Gold Daily Video, 23 January 2017

[Sive Morten]

Good morning,

we have big plans on daily gold in perspectives, but while patterns that we're looking for have not been formed yet - we will discuss some tactical issues:





The technical portion of Sive's analysis owes a great deal to Joe DiNapoli's methods, and uses a number of Joe's proprietary indicators. Please note that Sive's analysis is his own view of the market and is not endorsed by Joe DiNapoli or any related companies.

 

[Brett Reynolds]

I would bet on Double Bottom and W&R of 1050 lows...sometime..in 2017! Right.!?

 

[Sive Morten]

I would bet on Double Bottom and W&R of 1050 lows...sometime..in 2017! Right.!?

Yep, if gold will drop there. But right now I'm more concerned of current rally...

 

[leo4fx]

SA has an interesting article pointing out the crowed trade where hedge funds and CTAs are massively short Treasuries
A look on the chart displays a BIG disconnect with past years...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4038893-gold-insights-single-important-chart-gold-investors-today

 

[leo4fx]

So as i came to understand it:
You would short T-Notes when you expect the yields of the SP500 & Blue chips to raise due to the tax cuts that the Donald Trump promised
To pay for these tax cuts extra money needs to be printed I guess.
Shorting these T-notes would have brought dollars in the system and possibly holding the dollar index at the current level. These extra dollars would be allocated in higher yielding assets in the market.
Scenario 1 :
No tax-cut is coming and these trades have to be reversed
Dollars index goes up & deflation

Scenario 2:
To pay for the tax cut extra money is brought into the system
No rate increase possibly QE infinity dollar down & goldprice up

Please comment on these assumptions & conclusions