the June USA NFP. The NFP showed 223K, with previous 250K. The unemployment fell from 5.5% to 5.3. The Initial Jobless Claims is 281000 versus previous 271000. This Friday the US markets are closed amid the Independence Day.

The euro has been down against the US dollar after a sharp pulse up to 300 points аor three days. The price decrease occurs at low volumes and is aimed to break the level of 1.1050. But the price rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Further on we expect the fall towards 1.1050 and 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI manufacturing sphere fell to the lowest level since May 2014, which calls into question the high economic growth. Moreover, the spread indicators UK/US widened in favor of the latter by the end of June, indicating that a high USA economic growth will provide support to the US currency.

Sellers reduced the price down amid the low volumes. There is consolidation between the support level of 1.5550 and the resistance level of 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5670 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5550, 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen has ignored the positive Tankan economic survey which indicates at the strong buyers presence in the market. The manufacturing sector business climate report from the ISM points to the USA economic growth acceleration that will contribute to the rumors re-emergence about the Fed rate hike in September.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the buyers may go to 124.30.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell rapidly against the dollar this level. The dollar consolidated when traders believed in fact that the Fed will raise the interest rates before the end of this year. However the franc strengthened on the yesterday’s trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9725.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The market was relatively quiet at the end of last week - the major pairs were traded in narrow ranges, despite the US labor market publication which traditionally caused the volatility surge. The labor market report as a whole is positive - the unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the Non-Farm figure was 223 thousand. It is slightly worse than the median forecast, still the report is above 200 thousand. The average earnings index disappointed traders with the data worse than the consensus forecast, which will restrain the inflation growth.

Investors continue to monitor the situation with Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras proposed a compromise to extent the financial assistance program. Meanwhile, Tsipras continued to call on the citizens to vote against the proposed measures by creditors.

The EUR/USD increased and the pair GBP/USD fell at the end of the week. The pair USD/JPY fell amid the risky assets demand.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US labor market release as a whole can be considered positive. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.3%, the lowest level since May 2008. In the private sector created more than 200 thousand. new jobs during the second quarter, indicating a strong economic growth.

The May retail sales index in the euro zone increased by 0.2%. The forecasted growth was 0.1%.

The most important euro/dollar event is new negotiations between Athens and the creditors are held on July 6, immediately after the national referendum.

The support level of 1.1050 stopped the euro decrease in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1050 soon. After this level breakthrough down the way to the supports 1.0925, 1.0790 will be opened.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the service sector business climate publication. This indicator is one of the leading ones. The index rose to 58.5 from 56.5. The bond market dynamics indicates the bearish sentiment predominance - the British bonds yields decrease relative to the US in Germany bonds.

The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.5670.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

If traders are positive to the US dollar - we expect the demand for the dollar. However, the 2-year Treasury bonds decline after weak June average earnings indicates the expectations decrease about imminent monetary policy tightening by the Fed and this factor is negative for the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 122.40, 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

When the market has received a signal from the European authorities that they will continue any negotiations with Greece only after the referendum, investors have focused entirely on the fundamental news.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Mark Miller (FortFS)]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.07.2015

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs were in the narrow ranges. Monday the pair EUR/USD opened with a gap downwards, but it had increased. However, it lost its positions by the end of the day. We have received the May euro zone sales positive data. The index rose by 0.2% that indicates the consumer spending growth and a positive factor for the economy.

The euro was declining the whole day in response to the Greece referendum results which further increases the full-scale default likelihood in the country and its exit from the euro zone. Greeks convincingly voted "no" to the EU creditors' offer and with only 38.69% of the Greeks having supported the bailout offer.

The pair GBP/USD had decreased amid the UK bond yields reduction because of the oil market sales. Nevertheless the pound grew by the end of the day

By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the bearish sentiment on the global equity markets. Investors closed their positions after the Greece referendum.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

On Monday the trades were opened with a gap. We saw the increased volatility during the day. Greece was the main newsmaker yesterday. Athens and the creditors returned to the negotiating table and that
event has defined the euro/dollar dynamics in the short term. Now it can be concluded that the parties will reach a compromise.

The two-week downward trend encountered the resistance at the level of 1.1050. The short-term trend line testing and breakthrough was amid the low volumes and was followed by the rebound upwards. The gap (the price gap) gives an additional signal towards the prices growth. The gap as covered.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0925, 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The market was opened with a gap amid the Greece national referendum results, but the gap size was smaller than in the pair EUR/USD. The UK service sector business activity release came out positive on Friday, but if we look at the quarter dynamics, there we can see a smooth slowdown. In this regard, the Bank of England forecasts about the high economic growth in the second quarter can be called into question.

The British pound has been declining against the US dollar for the second week. The pair slightly corrected by the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5550 and 1.5460 soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The course of the trades was determined by the global stock markets sentiments. In case of the "Greek debt" positive decision - the stock markets will show an upward trend and the pair dollar/yen will enjoy a steady demand amid the carry trade transactions opening. Otherwise, we expect the sales waves amid the carry trade transactions closure and demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 122.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.